Reacción en Cadena: Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos

Douglas S. MasseyWoodrow Wilson School

Princeton University

Origines de la Guerra Anti-inmigrante

Epocas Importantes1. La Paz Bracera 1954-19642. El Ascenso de la Ameneza Latina 1965-19953. Tiempos de Guerra 1996-20064. Punto Muerto 2007-2011

Rise of Latino Threat NarrativeDistribution of Alarmist Covers by Period

18

37

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970s 1980s 1990s

Decade

Per

cen

tag

e

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 19950

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Correspondence Between Apprehensions and Threatening Metaphors

Apprehensions Metaphors

Year

Ratio

of V

alue

Rel

ative

to 1

986

β SEDemographic Background

Age 0.0113 ** 0.0035Age-squared 0.0000 0.0000Female -0.1818 *** 0.0215White 0.3532 *** 0.0287U.S. Born 0.0139 0.0289Currently married 0.2479 *** 0.0214No. of minors in household 0.0552 *** 0.0094

General Human CapitalEducation 0.0329 *** 0.0037

Specific Human CapitalIncome 0.0021 *** 0.0003Skilled occupationProfessional occupation -0.0422 0.0273Service occupation 0.0269 0.0250Farm occupation 0.0365 0.0676

U.S. RegionWestNortheast -0.2168 *** 0.0323Midwest -0.0218 0.0295South 0.1734 *** 0.0279

Size of CityRuralLarge urban city -0.2395 *** 0.0412Medium urban city -0.1140 *** 0.0309Small urban city -0.0078 0.0240

U.S. Economic ContextExpected earnings -0.0027 *** 0.0004

U.S. Policy ContextMexican Apprehensions 0.1680 *** 0.0315

Total number of observations*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001

51,981

Predicting Conservatism

--

--

--

β SEDemographic Background

Age 0.0351 ** 0.0138Age-squared -0.0002 * 0.0001Female -0.1113 0.0918White 0.5176 ** 0.1597Currently married 0.2474 ** 0.1094No. of minors in household -0.0150 0.0403

General Human CapitalEducation -0.0793 *** 0.0183

Specific Human CapitalIncome (x1000) -0.0016 0.0013Skilled occupationProfessional occupation -0.1017 0.0885Service occupation 0.0235 0.0852Farm occupation -0.0526 0.3130

U.S. RegionWestNortheast 0.1012 0.1512Midwest 0.1187 0.0982South 0.2608 ** 0.1062

Size of CityRuralLarge urban city -0.3992 ** 0.1667Medium urban city -0.1258 0.0784Small urban city -0.1302 0.1056

U.S. Policy ContextIdentified Self as not conservativeIdentified S+elf as slightly conservative 0.3959 *** 0.1018Identified Self as extremely conservative0.5572 ** 0.1520

Anti-immigrant sentimentSupport fo exclusionist policies index

Total number of observations*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.001

5,194

--

--

---

Support Exclusionist Policy Both: 1996 & 2004

--

RESTRICTIVE LEGISLATION

1965 Hart-Cellar ActImposed first-ever annual cap of 120,000 visas for immigrants from western hemisphere

1976 Amendments to Immigration and Nationality Act Put western hemisphere under preference system and country quotas

1978 Amendments to Immigration and Nationality ActCombined separate hemispheric caps into single worldwide ceiling of 290,000

1980 Refugee Act Abolished refugee preference and reduced worldwide ceiling to 270,000

1986 Immigration Reform and Control ActCriminalized undocumented hiring and authorized expansion of Border Patrol

1990 Amendments to the Immigration and Nationality ActSought to cap visas going to spouse and children of resident aliens

1996 Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act Authorized expedited removal of aliens and deportation of aggravated felons

1996 Illegal Immigrant Reform and Immigrant Responsibility ActIncreased resources for border enforcement, narrowed criteria for asylum, and increased income threshold required to sponsor immigrants

1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity ActDeclared documented and undocumented migrants ineligible for certain entitlements

1997 Nicaraguan and Central American Relief ActAllowed registered asylum seekers from Central America (mostly Nicaraguans) in the USfor at least 5 years since December 1, 1995 to obtain legal status; but prohibitedlegalization and order deportation for those who lacked a valid visa or who previouslyviolated US immigration laws (mostly Hondurans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans)

2001 USA Patriot ActCreated Department of Homeland Security, increased funding for surveillance anddeportation of foreigners; authorized deportation of aliens without due process

2004 National Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Protection Act Funded new equipment, aircraft, border patrol agents, immigration investigators, anddetention centers for border enforcement

2005 Real ID ActDramatically increased the data requirements, documentation, and verification proceduresfor state issuance of drivers licences

2006 Secure Fence ActAuthorized construction of additional fencing, vehicle barriers, checkpoints, lighting andfunding for new cameras, satellites, and unmanned drones for border enforcement

2010 Border Security ActFunded hiring 3,000 more Border Patrol agents and increased BP budget by $244 million

Tiempos de Guerra

1992 Primero Ataque en NY 1995 Bombardeo en Oklahoma

1996 Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act 1998 Bombardeo de USS Cole en Yemen 2000 Bombardeo de las Embajadas en Africa 2001 9-11 Ataques en NY y Washington

2001 USA PATRIOT Act

RESTRICTIVE OPERATIONS

1993 Operation Blockade (El Paso)1994 Operation Gatekeeper (San Diego)1998 Operation Rio Grande (Brownsville)1999 Operation Safeguard (Tucson)2003 Operation Endgame (Internal)2004 Operation Frontline (Internal)2004 Arizona Border Control Initiative (Arizona)2004 Operation Stonegarden (Entire Border)2005 Secure Borders Initiative (Entire Border)2005 Operation Streamline (Entire Border)2006 Operation Return to Sender (Internal)2006 Operation Jump Start (Entire Border)2007 Secure Communities Program (Internal)2007 Operation Rapid REPAT (Internal)2008 Operation Scheduled Departure (Internal)2010 Operation Copper Cactus (Arizona)

Punto Muerto

• Tasa de Salida Indocumentada a EEUU: 0• Tasa de Retorno a México: 0• Población Permanente de Indocumentados

• 11 milliones en total• 6.5 millones de Mexicanos

• Más represión del estado norteamericano• Mas exclusión del pueblo estadonidense

Average Daily Number of Immigrants in Detention

6259

20,032

31,345

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1992 2000 2008

Year

Nu

mb

er

Immigration-Related Legislation in State Legislatures

1404

570

300

13051405

170

8436

206259

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year

Nu

mb

er

Bills Considered

Bills Enacted

Anti-Hispanic Hate Crimes Since 9/11

480 475

522

576

595

426

400

450

500

550

600

650

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Nu

mb

er

Consequences of the War: Public Opinion2006 Pew Survey of American Adults

48

54

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Immigrants Threaten AmericanValues

Americans Need to Be ProtectedAgainst Foreign Influence

Approve of Minutemen

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.0000

0.0200

0.0400

0.0600

0.0800

0.1000

0.1200

Probability of Undocumented Migration to United States

First Trip Later Trip

Year

Prob

abili

ty o

f Dep

artu

re

OperationWetback

Bracero Program Cancelled& Numerical Quotas Imposed

IRCA

OperationBlockade

EconomicCrisis in US

PATRIOTAct

Model to Predict Probability of Undocumented Migration

Demographic BackgroundAgeAge-squaredMarriedNo. of minors in household

General Human CapitalLabor force experienceEducation

Specific Human CapitalMonths of prior U.S. experienceNumber of prios U.S. tripsUnskilled urban jobSkilled urban job

General Social CapitalParent a U.S. MigrantNo of U.S. migrant siblingsProp U.S. Migrants in Community

Specific Social CapitalSpouse a U.S. migrantNo. of U.S. migrant childrenNo. of U.S. born children

Physical CapitalLandHomeBusiness

U.S. Social ContextFrequency of Threatening Media ReferencesExpected earningsConsumer confidence index

U.S. Policy ContextAvailability of Legal VisasBorder enforcement factor

Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of Undocumented Migration

First Undocumented Trip to the U.S.

Additional Undocumented Trips to the U.S.

β SE β SE

U.S. Socioeconomic Context

Frequency of Threatening Media References -0.0026 ** 0.0013 0.0024 0.0015

Expected earnings 0.0004 *** 0.0004 -0.0045 *** 0.0005

Consumer confidence index 0.0048 *** 0.0010 0.0055 *** 0.0012

U.S. Policy Context

Availability of Legal Visas -4.5095 *** 0.3315 -4.3981 *** 0.4328

Border Enforcement Factor 0.1682 *** 0.0412 0.0959 ** 0.0392

Intercept -7.1785 *** 0.2598 1.8144 *** 0.3735

Likelihood Ratio 4740.5351 *** 3889.1290 ***

Wald 3291.3784 *** 2745.6100 ***

Total number of person-years 684,128 82,735

*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$0.00

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

Cost of Border Crossing in 2010 US Dollars

Year

Cost

in U

S Do

llars

1965 Act IRCA

BorderBlockades

Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

En

trie

s

Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Probability of Returning to Mexico within 12 Months

First Trip Later Trip

Year

Prob

abili

ty

Bracero Program EndsWH Quotas Imposed IRCA Passes 1996 Acts

PATRIOT Act

Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of Return Migration

First Return from U.S. Trip within 12 months

Additional Returns from U.S. Trip within 12 months

β SE β SE

U.S. Social Context

Frequency of Threatening Media References 0.0022 0.0021 0.0038 ** 0.0018

Expected earnings 0.0004 ** 0.0007 -0.0036 *** 0.0006

Consumer confidence index -0.0035 ** 0.0017 -0.0004 0.0014

U.S. Policy Context

Availability of Legal Visas -2.3915 *** 0.5821 -3.2181 *** 0.5258

Border enforcement factor -0.2093 *** 0.0727 0.3312 *** 0.0492

Intercept -8.0701 *** 0.4327 0.9421 ** 0.4549

Likelihood Ratio 8390.8329 *** 3252.6061 ***

Wald 10050.2181 *** 2670.5435 ***

Total number of person-years 679,488 66,312

*p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01

Back to the Future: Flows Then and Now

• 1956-1957– 57,000 Documented Migrants per Year– 441,000 Guestworkers per Year– 498,000 Total Legal Entries per Year– Apprehension Rate: 38.4 Migrants per Agent & Falling

• 2008-2009– 177,000 Documented Migrants Per Year– 331,000 Guestworkers per Year– 508,000 Total Legal Entries per Year– Apprehension Rate: 34.5 Migrants per Agent & Falling

Major Difference Between Then and Now:Resident Undocumented Population

– 1956-1957• Effectively Zero

– 2007-2008• Currently Estimated at 10.8 Million• 60% of all Undocumented Migrants Are Mexican• 55% of All Mexicans Present in US Are Undocumented

– Of 11 Million Undocumented Migrants• 3+ Million Entered as children• 500,000-1 Million Former Temporary Protected Status

Reacción en Cadena: Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos

Douglas S. MasseyWoodrow Wilson School

Princeton University