recent advances at the national centers for environmental prediction
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Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP University of Arizona October 21, 2004. Overview. Define NCEP Today’s Model Suite Recent Advancements - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP
University of ArizonaOctober 21, 2004
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Overview
• Define NCEP• Today’s Model Suite• Recent Advancements
– Climate Forecast System– WRF– Wave Watch III– Air Quality
• JCSDA• Future Plans: Models
– ESMF – Hybrid Approach– Ensembles (NAEFS)
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Define NCEP
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NCEP Mission Statement
NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.
Space Environment CenterSpace Environment Center
Storm Prediction CenterStorm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather CenterAviation Weather CenterNCEP Central Operations NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction CenterTropical Prediction Center
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NCEP’s Future Location
Current LocationNOAA Science Center
World Weather BuildingCamp Springs
New LocationNOAA Center for
Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park
(Early FY08)
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NCEP’s Future Location
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
UMD Research Park, College Park(Early FY08)
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7*As of 10/1/04*54 FTE
Total FTE: 429*131 Contractors/24 Visitors
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What Does NCEP Do?
Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Winter Weather Guidance Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasts to 5 days Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Day 8-14 Critical Weather
Outlooks Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions
Severe Weather Watches Marine High Seas Forecasts Hurricane Watches and
Warnings Aviation Warnings
(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to
Seasonal to Interannual) Solar Monitoring –
geomagnetic storm forecasts
Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products
Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and RRegional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
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NCEP’s Future is Built Upon:
Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages; for example Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks & Extratropical Storm patterns Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts Relationship of solar activity on service provision and climate fluctuations Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and operational models
“Seamless Suite” of products through a collaborative approach Extension of predictability of Weather and Climate (from
snowstorms to ENSO); Improve the forecasts of Extreme Events Community Model Approach – Common Model Infrastructure Addressing forecast uncertainty – Ensemble modeling Test Beds in each Service Center U.S.Weather Research Program THORPEX: International Polar
Year – 07/08 GEOSS
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Student Employment Programs at NOAA
• Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP)– Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program
that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school.
– Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.
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Student Employment Programs at NOAA
• NOAA Faculty and Student Intern Research Program administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE): – Ten week faculty and student intern research program. Primary focus to provide
work experience to faculty, graduate and undergraduate students under represented in mission-related occupations. FTE neutral.
• NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program– Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are
recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school.
• Workforce Recruitment Program – The WRP is a resource for federal agencies nationwide to provide employment
opportunities for qualified students with disabilities. FTE neutral.
• For more information on all programs– http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm
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NCEP Employment Situation
• Employment situation – FY04– Total of 375 Civil Servants; 146 contractors; 18 visitors
– Currently have 5 Student Interns (SCEP/STEP)
– During the last 12 months• 32 CS vacancies; 5 SCEPs;
• Hired 22 contractors & visiting scientists
• 20 Summer/Student Program Hires (ORISE, GoHFAS, NOAA Educational Partnership Programs)
– Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)
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Today’s Model Suite
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•Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•2.4x upgrade operational by mid-January, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-January, 2005
Computing Capability
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment
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NCEP Operational Models
Eta
12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z
Global Forecast System (GFS)
T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels
T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels
T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels
16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day
RUC
20 km, 50 levels
12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z
3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z
Climate Forecast System (CFS)
T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 10 months/ 1/day at 00Z
40-level GFDL Modular Ocean Model (MOM3)
GFDL Hurricane Model
coupled ocean-atmosphere
Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon)
42 levels
126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z
Wave Model
global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon
Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon
Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon
Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon
1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day
North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal)
North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal)
.25 x .25 deg lat/lon
1 level
78 hours/4 times per day
Ensembles
global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z
T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs
28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs)
regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z
32 km, 60 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z
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NCEP Operational Models
High Resolution Window (Non-hydrostatic Nest)
8 km, 60 levels, 48 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z
AK, HI at 00Z, West US, PR at 06Z,
Cent US, HI at 12Z, East US, PR at 18Z
Fire Wx/IMET Support (Non-hydrostatic Nest)
8 km, 60 levels, 48 hours, up to 4/day
Selectable area from 26, 900 km2 domains
HYSPLIT Dispersion Model
run on demand
using 4 km Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)
Air Quality Forecast System
12 km, 22 levels, 48 hours, 2/day at 6, 12Z
Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX)
12 km, 60 levels (downscaled locally to 5km)
CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z
84-192 h
4 km terrain
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GFS
CFS
GFDLHurricane
WRF NMM
Eta
NOAH Land Surface Model
Dispersion
Air Quality
Model Dependencies
Forecast
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Model Access
Through the Web
While the model is running
Fastest access possible
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0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
JUL DEC MA OCT MA AUG JAN JUN
Nu
mb
er
of
Mo
nth
ly H
its
Access introduced
July 17, 2001
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
# of graphics produced per day 23180183333623 24774 28898 35130 38670
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Recent Advancements
•Climate Forecast System•WRF•Wave Watch III•Air Quality
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Recent Advancements: Climate Forecast System
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The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004)
1. Atmospheric component• Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)
• T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical
• Recent upgrades in model physics Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)
cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)
gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)
cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)
2. Oceanic component• GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)
• 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers
• Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)
• Free surface3. Coupled model
• Once-a-day coupling
• Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology
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Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles
Simulated 2002-2040 (top)
Observed 1965-2003(bottom)
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Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability
Observed
64 Level Atm
28 Level Atm
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Most Recent CFS
Latest CPC Forecast:El Niño conditions have developed in the tropicalPacific and are expected to last through early 2005.
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30Seasonal Temperature Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05Seasonal Temperature Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05
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31Seasonal Precipitation Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05Seasonal Precipitation Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05
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Recent Advancements: WRF
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WRFNOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL
• The next-generation mesoscale NWP modeling system for research and operations• Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR• Testing underway of all combinations of 2 dynamic cores and 2 physics packages at
DoD Major Shared Resource Center (one month from each season)• First operational implementation at NCEP September 21, 2004, implementation at
AF by Spring, ’05
CMI
NCAR
NCEPNMM
Explicit Cores(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)
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NCEP Mesoscale Forecast Systems to be replaced by WRF configurations
NCEP Production SuiteWeather Forecast Systems
Version 2.0 October 19, 2003
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
6 Hour Cycle
Pe
rce
nt
Us
ed
HawaiiFIREWXCOFSRUCEDASWavesGFSensHUR/NWMGFSfcstGFSanalETAfcstETAanalSREFAir Quality
NA (Eta) Analysis
NA (Eta Forecast)
RUC HiResWindow
SREF
EDAS
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Implementation Schedule
• HiResWindow: WRF Ensemble Operational Sept. 21, 2004 (2 members) (6 members, FY06)
• North American Mesoscale WRF: Operational in FY05
• FireWeather/IMET Support and Homeland Security: WRF-NMM Operational in FY06
• Hurricane WRF: FY06 - 07• Rapid Refresh WRF: Operational in FY07• WRF SREF: Operational in FY07
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The Flow of Science from Research to Operations in the WRF Era: A Plan to Bridge the “Valley of Death”
DTC
EMC
NCO
NavyNCEP
NRL
FNMOC
The research community:
Air Force
OTC-NCEP
OTC-Air Force
OTC-Navy
NCAR
AFWA
Developmental Test bed Center, Boulder
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24 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Valid 12Z 6 September, 2004, 42 Hour Forecast
OPS. NMM WRF NMM
OPS. Eta WRF EM
CPC RFC 1/8 deg Verification
Tropical Storm
Frances:
Subjective Comparison
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24 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Valid 12Z 30 August, 2004, 42 Hour Forecast
OPS. NMM
WRF EM
WRF NMM
OPS. Eta
CPC RFC 1/8 deg Verification
Tropical Storm
Gaston:
Subjective Comparison
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Recent Advancements: Wave Watch III
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• New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable).
• More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models.
WAVEWATCH III
new model required
• All models use GFS and ice edge information from NCEP's operational ice analysis. A special GFDL driven version of the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific wave model are run for hurricane wave prediction (72h forecast).
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Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTCnowcast
48h forecast24h forecast
12h forecast
Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall.
wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)
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Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC
pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam
9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT
Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft.
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Recent Advancements: Air Quality Forecast System
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Air Quality Prediction at NCEP
• Initial (FY2003 – FY2008):
–1-day forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ) linked to linked to 12 km Eta12 km Eta
–Validated in testing over Northeastern US domain during 03 and 04,
–Declared operational September 13, 2004
–Deploy Nationwide within 5 years
•Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010):–Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration
•Longer range (by FY2013):–Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours
–Include broader range of significant pollutants
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45-92 -90 -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 -76 -74 -72 -70 -68
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
-20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40
Objective Verification
BIAS in max 1-hr ozone
concentration
Observed
Forecast
7/22/04 8 hour Peak Ozone
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JCSDA
Count
(Mill
ions)
Daily Upper Air Observation Count
2002
2003
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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001
Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from
the advanced satellite sensors Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure Develop common fast radiative transfer system Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather
and climate predictions Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new
satellite technology from two years to one
Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models
Goals:
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JCSDA Partners
NASA/Goddard
Global Modeling & Assimilation Office
NOAA/NESDIS
Office of Research &
Applications
NOAA/OAR
Office of Weather and Air Quality
NOAA/NCEP
Environmental
Modeling Center
US Navy
Oceanographer of the Navy,Office of Naval Research (NRL)
US Air Force
AF Director of WeatherAF Weather Agency
PARTNERS
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JCSDA FY03-05 Major Projects
• JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products)
• Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E)
• NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system
• JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model
• Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes
• Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS, GPS Occultation on NWP through EMC parallel experiments
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JCSDA Accomplishments Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models
Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002)
Enabled use of microwave radiances over land Adoption of NCEP Data Assimilation by GFSC
New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates; AMSU cloud liquid
water GOES -10-12 IR radiances QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds)
AIRS Assessment Full resolution tests indicate positive impact, focused on 254 channels out of
2378 Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05 MODIS winds implementation scheduled for !st Quarter FY05
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Ongoing Activities (cont)JCSDA Announcement of Opportunity
1. Improve radiative transfer model1. UCLA – Advanced Radiative Transfer
2. UMBC – Including Aerosols in OPTRAN
3. NOAA/ETL – Fast microwave radiance assimilation studies
2. Prepare for advanced instruments1. U. Wisconsin – Polar winds assimilation
2. NASA/GSFC – AIRS and GPS assimilation
3. Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information1. U. Wisconsin – Passive microwave assimilation of cloud and precipitation
4. Improve emissivity models and surface products1. Boston U. - Time varying Land & Vegetation
2. U. Arizona – Satellite obs for Snow Data Assimilation
3. Colo. State U. – Surface emissivity error analysis
4. NESDIS/ORA – Retrievals of real-time vegetation properties
5. Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation1. U. Md – Ocean data assimilation bias correction
2. Columbia U. – Use of altimeter data
3. NRL (Monterey) – Aerosol contamination in SST Retrievals
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Future Plans for Models
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• ESMF definition– Global common model infrastructure– NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP– Basis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast
system– Generalized model to include hybrid coordinate
• Common model and data assimilation superstructure• Potential unified global and regional system
• ESMF Status– Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-
NASA fvCAM using ESMF– Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by
end of 2004
Earth System Modeling Framework
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North American Ensemble Forecast System
• Effort to leverage international resources to increase number of ensemble members
• Canada and U.S. to share global ensemble runs• IOC in September ’04 to consist of 40 NCEP runs
(10 runs x 4/day) and 16 Canadian runs (eventually will expand to 32) for a total of 56
• First step in a 3 year effort• Will include output from
the UK Met Office within 18-24 months
Focus on THORPEX-related Items
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Summary
• NCEP is positioned to deal with important strategic issues– Climate-weather-water linkage– Expand into “environmental” prediction– Extend predictive capabilities into week 2– Extend consistent predictive capabilities for
extreme events out to Day 7
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Summary (cont)• Based on Partnership with larger research community
– Community model approach (global and regional)– Active participation in field programs
• North American Monsoon Experiment• THORPEX
– Test Beds:• Developmental Test bed Center (EMC)• Climate Test Bed (EMC, CPC)• USWRP/Joint Hurricane Test Bed (TPC)• Hazardous Weather Forecast Test Bed (SPC) • Aviation Test Bed (AWC)• USWRP/Hydrometeorological Test Bed (HPC) (in progress)
– Data Assimilation efforts through JCSDA
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End of Slides
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Recent Advancements: Hurricanes
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NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors
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TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors
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Hurricane MichelleOctober 29 - November 5, 2001
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Hurricane Claudette5-Day Hurricane Forecast
Radar 10:45 AMJuly 15, 2003
Error (nm) 12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 72 h 96 h 120 h
OFCL 35 57 84 112 128 135 147
GFDL 32 56 88 121 163 233 273
GFS 38 66 93 121 193 218 301
# of cases 25 24 22 19 14 8 8
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Hurricane Isabel
Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast
3-day forecast
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65Preliminary 48 hour track error – 88 nm (13 forecasts)
Preliminary 48 hour track error – 62 nm (42 fcst)Preliminary 120 hour track error – 116 nm
Frances
Charley
2004 Hurricane
Season
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Preliminary 48 hour track error – 97 nm (47 fcst)
Ivan
2004 Hurricane
Season
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Period (hours)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Err
or
(nau
tica
l mile
s)
1964-1973
1984-1993
1974-1983
1994-2002
Isabel
2003
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Fire Weather IMET Support
8 km NMM captures CA coastal windsGreen – model windsRed – observed winds
12 km Eta 8 km NMM