RECOVERY and RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION RECONSTRUCTION

after the after the PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE

CHOOSING OPTIONS THAT WILL CHOOSING OPTIONS THAT WILL FACILITATE LONG-TERM RECOVERYFACILITATE LONG-TERM RECOVERY

THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTERTHE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER

OCTOBER 8, 2005 PAKISTAN OCTOBER 8, 2005 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE

LONG-TERM RECOVERY NEEDS LONG-TERM RECOVERY NEEDS AFTER PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKEAFTER PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE NEEDNEED: 2 TO 3 MILLION NEW DWELLINGS : 2 TO 3 MILLION NEW DWELLINGS

THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. NEED:NEED: NEW SCHOOLS THAT ARE NEW SCHOOLS THAT ARE

EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. NEED:NEED: NEW HOSPITALS THAT ARE NEW HOSPITALS THAT ARE

EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. NEED:NEED: INFRASTRUCTURE THAT IS INFRASTRUCTURE THAT IS

EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.

GOAL GOAL GOAL GOAL

TO MARSHAL AND TO MARSHAL AND INTEGRATE THE INTEGRATE THE COMMUNITY’S COMMUNITY’S STAPLE STAPLE FORCES,..FORCES,..

……GIVING ALL GIVING ALL SECTORS SECTORS EQUITYEQUITY IN IN DESIGNING DESIGNING PROCESSES FOR PROCESSES FOR BECOMING BECOMING EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.RESILIENT.

TO MARSHAL AND TO MARSHAL AND INTEGRATE THE INTEGRATE THE COMMUNITY’S COMMUNITY’S STAPLE STAPLE FORCES,..FORCES,..

……GIVING ALL GIVING ALL SECTORS SECTORS EQUITYEQUITY IN IN DESIGNING DESIGNING PROCESSES FOR PROCESSES FOR BECOMING BECOMING EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.RESILIENT.

OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES

TO BECOME TO BECOME RESILIENT TO RESILIENT TO GROUND SHAKING, GROUND SHAKING, LANDSLIDES, AND LANDSLIDES, AND AFTERSHOCKSAFTERSHOCKS

TO BECOME TO BECOME RESILIENT TO RESILIENT TO GROUND SHAKING, GROUND SHAKING, LANDSLIDES, AND LANDSLIDES, AND AFTERSHOCKSAFTERSHOCKS

TO ADOPT AND TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICY MANDATES POLICY MANDATES FOR PREVENMTION, FOR PREVENMTION, MITIGATION, MITIGATION, PREPAREDNESS, PREPAREDNESS, EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY AND RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONRECONSTRUCTION

TO ADOPT AND TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICY MANDATES POLICY MANDATES FOR PREVENMTION, FOR PREVENMTION, MITIGATION, MITIGATION, PREPAREDNESS, PREPAREDNESS, EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY AND RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONRECONSTRUCTION

OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES

USE STATE-OF-USE STATE-OF-ART TOOLS ART TOOLS FOR FOR ASSESSING ASSESSING HAZARDS AND HAZARDS AND RISK RISK (E.G., (E.G., GROUND GROUND SHAKING MAPS SHAKING MAPS AND HAZUSAND HAZUS))

USE STATE-OF-USE STATE-OF-ART TOOLS ART TOOLS FOR FOR ASSESSING ASSESSING HAZARDS AND HAZARDS AND RISK RISK (E.G., (E.G., GROUND GROUND SHAKING MAPS SHAKING MAPS AND HAZUSAND HAZUS))

USE PROVEN USE PROVEN TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCING FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY IN THE BUILT IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT ((E.G., ENERGY E.G., ENERGY DISSIPATIONDISSIPATION))

USE PROVEN USE PROVEN TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCING FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY IN THE BUILT IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT ((E.G., ENERGY E.G., ENERGY DISSIPATIONDISSIPATION))

PROCESSES FOR BECOMING PROCESSES FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENTEARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

PROCESSES FOR BECOMING PROCESSES FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENTEARTHQUAKE RESILIENT

INCREASED PUBLIC INCREASED PUBLIC AWARENESSAWARENESS

IMPROVED IMPROVED PROFESSIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION AND EDUCATION AND TRAININGTRAINING

EXPANDED MONITORING EXPANDED MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMSAND WARNING SYSTEMS

INCREASED PUBLIC INCREASED PUBLIC AWARENESSAWARENESS

IMPROVED IMPROVED PROFESSIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION AND EDUCATION AND TRAININGTRAINING

EXPANDED MONITORING EXPANDED MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMSAND WARNING SYSTEMS

MODERN BUILDING MODERN BUILDING CODES FOR NEW CODES FOR NEW BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

MODERN STANDARDS MODERN STANDARDS FOR NEW FOR NEW INFRASTRUCTUREINFRASTRUCTURE

STRENGTHENING AND STRENGTHENING AND RETROFIT FOR EXISTING RETROFIT FOR EXISTING STRUCTURESSTRUCTURES

EXPANDED EXPANDED INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONCOOPERATION

MODERN BUILDING MODERN BUILDING CODES FOR NEW CODES FOR NEW BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

MODERN STANDARDS MODERN STANDARDS FOR NEW FOR NEW INFRASTRUCTUREINFRASTRUCTURE

STRENGTHENING AND STRENGTHENING AND RETROFIT FOR EXISTING RETROFIT FOR EXISTING STRUCTURESSTRUCTURES

EXPANDED EXPANDED INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIONCOOPERATION

STARTING POINTS STARTING POINTS STARTING POINTS STARTING POINTS

IN-COUNTRY BASIC IN-COUNTRY BASIC AND APPLIED AND APPLIED RESEARCHRESEARCH

LESSONS FROM LESSONS FROM THE OCTOBER 8, THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER2005 DISASTER

IN-COUNTRY BASIC IN-COUNTRY BASIC AND APPLIED AND APPLIED RESEARCHRESEARCH

LESSONS FROM LESSONS FROM THE OCTOBER 8, THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER2005 DISASTER

MAPSMAPS INFORMATIONINFORMATION GUIDELINES FOR GUIDELINES FOR

APPLICATIONS BY APPLICATIONS BY EMERGENCY EMERGENCY MANAGERS, MANAGERS, BUILDING BUILDING OFFICIALS, AND OFFICIALS, AND URBAN PLANNERSURBAN PLANNERS

MAPSMAPS INFORMATIONINFORMATION GUIDELINES FOR GUIDELINES FOR

APPLICATIONS BY APPLICATIONS BY EMERGENCY EMERGENCY MANAGERS, MANAGERS, BUILDING BUILDING OFFICIALS, AND OFFICIALS, AND URBAN PLANNERSURBAN PLANNERS

LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE

THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED ALONG THE MAIN BOUNDARY ALONG THE MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST ZONE (MBT)THRUST ZONE (MBT). .

THE MBT RUNS ALONG THE THE MBT RUNS ALONG THE HIMALAYAN ARC FOR ABOUT HIMALAYAN ARC FOR ABOUT 2,500 KM.2,500 KM...

LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE

CONSTRUCTION WAS MAINLY CONSTRUCTION WAS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE FLOOD- CONCENTRATED ON THE FLOOD- PLAIN DEPOSITS OF THE NEEHLAN, PLAIN DEPOSITS OF THE NEEHLAN, JAHLUM, AND KUNHAR RIVERS.JAHLUM, AND KUNHAR RIVERS.

BUILDINGS IM MUZAFFARABAD SITED BUILDINGS IM MUZAFFARABAD SITED ON SAND AND GRAVEL DEPOSITS ON SAND AND GRAVEL DEPOSITS WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED.WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED.

BUILDINGS SITED ON ROCK WERE NOT BUILDINGS SITED ON ROCK WERE NOT SEVERELY DAMAGED. SEVERELY DAMAGED.

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

RISK MANAGEMENTRISK MANAGEMENT

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL

EXPOSURE MODELVULNERABILTY

MODEL

SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING

LOCATION OF STRUCTURE

QUALITY OF DESIGN AND

CONSTRUCTION

RESISTANCE TO LATERAL FORCES

IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF

STRUCTURE

POLITICAL PROCESS

ACCEPTABLE RISK

MITIGATION COSTS

EXPERIENCE AND RESEARCH

DAMAGE ALDORITHM

INCORPORATE NEW KNOWLEDGE

INSPECTION AND REGULATION

ADOPTION AND ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF IMPLEMENTATION OF

PUBLIC POLICIESPUBLIC POLICIES

ADOPTION AND ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF IMPLEMENTATION OF

PUBLIC POLICIESPUBLIC POLICIES

ASSESSMENT OF ASSESSMENT OF RISKRISK

ASSESSMENT OF ASSESSMENT OF RISKRISK

OPTIONS FOR OPTIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENCERESILIENCE

OPTIONS FOR OPTIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENCERESILIENCE

WHAT IS THE BENEFIT/COST OF EACH ONE?WHAT IS THE BENEFIT/COST OF EACH ONE?

HOW QUICKLY CAN EACH OPTION BE HOW QUICKLY CAN EACH OPTION BE IMPLEMENTED?IMPLEMENTED?

WHAT IS THE BENEFIT/COST OF EACH ONE?WHAT IS THE BENEFIT/COST OF EACH ONE?

HOW QUICKLY CAN EACH OPTION BE HOW QUICKLY CAN EACH OPTION BE IMPLEMENTED?IMPLEMENTED?

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

BUILDING CODE WITH BUILDING CODE WITH SEISMIC DESIGN SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONSPROVISIONS

PREVENTS COLLAPSE PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGEOF LIFE AND DAMAGE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST < 1,000< 1,000

BUILDING CODE WITH BUILDING CODE WITH SEISMIC DESIGN SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONSPROVISIONS

PREVENTS COLLAPSE PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGEOF LIFE AND DAMAGE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST < 1,000< 1,000

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

STANDARDS FOR STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMSLIFELINE SYSTEMS

PROTECTS PROTECTS COMMUNITY COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1,0001,000

STANDARDS FOR STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMSLIFELINE SYSTEMS

PROTECTS PROTECTS COMMUNITY COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1,0001,000

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

DEMOLITION OF DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE HAZARD COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

PREVENT COLLAPSE PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE AND LOSS OF LIFE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,0001,000

DEMOLITION OF DEMOLITION OF COLLAPSE HAZARD COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

PREVENT COLLAPSE PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE AND LOSS OF LIFE

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,0001,000

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

SEISMIC ZONATIONSEISMIC ZONATION

AVOIDS LOCATIONS AVOIDS LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SHAKING, TO STRONG SHAKING, SURFACE FAULTING, SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE AND SOIL FAILURE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 100100

SEISMIC ZONATIONSEISMIC ZONATION

AVOIDS LOCATIONS AVOIDS LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SHAKING, TO STRONG SHAKING, SURFACE FAULTING, SURFACE FAULTING, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND SOIL FAILURE AND SOIL FAILURE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 100100

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

RETROFIT AND RETROFIT AND STRENGTHENINGSTRENGTHENING

PREVENT COLLAPSE; PREVENT COLLAPSE; ELIMINATE ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES; VULNERABILITIES; REDUCE DAMAGE REDUCE DAMAGE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 100100

RETROFIT AND RETROFIT AND STRENGTHENINGSTRENGTHENING

PREVENT COLLAPSE; PREVENT COLLAPSE; ELIMINATE ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES; VULNERABILITIES; REDUCE DAMAGE REDUCE DAMAGE

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 100100

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

EDUCATION AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING TO TRAINING TO IMPLEMENT CHANGEIMPLEMENT CHANGE

EXPANDS EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY POLITICAL CAPACITY

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST < < 100100

EDUCATION AND EDUCATION AND TRAINING TO TRAINING TO IMPLEMENT CHANGEIMPLEMENT CHANGE

EXPANDS EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY POLITICAL CAPACITY

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST < < 100100

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

SOILSOIL REMEDIATIONREMEDIATION

PREVENTS PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS LATERAL SPREADS

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100100

SOILSOIL REMEDIATIONREMEDIATION

PREVENTS PREVENTS LIQUEFACTION, LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, AND LANDSLIDES, AND LATERAL SPREADS LATERAL SPREADS

1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 100100

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN BASED DESIGN

PREVENTS LOSS OF PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE FUNCTION AND USE OF MOST IMPORTANT OF MOST IMPORTANT STRUCTURES STRUCTURES

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 100100

PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE BASED DESIGN BASED DESIGN

PREVENTS LOSS OF PREVENTS LOSS OF FUNCTION AND USE FUNCTION AND USE OF MOST IMPORTANT OF MOST IMPORTANT STRUCTURES STRUCTURES

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 100100

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

URBAN AND LAND-URBAN AND LAND-USE PLANNINGUSE PLANNING

FACILITATES FACILITATES AVOIDANCE AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES STRATEGIES

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1010

URBAN AND LAND-URBAN AND LAND-USE PLANNINGUSE PLANNING

FACILITATES FACILITATES AVOIDANCE AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES STRATEGIES

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1010

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

DISASTER DISASTER SCENARIONS SCENARIONS

FACILITATES FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR PREPARATION FOR EXPECTED AND EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED UNEXPECTED

1< 1< BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < 10 < 10

DISASTER DISASTER SCENARIONS SCENARIONS

FACILITATES FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR PREPARATION FOR EXPECTED AND EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED UNEXPECTED

1< 1< BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < 10 < 10

BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST BENEFIT/COST

RELOCATION AND RELOCATION AND REROUTING REROUTING

REDUCES REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSSDAMAGE AND LOSS

1< 1< BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1010

RELOCATION AND RELOCATION AND REROUTING REROUTING

REDUCES REDUCES LIKELIHOOD OF LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGE AND LOSSDAMAGE AND LOSS

1< 1< BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1010

BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST

NON-STRUCTURAL NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATIONMITIGATION

PROTECTS PROTECTS CONTENTS AND CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT EQUIPMENT

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1,0001,000

NON-STRUCTURAL NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATIONMITIGATION

PROTECTS PROTECTS CONTENTS AND CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT EQUIPMENT

1 < 1 < BENEFIT/COSTBENEFIT/COST < < 1,0001,000

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

RISK MANAGEMENTRISK MANAGEMENT