Recent Birth Trends from a State and National Perspective:

An Overview

Mark FlotowIllinois Center for Health Statistics

NAPHSIS/NCHS Joint Annual Meeting4 June 2013Phoenix, AZ

Factors Affecting Fertility Decisions and Outcomes: A Partial Listing

Cultural/Societal:- general education, family influences, income, insurance/healthcare availability, public environment, religion, support network, cultural background/influences

Personal/Physical:- partner factors, “intendedness,” frequency and timing of intercourse, infertility issues/sterility, personal beliefs and desires, age, personal economics & economic perception, contraceptive use and/or availability

Pregnancy Outcomes:- fetal demise (stillbirth/spontaneous abortion, induced abortion, maternal mortality) and live birth

Take-home Message: It’s Complicated, making Fertility Forecasting a Fickle Affair

Recent History of Resident Births for Selected States

200,000

160,000

120,000

**

Year

B IRTHS

Now, Add Some More Recent History . . .

200,000

160,000

120,000B IRTHS

Year

**

And Now, Add the Most Recent History . . .

200,000

160,000

120,000B IRTHS

Year

**

So, What’s Different Lately?

To paraphrase a politician: “It’s the economy, stupid,” right?

While the previous graph had only a sample of our jurisdictions, this sort of synchronicity in trends has not been seen since perhaps the “baby boom” of the 1950s and 1960s

This birth trend session is about the “whats,” not the “whys” or the “hows”

In late 2012, a handful of national reports and publications pointed out recent declining birth numbers, especially as they translate into fertility rates.

NAPHSIS members represent a primary source of such numbers; thus we collectively have our finger close to the fertility pulse of the nation. And our timeliness can matter.

And This Is Important Because . . . ?

To paraphrase another politician: a falling/rising/changing tide affects all boats (or what I call “cascading consequences”)

- Birthing hospitals/NICUs- Birth certificate sales (of all types and stripes)- Immunizations, newborn screening, WIC, MCH, etc.- School enrollment- Who’s going to pay for my Social Security?

It’s all part of a “demographic glacier” in motion that’s bigger than us in this room, and it is part of the individual decisions made across our nation, or even the world, that collectively impacts our lives, both professionally and personally.