recruiting in the year 2005 --or thereabouts-- some thoughts on the future

© Copyright, 2001Global Learning Resources, Inc.

Recruiting in the Year 2005--Or Thereabouts--

Some Thoughts on the Future

Kevin B. WheelerGlobal Learning Resources, Inc.


Over Next 5 Years. . .

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000(est)

Pe

rce

nt

U.S. Unemployment Rates 1991-2000

•More rational stock market

•Employment shift from large companies–Small firms will dominate

–Free agency will climb


Workforce Trends

• Population growth down

• Skilled workers down

• Older, aging workforce

• Changing generational attitudes

• Increasing diversity


Population: 3,819,762 (July 2000 est.) Age structure: 0-14 years: 23% (male 440,824; female 419,740) 15-64 years: 66% (male 1,263,710; female 1,254,958) 65 years and over: 11% (male 191,511; female 249,019) (2000 est.) Population growth rate: 1.17% (2000 est.)

Comparison rates: US 1.0%

Japan 0.2%China 1.0%

New Zealand Stats


20502040203020202010200019901980197019601950

80

60

40

20

0

Percent

0-14 years old65 years and older

Dependents-Developed WorldYoung and Old as % of Working Age Population

0 - 14 = 27% 65+ = 22%


Unskilled vs. Skilled Jobs

1950 2000

60% Unskilled

20% Skilled

65% Skilled

15% Unskilled

Source: Milken Foundation


Engineering and engineering technologies declined 16 percent between 1986-87 and 1991-92, and then posted a further 3 percent decline between 1991-92 and 1996-97.

Computer and information sciences grew rapidly during the 1970s and mid 1980s, but dropped 37 percent between 1986-87 and 1996-97.


Towers Perrin Findings

• Employees generally are "in the market," in some way, most of the time.

• Employees don’t place much emphasis on a long-term relationship with a particular employer.

• Employees define their relationship with their employer in increasingly complex ways.

• Employees care about different things when they’re joining a company than when they’re deciding whether to stay or how much of their discretionary effort to give.

Source: Towers Perrin, August 2001


Towers Perrin Employee Categories

Balanced Careerist

42%

Co Careerist28%

Fast-Tracker12%

Experimenter12%

Free Agent6%

Source: Towers Perrin, August 2001


Three Generations Interact

• Baby boomers– 36-54 years old– 28% of the population

• Gen X– 24-35 years old– 16% of the population

• Gen Y– 6-23 years old– 25% of population


Smiles

* Then: Long Hair* Now: Longing for hair

* Then: Keg.* Now: EKG.

* Then: Moving to California because it's cool.* Now: Moving to California because it's warm.

*Then: Getting out to a new, hip joint.* Now: Getting a new hip joint.

* Then: Rolling Stones.* Now: Kidney stones.

* Then: Growing pot.* Now: Growing pot belly.

* Then: Trying to look like Marlon Brando or Elizabeth Taylor.* Now: Trying NOT to look like Marlon Brando or Elizabeth Taylor.

* Then: Take acid.* Now: Take antacid

* Then: Passing the driver's test.* Now: Passing the vision test.


Different Strategies for Different Generations

Boomers-Career path-Security-Promotion/Status-Something to make a difference

Boomers-Career path-Security-Promotion/Status-Something to make a difference

Gen X-What in it for me?-Money/Options-Titles & power-Focus on NOW

Gen X-What in it for me?-Money/Options-Titles & power-Focus on NOW Gen Y

-Leadership/Mentorship's-Project-oriented work-Egalitarian/Social concerns-Balance-Fair pay for work done

Gen Y-Leadership/Mentorship's-Project-oriented work-Egalitarian/Social concerns-Balance-Fair pay for work done


Labor/Skills Supply Changes Everything We Think About

Recruiting

Fundamental Premise:


Supply & Demand

• Most of 20th century, supply outpaced demand.

• Primary demand was for unskilled to semi-skilled workers.

• Employers could choose from a wide variety of candidates.

• Employers set salaries and conditions.


Recruiter’s 20th Century Roles

• Screened resumes/CVs

• Second guessed hiring managers

• Spent lots of time interviewing candidates

• Focused energy and time on administrivia – scheduling, coordinating, arranging.


The “Old” Model

• Warehouse mentality- Store CVs

• Primitive “forklifts” and retrieval systems

• Poor “stocking” systems

• Applicant tracking systems are internal and do not lower costs or improve speed of hire.

• Most focus on INTERNAL, BACK-END


Current Supply Model

SCREENING

OUT

WALL

Screened Resumes

ADVERTISE IN LOCAL PAPER OR ON A JOB BOARD

POSITION

A

Resumes Received


Supply & Demand Changes

• By 2005 skills demand will outpace supply in almost all categories.

• Candidates will choose from a variety of employers.

• Employers will have to “select in” instead of out.

• Candidates will set many of their work conditions.


What Do You Do?

• New Strategies & New Recruiting Skills


Understand the Trends

• Connecting– Tools are linking and vendors are merging features

• Collaboration– Third party agencies, internal recruiters, candidates,

employees are working together

• Convergence– Roles are blurring, functions are merging, new types of

employment and employees emerging


C+C+C

ATS

Screening

ContactMgmt

TargetedMktng

EducationalInstitutes

JobBoards

Agencies

Strategic Linkings

Convergence

CorpRecruiters

ConnectionsCollaboration


5 Key Themes

1. Everything is Internet-based

2. Branding & creation of employment identities are vital

3. Its mostly about relationship development & management

4. Focus is around a talent strategy

5. There have to be multiple sources and categories of candidates -- competitive intelligence


New Model

On-going WebCreated Relationships

Referrals

Alumni Relationships

Web Visitors

Proprietary Talent Community

Open Positions

-Better defined-Better Planned-Diverse sources

Strategy is key. Timelines are short.Quality has to be high. Focus is on relationships and candidate experience.

•Interns•High School Programs•Employee promotions

Development

•Specialized Job Boards•Non-Traditional Events•Elderly•Handicapped•Free Agency

New Sources

SCREENING

JOB MATCHING


Help Wanted Advertising Trends

Economy.com (left), The Conference Board (right)


New Concepts

• No large resume warehouses – talent communities

• All-the-time communication via email, instant messaging, e-letters, etc.

• On-line screening – better matching

• Focus is EXTERNAL, FRONT END


Emerging & Connecting Technologies

• Supply & demand data, job indexes, salary information

• Planning tools and templates

• Candidate targeted marketing

• Screening & assessment tools

• Candidate Relationship Management tools

• Communication suites (email, chat, e-news)


What IS This?

• Guru.com

“We're a new kind of home for independents. We provide them with job opportunities, career guidance, and support services - and we don't take a cut of their pay when we find them work.

We help companies find great talent fast. And we charge them in a revolutionary way - one flat fee that's dramatically less expensive than the markups charged by traditional recruiters.?


And These?

• eWork-eWork operates one of the largest talent marketplaces on the Web with over 300,000 registered users.

• eLance -the leading professional services marketplace for web-based projects used by businesses worldwide. Buyers tap into a highly qualified pool of professional talent and get a wide range of projects completed online

• Salary.com- offers job finder, candidate finder, job links and career fairs

• Free Agent.com- Barter, find work, look for workers, list projects


What is a Talent Strategy?

• A forecast of likely demand

• A knowledge of likely supply

• A methodology of getting at or developing the supply or of changing the demand

• An understanding of your capabilities

• A prioritization of need


Capabilities

SUPPLYFORECAST

DEMANDFORECAST

TACTICSRESOURCESTALENT

STRATEGY

The people andbudget you have

A step-by-step process

•Workforce assessments•Competency analysis•Succession plans•Internal transfer opportunities

•Recruiting Skills•Corporate University•e-Learning strategy

•Turnover knowledge•Retention plans•Growth targets

•Number of available skilled people•Number you can develop•Career development projections


A Candidate-Centric World

• Candidate-centric mindsets will take over from position-centric views– Candidates are driving

• All recruiting will become one-to-one. • Employment categories will fade away.• Focus will turn to selling each candidate on

a custom position – probably with custom pay and benefits.


Emerging Ideas

• Focusing on presenting jobs as if they were products– sales mentality

– career benefits stressed, guarantees

– on-going development focus

• Emergence of “new” talent agencies– Combining employee development & acquisition

functions into one

• Development of Talent Strategies


World Class Recruiting System

• Based on the Internet.• Uses technology extensively for finding,

assessing, communicating with, selling and administratively tracking candidates.

• Focused on creating and fulfilling an overall talent strategy.

• Involved in both finding and creating skilled staff.• Highly collaborative.


World Class Recruiter

• Collaborates and shares rather than competes.• Creates an image and a brand for their organization.• Is a master at marketing and selling the organizations and

the positions.• Becomes a master of identifying and tapping diverse

sources of talent.• Understands the power of competitive intelligence.• Develops talent pools and communities.• Creative experimenter


Are You Ready?

Thanks.

Kevin WheelerGlobal Learning Resources, Inc.California, [email protected]

recruiting in the year 2005 --or thereabouts-- some thoughts on the future

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