regional growth strategy work session...regional growth strategy work plan dseis release feb 2019...
TRANSCRIPT
September 6, 2018
Regional Growth Strategy Work SessionGrowth Management Policy Board
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Overview
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• Recap June GMPB work session
• Objectives and outcomes
• Regional geographies
• Growth scenarios
• Breakout Discussion: transit-oriented development goals and jobs-housing balance
• Next steps
Scenarios and geographies
Summer 2018
Draft V2050 release
Summer 2019
GMPB extended meeting
June 7, 2018
• Background• Growth strategy performance• Relationship to targets• Growth strategy objectives• Regional geographies
Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan
DSEIS releaseFeb 2019
GMPB extended meeting
Sept 6, 2018
GMPB extended meeting
Nov 1, 2018
…Refine
scenarios/altsFall 2018
3
Scenarios and geographies
Summer 2018
Draft V2050 release
Summer 2019
GMPB extended meeting
June 7, 2018
Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan
DSEIS releaseFeb 2019
GMPB extended meeting
Sept 6, 2018
GMPB extended meeting
Nov 1, 2018
…Refine
scenarios/altsFall 2018
• Develop one or more growth scenarios for early evaluation
• Continue refinement after Sept 2018 GMPB discussion
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Scenarios and geographies
Summer 2018
Draft V2050 release
Summer 2019
GMPB extended meeting
June 7, 2018
Regional Growth Strategy Work Plan
DSEIS releaseFeb 2019
GMPB extended meeting
Sept 6, 2018
GMPB extended meeting
Nov 1, 2018
…Refine
scenarios/altsFall 2018
• Nov 2018 GMPB: Define alternatives – “no action” plus modified growth strategy alternative(s) for environmental review
• (accelerated compared to Feb version of work plan)
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2050 Forecast
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→ 1.8 million more people and 1.2 million more jobs by 2050
Regional Growth Strategy
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• Aspirational, but achievable
• Growth focused in Urban Growth Areas, cities, centers
• Move towards jobs/housing balance
• Preserves and supports rural and resource lands
• Environmental, economic, transportation benefits
• Numeric guidance for targets
• Land use & transportation connection
VISION 2040 – Regional Geographies Map
Growth Strategy Objectives
• Protect natural environment & resource lands
• Focus growth within Urban Growth Areas, cities, and centers
• Keep rural areas rural
• Improve balance of jobs and housing across region
• Achieve growth pattern that is efficient to serve with infrastructure
• Minimize emissions that affect climate
• Tool to implement VISION 2040 policy objectives
VISION 2040 Objectives - Recap
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GMPB June Discussion
• General support for the existing objectives
• Interest in being more specific about desired outcomes
• Housing was a major theme, including affordable housing and balancing housing needs and incomes
• Objectives should be measurable
• Other topics identified:
o TOD opportunities, health and equity, innovation and change, etc.
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Regional Staff Committee June-July Discussion• Protect, restore, and enhance environmental features and habitats
• Facilitate access to different types of jobs & housing throughout region
• Maintain industrial lands and freight movement
• Emphasize leveraging major transit and infrastructure investments
• Support public health
• Create a region of centers
• Address social equity and displacement11
• Maintain stable urban growth areas
• Focus the great majority of new population and employment within urban growth areas
• Maintain a variety of community types, densities, and sizes
• Achieve a better balance of jobs and housing across the region
RGS Objectives –Physical Characteristics
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RGS Objectives –Physical Characteristics• Within urban growth areas, focus growth in cities
• Within cities, create and support centers to serve as concentrations of jobs, housing, services, and other activities
• Build transit-oriented development around planned infrastructure
• Use existing infrastructure and new investments efficiently
• Climate
• Community & Culture
• Economy
• Environment
• Health
• Housing
• Innovation
Outcomes
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• Mobility and Connectivity
• Natural Resources
• Public Facilities & Services
• Resilience
• Rural Areas
• Social Equity
Regional Geographies
Regional Growth Strategy Components
Regional Geographies.Groupings of places within the Regional Growth Strategy
Growth Scenarios. Concepts for how growth should be assigned. Some scenarios may become SEPA alternatives.
Screening Factors. Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios.
Regional Geographies
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Metropolitan Cities Core Cities Larger Cities
Largest cities in each county: Seattle, Bellevue, Everett, Tacoma and Bremerton
All other cities with Regional Growth Centers
Cities with more than 22,500 combined jobs & population
Regional Geographies
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Small Cities Rural
Resource LandsUnincorporated Urban
Cities with less than 22,500 combined jobs & population
Designated agricultural, forest, & mineral lands
Unincorporated areas located within the Urban Growth Area
Other areas located outside the Urban Growth Area
Regional Geographies
Scoping Comments:
• Consider changes to Small, Larger, Urban Unincorporated
• Address key differences in transit + infrastructure
• Address Major Military Installations
VISION 2040 – Regional Geographies Map
Regional GeographiesProposal:
• Reaffirm focus on jurisdictions with designated regional centers
• Differentiate current Small and Larger cities by existing and planned high-capacity transit
– Includes light rail, bus rapid transit, commuter rail, ferry & streetcar
• Identify unincorporated urban areas with high-quality transit service
• Recognize Major Military Installations
2020
Proposed Regional Geographies Map
Proposed Regional Geographies
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Current Proposed
Metropolitan Cities Metropolitan Cities
Core Cities Core Cities
Larger Cities High Capacity Transit Communities
Small Cities Cities and Towns
Urban Unincorporated Areas Urban Unincorporated Areas
Rural Rural
Resource Resource
Major Military Installations
Discussion Questions
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• Does the board have any additional comments on the proposed regional geographies?
• Should these draft changes be used as PSRC develops new growth alternatives for VISION 2050?
Growth Scenarios
Performance Overall
• Long range, big picture – trends are moving towards Regional Growth Strategy
o More growth in urban areas, cities and centers
o Less growth in rural and resource areas
• Metro cities still catching up; unincorporated urban continue to grow faster than RGS
• County-level jobs/housing balance better than anticipated; still long-term challenge
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Preliminary Growth Scenarios
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• Stay the Course. Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050
• Forward from 2017. Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base
• Dispersed Urban Growth. Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area
• Transit Focused Growth. Distributes more growth around high capacity transit
Population Change by Proposed ScenariosTotal Population Change: 1.8 million new people by 2050
VISION 2040 – Stay the CourseExtends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050
GeographyAmount of
Regional GrowthShare of
Regional Growth
Metropolitan Cities 607,000 35%
Core Cities 488,000 28%
Transit Communities 307,000 17%
Cities & Towns 174,000 10%
Urban Unincorporated 85,000 5%
Rural 95,000 5%
Population Change: 2017 to 2050
Scenario 1: Forward from 2017
GeographyShare of
Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course
Metropolitan Cities 33% -24,000
Core Cities 27% -11,000
Transit Communities 17% -10,000
Cities & Towns 10% 9,000
Urban Unincorporated 6% 27,000
Rural 6% 9,000
Population Change: 2017 to 2050
Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base
Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area
GeographyShare of
Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course
Metropolitan Cities 15% -344,000
Core Cities 15% -225,000
Transit Communities 20% 44,000
Cities & Towns 25% 265,000
Urban Unincorporated 20% 266,000
Rural 5% -7,000
Population Change: 2017 to 2050
Scenario 2: Dispersed Urban Growth
GeographyShare of
Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course
Metropolitan Cities 38% 58,000
Core Cities 33% 85,000
Transit Communities 17% -3,000
Cities & Towns 6% -68,000
Urban Unincorporated 4% -13,000
Rural 2% -60,000
Population Change: 2017 to 2050
Scenario 3: Transit Focused GrowthDistributes more growth around high capacity transit
Employment Change by Proposed ScenarioTotal Employment Change: 1.2 million new jobs by 2050
VISION 2040 – Stay the CourseExtends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050
GeographyRegional Growth
by GeographyShare of
Regional Growth
Metropolitan Cities 509,000 44%
Core Cities 413,000 36%
Transit Communities 126,000 11%
Cities & Towns 65,000 6%
Urban Unincorporated 30,000 3%
Rural 14,000 1%
Employment Change: 2017 to 2050
Scenario 1: Forward from 2017
GeographyShare of
Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course
Metropolitan Cities 43% -12,000
Core Cities 35% -7,000
Transit Communities 11% -2,000
Cities & Towns 6% 5,000
Urban Unincorporated 3% 5,000
Rural 2% 11,000
Employment Change: 2017 to 2050
Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base
GeographyShare of
Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course
Metropolitan Cities 23% -243,000
Core Cities 20% -181,000
Transit Communities 20% 106,000
Cities & Towns 20% 167,000
Urban Unincorporated 15% 144,000
Rural 2% 9,000
Employment Change: 2017 to 2050
Scenario 2: Dispersed Urban GrowthDistributes growth broadly across the urban growth area
Distributes more growth around high capacity transit
GeographyShare of
Regional GrowthDifference from Stay the Course
Metropolitan Cities 44% 1,000
Core Cities 37% 18,000
Transit Communities 12% 11,000
Cities & Towns 4% -19,000
Urban Unincorporated 2% -7,000
Rural 1% -3,000
Employment Change: 2017 to 2050
Scenario 3: Transit Focused Growth
Preliminary Round 1 Screening Factors
Short list of measures to evaluate growth scenarios
Mobility. Delay, transit ridership, mode share
Growth Near Transit. New people and jobs near transit [forthcoming]
Housing Choice. Growth at high, medium & low densities
Access to Opportunity. Growth in moderate to high opportunity areas
Jobs-Housing Balance. Ratio by county and subarea
Environment. Greenhouse gas emissions [forthcoming]
Screening Factors
PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings
Stay the Course
Forward from 2017
Dispersed Urban Growth
Transit Focused Growth
SOV Mode Share – All Trips 35% - +4% -2%
Delay per Person 47 +1% +13% +2%
Annual Transit Boardings 470,000,000 +4% - 6% +14%
Delay per Truck 108 - +5% -
Mobility
PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings
Stay the Course
Forward from 2017
Dispersed Urban
Growth
Transit Focused Growth
% Lower Density (single family) 54% + 1% + 7% - 5%
% Medium (duplex, triplex, low-rise) 18% - - -
% High Density (larger apt, condo bldgs) 28% - 1% - 7% + 5%
Stay the Course
Forward from 2017
Dispersed Urban Growth
Transit Focused Growth
% Very Low and Low Opportunity 48% - 4% - 9% - 1%
% Moderate, High and Very High
Opportunity52% + 4% + 9% + 1%
Housing Choice
Access to Opportunity
PRELIMINARY Scenario Summary Findings
Stay the Course
Forward from 2017
Dispersed Urban Growth
Transit Focused Growth
King County 1.26 -5% -4% -4%
Kitsap County 0.65 14% 12% 14%
Pierce County 0.76 2% 3% 1%
Snohomish County 0.77 - -1% 1%
Jobs-Housing Balance
Policy Questions
Jobs-Housing Balance
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To improve jobs-housing balance, VISION 2040:• Increased share of residential growth planned for King
County• Increased share of employment growth planned for
Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties
2000-40 2000-40
Pop V2040 RGS Pop
% Shares Policy % Shares
(SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS)
King County 39% + 3% 42%
Kitsap County 8% + 1% 9%
Pierce County 25% - 2% 23%
Snohomish County 28% - 2% 26%
Region Total 100% 100%
Policy Adjustment - Population
2000-40 2000-40
Emp V2040 RGS Emp
% Shares Policy % Shares
(SAF06) Adjustment (V2040 RGS)
King County 62% - 5% 57%
Kitsap County 4% + 1% 5%
Pierce County 15% + 2% 17%
Snohomish County 18% + 2% 20%
Region Total 100% 100%
Policy Adjustment - Employment
Jobs-Housing Balance
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Does the board want to consider policy-oriented adjustments to the county shares to promote a different balance of population and employment?
County Population Shares in VISION 2040
Baseline 2017-50 Population Share
King 42% 50%
Kitsap 9% 5%
Pierce 23% 21%
Snohomish 26% 24%
County Employment Shares in VISION 2040
Baseline 2017-50 Employment Share
King 57% 64%
Kitsap 5% 4%
Pierce 17% 15%
Snohomish 20% 17%
Growth Near Transit
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Growing Transit Communities: 25% of housing and 35% of employment growth in light rail corridors
Should we consider a specific goal for growth in transit station areas? If yes, how aggressive should that goal be?
Current ConditionsStay the Course
2050
Population 19% 33%
Employment 47% 58%
Work Session - Discussion Questions
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• Jobs-Housing Balance: Does the board want to consider policy-oriented adjustments to the county shares to promote a different balance of population and employment?
• Transit: Should we consider a specific goal for growth in transit station areas? If yes, how aggressive should that goal be?
Growth Management Policy Board Work Session
Regional Growth Strategy
11:15 am .……. Breakout sessions
12:00 pm .……. Break
12:15 pm .……. Summary of Breakout Sessions, continue discussion
Meeting video will resume at about 12:15 pm
Preliminary Growth Scenarios
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• Stay the Course.• Extends VISION 2040 growth assumptions to 2050
• Forward from 2017. • Applies VISION 2040 growth assumptions to a 2017 base
• Dispersed Urban Growth. • Distributes growth broadly across urban growth area
• Transit Focused Growth. • Distributes more growth around high capacity transit
Discussion Questions
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• Should staff continue to develop these concepts as potential environmental analysis alternatives, including any adjustments directed by the board?
• Should any of the scenarios be removed from consideration at this time?
Next Steps
• Continue discussion & development with committeeso Discuss scenario concepts with staff committees
o Additional modeling
• Background paper (September 2018)
o Summarize background & performance data on the Regional Growth Strategy
• November GMPB – finalize alternatives for environmental review
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Thank you
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