regional consultation on climate services at the national ... 2014.pdf · antalya - turkey 21 –...
TRANSCRIPT
Antalya - Turkey
21 – 22 November, 2014
Regional Consultation on Climate
Services at the National Level for
South East Europe
Agriculture
Prof. Ordan Chukaliev, Ph.D.
Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food
University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Skopje
All groups need different services
but
All of them need clearly targeted
information according their needs
Decision maker
• Long term forecast for policy planning
• Early season crop yield forecasting
• Sezonal forecasts
• Etc (HELP!!!!!)
But is there meaning of this expression:
“in 10 years temperature will increase for 0,75oC and rainfall will
decrease for 8%”
They understand:
“the maize yield will decrease for 20% and national production will drop
for XXXX.”
Or better
“national economy will lost XXX EUR”
Researchers
They need row data.
“Give me your data and let me run my
models and analyses I need more
papers for keeping my position (or
getting better position)”
Producers - Farmers
• Seasonal forecasts
• 10-day forecast
• Comparison of LTA with present weather
• Comparison of previous year with this year
• Comparison of similar years
• Daily information
But
They need translated language:
Temperature accumulation since beginning of the season is higher by
20% than LTA means your crop shortened development and it will reach
flowering stage 10 days earlier
Or:
Rainfall accumulation in previous 10-days period was 70% lower than
LTA means drought you should irrigate (when and how much)
It was presented that there is not available
climate services in the country
We used JRC MARS tools, but they are not
available any more
We started to develop our “FARMERS
SUPPORT SYSTEMS”
Irrigation Scheduling (in Bitola and Resen)
Spraying information (Resen)
Serbia provide services (meteorological and
agrometeorological data including crop model – CropSyst).
The influence of the assumed weather conditions on
development and yield of corn in the rest of the upcoming
growing season is forecasted for three different weather
scenarios (dry and hot, normal, cool and wet) – defined for
the period 1 July – 31 August based on daily meteorological
data (1990 – 2005). Further, example of 10 days CropSyst
bulletin was presented. The bulletin is available on
www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/agrometeorologija.php
.
University of Novi Sad is developing tools for using
meteorological data for issuing recommendations for the
farmers
In Turkey TARBiL operate 1200 robo-stations and
more than 2500 phenological CT sampling fields.
They analyse more than 16 000 mobile field
samplings during the season. The data are
collected and processed in 250mx250m grid
resolution. The sampling frequency is every 10
minutes for agro-meteo data and every 30 minutes
for agro-pheno data. Despite sampled data, more
than 120 different parameters are computed and
stored. Their activities cover declaration data for
more than 2 millions of farmers that operate with
more than 28 million of parcels.
Moreover the use of AroMetShell in Turkey is based on 265
meteorological stations that provide daily data. Further,
these data are processed in decadal and monthly values.
The meteorological data are combined with RS data (NDVI).
The crop parameters are calculated based on
meteorological data. These data combined with soil data
and historical yield statistic as well as management data are
in statistical model. The final product is crop yield forecast
that are presented in bulletin on crop yield forecast.
The presentation gave lot of examples of use of
AgroMetShell in Turkey (maps, graphs and tables). In the
final stage, Bulletin on crop yield forecast issued by Central
Research institute on field crops was presented. The bulletin
on crop yield forecasting is accessible via
http://www.tarlabitkileri.gov.tr/gis_web/bultenler.html
In Hungary the yield forecasting activities started in
1980. During the period 1997-2003, it became
operational with support from JRC crop yield
forecasting activities for following crops : winter
wheat, winter barley, spring barley, grain maize,
green maize, sunflower, sugar beet and alfalfa. The
yield forecast is issued 4 times per a year.
In Romania the agrometeorological products for all
interested parties are available at
http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm/?lang=ro_ro (in
Romanian language.).
In Croatia the agrometeorological forecast is part of
the daily activities of the department and
agrometeorological forecast is regularly
broadcasted as part of an agricultural or morning
programme on TV and radio. In addition,
agrometeorological bulletin is regularly published
and accessible through http://meteo.hr (in
Croatian). The ECMWF products are regularly used
in preparation of meteograms for soil temperature
and moisture, evapotranspiration and other
parameters 9 days in advance.
Slovenian agrometeorological data flow:
Data for agrometeorological parameters are available on:
http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/period and data for
phenology are available on:
http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/pheno/. The
evapotranspiration estimated by Penman –Monteith method
is also available on:
http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/data/arhiv_etp/. The
soil water properties map is developed for Slovenia by
Biotechnical Faculty. TDR (Trime) measurements of soil
water content are recorded at three soil depths and
precipitation is managed within meteorological monitoring.
Ten-day bulletins during the vegetation period are produced
and available online on:
http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/recent/wb/currentye
ar/.
In Montenegro some of the agro meteorological data are
available through web site www.meteo.co.me (in
Montenegrin). Data that can be accessed are soil
temperature at standard depths, Agrometeorological
Bulletin, soil temperature at 5cm depth, phenology and Ten-
day Review.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina agrometeorological data are
available on FHMIBiH
(http://www.fhmzbih.gov.ba/latinica/AGRO/AG-pocetna.php)
and RHMIRS
(http://www.rhmzrs.com/метеорологија/агрометеорологија).
The products available on the web site are:
Agrometeorological 7-day report (prepared every Friday),
Agrometeorological 7-day forecast (prepared every Friday),
Soil temperature on two depths (5 and 20 cm), daily report for
several stations on WEB (07, 14, 21), Basic parameters for 10
days (tabular and graphical form) on WEB (Tavg, Tmax, Tmin,
Tmin on 5 cm, precipitation). In addition, the web services
offer and four DAY FORECAST for soil temperature and soil
evaporation, based on numerical model WRF-NMM.
Agriculture need services regularly
and on time, tomorrow is usually to
late
My field is not meteorological station
where data are collected. It is
specific site on the map. We need
site specific information related to
my specific conditions (soil, weather,
crop…)
The access to the services should
be easy and quick. TV and radio
programs, Web sites, SMS
messages are old fashion
technologies. Smart phone
applications should be developed
with site specific information
Will he benefit from this?
Because his benefit is my benefit, he will produce food for me,
he will use less water, he will keep food and environment safe…
CONCLUSION
We need services, but ask what and
how we need it.
I highly appreciate this meeting and
opportunity to be part of it, because
question was delivered!
CONCLUSION
Unfortunately I can not give right answer
but
Process started
I am looking forward for your
contribution!!!!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION