Refining IndicatorsFinding the Best Measures for Improvements in Urban Housing

Michael BarndtNeighborhood Data Center Program

Nonprofit Center of Milwaukee

mbarndt@nonprofitcentermilwaukee.org

Community Indicators ConferenceReno, Nevada March 2004

Where I’m Coming From Nonprofit Center of Milwaukee – Capacity building for

nonprofits Neighborhood Data Center – a clearinghouse defined

by a Data/GIS Services mission Focus on neighborhood program decision-support –

work is demand driven – “retail” services Rich data environment in Milwaukee – especially in

housing Rich technology environment – program staff of 9

6 are “apprentices” from local universities Member – National Neighborhood Indicators

Partnership and Making Connections Initiative

There are two kinds of people in the world

Those who think that we can all come together and find through consensus that we are all alike – that there is one common view

Those who see differences – that perhaps …. there are three kinds of people …

Academic syndrome - Closure problems Confirmed by market driven service

Continually new, diverse requests Well beyond a set of indicators and reports

Talking Points

Multiple contexts for viewing a subject Indicators should not be oversimplified – their

contents change as they are unbundled Place/time/sub-communities matter Use of data is more than creating indicators We still are not able to measure much of what

we would really like to know

Varying Perspectives

Housing MarketsHousing PreservationResident BenefitsEquity and JusticeQuality of Life

Varying Perspectives Housing Markets

Values increase, investment attracted, quality maintained

Home ownership, equity through appreciation

Development rewardsStrong, safe, organized neighborhoods

Attractiveness, demand, value

Varying PerspectivesHousing Preservation

Loss of housing stock may trump housing production

Housing condition enforcementResources to maintain and restorePredatory behaviorLandlord behaviorProgram mix appropriate to needs

Varying PerspectivesResident Benefit

Affordability – supporting access, reasonable costs for housing

Ownership as asset – wealth buildingChoices for renters – ability to be

effective consumersPlace/ People – GentrificationHomeless

Varying PerspectivesEquity and Justice

SegregationMarket perception Institutional behaviors Access to resourcesPolitical will to respondSpatial isolation within region

Race, income, political jurisdiction

Varying PerspectivesQuality of Life

Much more than housing Mobility Unstable Transitions “Urban Village” Safety “Community” Collective local action Economically viable Services Role in region

Parsing Indicators

OwnershipValueEquity – (ownership/value)Housing Supply Condition InvestmentEquality

Ownership Definition and measurement

Census /city approachData accuracy

Homestead effects Land contract sub-market

Rate of ownership Capacity factor

OwnershipWho owns?

Life Cycle patterns – the Elderly Transition of property Late interventions

Owner – renter fault lines Bi-modal characteristics – income, race, mobility,

children, participation, multiple problems Persistence of renters

Policy biases toward ownership Investor owners// slum lords

Patterns/ Practice

“Ownership”Getting at the large term

Responsibilities of ownership Investment Order Neighborhood upkeep Organizations – Block clubs

ValueTracking Sales data

Sales Limited numbers of transactions Affected by type Affected by circumstance – arms length

Sales perspectives Volume Value/ changing value Within a market

ValueTracking Assessment

Model Quality “Comparable” Zones Amenity effects

Implementation Effect of volume of information Data limitations – quality/ condition Pace – sensitivity choices Administrative effects

ValueUnbundling the Indicator

Differential markets – duplexesShifting housing stock base

Consider a resident owner perspectiveFlipping – distortions in market

information

ValueEffects of perception

Changing expectationsSpeculation effects

Investment/ commodityEffects on investment/ maintenance

decisions by ownersEffects on lending decisions

EquityOwnership as Wealth Building

Common assumption Equity deteriation Use of equity loans Effects of predatory lending Value of “bootstrap” programs Difficulties measuring resident experience

Wealth other than income Debt and factors affecting debt Credit worthiness – Access to primary financial

systems

Housing SupplyVacancy

Hard to measure vacant units Especially those ready for occupancy Some units taken off market – duplexes

Vacant land Understated Government ownership

Housing supplyInterpretation

“Abandonment” as a stage Threshold for investment decisions Triage has come to mean public abandonment of

certain neighborhoods

Relationship to population change Did public leave first? Or did housing condition/options drive them out Regional growth often reinvents neighborhoods

beyond basic needs for supply

Housing supplyUse

Residents like vacant lots Are lots effective open space? Are lots used for other purposes?

Gardens Tot lots

Are lots appropriate for redevelopment? Assembly issues Land-banking as a policy

Holding action Obsolete footprints Bias against “infill”

InvestmentHMDA

Investment patternsLending packages for slumlordsSub-prime lendingPredatory lending

InvestmentForeclosure

Tax foreclosureMortgage foreclosure

Patterns of concentration A subset - elderly Resident owner/ Investor owner Recent policy effects

Patterns of return of property to the market

Investment Maintenance/ Improvements

Costs to maintain The back side to “bootstrap” options

Lending limits when costs exceed value Costs do not vary by geography

IncentivesDisincentives

Effects of lax enforcement

InvestmentPrograms

Mix of options and resources Running out of funds

How well are options marketed Is there capacity to implement

Especially localWho does not fit the options?

InvestmentAccess to capital

Affordability Work-income comes first Costs of new investments

Public Policy Public policy stresses increasing middle income

participation/ or removing lower income concentrations Failure of “trickle-down” Tax structure – subsidizing wealth

Costs Increasing burden - % of income spent on housing Risks associated with bootstrap approaches

EqualityDiscrimination by race

HMDA lending / refusal patterns Importance of testingDebate over measures of segregationExtent of transitory “integrated”

neighborhoodsExtent of “unstable” “integrated”

neighborhoods

EqualityDiscrimination against persons

Who cares about low income housing supply Renter programs Homeless programs Employment – wages/ stability

Low income solutions in the past Public housing ghettos

Weeding out Felons Transitional services

Homeless – linking to the full cycle

EqualityLending practices

From “trust” Racial effects Community connections – local lending

To formulas What is the bias in these?

EqualityDiscrimination against place

Redlining Regional equity

Taxing resources Schools

Public policy Local capacity

For self help For locally driven development

Public/ nonprofit partnerships

EqualityRedefining place

Destroy a village to save it Eliminate old housing stock

Recreate a community, but for different people Gentrification