Real-world emissions in the EU: An overview of recent evidence and policy implications
Peter Mock, Anup Bandivadekar
APEC VFEL Workshop
Singapore
March 24, 2015
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Everyone drives differently – but clear patterns when aggregating data
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Real-world fuel consumption of new cars in EU is about 30+% higher than claimed by manufacturers
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update
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The growing gap appears to be largely attributable models being strongly optimized to the test cycle
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap
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A growing gap means that only part of the expected fuel consumption/CO2 reduction may be real
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update
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There are many ways to optimize vehicles for the laboratory testing
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Introduction of the new test procedure will bring some improvement
130 km/h vs. 120 km/h
more dynamic driving
longer test cycle
NEDC (1970s / 1990s) WLTP (2014)
+ improved test procedure
http://www.theicct.org/wltp-november2013-update
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In the EU (and in much of the rest of the words) there is little in-use verification
Pre-production testingCertificate of Conformity
Manufacturer
Conformity testsabout 10% of vehicles
EPA
vehicle design and build 0 km 100,000 km50,000 km
Selective Enforcement Audit +Confirmatory Road Load Testing
EPA
In-use verificationtests on random sample
Manufacturer
In-use surveillancerandom / selected sample
EPA
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Pre-production testingCertificate of Conformity
Manufacturer1
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/bought-tiger-got-hello-kitty-how-fix-vehicle-fuel-economy-fraud-china
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Additional slides on in-use NOx emissions issue
Real NOx emissions of Euro 6 diesel cars 7 times higher than allowed limit – huge differences between vehicles
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars
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Chen, Y., Borken-Kleefeld, J. (2014). Amospheric Environment 88 (2014) 157-164
ICCT’s PEMS test results are confirmed by remote sensing results from other researchers
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http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars
As a result, real-world NOx emissions of Euro 6 diesel cars are not much better than those of Euro 3-5 cars
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Even with independent re-testing there is a need to test vehicles on the road instead of the laboratory
On-road testing using PEMS
Laboratory testing
Source for photos: AVL / ERMESPhotos not related to vehicles tested for the study
http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us
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Policy Developments addressing the ‘gap’
• On the EU light-duty diesel NOx problem:
• European Commission developed the Real Driving Emissions procedure:
• From 2015 on new vehicles to be tested laboratory + road using PEMS
• From 2017 laboratory NOx + real-world conformity factor
• Heated debate on conformity factor expected for 2015-2016
• On the EU light-duty CO2 problem:
• New test procedure (WLTP) ready to be implemented in EU in 2017
• Even with WLTP, still no re-testing or on-road testing for CO2 in EU
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testing
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Are vehicle CO2 emissions reducing in practice?
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Are vehicle CO2 emissions reducing in practice?
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Why this is not only a problem for the EU
• Euro standards are used widely around the world: point out shortcomings of the Euro 6 regulation and implement Euro 6 RDE as soon as possible
• Test results indicate that there is a similar problem for real-world diesel NOx emissions in the U.S.
• Preliminary (very early) data for the Japan indicate that there may be a similar problem for real-world CO2 figures
• The WLTP will be adopted in many parts of the world – getting it right in EU is important
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testinghttp://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us