regional climate simulation analysis & vizualization
DESCRIPTION
Regional Climate Simulation Analysis & Vizualization. ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY. John Taylor Mathematics and Computer Science & Environmental Research Divisions Argonne National Laboratory USA. Outline. Background - Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Regional Climate SimulationRegional Climate SimulationAnalysis & VizualizationAnalysis & Vizualization
John Taylor
Mathematics and Computer Science &
Environmental Research Divisions
Argonne National Laboratory
USA
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Background - Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI)
Regional Collaborative Climate Center
Regional Climate Research Activities at ANL
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RY Enhanced Spatial ResolutionEnhanced Spatial Resolution
Increasing spatial resolution is essential to correctly simulate regional climate variability and change, which affects agriculture, water resources and energy consumption.
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ACPI Research PrioritiesACPI Research Priorities
Model development and evaluation– Atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice components,
coupled models, process parameterizations, simulation design, algorithm development
Climate projections– Optimization of computer performance, multi-decade
ensemble simulations, archives of petabyte data sets, generation of probability distributions
Assessment and analysis of impacts– Policy evaluation, impacts research,
regional/national/international assessments, specialized tools and data sets, information dissemination
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70 km atmos15 km ocean
140 km atmos30 km ocean
30 km atmos9 km ocean
30 km atmos9 km ocean
30 km atmos9 km ocaan
70 km atmos15 km ocean
Global System Model Capability Global System Model Capability RoadmapRoadmap
0000 0101 0202 0303 0404D
evel
op a
nd
te
st
Com
pon
ent
Mod
els
Lin
k
Com
pon
ents
an
d
test
Cou
ple
dM
odel
En
sem
ble
P
roje
ctio
ns
Mac
hin
e
1 TF 5 TF 5 TF 40 TF
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Regional Climate CentersRegional Climate Centers- Motivation -- Motivation -
to link the predictive global climate modeling capability with the impact assessment and policymaking communities
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RY Cost of ‘Natural Disasters’Cost of ‘Natural Disasters’
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RY Data and Software ProductsData and Software Products
Level 0Level 0 Raw Global GCM Output from Multiple 100 Year RunsRaw Global GCM Output
from Multiple 100 Year Runs
Level 1Level 1 Global GCM Monthly Means
and Variances Global GCM Monthly Means
and Variances
Database ToolsData Extraction ToolsVisualization Tools
Database ToolsData Extraction ToolsVisualization Tools
Visualization & Analysis Tools
Visualization & Analysis Tools
Level 2Level 2 Regional Scale Monthly Means and Variances
Regional Scale Monthly Means and Variances
Downscaling Tools-Statistical
-Regional Climate Model
Downscaling Tools-Statistical
-Regional Climate Model
Level 3Level 3User Generated Regional
Scale Data SetsUser Generated Regional
Scale Data Sets
Regional Climate System Modeling
Tools
Regional Climate System Modeling
Tools
Level 4Level 4 Impact Assessment Specific Data Sets
Impact Assessment Specific Data Sets
Workbenches for Impact Assessment
Workbenches for Impact Assessment
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Data GridsData Grids Integrate data archives into a distributed data
management and analysis “Grid” More than storage & network, also e.g.
– Caching and mirroring to exploit locality– Intelligent scheduling to determine appropriate
replica, site for (re)computation, etc.– Coordinated resource management for
performance guarantees– Embedded security, policy, agent technologies for
effective distributed analysis
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RY Data Grids Usage ModelData Grids Usage Model
Data suppliers publish data to the Grid Users request raw or derived data from Grid,
without needing to know– Where data is located– Whether data is stored or computed
User can easily determine– What it will cost to obtain data– Quality of derived data
Data Grid serves requests efficiently, subject to global and local policy constraints
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RY Climate Data ScenarioClimate Data Scenario
Simulationdata
archive
Cache Cache
Historicaldata
archive
Cache
Resourcemanager
Cachemanager
meso hydro compare
Analysisengine
Historicaldata
archive
Cache
“How do midwest flood frequencies under 2xCO2 scenario compare with historical data?”
Querymanager
“Access datasets A, B; run A->meso->hydro; compare result with B”
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Current ANL ActivitiesCurrent ANL Activities Parallel regional climate model
development and testing based on MM5v3
Comparison of MM5 PBL with ABLE data
Contributing to PIRCS experiments– PIRCS 1c 15 year run
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Current ANL ActivitiesCurrent ANL Activities Performance testing using high
resolution grids (10km) over Midwest with MM5v3
Downscaling using boundary and initial conditions derived from FOAM and NCAR PCM
Testbed for regional climate simulation laboratory - Regional climate workbench
Delivering regional climate data using interactive web based tools
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RY Testbed for Regional Climate Testbed for Regional Climate
Simulation LaboratorySimulation LaboratoryNCEP
Global AnalysisNCEP
Global Analysis
GCM Output-FOAM
-CCSM/PCM…..
GCM Output-FOAM
-CCSM/PCM…..
MM5 BasedRegional Climate
Model
MM5 BasedRegional Climate
Model
StatisticalDownscaling
Tools
StatisticalDownscaling
Tools
DownscaledMid-west Climate
Database
DownscaledMid-west Climate
Database
InteractiveWeb Access
-maps-data
InteractiveWeb Access
-maps-data
Climate Impacts Workbenches
Climate Impacts Workbenches
Science TeamsScience Teams
New ProcessModels
AnalysisTools
ABLEData
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Regional Climate WorkbenchRegional Climate Workbench
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Regional Climate WorkbenchRegional Climate Workbench
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Regional Climate WorkbenchRegional Climate Workbench
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Regional Climate WorkbenchRegional Climate Workbench
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Regional Climate WorkbenchRegional Climate Workbench
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Regional Climate WorkbenchRegional Climate Workbench
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RY ‘‘Hurricane Huron’Hurricane Huron’
An intense cutoff low developed over the Great Lakes region during the period 11-15 September 1996.
The system eventually developed an eye and spiral convection bands producing intense rainfall and wind speeds in excess of 75 mph
We have investigated the role of model resolution by performing identical ‘Hurricane Huron’ simulations at 80, 40, 20 and 10 km grid resolution
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RY ‘‘Perfect Storm’Perfect Storm’
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RY Regional Climate Studies Regional Climate Studies
We have applied the MM5 model running on the ANL IBM-SP to simulate conditions at the ABLE site
ABLE data provide a basis for testing MM5 model performance
ABLE data are being used at ANL to improve the boundary layer parameterizations included in MM5 and other mesoscale meteorological models
Figure opposite shows vertical temperature differences between MM5 model and ABLE data from Beaumont, KS (37.63N & 96.5W)
The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE) study was designed to improve the current understanding of the physics of the boundary layer (RASS = Radio Acoustic Sounding System)
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Midwest MM5v3 Scaling Midwest MM5v3 Scaling on ANL SGI-Origin 2000on ANL SGI-Origin 2000
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
0 10 20 30 40 50
Number of CPU's
Ela
psed
CP
U T
ime
(sec
)
SGI O2
IBM SP2
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Performance and ScalingPerformance and Scaling Full scale high resolution run over the
United States based on PIRCS experimental setup
MM5v3.4 non-hydrostatic model runs for 1985
1 grid – 101x75 52 km grid ie ~20.5 million km2
t = 150 seconds
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Experimental SetupExperimental Setup
Perform full scale independent experiments on Chiba City at ANL and on seaborg at NERSC
Boundary conditions based on NCEP reanalysis data
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Experimental SetupExperimental Setup
MM5v3.4 using MPI as released by NCAR
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RY 1 year Regional Climate Simulation1 year Regional Climate Simulation
0
100
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1 10 100 1000
Number of CPU's
CPU
Tim
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Chiba
Seaborg
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5
10
15
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25
30
0 32 64 96 128 160 192 224 256 288
Number of CPU's
Sim
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ays p
er C
PU h
r Chiba
Seaborg
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6 Processors per Month on 6 Processors per Month on ANL SGI-Origin 2000ANL SGI-Origin 2000
0
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400
600
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1000
1200
1400
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Real
CPU
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RY Argonne Regional Climate CenterArgonne Regional Climate Center
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CAVE5D Version 264 bit version
Enhanced functionality
Works with large data sets 2GB+
The Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT)—This FORTRAN 90/MPI library provides a unique resource for the rapid development of model couplers
MCT will be used for next generation coupler for MCS
Contact Jay Larson and Rob Jacob at MCS for details
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RY Issues to consider….Issues to consider….
Downscaling methodologies/protocols Statistical vs physically based
approaches Improving the predictive capabilities of
regional climate models eg hydrological cycle, PBL, ….
Delivering “quality” data products Global GCM input data quality Computer science required to support
a Regional Climate Center
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“Regional Climate”“Regional Climate”
020406080
100120140160
Year
SSI C
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Argonne Regional Climate CenterArgonne Regional Climate CenterA
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Climate Center Web Site: http://www-climate.mcs.anl.gov
Argonne MCS Web Site: http://www.mcs.anl.gov