reefer market overview trans-pacific maritime conference philip damas director, drewry supply chain...
TRANSCRIPT
Reefer market overview
Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference
Philip Damas
Director, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
[email protected] Long Beach, March 5th, 2013
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1. Resilient demand despite economic problems
2. Import patterns have changed in the past decade
3. Decline in specialised reefer fleet
4. Expansion of container reefer capacity
5. Increase in containerised market share
6. The $1,500/reefer 40ft GRI of January 2013
7. Fewer options for shippers
8. Conclusions and Q&A
Agenda
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1. Resilient demand despite economic problems
Worldwide seaborne trade of perishable reefer cargoes increased by 4% in 2011 (numbers for 2012 not available, yet):
–Average historical of about 3%–Some commodity sectors
growing faster–Not just a small market
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
Drewry forecasts continued growth of 4.5% a year in next few years:
–Will there be sufficient capacity?
Growth in seaborne reefer volumes vs global GDP
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2. Import patterns have changed in the past decade
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
Distribution of global trade in perishables by import region in 2001
Distribution of global trade in perishables by import region in 2011
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3. Decline in specialised reefer fleet
Specialised reefer vessels being scrapped:
–39 scrapped in 2011–74 scrapped in 2012
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
Specialised reefer vessels’ age profile:
–Ships are getting old–New ships delivered: zero!
Age profile of specialised reefer fleet for 100,000+ cft
(no of vessels)
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3. Decline in specialised reefer fleet (continued)
10 years of decline for the specialised reefer fleet
… progressively shrinking fleet
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
The specialised reefer fleet (100,000+ cft) during 2001-2011
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4. Expansion of container reefer capacity
Global reefer container capacity is increasing:–Up 8% in 2011–Estimated increase of 6% in 2012
Source: Drewry’s Reefer Shipping Market Review & Forecast 2012/2013
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5. Increase in containerised market share
Containers are winning the battle
Container reefer fleet:
Up to 91% of world reefer capacity and growing
Specialised reefer fleet:
Down to 9% of world reefer capacity – supply reduced
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6. The $1,500/reefer 40ft GRI of January 2013
“Maersk Line Chief Executive Officer Soren Skou said Tuesday at a refrigerated logistics conference in Antwerp that his company plans to hike reefer rates by roughly 30% on a global basis from Jan 1, 2013.”
Drewry benchmarking of actual increase in reefer freight rates:
–Varied considerably between routes, varied between carriers
–Up to 33% increase between November 2011 and February 2013
Drewry reefer container freight rate benchmarks (Nov 2012=100)
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7. Fewer options for shippers
Specialised reefer ships are full
Box carriers less willing/able to invest
Capacity bottleneck, repeat of January 2013 GRI?
but…
Major reefer shippers have huge negotiating power over shipping lines
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8. Conclusions
Worldwide seaborne trade of perishable reefer cargoes is a growing market
Import patterns have changed in the past decade Very fast decline in the specialised reefer fleet Expansion of the reefer containership fleet and box fleet Containers now dominate reefer shipping Impact of $1,500/FEU GRI
What is to stop it happening again in future years?
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We are privately owned with research and advisory teams in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai.
Drewry was founded in 1970 as a provider of independent information and advice to the global maritime industry. Since then we have worked with over 4,000 clients in more than 100 countries.
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Thank you. Any questions?
Philip Damas [email protected]