national centers for environmental prediction
DESCRIPTION
National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Fall COPC Meeting Suitland, MD November 14-15, 2007. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. Overview. NCEP Overview Performance Metrics Computer Status 2006 Implementations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, NCEP
Fall COPC Meeting
Suitland, MD
November 14-15, 2007
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Overview
• NCEP Overview
• Performance Metrics
• Computer Status
• 2006 Implementations
• Upcoming Implementations
• Plans for New Building
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Deliver analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.
EMC - Environmental Modeling Center
HPC – Hydromet. Prediction Center
NCO - NCEP Central Operations
CPC - Climate Prediction Center
OPC - Ocean Prediction Center
SPC – Storm Prediction Center
SEC – Space Environment Center
TPC – Tropical Prediction Center
AWC – Aviation Weather Center
NCEP Review
CPCEMCHPCNCOOPCSEC
SPC
AWC
TPC
Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.
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NCEP: “From the Sun to the Sea”
- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Inter-annual
• El Nino – La Nina Forecast
• Weather Forecasts to Day 7
• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather
• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings
• Offshore and High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
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Space Weather Name Change
As of October 1, 2007, the former Space Environment Center has a new name:
Space Weather Prediction Center
Need to solidify relative roles with regard to NOAA and DoD, especially for operational civilian prediction functions/backup and access to numerical model based prediction.
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Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights
Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation
Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers
NOAA Space WeatherPrediction Center
Space Weather Prediction CenterEvolving Customer Base
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Model Performance
Anomaly Correlation - Day-5 - 500 millibar
Southern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
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Product Generation Summary
Comms Upgrade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL
Nu
mb
er
of
Hit
s (
Mil
lio
ns
)
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
01 02 03 04 05 06 07
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Computing Capability
•Receives Over 1.7 Billion Global Observations Daily•Computational Speed: 13.99 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Backup in Fairmont, WV; guaranteed 15 min. switch over•Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007•Next procurement cycle to begin 2008-2009
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
Primary Weather Primary Weather $13.9 M$13.9 M
Primary Climate Primary Climate $5.3 M$5.3 M
Backup Backup $7.2 M$7.2 M
Total: Total: $26.4 M$26.4 M
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Central Computing System
• Scheduled for Fall 2009
• Will shift primary computer operations from Gaithersburg, MD to Offutt AFB (AFWA)
• Will also upgrade communication circuits
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2007 Implementations
Change (Additions) Planned Actual/Change
Global Forecast System (GFS)Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis
3rd Qtr FY07
4th Qtr FY07
1 May 07
1 May 07
North Amer. Mesoscale (NAM)WRF Physics Upgrade
DGEX Physics upgrade
WRF model upgrade
Hi-Res Window
3rd Qtr FY07
3rd Qtr FY07
4th Qtr FY07
3rd Qtr FY07
2nd Qtr FY08
Real-Time Mesoscale Anlys. (RTMA)
RTMA upgrade
Extension to OCONUS
3rd Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08
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2007 Implementations
Change (Additions) Planned Actual/Change
Short Range Ensemble ForecastBias Correction for Precipitation 4th Qtr FY07 1st Qtr FY08
NAEFSIncrease U.S. Membership from 15 20 Increase in vertical levels
New Products
2nd Qtr FY07
4th Qtr FY07
4th Qtr FY07
27 March 07
2nd Qtr FY08
Fire WeatherReinstate into operations 2nd Qtr FY07
Undergoing OSIP review 2nd Qtr FY08
Hurricane Modeling Hurricane WRF in parallel operations
Probabilistic Storm Surge
3rd Qtr FY07
3rd Qtr FY07
19 June 07
12 June 07
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2007 Implementations
Change (Additions) Planned Actual/Change
Air Quality ForecastExpanded domain to CONUS 3rd Qtr FY07 4th Qtr FY07
Ocean ModelingMulti-grid Wave Model
RTOFS/HYCOM assimil. upgrade
GODAS
4th Qtr FY07
3rd Qtr FY07
1st Qtr FY08
1st Qtr FY08
5 June 2007
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)Assimilation of additional data sources
Upgrade radiation, convection, and land-sea parameterization
1st Qtr FY08 1st Qtr FY08
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2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade Planned
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) 12/4/07
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
12/4/07
Climate Forecast System (CFS) 12/18/07
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Alaska
1/8/08
Regional Ensemble for Olympics 2/11/08
North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle 2/21/08
Great Lakes Wave Model 3/3/08
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2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade Planned
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 3/25/08
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) for Hawaii, Puerto Rico
3/25/08
Global Forecast System (GFS) Bundle 5/5/08
Hurricane WRF Upgrade 5/30/08
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade
6/17/08
Wave Ensemble 6/23/08
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2008 Planned Implementations
Model Upgrade Planned
Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
for Guam7/7/08
North American Mesoscale (NAM) Bundle 8/11/08
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) 8/18/08
Air Quality 9/26/08
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Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Satellites99.9%
Regional NAMWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation
ClimateCFS
1.7B Obs/Day
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
MOM3
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ*
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NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day
Pe
rce
nt
Us
ed
RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal
GD
AS
GF
S an
alysis
NA
M an
alys
CFS
RTOFS
SR
EF NAM
AQ
GFSHUR
RD
AS
Data processing
Current (2007)
GENS/NAEFS
Current - 2007
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems
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Forces for Change
• Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches– Multi-model ensembles
• SREF• NAEFS• Climate Forecast System
• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface
radiance data• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
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CFSMFS
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
6 Hour Cycle: Four Times/Day
Pe
rce
nt
Us
ed
RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal
WAV
CFS & MFS
GENS/NAEFSGFS
Next Generation PrototypePhase 4 - 2015
Regional
Rap Refresh
Global
HURSREF
Reforecast
Hydro / NIDIS/FF
Hydro
NAM
GDAS
RDAS
RTOFS RTOFSAQAQ
Computing factor: 81
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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF at the University of Maryland’s Research Park (M-Square)
• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• Groundbreaking: 13 March 2006• 40 spaces for visiting
scientists
Date
Construction Start May 9, 2007
Move Start Dec 2008
Move Complete July 2009
Construction Schedule
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Construction photographs – November, 2007
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
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NORTH
NOAA Centerfor
Weather and ClimatePrediction
NCWCP
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NCWCP
U Md
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
1 Mile
Silver Spring
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Summary
• NCEP sustaining an aggressive schedule for updating all forecast components from models to service centers
• Need to continue to maximize cooperation between OPCs
– ConOps– NUOPC - models– Backup!
• Many science-service opportunities/challenges exist– Must ensure that backup / COOP relationships are solidified
• Highest Priority Items:– Moving NCEP to new building and moving primary CCS to AFWA
• will pose many challenges over the next 1-2 years.