real-time crash risk visualization tool for traffic safety
TRANSCRIPT
Real-Time Crash Risk Visualization Tool for Traffic Safety Management
UCF Smart & Safe Transportation Lab
“Power Safer Roads for Smarter Cities”
Presenter: Mohamed Abdel-Aty, PhD, PE, F.ASCE, F.ITE
Trustee Chair, Pegasus Professor & Dept. Chair
Real-Time Safety
• Real-time safety analysis
• Implementation• Understanding the microscopic crash mechanisms• Estimating crash likelihood in real-time • Improving traffic safety in real-time
A crash
Disruptive
Proactive Perspective of Traffic Safety
• What patterns are we looking for?
• Developing a Hybrid Detailed Crash Prediction System Using ITS Data on I-4 and Evaluating the Application Strategies
• Speed profile before/after crash on I-4
3
Traf
fic
Par
amet
er
( e
.g.,
Sp
ee
d)
TimeObservation Time Slice
Time of Crash
After CrashBefore Crash
Crash Precursor
Proactive Perspectives of Traffic Safety
• Real-time crash risk for I-4
4
Hazard Ratio: Contour plots of hazard ratios corresponding to coefficient of variation in speed (42 model outputs)
Real-time
Black
Spot
Time
Spa
ce (
Dire
ctio
n of
Tra
ffic)
Station B
Station H
Station G
Station F
Station E
Station D
Station C
DistanceTraffic
Direction
Time of the
crash=0-25 min. -20 min. -15 min. -10 min. -5 min.-30 min.
Slice 1Slice 6 Slice 5 Slice 4 Slice 3 Slice 2
Time and Location
of the crash
Station B
Station H
Station G
Station F
Station E
Station D
Station C
DistanceTraffic
Direction
Time of the
crash=0-25 min. -20 min. -15 min. -10 min. -5 min.-30 min.
Slice 1Slice 6 Slice 5 Slice 4 Slice 3 Slice 2
Time and Location
of the crash
Proactive Perspectives of Traffic Safety
• Real-time crash risk for I-4
5
Hazard Ratio: Contour plots of hazard ratios corresponding to coefficient of variation in speed (42 model outputs)
Station B
Station H
Station G
Station F
Station E
Station D
Station C
DistanceTraffic
Direction
Time of the
crash=0-25 min. -20 min. -15 min. -10 min. -5 min.-30 min.
Slice 1Slice 6 Slice 5 Slice 4 Slice 3 Slice 2
Time and Location
of the crash
Station B
Station H
Station G
Station F
Station E
Station D
Station C
DistanceTraffic
Direction
Time of the
crash=0-25 min. -20 min. -15 min. -10 min. -5 min.-30 min.
Slice 1Slice 6 Slice 5 Slice 4 Slice 3 Slice 2
Time and Location
of the crash
DATA-INFORMEDTOOLS
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Most data sources used in our system are public.
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Summary of Data and Sources
REAL-TIME CRASH RISK VISUALIZATION for Operators
“Real-Time Algorithms – Summarized based on our more
than 200 peer-reviewed papers”
Freeway/Expressway
Arterial
Bayesian Binary Logit
Bayesian Conditional
Logit
Bayesian Random
Effect Logit
Bayesian Random
Parameter Logit
Statistical
Support Vector Machine
Artificial Neural Network
Recurrent Neural Network
Long-Short Term Memory
Machine
Learning
Hybrid
System
Severe Crash Risk
Total Crash Risk
Crash Severity
Algorithms
REAL-TIME CRASH RISK VISUALIZATION for Operators
Impact of VSL and RM
5545
High risk
Concluding Remarks
• Public and Private data
• Real-time, historical (static) and other data
• Infrastructure and Vehicle based data
• State-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice
• Seamless usability
• Challenges:• Base Map
• Coordination with numerous agencies
• Data uniformity
• Adoption
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Thank YouUCF Smart & Safe Transportation Lab