recent migration trends and the refugee crisis - jean christophe dumont - oecd global parliamentary...
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THE OECD INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION OUTLOOK 2015
AND THE REFUGEE CRISIS
Jean-Christophe Dumont Head of International Migration (ELS) [email protected] 1 October, 2015
Highlights from the
2015 OECD International
Migration Outlook
Permanent flows to OECD countries have been
on the rise – even prior to the refugee crisis
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
4.1
4.3
3.5
4.0
4.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (e)
Millions
14%
8%
35% 8%
5%
30% Work
Accomp. family of workers
Family
Humanitarian
Other
Free movements
Evolution of permanent migration inflows to OECD countries
Distribution of permanent migration inflows
to OECD countries by category in 2013
% of foreign-trained doctors, 2005/06 and 2012-14
There has been a large increase in the number
of foreign-trained doctors and nurses virtually
everywhere
Drivers of migration of health care professionals:
• EU enlargement;
• Global economic crisis;
• Adoption of the WHO Code (2010);
• Improved domestic training and education.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005-06 2012-14
Expatriation rates of doctors in 2010/11
African countries have the highest
incidence of medical brain drain
The Refugee Crisis
In 2015, asylum seeking will be at an all-time
high
0
200
400
600
800
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
2000
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
2007
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
2014
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
OECD
EU
Germany
401
652
269
476
85
173
Jan-Jul2014
Jan-Jul2015
OECD
EU
Germany
Evolution of number of new asylum seekers,
1980-2014
2015 vs. 2014:
January to July
Syria is the main origin country, but it accounted for only
14% of the asylum flows to the OECD in the first
semester of 2015
1st semester 2013
OECD Total =250 000
1st semester 2014
OECD Total =300 000
1st semester 2015
OECD Total =500 000
The number of asylum seekers from Syria, Afghanistan,
Albania and Iraq has increased dramatically since April
0
5
10
15
20
201
3M
01
201
3M
02
201
3M
03
201
3M
04
201
3M
05
201
3M
06
201
3M
07
2013M
08
201
3M
09
201
3M
10
201
3M
11
201
3M
12
201
4M
01
201
4M
02
201
4M
03
201
4M
04
201
4M
05
201
4M
06
201
4M
07
201
4M
08
201
4M
09
201
4M
10
201
4M
11
2014M
12
201
5M
01
201
5M
02
201
5M
03
201
5M
04
201
5M
05
201
5M
06
Th
ou
sa
nd
s Syria
Afghanistan
Albania
Eritrea
Iraq
Kosovo
Germany, Hungary and Austria account for half
of the total newly-registered flows
1st semester 2013
OECD Total =250 000
1st semester 2014
OECD Total =300 000
1st semester 2015
OECD Total =500 000
In per-capita terms, Hungary, Austria and Sweden
have been the most affected countries thus far
7 714
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Jan-Jul 2014 Jan-Jul 2015
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
2012 2013 2014
New asylum seekers per million population in selected OECD countries
The new inflows no longer come primarily
through the Central Mediterranean
Source: Detections of illegal border crossings on the basis of Frontex data, the Economist, OECD Secretariat
I. Unprecedented numbers
II. Strong concentration of asylum seekers in just a handful of
entry points and destination countries
III. Advances in communication technology and the emergence of
new smuggling routes leads to rapidly changing situations
IV. Diversity of origin countries and deterioration of the situation in
transit countries / countries of temporary refuge
V. Unaccompanied minors
VI. Large differences in the skills and qualifications of refugees
VII. Many crises in parallel in countries relatively close to Europe
with little prospect for improvement in the near future
VIII. Part of the public opinion in several European countries is
hostile to further migration flows, including refugees
Why is this refugee crisis different ?
Priorities for policy
Tackle the humanitarian urgency (accomodation, processing, integration into school etc.)
Reinforce cooperation with countries of origin and transit
Anticipate possible policy responses in light of alternative scenarios for future developments
Enforce and organise returns
Tackle the fear regarding migrants in the public debate
Integrate refugees and their children into our societies and economies (language courses, assessment and development of skills, engage with employers)
For further information:
www.oecd.org/migration
15/11
Thank you for your attention