real estate consulting industry senior analysts: ying hang eng junior analysts: jessica, hannah,...
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Real Estate Consulting IndustrySenior Analysts: Ying Hang EngJunior Analysts: Jessica, Hannah, Linh, Brandon, Kyle
Industry DefinitionCompanies in this industry provide real estate-related services to businesses and individuals involved in real estate investment, transactions and development. Services include consulting and advisory, real estate asset management, escrow, relocation, tenant representation, listing, and fiduciary activities.
CBRE Group, Inc.(NYSE: CBG)Market Share: 5.9%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated(NYSE: JLL)Market Share: 2.6%
CoreLogic, Inc.(NYSE: CLGX)Market Share: 2.1%
Realogy Holdings Corp.(NYSE:RLGY)Market Share: 0.7%
BGC Partners, Inc.(NYSE:BGCP)Market Share: 0.4%
Real Estate Consulting Industry Index
Nov-05Jan
-06
Mar-06
May-06
Aug-06
Oct-06
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09Jan
-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
AverageRussell 2000S&P 500
Process Flow: Revenue Generation Process
Source: IREM
Clients:Real Estate Developers, Commercial
Banks, Corporations,
Insurance Companies
Property Management
Asset Acquisition
Research Consulting
Financial Management
Marketing
Risk Management
Maintenance
Budgeting
Insurance
InspectionsProperty
Improvement
AccountingFinancial Analysis
Emergency Planning
Government Regulations
AdvertisingNegotiationDisposition/
Lease
Porter’s Five Forces
NEW ENTRANTS
SUPPLIERS INDUSTRY RIVALRY
CUSTOMERS
SUBSTITUTES
HIGH•Low barriers to entry• Low start-up and operational costs (small non-employer firms)•However, firms offering a wide range of services are able to attract and attain customers
LOW/MEDIUM HIGH
• Bargaining power huge impact on revenue creation of real estate consulting firms
MEDIUM
HIGH• Clients may switch to big firms that provide real estate consulting as well as other services
• Many small localized firms• Hard to drive up prices• Nonetheless, if firms provide
high quality service gain reputation increase bargaining and pricing power
• Level of competition is medium•Firms branching out to provide complementary services gain competitive advantage
Increase in Nonresidential Construction Spending and Activities
A CAGR of 11.46% from Jan 2011 to Aug 2014Architecture Billings IndexArchitecture firm building end high on third quarter
• Positive economic outlook and recover consumer confidence increase spending on construction
• Office rental vacancy rate expected to go down 9.6% in 2015
• Total Spending on construction have a R-square of 0.92 with revenue from real estate consulting industry
Increase spending and activities on nonresidential construction will require service from real estate consulting as
companies try to expand
J-11
A-11J-1
1O-11
J-12
A-12J-1
2O-12
J-13
A-13J-1
3O-13
J-14
A-14J-1
4220000
240000
260000
280000
300000
320000
340000
360000
Total Private Construction Spend-ing: Nonresidential
(Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs)
1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/1430
35
40
45
50
55
60
-5-3-113579111315
Architecture Billings Index
IndexChange
Rising building permits are driving the housing recovery
- Housing starts is growing albeit slowly- CAGR of 15.72% since its lowest
point
Jan-05
Jul-05Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
4400600800
10001200140016001800200022002400
Housing Starts From 2005 - 2014
Thou
sand
s of U
nits- Case-Shiller HPI is gradually gaining
footing back to the pre-crisis level- CAGR of 10.22% since 2008- Correlation between Case-Shiller
and Building Permits is 0.9467
Jun-2006
Nov-2006
Apr-2007
Sep-2007
Feb-2008
Jul-2008
Dec-2008
May-2009
Oct-2009
Mar-2010
Aug-2010
Jan-2011
Jun-2011
Nov-2011
Apr-2012
Sep-2012
Feb-2013
Jul-2013
Dec-2013
May-2014
120
140
160
180
200
220
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
Inde
x Le
vel
- Building permits have rebounded strongly
- Our regression shows a 10% increase in building permits increases industry revenue by 1%
As home values increase, we can expect building permits to increase and therefore continue to drive revenue growth for the RE Consulting industry.
Possibility of increasing mortgage interest rate Industry is highly sensitive to change in interest rate and mortgage rateConsulting service depends heavily on demand for residential housing construction and reconstruction
Decreased demand for real estate due to transition to virtual worldNew business model without ‘brick and mortar’ need might dominate markets Less demand for commercial real estate over time
Impact from economic downturn Economic downturn will affect primary demand for consulting such as construction and expansion of business
Risks
Industry Rating Real Estate Consulting Industry Rating:
Recovering housing market coupled with increasing future demand and rising economy confidence gives the industry an overweight rating
1. Industry Recap & Outlook Increase spending and activities on nonresidential construction will require
service from real estate consulting as companies try to expand Rising building permits are driving the housing recovery
2. Continued Risk Factors Possibility of increasing mortgage interest rate Decrease demand for real estate due to transition to virtual world Impact from economic downturn
OVERWEIGHT
BACKUP SLIDES
Industry SnapshotReal Estate Listing Services
9% Real Estate Auction Services2%
Real Estate Consulting Services43%
Real Estate Relocation Services26%
Other Services11%
Property Management Services10%
Revenue: $61.6BProfit: $9.1BProfit Margin: 14.77%Industry Growth (09-14): 3.6%Expected Growth (14-19): 4.7%
SWOT Analysis
Sources: IBISWorld, Google Finance, Gartner, Booz Allen, KMPG
Strengths WeaknessesPricing power due to high quality serviceFirms with highly skilled staff with specialized knowledge gain reputation for quality service, hence increase their bargaining and pricing power
Ability to raise revenue from additional sources by providing complementary services to clients
Limited to local market Firms need specialized knowledge, hard to expand into different markets and gain economies of scale
Opportunities ThreatsIncreasing demand due to rising construction volumeIncreasing construction volume as market recovers creates demand for consulting and advisory services
Increasing demand from possible injection of new capitalPossible privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would provide an injection of new capital into the property market and create demand for real estate asset managers and consultants
Additional capital from international investors
Interest rate increase reduces demand Interest rate increase defers real estate purchases, entitlements and development
Competition from substitutesCompetition from substitutes performing many of the same and additional services brokers, agents, REIT can bring industry services in-house reduces demand
Litigation risk
Key Financials
Company Market Cap(B) % of 52 week high Closing Price P/E Ratio (TTM) EPS(TTM) EV/EBITDA Debt/Equity LTM ROE LTM ROA
CBG 11.07 99.17% 33.49 28.38 1.18 13.14 134.46 19.90% 5.64%
JLL 6.44 99.27% 143.69 19.15 7.51 12.8 24.11 15.36% 7.32%
CLGX 2.98 91.90% 33.26 68.02 0.49 16.22 134.75 4.27% 1.33%
RLGY 6.7 89.17% 45.79 15.24 3.01 14.71 196.63 22.40% 6.00%
BGCP 1.89 96.32% 8.63 1438.33 0.01 13.17 58.47 6.02% 1.02%
High 11.07 99.3% 143.69 1438.33 7.51 16.22 196.63 22.4% 7.3%
Low 1.89 89.2% 8.63 15.24 0.01 12.8 24.11 4.3% 1.0%
Median 6.44 96.3% 33.49 28.38 1.18 13.17 134.46 15.4% 5.6%
Mean 5.816 95.2% 52.972 313.824 2.44 14.008 109.684 13.6% 4.3%
Forecast of revenue
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
80,000.00
90,000.00
Back Up
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00Total construction spending vs. Revenue
total construction spending
Revenue
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
700,000.00
800,000.00
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00Total nonresidential construction spending vs. Revenue
Total Spending on nonresidential construction
Revenue
Linear Regression on total construction vs revenue
Regression Statistics R 0.96048R Square 0.92253Adjusted R Square 0.91146S 12,304.31466Total number of observations 9
174218.2 =- 119569.0568 + 0.2786 * 1102212.83333333 ANOVA
d.f. SS MS F p-level Regression 1. 1.26199E+10 1.26199E+10 83.35698 0.00004Residual 7. 1,059,773,113.99454 151,396,159.14208Total 8. 1.36797E+10
Linear Regression on total non-residential construction vs revenue
Regression Statistics R 0.63004R Square 0.39696Adjusted R Square 0.31081S 34,329.2322Total number of observations 9
174218.2 =- 117336.6409 + 0.4419 * 486070.666666667 ANOVA
d.f. SS MS F p-level Regression 1. 5,430,226,491.27477 5,430,226,491.27477 4.60776 0.06896Residual 7. 8,249,473,285.4452 1,178,496,183.63503Total 8. 1.36797E+10