real time nowcasting in the western us or why you can’t use nodes c0-2
DESCRIPTION
Real Time Nowcasting In The Western Us OR Why you can’t use nodes C0-2. George Thomas Andy Wood Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGY RESEARCH GROUP Group Seminar July 5, 2006. Outline. Objective background surface water monitor - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Real Time Nowcasting In The Western UsOR
Why you can’t use nodes C0-2
George ThomasAndy Wood
Dennis Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGY RESEARCH GROUPGroup Seminar
July 5, 2006
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Outline
Objective
background surface water monitor westwide forecast system challenges
index station method for real-time forcing generation
implementation details
progress / results to date
future plans
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Objective
Monitor the hydrologic state of the US land surface Initially, western US; soon, mexico + remainder of US 1/8 degree Daily updates in real-time (lag of 12-36 hrs) Soil moisture, snow, runoff Fully automated Consistent with retrospective: back to at least 1950
Can be used for hazard assessment Drought Flood risk
Can be used to initialize hydrologic forecasts Short lead, 1-15 day Long lead, 1-12 month
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Background
This nowcast draws upon procedures and data from two existing systems assembled by Dr. Wood
UW Experimental Surface Water Monitor (1/2 degree) Methods for real-time forcing generation & model
updating
UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting System VIC model data at 1/8 degree Eventually, forecast methods
The nowcast will eventually be an integral part of the West-wide forecasting system
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SW Monitor Background
An outgrowth of the west-wide forecasting system that adds a national scale perspective on land surface moisture
directly relevant to retrospective drought reconstruction work going on in our group Andreadis et al. (2005) paper on drought ½ degree VIC input parameters
enabled by recent NCDC extension of digital data archives back to 1915
will be used as platform for drought and hydrologic analyses in real-time
nowcasts are used now by US Drought Monitor & US Drought Outlook authors (at CPC and elsewhere)
many products possible, such as following one:
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Drought Severity and Spatial Extent
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Monitor Webpage
dailyupdates
1-2 day lag
soil moisture& SWEpercentiles
½ degreeresolution
archive from1915-current
uses ~2130index stns
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Background: UW SW Monitor
trends:1 week2 week1 month
Archive!
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Background: UW SW Monitor
Archive from 1915-current
current conditions are a productof the same simulation (samemethods, ~same stations) ashistorical conditions
allows comparison of current conditions with historical ones
can navigate by month or year
People: Andy, Ali, Kaiyuan, Dennis
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Background: UW SW Monitor
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Background: West-wide Forecasting System
Soil MoistureInitial
Condition
SnowpackInitial Condition
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Background: West-wide Forecasting System
NEW: West-wide overview of flow forecasts
(mouse-over/clickablefor more details)
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As previously, flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to data.
Background: West-wide Forecasting System
Now clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions
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An earlier G. Thomas contribution:
Automating plots of west-wide SWE data
Background
West-wide Forecasting System
Daily UpdatingWest-at-a-glanceSWE fromNRCS, EC, CADWR
Analyses: Current Anomalies Percentiles:
Current1-week change2-week change
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Background: Central Challenge
Model simulations are calibrated and validated using a uniform or consistent set of forcing data
Nowcasts and forecasts use models calibrated and validated retrospectively
Problem: the station data used to create forcings are not as widely available in real-time as they are for the retrospective calibration/validation period
Solution: the “index-station method”
# st
atio
ns
time 3 monthsbefore present
present
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VIC model spinup methods: index stationsestimating spin-up period inputs
dense station network for model calibration sparse station network in real-time
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Outline
Objective
background surface water monitor westwide forecast system challenges
index station method for real-time forcing generation
implementation details
progress / results to date
future plans
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Index station method: example for precipitation
uses time-varying precipitation signal ONLY FROM stations that report reliably in real-time and for over 45 years (many go back longer)
precipitation percentiles calculated from raw precip for time period no shorter than 21 days.
percentiles interpolated to 1/8 degree grid at 1/8 degree, percentiles used to extract corresponding
observed value from 1/8 degree restrospective distribution (based on dense observing network, standard VIC forcing methods)
period 1/8 degree precip amount disaggregated using the fractional daily precipitation for that period (interpolated to 1/8 degree grid).
temperature is treated differently – daily interpolated anomalies for Tmin & Tmax are used
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Index station method: example for precipitation
Index stn pcp (mm) pcp
percentile
gridded to 1/8 degree
1/8 degree dense station monthly pcp DISTRIBUTION(N years for each 1/8 degree grid cell)(MM)
1/8 degree pcp (mm) disagg. to
dailyusing interpolated daily fractions from index stations
monthly daily
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Index station method: example for precipitation
In real-time, with daily updates, this method actively updates the forcings for a period from 3 weeks to 7 weeks.
case 1: current day is less than day 21 of month
treated as 1 period for percentile calculation
months
case 2: current day is greater than day 20 of month
treated as 2 periods for percentile calculation
the first month becomes fixed in forcing data
months
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Index stationmethod
test of method for streamflow
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Outline
Objective
background surface water monitor westwide forecast system challenges
index station method for real-time forcing generation
implementation details
progress / results to date
future plans
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Nowcast Information Flow
VIC Retrospective SimulationDaily, 1915 to Near Current
VIC Real-timeSimulation
(~1 month long)
HydrologicState
NOAA ACIS / OtherPrcp Tmax Tmin
Coop Stations
Index Station Method Gridded Forcing Creation
Hydrologic values, anom’s, %-iles w.r.t.retrospective PDF
climatology (PDF)of
hydrologic valuesw.r.t. defined period
vals, anoms%-iles
w.r.t. PDF
1955+
HydrologicState
(-1 Day)
1930s
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Implementation Details
Computing Environment: Flood Cluster 46 cores9 AMD Opteron 2x dual core2 Intel Xeon 2X single core1 AMD Opteron 2x single core
Rocks 4.0.0 / CentOS 4.0 Linux
Nowcasting is implemented on nodes c0-2 and c0-6
Useful phrases: WTF?! (what the flood?!)
RTFM!! (read the flood manual)
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Implementation Details
SW Monitor coding scheme
downloadobs
P, tx, tn
update
force
VIC
Station
Index filesclimatology
Forcings
2 mon
Params
Soil, etc.
output
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Implementation Details
SW Monitor coding scheme – NCAST implementation
downloadobs
P, tx, tn
update
force
VIC
Station
Index filesclimatology
Forcings
2 mon
Params
Soil, etc.
output
obs
P, tx, tn
update
force
VIC
output
Forcings
2 mon
Params
Soil, etc.
climatology Station
Index files
Node 0-2 Node 0-6
Loop over basinsca, colo, gbas, riog
Loop over basinspnw, mexn, mexs
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Implementation Details
Observation data:Real-time and retrospectivestations.3 Primary sources
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Implementation Details
Observation data:Real-time and retrospectivestations.3 Primary sources
1. ACIS for CONUS2123 stations1915-present
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Implementation Details
Observation data:Real-time and retrospectivestations.3 Primary sources
1. ACIS for CONUS2123 stations1915-present
2. Environment Canada10 stations1915-present
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Implementation Details
Observation data:Real-time and retrospectivestations.3 Primary sources
1. ACIS for CONUS2123 stations1915-present
2. Environment Canada10 stations1915-present
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Implementation Details
Observation data:Real-time and retrospectivestations.3 Primary sources
1. ACIS for CONUS2123 stations1915-present
2. Environment Canada10 stations1915-present
3. Mexico (retrospective)739 stations1925-2003
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Implementation Details
Observation data:Real-time and retrospectivestations.3 Primary sources
1. ACIS for CONUS2123 stations1915-present
2. Environment Canada10 stations1915-present
3. Mexico (retrospective)739 stations1925-2003Real-Time: EDAS (Eta DAS) daily re-analysis
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Outline
Objective
background surface water monitor westwide forecast system challenges
index station method for real-time forcing generation
implementation details
progress / results to date
future plans
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Results
daily forecast of SM percentiles
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Results
daily forecast of SM percentiles – animations of recent forecasts
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Results
daily forecast of SM percentiles - comparison with SW Monitor
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Results
daily forecast of SM percentiles - comparison with CPC Drought Monitor
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Results
daily forecast of SM percentiles - 2 week change - comparison with SW Monitor
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Results
April 1 SWE Archive(1997 – 2006)
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Outline
Objective
background surface water monitor westwide forecast system challenges
index station method for real-time forcing generation
implementation details
progress / results to date
future plans
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Future Work
Ongoing and Future Work data products expansion (Arkansas, etc.) routing constraints using SWE
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END
Thank you!