see refining

8/14/2019 See Refining

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Date of first publication:

November 25th

, 2008 Refining Sector

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Greek-Turkish Refining Sector

Continuation of diesel shortage combined with growing demand forrefinery products

Victor LabateIndustrials/Oil&Gas Analyst+30210 7720076

[email protected]

Elif Tore YurdumOil&Gas/ConglomeratesSenior Analyst+90212 [email protected]

View Despite the fact that we experienced a recovery ofrefining margins in Q308, we expect a further softening ofbenchmark Med refining margins in 09, which will have a moreor less pronounced impact for each refiner. Our refining sectorreport covers the South Eastern Mediterranean region (SEE)and encompasses companies Motor Oil and Hellenic

Petroleum in Greece, and Tupras in Turkey. The EasternMediterranean has unique advantages and a few refiners arewell positioned to gain from them. Demand for oil products isnot only resilient but growing. The shortage in refining capacityespecially for the production of desulphurised diesel keepsMed diesel cracks at high levels. There is a ratherunderdeveloped petrol station network in the Balkans. Finally,there are high barriers to entry in Greece and Turkey.

Key themes The key themes are the softening of benchmarkrefining margins, the correction of crude oil prices in Q3, thestrengthening of the US dollar, and the impact of the globalcredit crisis on lending. Benchmark Med refining margins areexpected to see a correction in 09, as a result of lowerdemand for oil products globally combined with an increase incapacity. Both heavy and light distillates should see a decreasein refining margins, while margins for middle distillates shouldremain high. However the decreasing availability or higher costof borrowings might delay some of the planned/ongoingrefinery projects and therefore curb new capacity additions.Crude oil prices have fallen to 06 levels and we expect thetrend to continue with restrictions put to commodity trading anda softening in global oil consumption. The decrease in crude oilprices, which is continuing in Q4, is expected to lead toadditional inventory losses for all refiners in the region, but atthese levels significant quarterly losses arent expected in themedium term. The strengthening of the US dollar is anticipatedto lead to foreign exchange losses in the short-run as dollarloans and trade payables are being re-evaluated, but to higher

margins in the longer run. Finally, the tightening in lending andthe increased interest rates related to the global credit crisiscould potentially threaten dividends and even profitability forthe most leveraged refiners.

But the impact on consumption of oil products should belimited as demand in the region is seen as resilient in Greeceand growing in Turkey and the Balkans.

Estimates In light of these developments, weve revised ourcrude oil price estimates to $70/bbl for 09 and after and have

decreased our $/ ratio. The decrease in oil prices y-o-y willhave a positive effect on working capital in 09 and refinerycosts, while the strengthened US dollar will improve margins.We have also revised our long-term refining margins toaccount for the potential for overcapacity in the future due tosignificant capacity additions taking place especially in theMiddle East and Asia. Finally we have made adjustments toour net financial expenses estimates, taking into account theincreased spreads on debt.

We could experience a continued improvement ofbenchmark refining margins in the next two quarters, but thisshould be short-lived, in our view. Diesel and jet fuel spreadscould reach higher levels in 09, and benefit the most flexiblerefiners.

Top recommendations In this environment we believe thatrefiners with a high level of complexity and with a lowleverage should outperform their peers.

Both Motor Oil and Tupras belong to our top picks list. MotorOil stands out for its level of complexity and for its ability tomaximise its production of middle distillates. Tupras isstrongly positioned in Turkey with refineries operating at theheart of the countrys industrial region. It also has a strongfinancial structure, with a high interest coverage ratio andrelatively low gearing, and offers an attractive dividend yield.Hellenic Petroleum is well-diversified, despite its lower levelof complexity, its exposure to the energy sector with its power

generating unit and its 35% DEPA stake, could potentiallyoffset the declining refining business.

Stock Data Rating Target Price Upside Market YTD P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV Div Yield

Price 21/11/08 Potential Cap (mil) (%) 2008e 2009e 2008e 2009e 2008e 2009e 2008e 2009e

Hellenic Petroleum Neutral 6.5 5.4 20% 1,650 -52.1% 4.4 x 6.4 x 5.3 x 5.4 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 9.3% 9.0%

Motor Oil Outperform 14.0 8.0 75% 886 -49.4% 6.5 x 7.0 x 6.5 x 6.5 x 2.4 x 2.3 x 12.5% 11.3%

Tupras Outperform 23.6 12.30 92% 3080 -72% 2.8 x 2.8 x 1.7 x 2.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 34% 23%Source: National P&K Securities Estimates, Finansinvest Estimates. Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil in EUR, Tupras in TRY.

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by National P&K Securities S.A. regulated by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, FinansInvest regulated by the Capital Markets BoardThis communication has been prepared by National P&K Securities S.A. and distributed in the United Kingdom by NBG International Limited.


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Contents

Pros and Cons of Greek-Turkish refining Page 3

Oil market A very volatile market Our oil price estimates

Page 4

Global refining Capacity additions to lead to declining refining margins Deficit in secondary processing units to remain

Page 5

SEE refining Growing market with a diesel deficit

Med cracking margins Analysis of spreads per product Light/Heavy differential Environmental regulations

Page 6-10

Refining sector per country Greece Turkey Romania

Page 10-12

Peer Analysis Comparison of product slate Leverage analysis Dividend yield

Relative valuation

Page 13-15

Conclusion Page 16

Motor Oil Page 17

Hellenic Petroleum Page 18

Tupras Page 19

Disclosure appendix Page 20-22


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Pros and Cons of Greek-Turkish refining sector

Pros

Growing demandDemand for oil products is growing in Turkey and the Balkans and is sustained in Greece.

Lower crude oil pricesThe recent correction in crude oil prices will help limit to some extent the downward pressureon demand for refinery products.

Eastern Mediterranean diesel shortageDemand for diesel is increasing in the region and the diesel shortage in the EasternMediterranean maintains diesel cracks at high levels. The deficit in secondary processing units(hydrocrackers) is also expected to remain globally in the medium term.

High barriers to entryThere are high barriers to entry for foreign competitors. In the Greek market there are strict

environmental regulations and required licensing from the government. In Turkey the scarcity ofrefinery sites near consumption areas (which is a main advantage of Tupras) is an importantbarrier for entry.

Strategically positionedRefiners in SEE are strategically positioned between East and West, and can respond todemand in their local markets but also in other regions such as the Middle East. For instance, alarge share of Motor Oils growth comes from exports namely in the Middle East.

High light/heavy differentialThe light/heavy differential remains at high levels, which benefits refiners that are able processheavier crudes.

Strengthening US dollar

The recent strengthening of the US dollar is positive in the medium term for refiners as theyincurred part of their cost in their local currency while they sell in US dollars.

Cons

Refining Margin VolatilityFrom 2002 to 2006, a run of increasing refinery utilization rates worldwide lead in part toincreasing refinery margins. The trend is expected to reverse leading to gradually softeningrefining margins. However the trend is expected to affect first refineries with a lower level ofcomplexity, while more complex refiners should maintain higher margins in the medium term.

Fluctuation in the US dollarRefiners that have payables or loans in US dollars can incur extraordinary foreign exchangelosses upon a strengthening of the US currency.

Oil price volatilityOil price volatility can drive negatively a refinerys performance. For instance, sharp drops in oilprices can lead to significant inventory losses, and can even affect refining margins. This canaffect refiners with high inventory levels due to local regulations.


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Oil marketA very volatile market

Oil prices have been very volatile over the last two years, going from c. $50 in early to 2007,

reaching c. $140 in mid-2008 and falling back to slightly above $50 today. Yet there haventbeen major supply/demand imbalances globally and oil inventories in major consumer countrieshave been at favourable levels.

According to OPEC, the main factors that explain this volatility are firstly the sharp slide and thesubsequent strengthening of the US dollar starting from September. Secondly, index trading,and regulated and unregulated commodity trading, which have increased the share ofspeculative buys in the market. Thirdly, geopolitical developments such as tensions in theMiddle East have had an impact. Fourthly, refining tightness has played a role in crude oil pricevolatility.

One major factor remains the role of regulated oil futures and unregulated over-the-counter(OTC) exchanges. For instance, the ratio of paper barrels traded on the NYMEX to the physicalbarrels actually supplied has increased exponentially in recent years. Also assets allocated to

commodity index trading alone have risen from $13 billion at the end of 2003 to $260 by March2008 according to OPEC. In the summer 2008, US Congress vowed to take action in order toreverse runaway crude and gasoline prices and take steps to curb excessive speculation in theoil market with the introduction of bill S. 3183 (End Oil Speculation Act of 2008). The bill isfocused on regulating traders abroad, raising margin limits for oil speculators, and limitingaccess to hedge funds.

Urals Crude prices 2003-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 J ul -04 J an-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 J ul -07 J an-08 J ul -08

Source: Bloomberg.

Since September 08, oil prices have seen a sharp correction that we attribute mostly to: a) thestrength of the US dollar, b) steps taken in the US to curb speculation in the oil market, c) theglobal economic slowdown.

We note that the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a decrease in global oil demandfrom this 20-year trend rate of 1.6% to 0.5% in 08 and 0.8% in 09, resulting from weakness ofdemand in OECD country not offset by the non-OECD project robust demand growth (08:4.2%, 09: 3.4%).

Our oil price estimatesTaking into account all these factors, we are using $70/bbl from 2009 onwards as a crude oilprice estimate in all our forecasts contained in this report.


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Global refiningCapacity additions expected to lead to lower refining margins

There is a large volume of new refining capacity being built worldwide. According to the BP

Statistical Review of World Energy, world refining capacity increased by 1.4% in 2007 to 87.5mbarrels a day (b/d), while refinery runs grew by 1.1% to 75.5 b/d. As a result, average utilisationworldwide decreased to 85.9% in 2007 from 86.2% in 2006, and it is expected to reach c. 85%in 08.

According to OPECs reference case projections, the current list of announced refinery projectsequates to 7.6mb/d of new crude distillation capacity up to 2015 or a c. 19% increase in globalcapacity. More than 40% of this additional capacity or 3.2 mb/d will be sited in Asia, mainlyChina and India, with most projects scheduled for the period 2008-2010. 2 mb/d will be in theMiddle East, with projects expected to start operations after 2010, with an expected peak ataround 2012.

Distillation capacity additions 2008-2015

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

US &Canada

LatinAmerica

Africa Europe FSU MiddleEast

Asia Pacific

Source:OPEC.

Even though the decline in refining margins is still not obvious in all regions of the world (e.g.Europe), the anticipated increase in capacity, and associated decrease in capacity utilisation, isexpected to lead to a decrease in refinery profit margins, and to affect first refineries with alower level of complexity.

We note that as the graph above indicates, capacity additions will also be the lowest in Europe.

Deficit in secondary processing units to remain

In OPECs reference case, crude distillation unit additions by 2015 appear sufficient to coverthe increasing level of demand for oil products. However, those for secondary processing unitsdo not appear so.

Substantial such new additions are needed globally, especially for hydrocracking anddesulphurisation, to abide by environmental regulations (e.g. in Europe). Current data indicatesthat the supply/demand gap especially for middle distillates will grow, and that spreads forproducts such as diesel and jet fuel will likely increase. In Europe, studies show that the overallmarket is anticipated to remain short of diesel by c. 500,000 barrels per day by 2010.

Therefore, refiners that have already invested in diesel-oriented projects are best positioned tocapture these higher spreads.


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SEE refining Growing market with a diesel deficit

The Eastern Mediterranean is a market with resilient demand, and it is especially strong for

diesel. According to a study from JBC Energy, the largest growth in demand in SEE isanticipated to be for diesel, while demand for gasoline is expected to be marginally negative in09 and 10.

South Eastern Europe Product demand growth by Product (kb/d)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Other

Naphtha

Jet/Kero

Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Gas Oil / Diesel

LPG

Source: JBC Energy.

In terms of net imports, net imports for diesel were positive in 07 and in 08, at over 100 kb/dfor 08. Going forward, the trend is expected to continue, while the positive net exports balancefor gasoline should remain. This illustrates the deficit in refining capacity for diesel, which isanticipated to maintain diesel cracks at high levels in the region.

South Eastern Europe Product Net Imports by Product (kb/d)

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Gas Oil / Diesel

Other

Fuel Oil

Jet/Kero

Source: JBC Energy.


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Med cracking margins seen declining

The Urals Med Cracking refining margin fell from $6.21/bbl in the first ten months of 07 to

$6.03/bbl in the first ten months of 08. Refining margins have improved in Q308 but weattribute the regained strength to: a) a series of planned and unplanned shutdown of refineriesin Europe ahead of the switch to 10 ppm sulphur, b) refinery outages in the US, c) lower crudeprices, which increased demand for refinery products.

Going forward, we expect the cracking refining margin to decrease due to global capacityadditions and stagnant consumption of refinery products. The table below outlines ourestimates for 2008-2010:

Urals Cracking Refining Margin ($/bbl)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 H108 2008e 2009e 2010e1.5 3.6 6.2 6.5 5.5 6.0 5.8 5.0 4.3 4.0

Source: International Energy Agency, National P&K Securities.

Urals cracking refining margin 2001-2008 ($/bbl)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-01 J ul-01 J an-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 J ul -03 J an-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 J ul -05 J an-06 J ul-06 J an-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 J ul -08

Source: International Energy Agency.

Analysis of spreads per product

We have calculated the spreads per product (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, 1% fuel oil) in the region,using Mediterranean prices and the Urals crude (see graph in the next page).

The spread is the highest for jet fuel and diesel, with diesel being the most resilient to therecent economic slowdown. The spreads for both products reach c. $250/tonne in October 08.

The gasoline spread is lower than last year reaching c. $50/tonne in October 08, while the 1%fuel oil spread remains at negative levels. This illustrates the deficit in middle distillates in SEE,which results in superior spreads, while the surplus of gasoline remains.

We note that fuel oil has improved but we anticipate this to be short-lived, due to lower demandworldwide. For instance, bunker fuel demand is expected to weaken again as internationalmaritime trade declines. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to its lowest level since November 2002,which is an indication that maritime traffic will weaken dramatically. Furthermore, upcomingcapacity additions globally in 09 should have the largest impact on heavy distillates. Goingforward we expect a deterioration of heavy distillates and light distillates cracks, namelygasoline and fuel oil cracks, while we anticipate middle distillate cracks to remain at high levelsfor at least two to three years, thanks to the tight supply/demand balance in SEE, leading tofavourable prices in the Eastern Mediterranean market.


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Med Diesel Urals Spread ($/tonne) Med Gasoline Urals Spread ($/tonne)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul -06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul -08

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul -06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul -08

Med Jet fuel Urals Spread ($/tonne) 1% Fuel Oil - Urals Spread ($/tonne)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul -06 Jan-07 Jul -07 Jan-08 Jul -08

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Jan-04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Source: Bloomberg.


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Light/heavy differential continues to benefit complex refiners

As the graph below indicates, the light/heavy differential increased substantially starting from

2005. The increase was largely driven by higher gasoline and later on diesel margins, whichincreased demand for light sweet crudes.

We note though that heavy crude differentials have weakened in Q3 and the difference maycontinue to be weak in Q4 as well due to seasonality. However, since Russia is currentlyincurring losses on falling oil, Ural prices might widen again as soon as early next year.

In our view, the light/heavy differential should continue to remain strong in the medium term.Firstly diesel refining margins are anticipated to remain high, and push consumption of lightsweet crudes. Secondly, we believe that fuel oil prices will correct and continue to compete withheavy sour grades, hence easing demand for heavier crudes. Thirdly, crudes such as theIranian heavy are expected to remain priced at lower levels due to the ban placed on thecountry by the U.S..

Differential WTI and Maya ($/bbl)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Source: Bloomberg.

Ural-Brent and Iran Heavy-Brent Differential ($/bbl)

2.5

3.34.0 4.0

4.85.2

3.8

1.91.5

1.9

0.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9Ural - Brent Diff.

Iran Heavy - Brent Diff.

BRENT

Source: Bloomberg.


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Europe specs and environmental regulations

EU has imposed an environment legislation that will take effect in 09 stating the level of sulfurat 10 ppm in both diesel and gasoline fuels. Significant capital investments and maintenance byrefiners have been necessary to reach the new stated level. This forced many refiners inEurope to shut down for extended periods of time, thus limiting supply and leading to animprovement of refining margins in Q308.

In our view, the new regulation in Europe will also increase the barriers to entry for non-EUrefiners that do not have to abide by the new specs.

Strengthening US dollar and lower oil prices to help margins

We note that the $/ ratio went from $1.56/ in Q208 to $1.51/ in Q308, to reach $1.43/ atthe end of September. A stronger US dollar is good for refining margins as refiners usually selltheir products in US dollars, while part of their costs are in their local currency (e.g. Euro).

We note that lower crude prices are good for refiners as usually refiners use 4-5% of crude

purchased in the refining process. We estimate that for each $10/bbl decline the impact is c.$0.4 - $0.5/bbl, savings that we incorporate in our models.

Greece Market description

Oil and refinery products are the main source of energy in Greece, and account for c. 60% ofenergy consumption. According to Business Monitor International, Greece will account for 3.5%of Developed European regional oil demand by 2012, while making no contribution to supply.Consumption of oil products is at c. 22m Mt in 08. The countrys oil consumption is rising at c.2% per year and is expected to reach 510,000 b/d by 12 from c. 460,000 b/d in 07, or a 10%increase over the period.

Greeces current consumption exceeds local refinery production, and the country remains a netimporter of diesel. Diesel demand is increasing, as it is extensively used in the residentialsector (about one third of consumption). It has also become the preferred oil product used by

the industrial sector. The trend is expected to continue and Greece should remain a netimporter of diesel in the medium to long-term.

Players

The main players in the market are Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil. Hellenic Petroleum is thelargest refiner in the country and operates three refinery units: Aspropyrgos, Elfsina andSalonica, which have a Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of 9.69, 1.35, and 5.06 respectively.Hellenic Petroleum also operates an extensive network of gasoline stations across Greeceunder the trademark EKO.

Motor Oil operates a refinery in Agioi Theodori, which has a NCI of 11.95. It is the soleproducer of lubricants. Hellenic Petroleum plans to construct a hydrocracker and a coking unitat its Elfsis refinery, which is anticipated to be operational by 11.

The Greek market is fully liberalised, and open to private and foreign competition. Howeverbarriers to entry to the market are high. Firstly, Greece is remote from Western Europe, whichmakes it less accessible to foreign competitors. Secondly, the capital needed to establish adistribution network is high, while the two local players already have an established chain ofpetrol stations that covers the mainland and the islands. Thirdly, Greece abides by strictenvironmental regulations and licensing is difficult to obtain. For instance, Greece follows EUspecifications for sulfur content, which keeps out foreign competitors that have not invested toreach the EU stated levels.

We believe that players already established in Greece have a competitive advantage and thuswe estimate the country premium at c. $3/bbl for 09.


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Players, Investments

Turkeys deficit in diesel and a global rise in refining margins in recent years have set the stagefor increasing interest in refinery investments in Turkey. The government is aiming to develop

an energy hub in Ceyhan, which is a Mediterranean port at the south end of BTC pipeline.There have been four applications to build a refinery in Ceyhan with planned capacities totaling45m tons. Of these, only one has received a permanent license from the Energy Authority andnone of the projects have started yet. We expect only one or two of the investments to berealized given rising costs of investments, a likely softening in global refining margins and thepotential excess supply (especially in gasoline and fuel oil) if all projects are realized.Considering the construction period, new entrant(s) are not expected to become operationalbefore five years, indicating Tupras will remain to be Turkeys only domestic refiner in the midterm.

In Turkey, scarcity of refinery sites near consumption areas (which is a main advantage ofTupras) is an important barrier for entry. A competitior would incur increased costs relative toTupras due to additional transportation costs. However, it is not enough to deter a new entrantin the market but rather it is a disadvantage. The current credit crunch might delay new

competition. We note that Tupras also has a long established relationship with customers andpipelines connected to customers and large storage facilities.

Turkey deregulated pricing and competition in the petroleum sector in 2005. State ownedrefiner Tupras was privatized in 2006. Tupras remains to be the only player in the market and is51% owned by Koc Group.


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Peer analysisProduct slate per company

Tupras - Product slate

LPG3% Naphta

3%

Others3%

Jet Fuel13%

Asphalt9%

Fuel Oil22%

Diesel28%

Gasoline19%

Source: Tupras.

Hellenic Petroleum Product slate

Heating oil10%

Fuel oil24%

Diesel24%

Gasoline23%

Jet fuels9%

Other10%

Source: Hellenic Petroleum.

Motor Oil Product slate

Lubricants2%

Specialproducts

5%

Liquidgases

3%Jet fuels

10%

Gasoline22%

Diesel37%

Fuel oil21%

Source: Motor Oil.

In 2008, Tupras preferred jet fuel overdiesel in production to benefit from stronget fuel demand, partly stemming fromChina demand related to the Olympics. Asa result, Tupras' jet yield increased by 2ppYoY to 13%.

Hellenic Petroleum has the lowestproduction of diesel among the four peersin its production slate, with dieselproduction at 24%. However with thecompletion of the Elfsis upgrade, weanticipate an increase in middle distillates

production, including diesel and jet fuel,but that should take effect only startingfrom 11.

Motor Oil has the highest production ofmiddle distillates, reaching about half of itstotal production. The company already hasinvested in a hydrocracker and has thecapability to maximize its production ofdiesel. Versus its peers, Motor Oil has thehighest share of diesel at 37%, which iscurrently one of the highest margin refineryroduct.


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Level of complexity: Motor Oil wins in level of complexity

The table below depicts the level of each refiner analysed in this report. Motor Oil stands

out with a NCI of 11.95, followed by Tupras, and Hellenic Petroleum. We favour refinerswith a higher level of complexity, as we view them as the most flexible and most able toincrease production of higher margin oil products, all while taking advantage of thelight/heavy differential.

Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) by refinerRefiner NCI

Hellenic Petroleum 6.30

Salonica 6.70

Elefsina 1.50

Aspropyrgos 10.60

Skopje 4.30

Motor Oil 11.95

Tupras 7.25

Izmit 7.78

Kirrikale 6.32Izmir 7.66

Batman 1.83Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Motor Oil, Tupras.

Leverage analysis: Tupras wins in financial strength

Leverage ratios 08 estimates

Hell. Petroleum Motor Oil Tupras

Liabilities to Equity 1.1 4.0 1.8

Bank Debt to Equity 45% 240% 21%

Fixed to Total Assets 31.4% 44% 28%

Debt / EBITDA 195% 320% 46%

Interest Coverage 5.4 5.0 12.5Source: National P&K Securities, Finansinvest.

Motor Oil is by far the most leveraged refiner among the four companies in our universewith a bank debt to equity at 2.4x and a debt to EBITDA at 3.2x. However it is worthnoting that its interest coverage ratio remains at reasonable levels and is comparable toits most direct competitor in Greece, Hellenic Petroleum. Motor Oils superior refiningassets allow the company to maintain a high operating profit and hence sustain higherlevels of debt. We expect the trend to continue in the medium term as the companytakes advantage of the supply/demand imbalance for diesel in SEE.

In our view, Hellenic Petroleum is the most exposed to the softening of refining marginsexpected for 09. Its interest coverage ratio could reach lower levels as the companyincreases its leverage while margins deteriorate.

Tupras is far from heavily leveraged with US$595mn in financial debt as of Sept. 08,corresponding to a Debt/Equity ratio of 15%. Adjusted for US$395mn of cash at hand,the company's net debt position stands at US$200mn. Tupras generates strong, steadycash flow from operations, which reached US$691mn in 9M07 (2007:US$1.2bn).


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Dividend yield: Tupras has the highest dividend yield

2008e dividend yieldHell. Petroleum Motor Oil Tupras

9.3% 12.5% 34.0%National P&K Securities, Finansinvest.

Tupras offers the highest dividend yield vs. its two other peers. As a company policy, allof the distributable income is paid out as dividends, which also makes the company oneof the best dividend plays in the ISE. In 2007, Tupras distributed US$824mn ofdividends (TRY4.2/sh) and we estimate a 09F dividend yield of 23.9% at the currentprice, although this will ultimately depend on the year end TRY/US$ rate, which willdetermine the extent of FX losses and therefore net income for FY2008.

Relative valuation

Our relative valuation includes Motor Oil, Hellenic Petroleum, Tupras, Neste Oil, ErgSpA, Saras SpA, MOL (Magyar Olay Es Gazipar), PKN (Polski Koncern Naftow), OMVAG.

Relative Valuation

MarketCap.

CountryP/E08

P/E09

EV/EBITDA08

EV/EBITDA09

P/BV08

P/BV09

%ChangeYTD

Motor Oil Hellas* 886 Greece 6.5 x 7.0 x 6.5 x 6.5 x 2.4 x 2.3 x -49.4%

Hellenic Petroleum* 1,650 Greece 4.4 x 6.4 x 5.3 x 5.4 x 0.6 x 0.6 x -52.1%

Tupras* 3581 Turkey 2.8 x 2.8 x 1.7 x 2.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x -72%

Erg SpA 1,562 Italy 12.2 x 13.1 x 3.8 x 3.9 x 0.7 x 0.6 x -19.3%

Neste 2,428 Finland 5.4 x 5.4 x 3.9 x 4.1 x 0.9 x 0.8 x -60.8%

Saras SpA 2,786 Italy 8.9 x 10.9 x 4.3 x 4.8 x 1.7 x 1.7 x -26.3%

MOL (Magyar Olay) 3,428 Hungary 3.5 x 4.1 x 3.0 x 3.4 x 0.8 x 0.7 x -66.2%PKN 2,691 Poland 5.0 x 6.0 x 3.9 x 4.1 x 0.5 x 0.5 x -56.4%

OMV AG 5,010 Austria 2.5 x 3.2 x 1.9 x 2.2 x 0.5 x 0.5 x -69.9%

Source: JCF. *: National P&K securities, Finansinvest. EUR for Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil. TRY for Tupras.

Tupras usually trades at deep discounts to peers, partly driven by high financial incomefrom interest earnings on taxes Tupras collects on behalf of the government and keepsin company coffers for an average of 18 days. Tax collections are sizeable as Turkeytaxes oil heavily. In order to eliminate this discrepancy and focus more on operationalstrength, we compare Tupras with peers on EV/EBITDA basis.

Motor Oil trades in line vs. its most direct peers on a 08 P/E basis, but at a premium onan EV/EBITDA basis compared to its most direct peers (Hellenic Petroleum, Erg, Neste,Saras). We view the premium as justified considering: a) its significantly higher dividendyield vs. its peers, b) its high level of complexity, c) its strategy of expansion.


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Conclusion

The Eastern Mediterranean has unique characteristics. Demand for oil products is not

only resilient but also growing. The shortage in refining capacity and the too manyoutdated refineries in the region keep Med diesel spreads at high levels. The largenumber of crude oil suppliers closeby, be it in Russia or the Middle East, allow somerefineries to optimise their crude mix. Refiners can expand their marketing activities inthe Balkans, which offer higher margins.

There are also important barriers to entry in Greece and Turkey, and the new 09European specifications will increase those barriers further in the EU. Finally, we expectthe stronger $ and lower crude oil prices to have a positive impact on margins.

In our view, refiners best positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean are those with theability to maximise their production of middle distillates and to take advantage of: a) thehigh diesel cracks, b) the large number of alternative crude oil suppliers, c) the highlight/heavy differential, which remains at c. $15/bbl in October 08.

Hence, Motor Oil with its NCI of 11.95 sets itself apart as it can optimise its crude mixand maximise its production of middle distillates. Other refiners are already investing insuch upgrades: Hellenic Petroleum plans to have a hydrocracker and a cockeroperational by 11. The Tupras residuum upgrades investment, expected to be fullyoperational by 12-13, is aimed at exploiting the imbalance between fuel oil and diesel.The project is expected to increase overall white product yield to 83% (68% in 2007),and the overall NCI of Tupras to 9.5.

Tupras remains a winner in terms of leverage, dividend yield, and relative valuation. Ithas the highest interest coverage ratio, and lowest debt to equity ratio vs. its two otherpeers in the region. In times of increasing debt spreads and softening margins, we viewthis rather low level of leverage as a significant advantage. Tupras also offers thehighest dividend yield vs. its two other peers and is one of the best dividend plays in theISE. This is expected to remain in 09. Finally, it trades at deep discounts vs. all itspeers in Europe, and thus remains attractive in terms of valuation.


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Energy Outperform

Positioned to gain from continuing European diesel shortage

Victor LabateIndustrials/Oil&Gas Analyst+30210 [email protected]

Price: 8.0(closing date 21/11/08)

New 12M target price: 14.0Previous 12M target price: 14.0

Investment highlights

Athens General Index at 1,826.41 (closing date 21/11/08)

Ke fi ures2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Revenues ( m) 4,070 5,612 4,660 5,697

EBITDA ( m) 296 275 266 341Profit after-tax ( m) 150 137 126 182

EPS () 1.35 1.23 1.14 1.64

EPS chng (%) 17.2% -8.9% -7.8% 44.2%

DPS () 1.20 1.00 0.90 1.20

P/E (x) 11.7 6.5 7.0 4.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.5 6.5 5.2

EV/EBIT (x) 10.0 7.9 7.9 6.0

EV/Turnover (x) 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3

RoE (%) 42.5% 37.3% 33.5% 42.6%

ROIC (%) 16.5% 13.4% 13.3% 16.2%

Free Cash Flow Yield (%) 6.7% -6.0% 17.8% 6.6%

Dividend Yield (%) 7.6% 12.5% 11.3% 15.0%

P/BV (x) 4.8 2.4 2.3 1.9

Source: National P&K Research estimates

Stock data

52-week price range 6.50 17.10Outstanding No of shares 110,782,980

Avg. daily shares traded 134,570

Market Cap in Euro m 886

Reuters / Bloomberg MORr.AT / MOH GA

Free Float 38.4%

Vardinoyiannis Group 61.6%

Absolute performance in 07 -19.1%

in 08 -49.4%

Contact name / telephone S. Balezos / +30 (210) 8094169

Company Description

Motor Oil is the second refining and petroleum marketing company in Greece, withc. 25% of total domestic refining capacity and a network of nearly 575 retailstations. The group is involved in crude oil refining as well as the wholesale andretail marketing and distribution of refined petroleum products through itssubsidiary Avin Oil. The refinery located in Ag. Theodoroi, 70km outside Athens, isequipped with a crude oil distillation unit, a catalytic reforming unit, a hydro-processing unit, catalytic and thermal cracking units, and a hydrocracking unit. Thegroups production includes lubricants, liquid gases, gasolines, jet fuels, specialproducts, diesels, and fuels oils. It group has the only lubricant production complexin Greece.

Pros

The group generates high economic profits. Based on ourcalculations, ROIC exceeded WACC in the past two years byc. 10%. ROE is at high levels and is expected to remain sogoing forward.

Very attractive dividend yield (10.6% in 07). The group alsotraditionally distributes an interim dividend in November.

The Eastern Mediterranean is a growing market, anddemand for diesel is especially strong creating a capacityshortage in the region and thus benefiting Motor Oil.

Few refineries in Europe currently have a unit with a NelsonComplexity Index of 11.95, Motor Oils level of complexity,which allows it to alter its refinery configuration and toproduce high value-added products. Motor Oil is alsostrategically better positioned among its Europeancompetitors at least in the medium term.

Domestic competition is limited to two main players in the

Greek market: Hellenic Petroleum and Motor Oil. There arehigh barriers to entry due to strict environmental regulationsand licensing, and the very capital intensive nature of theGreek market.

Because of its high complexity MOH has the ability tochoose from different suppliers available in the area, a factthat allows the company to continuously optimise itsfeedstock.

MOHs sales are in all three main markets works as a safetynet, and they have the ability to optimise their profit marginsaccording the supply and demand in each market.

Even though MOH complies with the regulation for domesticsales, a large share of its sales is abroad and as a

consequence its average inventory is significantly less thanany other land-locked European refinery. Thus, Motor Oil isless exposed to the volatility in oil prices.

Cons

We expect a softening of benchmark refining margins. Butthe trend is expected to affect less refineries with a higherlevel of complexity in the medium term.

Motor Oil is exposed to potential foreign exchange losses. Itis naturally hedged on a balance-sheet basis, as it tries tomatch asset and liabilities per currency basis trying tosmooth out in the short to medium-term foreign currencyvolatility.

Catalysts

The CDU investment will allow Motor Oil to expand itsproduction by 10, boost volumes and improve margins.


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Energy Neutral

Contribution of non-refining activities remains priced in atcurrent levels

Victor LabateIndustrials/Oil&Gas Analyst+30210 [email protected]

Price: 5.40(closing price 21/11/08)

New 12M target price: 6.5Previous 12M target price: 6.5


Athens General Index at 1,826.41 (Closing price 21/11/08)

Ke fi ures2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Revenues ( m) 8,538 9,198 7,980 8,378EBITDA ( m) 617 479 496 515Profit after-tax ( m) 365 367 251 246EPS () 1.15 1.23 0.84 0.82EPS chng (%) 35.0% 6.6% -31.6% -2.2%P/E (x) 9.8 4.4 6.4 6.6EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 5.3 5.4 6.2EV/EBIT (x) 9.3 7.5 7.8 9.3EV/Turnover (x) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3P/BV (x) 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6RoE (%) 15.4% 14.6% 9.4% 8.9%ROIC (%) 9.8% 6.5% 5.9% 5.1%Free Cash Flow Yield (%) 5.9% 15.5% 5.1% -16.8%Dividend Yield (%) 4.4% 9.3% 9.0% 8.8%Source: National P&K Research estimates

Stock data

52 week low/high 4.84 12.44Outstanding No of shares 305,516,704

Avg daily shares (3m) traded 156,037

Market cap in m 1,650

Reuters / Bloomberg ELPE GA / HEPr.AT

Free float (e) 28.6%

Latsis Group 35.9%

Greek State 35.5%

Absolute performance in '07 +8.0%

in '08 -52.1%

Contact name / telephone Mr. G. Grigoriou / +30 210 5539109

Company Description

Hellenic Petroleum is the countrys largest refining and petroleum marketingcompany, with 70% of total domestic refining capacity and a network of nearly1,512 retail stations. The company has also has a 54% stake in FYROMs Oktarefinery and a 35% stake in Greeces natural gas company DEPA. The Greekstate is the controlling shareholder with 35.5% of the outstanding shares.

Pros

High barriers to entry for foreign competitors due to strictenvironmental regulations, and large amount of capital neededto enter the Greek market.

Sustainable demand, as the Eastern Mediterranean is amarket with resilient demand for oil products, especially dieseldue to the shortage in the region and rising global demand.

Hellenic Petroleum activities are diversified and includerefining, marketing, petrochemicals, power, E&P, and gas,while non-refining activities are growing and taking a larger ofthe groups EBITDA.

We favor CEO Mr. Costopoulos and the groups newexperienced management.

Hellenic Petroleum has a rather strong balance sheet and self-financing ability. Management target leverage ratio is at 30%,and the group has a high current ratio and interest coverage.

Cons

We expect a softening of benchmark refining margins.

Oil price volatility can drive negatively a refinerysperformance. For instance, sharp drops in oil prices can leadto significant inventory losses, and can even affect refiningmargins.

HEP has rather low returns compared to local competitorMotor Oil, despite the fact that 60% of the companys portfolio(Aspropyrgos refinery, EKO, Polypropylene chain, Cyprusassets) has returns higher than 10%.

Fluctuations in the US $ is a concern as refining margins (thusprofits) are quoted in $ and operating costs in.

Hellenic Petroleums Nelson Complexity Index stands belowMotor Oils and below or at par with the index of otherEuropean competitors. Though the companys upgrade planwill raise the index from 6.9 to 9.0 increasing middle distillateproduction (white, higher margin products) at the expense offuel oil, it will not happen until 2011. Thus, Hellenic Petroleumwill continue to refine a large part of its production throughTopping and Hydroskimming processes, yielding low-marginproducts.

Catalysts

Hydrocracker and cocker investment to take effect by 11 willimprove the companys refining margins.


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Energy Outperform

Slimmer margins loom but still a cash cow

Elif Tore YurdumOil&Gas/ConglomeratesSenior Analyst+90212 3367280

[email protected]

Price: TRY 12.30(closing date 21/11/08)

New 12M target price: TRY 23.6Previous 12M target price: TRY 23.6


ISE National 100 Index at 21,966.0 (closing date 21/11/08)

Ke fi ures2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Revenues ($ m) 17,315 24,152 17,572 16,981EBITDA ($ m) 1,069 1,216 736 755

Profit after-tax ($ m) 998 665 658 639EPS ($) 4.0 2.7 2.6 2.5EPS chng (%) 74% -33% -1% -3%DPS ($) 2.0 3.3 1.9 1.7P/E (x) 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.9EV/EBITDA (x) 1.9 1.7 2.8 2.7EV/EBIT (x) 2.1 1.8 3.1 3.0RoE (%) 33% 21% 23% 22%Dividend Yield (%) 8% 34% 23% 22%P/BV (x) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6Source: Finansinvest Research estimates.

Stock data

52 week low/high TRY 11.2 - 33.5Outstanding No of shares 250,419,200

Avg. daily shares (3m) traded in $ 20.34m

Market cap in TRY 3080m

Reuters / Bloomberg TUPRS TI / TUPRS.IS

Free float 46%

Institutional ownership 78%

Out/Under performance in '07 8%

So far in '08 3.3%

IR Contact name / Telephone Filiz Derman / +90 262 316 32 69

Company DescriptionTupras is Turkeys sole refinery, operating four oil refineries, with a total of 28.1mn tons annual crude oil processing capacity. Tupras NCI is 7.25. In an effort toincrease profitability and better match consumption trends, Tupras has beenundertaking investments to increase its white product yield, which stood at 68%as of 9M08. Diesel had a 28% share in the companys product mix, whilegasoline and jet fuel yields were 19% and 13%, respectively.

Tupras is initiating a US$1.6bn residuum upgrade project in Izmit refinery thisyear. Aimed at exploiting the imbalance between fuel oil and diesel, theresiduum upgrade investment is expected to be fully operational by 2012-2013.The project is expected to increase overall white product yield to 83% (68% in2007), NCI of Izmit refinery to 11.5 from 7.8 and overall NCI of Tupras to 9.5.We expect this investment to come to Tupras aid at an appropriate time,considering the expectations of softening in global refining margin cycle in theyears ahead. Tupras plans to finance the majority of the investment (about twothirds) through long-term loans without impacting its high dividend pay-outpolicy.

Pros

Favorable locations of Tupras refineries at the heart ofTurkeys industry region.

Only player in the market with potential entry of newcompetitors not expected before the next five years.

Strong financial structure with a cash balance of US$395mnas of Sept 08. Net of the companys financial debt, net debt isUS$199mn; 21% of net income in 9M08.

Ability to process heavy crude oils helps it to reduce crudecosts.

High storage capacity.

Cons

Excess fuel oil and gasoline capacity.

Not fully integrated thus a heavy exposure to global refiningmargins.

A relatively low complexity due to delayed investments under

state ownership until 2006.

Although the companys operations are hedged againstcurrency fluctuations with the automatic pricing mechanism,depreciation of TRY causes mostly non-cash FX losses onTRY based financial reports, therefore leading to potentialvolatility in earnings.

Although the company itself is not an oil producer, fall in oilprices lead to temporary inventory losses in financials.

Potential rise in competition in Turkey in the mid term.

Softening refining margins globally.

Global credit crunch might delay key residuum upgrade

project, tough a large proportion of the borrowing for theinvestment is planned for 2010 and 2011.

Catalysts

Capitalize on shortage for diesel via the residuum upgradeproject.

Ready for implementation of Euro 5 specifications in 2009.

Governments efforts to reduce illicit trade.

Reduction in high taxes in Turkey could spur demand,although this is not in the governments short-term agenda.


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Disclosure Appendix

This document is jointly issued by the following companies (hereinafter referred to as the "Companies"):

a)National P&K Securities S.A., Michalakopoulou 91, 115 28, Athens, Greece.Regulatory Authority : Hellenic Capital Market Commission.b)Finans Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S., Nispetiye Cad. Ak merkez B Kule Kat:2, 34330, Etiler, Istanbul, Turk eyRegulatory Authority : Capital Markets Board

None of the Companies engaged in any agreement with the subject compani es for the preparation of this report.

The present report has solely informative use. T he comments contented herein do not constitute buy, hold or sell suggestions under any circumstances. The information contained in this report including any expression of opinion has been takenfrom sources believed to be reliable but it cannot be guaranteed and no warranty or representation is given that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. The Companies and/or their associated groupcompanies or a person or persons connected with the companies may from time to time act on their own account in transactions in any securities mentioned herein. The Companies may do and may seek to do business with companies coveredin its research reports. Therefore, investors should be aware that there might be a conflict of interest that could influence the impartiality of this report. Investors should consider this report as only one of the factors influencing their investmentdecision. Securities contented in this report are subject to investment risks, including, but without being limited thereto, the loss of the initial capital invested, fluctuations of mark et prices and exchange rates, uncertainty of dividends, performanceand/or profits. This report is addressed to professional investors only and no part of this report may be reproduced or passed on in any manner without prior permission. We verify that this report has been prepared according to our regulationsand guidelines concerning conflict management. According to the Com panies regulations, the Equity Analysis Departments thereof are restricted to communicate and publish only the necessary data according to applicable laws. The Com paniesimplement the appropriate procedures to ensure Chinese walls with Investment banking. The Companies conform to the relative regulations regarding confidential information and market abuse.

This marketing communication is issued in the United Kingdom by NBG International Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation tosubscribe for or purchase or sell or solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase or sell any securities referred to herein and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection withany contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this document including any expression of opi nion has been taken from sources believed to be reliable but it cannot be guaranteed and no warranty or representation is giventhat such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed by us herein reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. NBG International Limited and/or itsassociated group companies or a person or persons connected with us may from time to time act on their own account in transactions in any securities mentioned herein or in any related investment or may act as a market maker or may haveacted in some capacity in relation to a public offering of such securities in the past. Additional information regarding this will be furnished upon request. This document is furnished to you alone and no part of this report may be reproduced orpassed on in any manner without the prior written permission of NBG International Limited. This document is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments fallingwithin Article 19(5) of the FSMA 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005; or (ii) who are persons falling within article 49(2)(a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the FSMA 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order2005; or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated. This report is directed only at such persons and must not be acted on or relied on by any other person. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is availableonly to such persons and will be engaged in only with such person.

The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions, forecasts andestimates herein reflect our judgment on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The report is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to timeNBGI or its affiliates or the principals or employees of NBGI or its affil iates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may make a marketor otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. NBGI or its affiliates or the principals or employees of NBGI or its affiliates may from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director ofa company being reported on herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from NBGI upon request.

All opinions suggestions and estimates for each company contended in this report constitute the personal views of the respective author. It is certified that the analysts personal views or specific suggestions expressed in this report were not andwill not be in any cas e linked directly or indirectly with the analysts compensation.

The Companies policy is to update research reports, as they deem appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a m aterial impact on the research view or opinions stated herein.

Disclosure Checklist for Companies mentioned & other price data information

Company Name Reuters Rating Price Price date / time Disclosure

Hellenic Petroleum HEPr.AT Neutral 5.40 21/11/08 / Closing -

Motor Oil MORr.AT Outperform 8.00 21 11 08 / Closing -

Tupras TUPRS.IS Outperform TRY12.30 21/11/08 / Closing

-

Source: National P&K Securities

1. National P&K Securities and/or its affiliate(s) has acted as manager/co-manager/adviser in the underwriting or placement of securities of this company within the past 12 months.2. National P&K Securities and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation for investment bank ing services from this company during the past 12 months.3. National P&K Securities and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in the securities of this company.4. National P&K Securities and its affiliate(s) own five percent or more of the total share capital of this company.5. The company and its affiliate(s) own five percent or more of the total share capital of National P&K Securities and its affiliates.6. National P&K Securities has sent the research report to the company prior to publication for factual verification.7. Following 6, National P&K Securities has changed the contents of the initially sent research report, with respect to: no change.8. National P&K Securities has received compensation from the company for the preparation of this research report.9. National P&K Securities has acted as a broker in share buybacks and/or own shares sales of securities of this company within the past 12 months.10. National P&K Securities has acted as an arranger and/or credit facilitator and/or advisor in the issuance of convertible bonds and/or in the provision of credit facility.

Risks and sensitivity:The views and recommendations for the companies mentioned in this daily report have various levels of risk depending on company, industry and market events. In addition, our target prices and estimates for the companies mentioned in thisdaily report are sensitive to various factors including interest rates, inflation, the local economic environment, market volatility, management continuity or other company specific events.

Ratings Distribution Greece

Outperform Neutral Underperform

Greek Equity Research Coverage (50) 56% 39% 6%

% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 54% 34% 17%

Source: National P&K Securities

Ratings Distribution Turkey

Outperform Neutral Underperform

Turkish Equity Research Coverage (64) 38% 43% 19%

% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients n.a. n.a. n.a.

Source: Finansinvest

Definition of Investment RatingsOutperform, Neutral, Underperform: Denote notional investment ratings (not recommendations) pegged to the performance of the General Index, which imply a positive, neutral and negative view respectively.Outperform: The stock is expected to perform above the General Index.Neutral: The stock is expected to perform in line with the General Index.Underperform: The stock is expected to perform below the General Index.

Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from the Companies and/or their affiliate(s) upon request.All prices and valuation multiples are based on the closing of the markets last session prior to the issue of the report, unless stated otherwise.


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National P&K Securities S.A.

Member of the Institutional Sales: Research:Athens Stock Exchange Efthimios Louziotis +30 210 7720506 [email protected] Vassilis Theodorou +30 210 7720170 [email protected] Tsoukali +30 210 7720587 [email protected] Theodore Ritsos +30 210 7720176 [email protected]

91 Michalakopoulou Str. Dimitra Triantafillopoulou +30 210 7720578 [email protected] George Boulougaris +30 210 7720171 [email protected] 28 Athens, Greece Merve Kosker +30 210 7720122 [email protected] Ioanna Katsoula +30 210 7720184 [email protected]

Zois Mpeloumpasis +30 210 7720146 [email protected] Panagiotis Kladis, CFA +30 210 7720185 [email protected]

Tel: +30 210 7720000 Damianos Papakonstantinou +30 210 7720130 [email protected] Nick Koskoletos, CFA +30 210 7720187 [email protected]: +30 210 7720001 Yorgi Papazisis +30 210 7720106 [email protected] Iakovos Kourtesis +30 210 7720251 [email protected]: [email protected] Pantelis Petritsis +30 210 7720562 [email protected] Victor Labate +30 210 7720076 [email protected]

Kostas Ntounas +30 210 7720174 [email protected]

George Vitorakis +30 210 7720151 [email protected]

Finans Yatrm Menkul Degerler A.S.Member of the Institutional Sales: Research:Istanbul Stock Exchange Oguz Bktel +90 212 3367285 [email protected] Oguz Bktel +90 212 3367285 [email protected]

Ceren Onar +90 212 3367118 [email protected] Mert Ulker, CFA +90 212 3367275 [email protected]

Nispetiye Cad. Akmerkez B Kule Kat:2 Egemen Erden +90 212 3367102 [email protected] Banu Kvc Tokal +90 212 3367278 [email protected] Etiler Istanbul Turkey Nezihi Abay +90 212 3367107 [email protected] Elif Basak Tore +90 212 3367280 [email protected]

Emre Balkeser +90 212 3367106 [email protected] Sadrettin Bagci +90 212 3367277 [email protected]: +90 212 282 1700 Mert zener +90 212 3367112 [email protected]

Fax: +90 212 282 2256 Mjde Erdoan +90 212 3367101 [email protected] Hakan Deprem +90 212 3367296 [email protected]: [email protected] Merih Filiz +90 212 3367287 [email protected] David Taranto +90 212 3367281 [email protected]

Kelly Dumankaya +90 212 3367122 [email protected] Yael Yahya +90 212 3367282 [email protected]

Sezin Temelli +90 212 3367105 [email protected] Sezgi Bie +90 212 3367293 [email protected]

zlem Ata +90 212 3367103 [email protected] Pektorosolu +90 212 3364228 [email protected]

NBG International Ltd.Old Change House , 128 Queen Victoria Str. Institutional Equity Sales:EC4V 4HR, London, UK Maria Douli, CFA +30 210 7720023 [email protected]

Andreas Kontogouris +30 210 7720141 [email protected]

Tel: +44 20 7661 5656 Nikos Kyriazis +30 210 7720160 [email protected]: +44 20 7661 5666 Maria Mitsouli +44 207 6615663 [email protected]

E-mail: [email protected] Panos Paraskevopoulos +44 207 6615646 [email protected] Shala +44 207 6615653 [email protected]

Trader: Lloyd Adams +44 207 6615691 [email protected]

Research: Alex Chan +44 207 6615687

NBGI Securities Inc.641 Lexington Avenue, Suite 1401 Sales: Dimitri Kostopoulos +1 212 634 6349 [email protected] York, NY 10022, USA Kimon Roussos +1 212 634 6347 [email protected]

Tel: +1 212 634 6345

Fax: +1 212 634 6350

see refining

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