re-orienting adaptation strategies to climate change enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable...

Re-orienting Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change

Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of Vulnerable Areas

Introducer: Georgios D. AntoniouIntroducer: Georgios D. Antoniou

[email protected]

Ecology and SustainabilityEcology and Sustainability

mailto:[email protected]

Outline

• Climate change – Myth or reality?Climate change – Myth or reality?

• The concept of adaptation.The concept of adaptation.

• Re-orientation needs – The case of Small Re-orientation needs – The case of Small Island Development States.Island Development States.

• Management under anarchy – A way out.Management under anarchy – A way out.

Re-orienting Adaptation Strategies to Climate ChangeGeorgios D. Antoniou

Myth…

3 - dimensional acceleration of the wind 3 - dimensional acceleration of the wind

Internal dynamics of the atmosphereInternal dynamics of the atmosphere

Obscured byObscured by

NoiseNoise

Heat transfer Heat transfer processprocess

Unidentified role of cloudsUnidentified role of clouds

Variations in Sun’sVariations in Sun’soutputoutput

Ocean buffering capacityOcean buffering capacity

Obs

cure

d by

Obs

cure

d by

NoiseNoise


Myth…

"Why require the nations of this planet to spend the "Why require the nations of this planet to spend the hundreds of billions of dollars necessary to reduce hundreds of billions of dollars necessary to reduce carbon dioxide and other emissions when we don't carbon dioxide and other emissions when we don't even know if the earth's climate is getting even know if the earth's climate is getting permanently hotter or if that temperature change is permanently hotter or if that temperature change is caused by human activity or if that change is even caused by human activity or if that change is even dangerous?“dangerous?“

Wall Street Journal (Editorial, July, 2001)


or reality…

Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to Climate Change (2005)

“Climate Change is Real”


Summary

Climate is an enormously complex system and Climate is an enormously complex system and uncertainty is one of the major variables of the uncertainty is one of the major variables of the most variegated scientific model regarding its most variegated scientific model regarding its change. The anthropogenic heating signal is change. The anthropogenic heating signal is obscured by the noise of internal variations. obscured by the noise of internal variations. However, the impacts are real and they cost However, the impacts are real and they cost

Stern Report 2006Stern Report 2006


The rise of the concept of adaptation

• Mitigation strategies – Are they able to strike Mitigation strategies – Are they able to strike balance between impacts and social justice?balance between impacts and social justice?

• A preferable alternative to current stalemate which A preferable alternative to current stalemate which leads to incrementalism and/or inaction.leads to incrementalism and/or inaction.

• Lack of direct experience with Climate Change and its Lack of direct experience with Climate Change and its impacts.impacts.

• Inclusive and flexible in terms of precise goals and Inclusive and flexible in terms of precise goals and means. means.

Imagine a policy intervention that only achieves goals related to Climate Change…

Stakeholders: A direct relation to vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Determinant Dependence on income Dependence on government

Economic resourcesHigh Medium

Technology High High

InfrastructureHigh High

Information and skillsMedium High

Institutions Medium High

EquityLow Medium


McCarthy 2001,, p.. 895

Michaelowa 2005

Adaptation and mitigation: Development tools

Climate change Temperature rise

Sea level risePrecipitation changeDraughts and floods

Impacts on human and natural systemsFood & water resources

Ecosystem & biodiversity Human settlements

Human health

Emissions Emissions control and control and alternative alternative strategiesstrategies

Socio economic development paths

Economic growthPopulation

Technology Governance

AADDAAPPTTAATTIIOONN

AdaptationAdaptation

NNOOIITTAAGGIITTII

MMAdapted from Metz 2005


Adaptation: An assessment• No project falls squarely within the scope of the No project falls squarely within the scope of the

UNFCCC.UNFCCC.

• Inadequate co-financing leads to inaccessible funds.Inadequate co-financing leads to inaccessible funds.

• Unclear synergies and multiple benefits.Unclear synergies and multiple benefits.

• Mitigation looks Mitigation looks better from a benefit-cost better from a benefit-cost standpoint.standpoint.


Summary

The potential for developing synergies between climate The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy. However, focus of both climate research and policy. However, institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness present major challenges to the present major challenges to the widespread development widespread development of synergies. In particular adaptation remains a blurred of synergies. In particular adaptation remains a blurred issue yet to be quantified. issue yet to be quantified.


Why Small Island Development States?

• They are projected to suffer They are projected to suffer disproportionatelydisproportionately..• Only in the 1990s, the cost of extreme weather events Only in the 1990s, the cost of extreme weather events

exceeded exceeded US$ US$ 1bn.1bn.• Limited adaptation projects confined to WRM.Limited adaptation projects confined to WRM.• Extremely important ecosystems are endangeredExtremely important ecosystems are endangered• Environmental refugees are the harsh reality.Environmental refugees are the harsh reality.• Re-allocation plans/mechanisms do not exist.Re-allocation plans/mechanisms do not exist.


Climate change refugees: The next big thing

• Pacific island chain of VanuatuPacific island chain of Vanuatu: December 2005. : December 2005. Movement to Tegua.Movement to Tegua.

• Tuvalu, Pacific Islands: February 2000.Tuvalu, Pacific Islands: February 2000.• Marshall Islands: 2000.Marshall Islands: 2000.• Kiribati: 2000.Kiribati: 2000.• Fiji Islands & Papua New Guinea: Armed forces Fiji Islands & Papua New Guinea: Armed forces

ready for conflict.ready for conflict.


Social injustice…

Global warming is a problem for which SIDS bear little responsibility, but are at disproportionate

risk. In terms of per capita emissions of CO2 , SIDS people emit less than ¼ of the global

average, yet they are particularly vulnerable.

Developed countries: Adaptation issueSIDS: Security issue


Enhancing adaptive capacity… How?

• Identification of major components.Identification of major components.• Realization of the need for a multi-level adaptation Realization of the need for a multi-level adaptation

process.process.• Determination of social capital.Determination of social capital.• Assignment of an alternative tactic: A move Assignment of an alternative tactic: A move

beyond Kyoto.beyond Kyoto.• Designation of potential allies.Designation of potential allies.

This is only the 1st step… This is only the 1st step…


Summary

Climate change forms both a security and an equality Climate change forms both a security and an equality issue. Benefits and losses from potential impacts issue. Benefits and losses from potential impacts and designed/applied policies are inequitably and designed/applied policies are inequitably distributed. SIDS are the losers in this game while distributed. SIDS are the losers in this game while the issues of potential migration of their population the issues of potential migration of their population constitutes a plague for their national sovereignty constitutes a plague for their national sovereignty and a herald of conflict. The solution lies on the and a herald of conflict. The solution lies on the enhancement of their adaptive capacity. enhancement of their adaptive capacity.


Management under anarchy

• Absence of government above the level of the Absence of government above the level of the states – State of anarchy (Waltz 1979).states – State of anarchy (Waltz 1979).

• Common management – A coercive Leviathan.Common management – A coercive Leviathan.• Common obstacles at 3 stages:Common obstacles at 3 stages:– Bargaining;Bargaining;– Transition;Transition;– ImplementationImplementation


The way out!• Adaptive management – An experimental Adaptive management – An experimental

apprenticeship process.apprenticeship process.• Today’s adoption of an adaptive management Today’s adoption of an adaptive management

scheme will create incentives to deviate tomorrow.scheme will create incentives to deviate tomorrow.• Thus, action on international level – where “local Thus, action on international level – where “local

constraints ” are jealously guarded – is neededconstraints ” are jealously guarded – is needed• Policy treatments in need of centralized Policy treatments in need of centralized

coordination - In need of a manager!coordination - In need of a manager!


The only way out…

AOSIS Vs the JUSCANZAOSIS Vs the JUSCANZ

• Policy level Policy level - The United Nations is the only - The United Nations is the only institution that can provide robust support and institution that can provide robust support and comparability on issues such as climate change comparability on issues such as climate change refugees.refugees.

• Science Level Science Level - The support of the WMO and the - The support of the WMO and the IPCC is necessary.IPCC is necessary.

• Assessment Level Assessment Level – National reporting– National reporting.


Is it really a way out?

Adaptive management in the active sense is unrealistic Adaptive management in the active sense is unrealistic approach to climate change at the international level approach to climate change at the international level because on its emphasis on:because on its emphasis on:

• Top-down;Top-down;• Structured; and Structured; and • Controlled experimentationControlled experimentation

Nevertheless, it is the only viable way to proceed Nevertheless, it is the only viable way to proceed against uncertainty and evolve over time.against uncertainty and evolve over time.


Thank you very much for your attentionThank you very much for your attention

The FCCC World The FCCC World Vs Vs the Bright Sun World.the Bright Sun World.

Vulnerability


Crowards 1999

The costs…Estimated costs of extreme weather events in the Pacific Island Regions During the 90s (in millions of US$)

Events Year Country Estimated Losses

Cyclone Ofa 1990 Samoa 140

Cyclone Val 1991 Samoa 300

Typhoon Omar 1992 Guam 300

Cyclone Nina 1993 Solomon Islands -

Cyclone Prema 1993 Vanuatu -

Cyclone Kina 1993 Fiji 140

Cyclone Martin 1997 Cook Island 7.5

Cyclone Hina 1997 Tonga 14.5

Drought 1998 Regional >175

Cyclone Cora 1998 Tonga 56

Cyclone Alan 1999 French Polynesia -

Cyclone Dani 1999 Fiji 3.5

Campbell 1999


re-orienting adaptation strategies to climate change enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable...

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