Real-world emissions in the EU: An overview of recent evidence and policy implications

Peter Mock, Anup Bandivadekar

APEC VFEL Workshop

Singapore

March 24, 2015

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Everyone drives differently – but clear patterns when aggregating data

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Real-world fuel consumption of new cars in EU is about 30+% higher than claimed by manufacturers

http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update

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The growing gap appears to be largely attributable models being strongly optimized to the test cycle

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap

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A growing gap means that only part of the expected fuel consumption/CO2 reduction may be real

http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update

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There are many ways to optimize vehicles for the laboratory testing

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Introduction of the new test procedure will bring some improvement

130 km/h vs. 120 km/h

more dynamic driving

longer test cycle

NEDC (1970s / 1990s) WLTP (2014)

+ improved test procedure

http://www.theicct.org/wltp-november2013-update

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In the EU (and in much of the rest of the words) there is little in-use verification

Pre-production testingCertificate of Conformity

Manufacturer

Conformity testsabout 10% of vehicles

EPA

vehicle design and build 0 km 100,000 km50,000 km

Selective Enforcement Audit +Confirmatory Road Load Testing

EPA

In-use verificationtests on random sample

Manufacturer

In-use surveillancerandom / selected sample

EPA

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Pre-production testingCertificate of Conformity

Manufacturer1

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/bought-tiger-got-hello-kitty-how-fix-vehicle-fuel-economy-fraud-china

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Additional slides on in-use NOx emissions issue

Real NOx emissions of Euro 6 diesel cars 7 times higher than allowed limit – huge differences between vehicles

http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

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Chen, Y., Borken-Kleefeld, J. (2014). Amospheric Environment 88 (2014) 157-164

ICCT’s PEMS test results are confirmed by remote sensing results from other researchers

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http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars

As a result, real-world NOx emissions of Euro 6 diesel cars are not much better than those of Euro 3-5 cars

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Even with independent re-testing there is a need to test vehicles on the road instead of the laboratory

On-road testing using PEMS

Laboratory testing

Source for photos: AVL / ERMESPhotos not related to vehicles tested for the study

http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us

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Policy Developments addressing the ‘gap’

• On the EU light-duty diesel NOx problem:

• European Commission developed the Real Driving Emissions procedure:

• From 2015 on new vehicles to be tested laboratory + road using PEMS

• From 2017 laboratory NOx + real-world conformity factor

• Heated debate on conformity factor expected for 2015-2016

• On the EU light-duty CO2 problem:

• New test procedure (WLTP) ready to be implemented in EU in 2017

• Even with WLTP, still no re-testing or on-road testing for CO2 in EU

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testing

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Are vehicle CO2 emissions reducing in practice?

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Are vehicle CO2 emissions reducing in practice?

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Why this is not only a problem for the EU

• Euro standards are used widely around the world: point out shortcomings of the Euro 6 regulation and implement Euro 6 RDE as soon as possible

• Test results indicate that there is a similar problem for real-world diesel NOx emissions in the U.S.

• Preliminary (very early) data for the Japan indicate that there may be a similar problem for real-world CO2 figures

• The WLTP will be adopted in many parts of the world – getting it right in EU is important

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testinghttp://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us