TOWARDS PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR

POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY (PEPPER)

EXAMPLES: TOKAI REGION IN JAPAN

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

2015: EARTHQUAKES ARE A

GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARD

• FLOODS

• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

• EARTHQUAKES

• DROUGHTS

• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

• ETC.

2015: IT IS PAST TIME TO

SPEED UP THE LONG-TERM

RECOVERY PROCESS FOR

EARTHQUAKES

(AND TSUNAMIS)

TECTONIC

DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION

FAILURE

SITE

AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO

HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT

(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION

AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF

UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-

STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES

OF

DAMAGE

“DISASTER

LABORATORIES”

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF

INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE

RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE

RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF

BUILDINGS

FLOODING

INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL

AND VERTICAL EVACUATION

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF

TSUNAMI

CAUSES

OF

DAMAGE

“DISASTER

LABORATORIES”

10 MILLION EARTHQUAKES

• Only about 110 of the 10 million

earthquakes of all sizes that

occur somewhere in the world

each year are large enough and

close enough to a community

to cause a disaster, - - -

DILEMMAS

• - - - which creates a multitude

of local and regional dilemmas

about what to do, both before

and after the quake, to shorten

the recovery process.

THE SOLUTION:PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR

POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY

(PEPPER)

EXAMPLE: TOKAI, JAPAN

WHERE WILL THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE

DISASTER IN JAPAN OCCUR?

• A difficult question, but ---

• It is the one that was being asked

before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU

earthquake catastrophe, and TOKAI

was the answer then and now.

MAIN IDEA

Each earthquake disaster throughout the

world provides insights on: 1)

Preparedness, 2) Protection/prevention,

3) Early Warning (Tsunami), 4) Emergency

Response, and 5) Recovery and

Reconstruction

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOTHE TOKAI, JAPAN EARTHQUAKE

ZONE

PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING

A probabilistic ground shaking hazard

map integrates key aspects of geology,

geophysics, and seismology in a

consistent way to define the Tokai

hazard model, which can be combined

with Exposure and Vulnerability models

to define the Tokai risk model.

HAZARD MODEL

ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO

EXPOSURE

MODEL

VULNERABILITY

MODEL

LOCATION

RISK

REGIONAL MAP

TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:

TECTONICS

• The Nankai trough marks the

boundary where the Philippines

tectonic plate is subducting

beneath Japan (which is a part

of the Eurasian plate).

LOCATION OF TOKAI

TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:

TECTONICS

• At present, the land near

Shizuoka is sinking toward the

Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.

• Japan’s Earthquake Research

Institute is on record that the

Tokai earthquake is eminent.

TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:

TECTONICS

• The zone along Tokai has not

ruptured since 1854.

TOKAI HAZARD MODEL:

TECTONICS

• Scientists believe that the

recurrence interval of large-

magnitude earthquakes along

this zone is 100-150 years.

PRE-EARTHQUAKE

MONITORING

• The Government of Japan is currently

deploying strain meters throughout the

Tokai area to monitor the slip with a

goal of providing as much advance

warning as possible before the Tokai

zone earthquake occurs.

PRE- EARTHQUAKE

PLANNING

• The Government of Japan has a pre-

earthquake action plan based on the

concept of “pre-slip.”

• Pre-slip is based on laboratory

experiments that indicate that a rock

undergoes slip for a short, but

predictable time, before failing.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IN THE

TOKAI AREA

• Landslides are likely at 6,449

specific locations

• 58,402 specific structures and their

related infrastructure are

susceptible to strong ground

shaking, damage, power outages,

and quake-related fires

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

PEPPER

Simulating what Southern California is

likely to experience in the inevitable

future major earthquake

- Source: US Geological Survey

Southern California is prone to moderate-to-large-to great-magnitude earthquakes, because it is located near the boundary between two major tectonic plates marked by the San Andreas fault, where much, but not all, of the stress release happens.

The scenario is based on the

Southern California Hazard,

Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk

models developed from

monitoring, research, and post-

earthquakes studies

(especially before and after the

1994 Northridge earthquake)

SAN ANDREAS

The “Big One” occurred on the San

Andreas fault in 1857, whereas,

many notable moderate-to-large-

magnitude earthquakes have

occurred on “blind” thrust faults

(e.g., Northridge in 1994) in the area

BE READY to recover from an inevitable earthquake that could

cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion in economic losses.

Identification of the physical, social and

economic consequences of a major

earthquake in Tokai, Japan or Southern

California will enable end users to

identify what they can change now—

—before the earthquake—to

shorten recovery from the

catastrophic impacts after the

inevitable “big ones” occur,

probably in the near future.

GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

FLOODS

SEVERE WIND STORMS

EARTHQUAKES

DROUGHTS

LANDSLIDES

WILDFIRES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

TERRORISM

INCREASED TECHNICAL

AND POLITICL CAPACITY

OF COMMUNITY TO COPE

INCREASED OWNERSHIP

AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE

AND EXPERIENCE

IMPROVE ON PAST

PERFORMANCE

YOUR

COMMUNITY

DATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARDS

•INVENTORY

•VULNERABILITY

•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: DISASTER

RESILIENCE

•PROTECTION

•PEPAREDNESS

•EARLY WARNING

•EMERGENCY RESPONSE

•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.

FIVE PILLARS OF

RESILIENCE

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM

GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES

BEING PREPARED INCLUDES PRE-

EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR POST-

EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY (PEPPER)