re-initiating coverage, 23 november 2015

23
See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1 Re-initiating Coverage, 23 November 2015 Better World Green (BWG TB) Buy (Maintained) Industrial - Waste & Environment Services Target Price: THB2.80 Market Cap: USD140m Price: THB1.52 Waste Not, Want Not Macro Risks Growth Value 86 101 116 131 146 161 176 191 206 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 Better World Green PCL (BWG TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 1 1 1 1 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Vol bn Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 38.5m/1.08m Cons. Upside (%) 43.4 Upside (%) 84.2 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 1.21 - 2.43 Free float (%) 92 Share outstanding (m) 3,317 Shareholders (%) Suwat Luengviriya 5.7 Sippakorn Kaosa-ard 3.6 Charassri Pongpirodom 2.9 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 11.8 1.3 (8.4) (20.0) 21.6 Relative 19.1 3.4 (6.6) (11.8) 33.5 Shariah compliant Chun Phokaisawan +66 2862 2029 [email protected] Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total turnover (THBm) 1,333 1,504 1,690 1,988 2,695 Reported net profit (THBm) 163 203 294 355 564 Recurring net profit (THBm) 163 203 294 355 564 Recurring net profit growth (%) 110.5 24.3 45.0 20.5 59.0 Recurring EPS (THB) 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.14 DPS (THB) 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 Recurring P/E (x) 26.6 24.0 18.6 17.1 10.8 P/B (x) 2.97 2.89 2.17 1.79 1.58 P/CF (x) 11.1 11.3 9.8 9.2 5.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 9.2 7.3 5.9 3.5 Return on average equity (%) 11.9 12.9 14.0 12.0 15.6 Net debt to equity (%) 17.1 9.6 net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, RHB We re-initiate coverage on Better World Green (BWG), a provider of hazardous and non-hazardous industrial waste management services, with a BUY and a THB2.80/share TP derived from an SOP valuation, which results in an 84% estimated upside return. We like the company as it is one of the few players which will benefit from the new governmental industrial waste management policy. We expect its earnings to surge by 38% CAGR over the next two years from its RDF project and the 16MW waste power plants. Waste not, want not. The company gets paid to properly dispose of the industrial waste (IW); it turns the IW into refused derived fuel (RDF) which it sells as an alternative fuel source to power plants (gross profit margin ~50%). The company will further add value by building its own IW-fueled power plants and selling the electricity generated to the grid. Earnings estimated to grow at a 38% CAGR over the next two years from new projects. BWG plans to more than double its RDF production capacity from 200tonnes/day to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16. Its two waste power plants with a total installed capacity of 16MW, are expected to begin on a commercial operation date (COD) in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively. We estimate earnings to grow by approximately 21%/59% YoY in FY16/FY17 respectively, as the company starts recognizing revenue contribution from the RDF project and its two power plants. A huge potential for waste processors as only 25% of industrial waste is properly disposed. Thailand produces 50.3mtpa of non-hazardous and 3.3mtpa hazardous waste while only 12.2mtpa and 1.0mtpa of non- hazardous and hazardous waste are currently properly disposed by the waste management companies. The Ministry of Industry has recently set a target to reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0mtpa and 0.4mtpa respectively – providing a huge potential for waste processors. Potential further upside as an MoU was recently signed with the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to study and develop renewable energy industrial estate from unused material. As this venture is currently in the negotiating stage, we have not yet included it into our TP. Key risks: an economic slowdown and a weaker consumer confidence may cause BWG’s customers to lower their production. Potential legal risk if hazardous or non-hazardous wastes are not properly disposed.

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See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 1

Re-initiating Coverage, 23 November 2015

Better World Green (BWG TB) Buy (Maintained) Industrial - Waste & Environment Services Target Price: THB2.80 Market Cap: USD140m Price: THB1.52

Waste Not, Want Not Macro

Risks

Growth

Value

86

101

116

131

146

161

176

191

206

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

Better World Green PCL (BWG TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

1

1

1

1

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep

-15

Vol b

n

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 38.5m/1.08m Cons. Upside (%) 43.4 Upside (%) 84.2 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 1.21 - 2.43 Free float (%) 92 Share outstanding (m) 3,317 Shareholders (%) Suwat Luengviriya 5.7 Sippakorn Kaosa-ard 3.6 Charassri Pongpirodom 2.9 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 11.8 1.3 (8.4) (20.0) 21.6 Relative 19.1 3.4 (6.6) (11.8) 33.5 Shariah compliant Chun Phokaisawan +66 2862 2029 [email protected]

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17FTotal turnover (THBm) 1,333 1,504 1,690 1,988 2,695Reported net profit (THBm) 163 203 294 355 564Recurring net profit (THBm) 163 203 294 355 564Recurring net profit growth (%) 110.5 24.3 45.0 20.5 59.0Recurring EPS (THB) 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.14DPS (THB) 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03Recurring P/E (x) 26.6 24.0 18.6 17.1 10.8P/B (x) 2.97 2.89 2.17 1.79 1.58P/CF (x) 11.1 11.3 9.8 9.2 5.9Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.9EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 9.2 7.3 5.9 3.5Return on average equity (%) 11.9 12.9 14.0 12.0 15.6Net debt to equity (%) 17.1 9.6 net cash net cash net cashOur vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Source: Company data, RHB

We re-initiate coverage on Better World Green (BWG), a provider of hazardous and non-hazardous industrial waste management services, with a BUY and a THB2.80/share TP derived from an SOP valuation, which results in an 84% estimated upside return. We like the company as it is one of the few players which will benefit from the new governmental industrial waste management policy. We expect its earnings to surge by 38% CAGR over the next two years from its RDF project and the 16MW waste power plants. ♦ Waste not, want not. The company gets paid to properly dispose of the

industrial waste (IW); it turns the IW into refused derived fuel (RDF) which it sells as an alternative fuel source to power plants (gross profit margin ~50%). The company will further add value by building its own IW-fueled power plants and selling the electricity generated to the grid.

♦ Earnings estimated to grow at a 38% CAGR over the next two years from new projects. BWG plans to more than double its RDF production capacity from 200tonnes/day to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16. Its two waste power plants with a total installed capacity of 16MW, are expected to begin on a commercial operation date (COD) in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively. We estimate earnings to grow by approximately 21%/59% YoY in FY16/FY17 respectively, as the company starts recognizing revenue contribution from the RDF project and its two power plants.

♦ A huge potential for waste processors as only 25% of industrial waste is properly disposed. Thailand produces 50.3mtpa of non-hazardous and 3.3mtpa hazardous waste while only 12.2mtpa and 1.0mtpa of non-hazardous and hazardous waste are currently properly disposed by the waste management companies. The Ministry of Industry has recently set a target to reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0mtpa and 0.4mtpa respectively – providing a huge potential for waste processors.

♦ Potential further upside as an MoU was recently signed with the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to study and develop renewable energy industrial estate from unused material. As this venture is currently in the negotiating stage, we have not yet included it into our TP.

♦ Key risks: an economic slowdown and a weaker consumer confidence may cause BWG’s customers to lower their production. Potential legal risk if hazardous or non-hazardous wastes are not properly disposed.

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Table Of Contents

Investment Merits 3

Valuation And Recommendation 4

Core Business 6

Industry Overview 8

Financial Analysis 10

Key Risks 12

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Investment Merits We value Better World Green (BWG) at THB2.80 per share, based on an SOP valuation. We expect earnings to surge by 20.5% YoY and 59.0% YoY in 2016F and 2017F respectively, with growth coming from its RDF capacity expansion project and its two waste power plants. We have not included any potential further upside from its industrial estate business, which could add approximately THB0.05 to our TP.

We value its waste management business at THB2.42/share based on DCF with a WACC of 9.7% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We value its two power plants at THB0.38/share based on DCF with a WACC of 8.2% and assume i) 20 years plant life ii) bases tariff of THB6.08/unit and Feed in Tariff premium of THB0.7/unit for the first 8 years upon COD iii) 0% tax for 8years and iv) average EBITDA margin of 75%.

Plenty of room to grow its waste management business. Ministry of industry has estimated that the manufacturing industry in Thailand produces 50.3m tonnes/annum (tpa) and 3.3 tpa of non-hazardous and hazardous waste respectively, based on the total installed power. However, only 12.2mtpa and 1.0mtpa of non-hazardous and hazardous waste were disposed properly by the waste management companies. Meanwhile, BWG, who is the leading industrial waste management companies, only managed around 0.4mtpa of industrial waste. We believe there is a real opportunity for the company to grow in the future given that the Ministry of Industry set a target to reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0mtpa and 0.4mtpa respectively, while there are only limited number of waste management companies with landfilled sites.

RDF production capacity expansion. In 2013, the company started a renewable energy project which produces refused derived fuel (RDF), an alternative fuel, by shredding and dehydrating industrial waste. RDF produced from this project can be used as a substitute source of fuel in coal power plants and could be sold at THB1,000-1,500/tonne. BWG plans to expand its RDF production capacity to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16 from the current production capacity of 200tonnes/day. We estimate that revenue from the RDF sale will increase from THB10m in 2015 to THB100m in 2016F and will account for around 5.3% of the company’s total revenue in 2016. Note that this project will also reduce the amount of waste going into the landfill and free up more landfill space since around 80% of new incoming waste will be used to produce the RDF.

New industrial waste power plants to boost earnings in 2017. BWG has secured 20 years PPA contracts from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) for its two industrial waste power plants under the Feed in Tariffs scheme. The two power plants would have installed capacity of 9MW and 7MW respectively. The 9MW power plant is scheduled to commercially operation date (COD) in 3Q16, while the 7MW plant is scheduled to COD in 1Q17. We expect the company’s earnings to grow by 59.0% YoY in 2017F mainly due to electricity sale revenue contribution from the two power plants. Specifically, contribution from the two plants should account for 30% of the company’s total revenue in 2017. Additionally, the company plans to invest in three more industrial waste power plant projects totalling 30MW over the next 3-5 years. We estimate the potential upside of THB0.76 for the additional 30 MW. However, we have not included this amount into our TP as the company has not yet secured the PPA contracts from EGAT.

Venturing into industrial estate business. BWG plans to build 3-4 industrial estates specifically for factories that generate a high volume of industrial waste. The company plans to invest in the land and infrastructure for the industrial estate then sell out the land to the interested clients; in this context the company has recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to study and develop renewable energy industrial estate from unused material. The investment cost for one industrial estate is estimated at THB1.0bn (for 1,000 rai of land and infrastructure). We are assuming i) project IRR of 17%, ii) a discount rate of 9.9% and iii) the company holds 50% stake in the project. However, since the project is currently in the negotiating stage, we have not included into our TP this potential upside amount of approximately THB0.05/share per one industrial estate.

♦ SOP valuation results in THB2.80/share

♦ Earnings expected to surge by 20.5% YoY and 59.0% YoY for 2016/17

♦ Only 25% of industry waste is properly disposed, providing huge potential for waste processors

♦ RDF enhances value of the waste collected and revenue derived is expected to increase to THB100m in 2016 from THB10m in 2015.

♦ Earnings expected to jump by 59.0% YoY in 2017F, with contributions from other industrial waste power plants; these plants will account for c.30% of total revenue by then. Another 30MW from an IW power plant may be added over the next 3-5years horizon

♦ Industrial estate business could provide an upside of THB0.05/industrial estate to our current TP

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Valuation And Recommendation Through an SOP, we value BWG at THB2.80/share and recommend BUY. We expect core earnings to grow at a CAGR of 38% over the next two years from THB294m in 2015 to THB564m in 2017 which includes the RDF capacity expansion project and its two new waste power plants. We value its waste management business (Figure 2) at THB2.42/share and its two power plant projects (Figure 3) at THB0.38/share. Over the next 3-5 years, BWG plans to invest in three more industrial waste power plant projects totalling 30MW and we estimate the potential upside of THB0.76/share. We believe there is a high probability that the company will receive the PPA contracts for these additional 30 MW from EGAT since the Ministry of Energy set a total installed capacity target of 50MW for industrial waste power plants before 2036. However, we have not included this potential upside in our TP as the company has not yet secured the PPA contracts from EGAT.

Its two warrants “BWG-W2” and “BWG-W3” will expire in December 2015 and June 2016 respectively. There are currently 286.2 units of BWG-W2 and 395.6 units of BWG-W3 outstanding with an exercise price of THB1.50/unit (conversion ratio of 1 warrant to 1 ordinary share). We assume the warrants will be fully exercised and our TP is based on a fully diluted number of 4,000m shares, thus the TP should not be subjected to any further dilutive impact from the exercise of these two warrants. Figure 1: BWG’s SOP valuation

THB/share Valuation Method Waste management business 2.42 DCF, WACC 9.7% Two waste power plants 0.38 DCF, WACC 8.2% TP 2.80 Potential upside 30 MW waste power plant 0.76 TP (including potential upside) 3.56

Source: RHB

We value BWG’s waste management business at THB2.42/share based on a DCF with a WACC of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Figure 2: Valuation detail of the waste management business

Source: RHB

We value BWG’s two power plant projects at THB0.38/share based on a DCF with a WACC of 8.2%. We assume i) 20 years plant life ii) bases tariff of THB6.08/unit and Feed in Tariff premium of THB0.7/unit for the first 8 years upon COD (iii) BOI privilege of 0% tax for the first 8years and 20% tax rate thereafter and (iv) average EBITDA margin of 75%. We also assume no terminal value since the PPA contract expire after 20 years thus we conservatively assume all assets are fully depreciated by then and there is no salvage value.

Figure 3: Valuation detail for the two waste power plants

Source: RHB

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Figure 4: Sensitivity analysis of the company’s waste management business

Source: RHB

We used a peer comparison as a corroborative method to our SOP. Although the company is currently trading at approximately similar P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA multiples to those of its peers (Figure 5), we believe that BTG is more attractive as it offers a higher growth potential.

Figure 5: Peer comparison Company Ticker PE (x) PB (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) Waste Management Inc WM US 19.4 4.1 9.1 12.8 5.6 Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd BIN US 19.0 2.0 7.8 10.9 4.9 Takeei Corp 2151 JP 14.2 0.9 5.4 6.4 n.a. Transpacific Industries Group Ltd TPI AU 18.1 0.5 4.8 3.0 2.5 China Everbright International Ltd 257 HK 18.9 2.7 12.6 13.3 7.0 Better World Green BWG TB 17.1 1.7 6.5 10.7 7.9 Average (ex BWG) 17.9 2.0 7.9 9.3 5.0

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 7.8 2.52 2.69 2.92 3.25 3.75 8.3 2.39 2.53 2.72 2.98 3.36 8.8 2.27 2.39 2.55 2.76 3.06 9.3 2.16 2.27 2.40 2.57 2.81 9.8 2.07 2.16 2.27 2.42 2.61

10.3 1.99 2.06 2.16 2.28 2.44 10.8 1.91 1.98 2.06 2.16 2.29 11.3 1.84 1.90 1.97 2.06 2.17 11.8 1.78 1.83 1.89 1.97 2.06

Terminal growth (%)

WACC (%)

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

The Core Businesses Better World Green Public Company Limited (BWG) was established in 1997 with registered capital of only THB1m. The company operates under a “one-stop service” concept and provides complete industrial waste management services, including i) non-hazardous waste treatment, ii) hazardous waste treatment, iii) waste water treatment, iv) waste recycling & quality improvement of waste to be used as raw material and sustainable fuel energy and iv) other supporting business.

Figure 6: Business structure

Figure 7: Revenue breakdown by business unit

15.7 13.8 18.0 18.3 12.2

16.6 13.019.6 16.4

17.4

21.319.1

17.1 19.2 23.0

34.734.6

42.8 42.7 42.8

10.0 17.5

0.3 0.9

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sanitary Landfill Secure Landfill Waste water

Quality Improvement Subsidiaries Construction

(%)

Source: Company data Source: Company data, RHB

Non-hazardous waste treatment: the company offers non-hazardous waste management service for mid-large size manufacturers. The company adopts a German landfill system which meets international standards with a control system to prevent pollution to the soil, water, air in the surrounding area. The site is located in Saraburi province with a total service capacity of 1,000 tonnes/day.

Hazardous waste treatment: BWG also offers management service for hazardous waste. After the toxic level in the industrial waste was reduced to government regulated levels, the company would bury the proceeds in the company’s own secured landfill which is located in the Saraburi province and has a total service capacity of 500 tonnes/day.

Quality improvement & waste recycling: the company improves the quality of non-hazardous and hazardous waste which can be recycled into an alternative fuel with a high heating value. The company can handle up to 1,000 tonnes/day of industrial waste. In addition, the company has a system for filtering and processing industrial waste into RDF which can be used as alternative fuel, which is suitable for steam boilers. The company currently has an RDF production capacity of 200 tonnes/day.

Waste water treatment: such service is composed of chemical and biological treatment systems with a total capacity of up to 450 cubic meters of waste water per day. Treated waste water is recycled and used within the company without draining it to an outside area (Figure 9).

Other supporting business: the four subsidiaries providing supporting services for BWG (which account for around 40% of total revenue) are Better Waste Care (broker and marketing), Better World Transport (waste transportation service), Earth Tech Environment (recycler of industrial waste) and Akkhie Prakarn (industrial incinerator plant). Of the total income derived from these four subsidiaries, the one from Akkie Prakarn accounts for 80% and is a 51%-owned by BWG (49% by retail investors).

Industrial waste power plants. BWG secured 20 years PPA contracts from EGAT for its two industrial waste power plants under the Feed in Tariffs scheme. The two power plants will have an installed capacity of 9MW and 7MW respectively. The 9MW power plant is scheduled to COD in 3Q16, while the 7MW power plant is scheduled to COD in 1Q17. These power plants will be built relying on the newest technology and will use RDF as fuel. The investment cost for the two power plants is expected to be around THB2.4bn. Both plants are located in the Saraburi province and the company will have a 60% stake in the two projects while the remainder 40% stake is held by the company’s partner who has an extensive experience in power business.

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

Figure 8: BWG’s landfill site

Figure 9: Waste water treatment site

Source: Company data Source: Company data

BWG’s target customers are mid- to large-size manufacturers (eg. Rayong Purifier PCL, Pepsi-Cola Thailand Trading Co Ltd, or Yakult Thailand Ltd) which are mainly located in the central and eastern regions of Thailand (Figure 10).

Around 70% of the company’s customers are manufacturers of electronic appliance and automobile parts located in the industrial estates such as Rojana Industrial Estate, Hi-tech Industrial Estate, and Bang-pa-in Industrial Estate. In the future, the company plans to further expand its customer base by providing its services to communities in the suburban areas. Specifically, the company plans to either build waste management centers for the communities or provide consultation services only with the local government providing the financing for projects.

Figure 10: Customers By Region

Source: Company data, RHB

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 8

Industry Overview The amount of industrial waste produced is highly correlated to the level of industrial production (IP). As the economy grows, the amount of industrial waste produced is expected to grow accordingly. According to the Ministry of Industry, of the total of 75,000 factories in Thailand approximately 97.5 percent are waste generators (WG) and only 2.4 percent are waste processors who specialize in waste treatment/disposal/recycle (WP). The Ministry of Industry estimated that manufactures in Thailand produce around 50.3m tonnes and 3.3m tonnes of non-hazardous and hazardous waste per year respectively. However, only 12.2m tonnes and 1.0m tonnes of non-hazardous and hazardous waste respectively were properly disposed by WP in 2014. In other words, only 5,300 factories or around 7% of the total factories in Thailand disposed their waste appropriately. As such, many manufacturers do not dispose their waste appropriately and creating the current illegal dumping issue in Thailand.

Figure 11: Breakdown of the total factories in Thailand

Waste Generator98%

Waste Processor2%

Source: Ministry of Industry In 2005, the Ministry of Industry issued an announcement on the industrial act “Por Sor 2548” based on industrial act “Por Sor 2535”, which required all manufacturers to be responsible for the wasted they created and mandated them to dispose the waste correctly. However, illegal disposal of industrial waste is still occurring nowadays since disposing waste correctly will incur additional costs on manufactures which in turn could damage their competitiveness. As a result, some manufacturers decide to dispose of waste illegally. Currently, the Government has become more aware of such an issue and is trying to prevent it by monitoring manufacturers’ waste transportation systems to ensure that industrial waste is properly disposed. The Ministry of Industry has set a target to enforce more factories to dispose their waste correctly from 2015-2019, which in turn, should reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0m tonnes and 0.4m tonnes per year respectively.

Figure 12: Estimated total industrial waste produced in Thailand

38.1

2.3

12.2

10

10

20

30

40

50

60

Non-Hazardous Hazardous

Illegaly disposed Disposed by WP

(tons)

Source: Ministry of industry

Waste management in Thailand is under the legislation of the Thai Government; the Government set out laws and regulations regarding the waste management process in the country. Since an industrial waste management company needs to obtain approvals from the Pollution Control Department (PCD), the Environmental Impact

♦ Only 7% of total factories in Thailand dispose of their IW properly.

♦ Although regulations mandate proper disposal of waste, illegal disposal remains rampant

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 9

Assessments (EIA), and Health Impact Assessments (HIA), the industry has high barriers to entry and a limited number of players.

Specifically, besides BWG, there are only two major competitors in the landfill waste management business, which are the Professional Waste Technology (PRO) and The General Environmental Conservation (GENCO) (GENCO TB, NR). BWG is the biggest player with a market share of around 50%. According to Thailand’s Ministry of Industry, Thai manufacturers produced around 50m tonnes of waste in 2015, while the three major players in the waste management industry processed a combined total of around 0.8m tonnes of waste in the same year. Furthermore, the three players’ processing plants are located in different regions of the country. Therefore, the competition in the industry is still low.

Figure 13: Energy from alternative power plants set to almost triple by 2036 Energy Type 2014 (MW) Target in 2036 (MW)Municipal solid w aste (MSW) 66 500Industrial waste 0 50Biomass 2,452 5,570Biogas 312 600Biogas (Energy crop) 0 680Small hydropow er 142 376Wind 224 3,002Solar 1,299 6,000Large hydropow er 2,906 2,906Total 7,400 19,684

Source: Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015 Given the overflowing amount of industrial waste and the illegal dumping issue, the government set up a subsidy scheme for waste power plant to address this issue. According to the Alternative Energy Development plan 2015, total installed capacity from industrial waste power plants could grow to 50MW by 2036. Out of the total 50MW capacity, BWG has already secured the 20 years PPAs for two industrial waste power plants, of 9MW and 7MW, which we expect to COD in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively. According to the Ministry of Energy, EGAT will buy the electricity from very small power producers (VSPP) who use RDF (industrial waste) as fuel, at an average rate of 6.93/Kwh

Figure 14: Leveled cost of renewable energy

Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF)-Mixed from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)- Less than or equal 1 MW 7.35- More than 1-3 MW 6.73- More than 3 MW 5.93Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF)-Landfilled 5.6Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF)-Industrial 6.93Biomass Less than or equal 1 MW 5.99- More than 1-3 MW 5.41- More than 3 MW 4.68Biogas (Waste) 4.1Biogas (Energy crops) 6.03Hydro Less than or equal 200 KW 4.9Wind 6.06 6.06Solar on ground 5.66Roof top- 0-10 KW 6.85- More than 10-250KW 6.4- More than 250-1,000 KW 6.01

Levelized cost (THB/Unit)Type

Source: Ministry of energy

Note that the players in industrial waste power plant business are not the same players as in the municipal solid waste (MSW) power plant industry. The PCD approval is required for industrial waste which is regulated by the Government, while the MSW is not regulated. As such, we expect the competition in the industrial waste power plant business to be very limited relative to MSW’s since the players in the MSW industry focus only on the municipal waste.

♦ BWG is the largest player, with a 50% market share. PRO and GENCO are the other players, but they operate in different regions. Competition is therefore low and plenty of room to grow for the existing players.

♦ Energy from industrial waste power plants to grow to 50MW by 2036; BWG has already secured 30% of this capacity.

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 10

Financial Analysis The company’s total revenue grew at an average rate of 19.7% per annum from THB1.06bn in 2012 to THB1.51bn in 2014 mainly due to higher average selling price. Average selling price grew from THB2,760/tonne in 2012 to THB3,912/tonne in 2014 while the total volume of industrial waste disposed by the company increased slightly from 384k tonnes in 2012 to 388k tonnes in 2014. Note that the revenue from the quality improvement unit grew the most from 2012-2014.

Note that the average selling price is based on the waste management service and transportation costs plus a certain profit margin; it is adjusted on a yearly basis.

Figure 15: Sales growth averaged 19.7% p.a from 2012-2014.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

191 248 186 204 245 282208

221 264 304350

40223

28 55 6270

78

182259 349 340

437 343453

577649

779

781 782

107

808

Sanitary Landfill Secure Landfill Waste water Quality Improvement Subsidiaries Construction Electricity sale

(THBm)

Source: Company data, RHB We expect total sale to increase by 12.3% YoY to THB1.69bn in 2015 as we forecast the total volume of industrial waste disposal to increase by around 6-7% YoY to 411.34 thousand tonnes while average selling price increase 5% YoY to THB4,108/tonnes. However, we expect the company’s total sale to grow 17.6% YoY to THB1.98bn in 2016 and 35.5% YoY to THB2.69bn in 2017 as i) the company will increase its RDF production capacity to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16 from the current production capacity of 200tonnes/day and ii) the company’s two waste power plants, with installed capacity of 9MW and 7MW, will start their COD in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively Figure 16: Total volume of industrial waste and average selling price

278,576

318,633

384,168 391,437 388,058411,341

506,355

428,846

2,560

3,298

2,760

3,451

3,912 4,108

3,718

4,395

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Industrial waste disposal volume Average selling price/ton

(tons) (THB)

Source: Company data, RHB

Note that the we expect the total volume of industrial waste to decline in 2017 as the company plans to use around 500tonnes of RDF/day as fuel for its two waste power plants. Additionally, the average selling price should improve significantly in 2107

♦ We expect sales to grow by 59.4% over the next 2 years.

♦ Sales may jump by 17.6% YoY/ 35.5% YoY for 2016 & 2017 as the company increases RDF production capacity and two waste power plants commence operations

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 11

after a decline in 2016 since the average selling price of RDF is much lower than the average selling price of other services (THB1,000/tonne vs THB4,108)

Gross profit margin consistently increased from 28.5% in 2012 to 34.7% in 2014 mainly as a result of i) higher average selling price which was the result of company’s marketing strategy and stricter industrial waste management policy by the Government and ii) the RDF project which yielded higher profit margins. Note that the company also has high bargaining power over its customer as waste management policy is regulated by the Government and there are only few players in the industry.

We expect the company gross profit margin to improve significantly from 39.2% in 2015 to 47.8% in 2017 as the company starts recognizing revenue from its waste power plants, where the company will receive a Feed in Tariff premium of THB0.7/unit on top of the Feed in Tariff of THB6.08/unit for the first eight years of the projects.

Figure 17: Margins set to improve

28.532.8

34.7

39.241.1

47.8

27.4

31.935.4

40.242.4

51.6

7.3

12.2 13.517.4 17.8

20.9

0

10

20

30

40

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60

2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Gross profit margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin

(%)

Source: Company data, RHB Core earnings are expected to grow 20.5% YoY to THB355m in 2016 and 59.0% YoY to THB564m in 2017. The surge in core earnings in FY16 is due to higher sale from its RDF expansion while the growth in 2017 earnings is mainly due to the earnings contribution from its two waste power plants which will receive BOI benefits.

Figure 18: Interest bearing debt and D/E ratio

323536 664 664

1,6392,200

0.40.5 0.5

0.4

0.50.6

0.00

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0.80

1.00

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1.40

0

500

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2,500

2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Interest bearing debt D/E

(THBm) (x)

Source: Company data, RHB As at end of 2014, BWG’s debt to equity (D/E) ratio stood at 0.5x. We expect the D/E ratio to increase to 0.5x in 2016 due to debt financing of the two waste power plants projects. Note that the investment cost for the two waste power plant projects is estimated to be around THB1.4bn (company’s portion). The company plans to finance the projects through debt financing and internal cash flow. However, we believe this is still at a manageable level as it is below 1.0x while interest coverage ratio is estimated to be at 8.3x in 2017.

♦ Core earnings estimated to surge 27.8% YoY for 2016F and 56.7% YoY for 2017F

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 12

Risks

Weak economy. Approximately 70% of BWG’s customers are industrial manufacturers while the rest of 30% are manufacturers located outside the industrial estate. Hence, an economic slowdown and a weaker consumer confidence could cause BWG’s customers to lower their production and impact BWG’s performance.

Limited landfill space. Currently, the company has 250rai of landfill space with a total capacity of around 4.0m tonnes. Given that manufacturers in Thailand produce 50m tonnes per year of waste, there is a risk that the company will run out of its landfill space in the future. However, the company is planning to expand its RDF project, which will significantly reduce the amount of waste going into the landfill.

Legal risk. If hazardous and non-hazardous waste is not properly disposed of during operations, the environment of the area surrounding the sites could be affected, which in turn could lead to legal issues for the company.

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 13

Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17FTotal turnover 1,333 1,504 1,690 1,988 2,695 Cost of sales (896) (982) (1,027) (1,170) (1,406) Gross profit 437 522 662 818 1,289 Gen & admin expenses (130) (141) Selling expenses (44) (53) Other operating costs (39) (46) (253) (284) (332) Operating profit 223 283 409 534 958 Operating EBITDA 432 534 665 827 1,373 Depreciation of fixed assets (208) (251) (256) (292) (415) Operating EBIT 223 283 409 534 958 Other recurring income 18 14 15 17 17 Interest expense (26) (36) (34) (40) (115) Pre-tax profit 216 261 391 512 860 Taxation (32) (35) (66) (92) (92) Minority interests (20) (24) (30) (65) (204) Profit after tax & minorities 163 203 294 355 564 Reported net profit 163 203 294 355 564 Recurring net profit 163 203 294 355 564 Source: Company data, RHB

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17FOperating profit 223 283 409 534 958 Depreciation & amortisation 208 251 256 292 415 Change in working capital (18) (82) (30) (58) (157) Other operating cash flow 48 61 23 26 29 Operating cash flow 461 513 658 795 1,245 Interest paid (26) (36) (34) (40) (115) Tax paid (44) (49) (66) (92) (92) Cash flow from operations 392 429 558 663 1,038 Capex (547) (283) (300) (500) (600) Other investing cash flow (24) (10) 2 2 2 Cash flow from investing activities (571) (294) (298) (498) (598) Dividends paid 123 (93) (59) (71) (113) Proceeds from issue of shares 0 102 600 600 - Increase in debt 125 197 - 975 561 Other financing cash flow (79) (111) - - - Cash flow from financing activities 170 95 541 1,504 448 Cash at beginning of period 264 253 484 1,285 2,953 Total cash generated (10) 230 800 1,669 889 Implied cash at end of period 254 484 1,284 2,953 3,842 Source: Company data, RHB

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 14

Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17FTotal cash and equivalents 253 484 1,285 2,953 3,842 Accounts receivable 373 442 490 577 782 Other current assets 20 28 28 28 28 Total current assets 647 954 1,802 3,558 4,651 Total investments 120 116 116 116 116 Tangible fixed assets 1,711 1,756 1,800 2,008 2,193 Total non-current assets 1,831 1,872 1,916 2,124 2,309 Total assets 2,478 2,826 3,719 5,682 6,960 Short-term debt 282 346 346 346 346 Accounts payable 202 180 188 214 257 Other current liabilities 42 49 49 49 49 Total current liabilities 526 575 583 610 653 Total long-term debt 254 317 317 1,292 1,853 Other liabilities 47 51 70 84 103 Total non-current liabilities 301 368 387 1,376 1,956 Total liabilities 827 943 971 1,985 2,609 Share capital 714 800 900 1,000 1,000 Retained earnings reserve 476 591 823 1,107 1,558 Other reserves 274 291 794 1,294 1,294 Shareholders' equity 1,464 1,682 2,517 3,401 3,852 Minority interests 187 201 231 296 500 Total equity 1,652 1,883 2,748 3,696 4,352 Total liabilities & equity 2,478 2,826 3,719 5,682 6,960 Source: Company data, RHB

Key Ratios (THB) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17FRevenue growth (%) 26.1 12.9 12.3 17.7 35.5Operating profit growth (%) 72.9 26.7 44.5 30.7 79.3Net profit growth (%) 110.5 24.3 45.0 20.5 59.0EPS growth (%) 106.6 11.1 28.9 8.5 59.0BVPS growth (%) 14.9 2.6 33.1 21.6 13.3Operating margin (%) 16.8 18.8 24.2 26.9 35.5Net profit margin (%) 12.2 13.5 17.4 17.8 20.9Return on average assets (%) 7.5 7.7 9.0 7.5 8.9Return on average equity (%) 11.9 12.9 14.0 12.0 15.6Net debt to equity (%) 17.1 9.6 (22.6) (35.6) (37.7)DPS 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03Recurrent cash flow per share 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.26 Source: Company data, RHB

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 15

SWOT Analysis

• The largest industrial waste management company in Thailand

• Earnings may jump significantly in 2017 from the upcoming 2 waste power plant projects

• Legal issues brought up by the community surrounding its site

• Diversifying into industrial estate business

• Limited landfill space • The Government’s inability to enforce regulations

-60%

-30%

0%

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120%

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Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)

0%

2%

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7%

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11%

14%

16%

18%

0.0

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4.0

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13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

Company Profile Better World Green provides non-hazardous and hazardous industrial waste management services.

Better World Green (BWG TB) 23 November 2015

See important disclosures at the end of this report 16

Recommendation Chart

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Nov-10 Feb-12 May-13 Sep-14

Price Close

na

3.10

3.50

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-11-18 Buy 3.50 0.62

2013-06-19 Buy 3.10 0.54 Source : RHB, Bloomberg

17

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Investment Research Disclaimers RHB has issued this report for information purposes only. This report is intended for circulation amongst RHB and its affiliates’ clients generally or such persons as may be deemed eligible by RHB to receive this report and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. 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18

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19

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20

affiliation above. Pursuant to the Capital Market Law (Law Number 8 Year 1995) and the supporting regulations thereof, what constitutes as affiliated parties are as follows: 1. Familial relationship due to marriage or blood up to the second degree, both horizontally or vertically;

2. Affiliation between parties to the employees, Directors or Commissioners of the parties concerned;

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21

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2015

Excellent ADVANC CPN GRAMMY KBANK MCOT PS RATCH SCB THCOM WACOAL BAFS DRT HANA KCE MINT PSL ROBINS SCC TISCO BCP DTAC HMPRO KKP MONO PTT SAMART SE-ED TKT BIGC DTC INTUCH KTB NKI PTTEP SAMTEL SIM TMB BTS EASTW IRPC LHBANK PHOL PTTGC SAT SNC TOP CK EGCO IVL LPN PPS QTC SC SPALI VGI

Very Good AAV BBL COL HEMRAJ MC PG SCG SST THIP TPC TWS ACAP BDMS CPF HOTPOT MEGA PJW SEAFCO STA THRE TPCORP UAC AGE BECL CPI HYDRO MFEC PM SFP STEC THREL TRC UT AHC BKI CSL ICC NBC PPP SIAM SVI TICON TRU UV AKP BLA DCC ICHI NCH PR SINGER SWC TIP TRUE VNT AMATA BMCL DELTA INET NINE PRANDA SIS SYMC TIPCO TSC WAVE ANAN BOL DEMCO IRC NSI PREB SITHAI SYNTEC TK TSTE WINNER AOT BROOK ECF KSL NTV PT SMK TASCO TKS TSTH YUASA APCS BWG EE KTC OCC PTG SMPC TBSP TMI TTA ZMICO ARIP CENTEL ERW LANNA OGC Q-CON SMT TCAP TMILL TTCL ASIMAR CFRESH GBX LH OISHI QH SNP TF TMT TTW ASK CHO GC LOXLEY OTO RS SPI TGCI TNDT TU ASP CIMBT GFPT LRH PAP S&J SSF THAI TNITY TVD BANPU CM GLOBAL MACO PDI SABINA SSI THANA TNL TVO BAY CNT GUNKUL MBK PE SAMCO SSSC THANI TOG TWFP* * On Oct 1,2015 TWFP TWFP merged with TWS resulting in a new company, TWPC

Good 2S AS CBG DNA GCAP ITD LHK MK PATO PTL SEAOIL STPI AEC ASIA CGD EARTH GENCO JSP LIT MODERN PB PYLON SIRI SUC AEONTS AUCT CHG EASON GL JTS LIVE MOONG PCA QLT SKR SUSCO AF AYUD CHOW ECL GLAND JUBILE LST MPG PCSGH RCL SMG SUTHA AH BA CI EFORL GLOW KASET M MSC PDG RICHY SOLAR SYNTEC AIRA BEAUTY CITY ESSO GOLD KBS MAJOR MTI PF RML SORKON TAE AIT BEC CKP FE GYT KCAR MAKRO MTLS PICO RPC SPA TAKUNI AJ BFIT CNS FIRE HTC KGI MATCH NC PL S SPC TCC AKR BH CPALL FOCUS HTECH KKC MATI NOK PLANB SALEE SPCG TCCC AMANAH BIG CPL FORTH IEC KTIS MBKET NUSA PLAT SAPPE SPPT TCJ AMARIN BJC CSC FPI IFEC KWC M-CHAI NWR PPM SAWAD SPVI TEAM AP BJCHI CSP FSMART IFS KYE MFC NYT PRG SCCC SRICHA TFD APCO BKD CSS FSS IHL L&E MILL OCEAN PRIN SCN SSC TFI AQUA BTNC CTW FVC IRCP LALIN MJD PACE PSTC SCP STANLY TIC TIW TPIPL UPF VPO TLUXE TRT UPOIC WHA TMC TSE UREKA WIN TMD TSR UWC XO TOPP UMI VIBHA TPCH UP VIH

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการสํารวจของสมาคมสง่เสริมสถาบนักรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเร่ืองการกํากบัดแูลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นีเ้ป็นการ

ดําเนินการตามนโยบายของสํานกังานคณะกรรมการกํากบัหลกัทรัพย์และตลาดหลกัทรัพย์ โดยการสํารวจของ IOD เป็นการสํารวจและประเมินจากข้อมลูของบรษัทจด

ทะเบียนในตลาดหลกัทรัพย์แหง่ประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยตอ่สาธารณะและเป็นข้อมลูที่ผู้ลงทนุทัว่ไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดงันัน้ผลสํารวจ

ดงักลา่วจงึเป็นการนําเสนอในมมุมองของบคุคลภายนอกโดยไมไ่ด้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบตัิและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมลูภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการสาํรวจดงักลา่ว เป็นผลการสํารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกํากบัดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเทา่นัน้ ดงันัน้ผลการสํารวจจงึอาจ

เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลงัวนัดงักลา่ว ทัง้นีบ้ริษัทหลกัทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี จํากดั (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยนัหรือรับรองถึงความถกูต้องของผลการสํารวจดงักลา่วแตอ่ยา่งใด

Sustainability Development by Industry ( 34 record(s) found)

Symbol Company Name CG

Score 1/

AGM Level 2/

Anti-corruption Progress Indicator 3/ Sector

AI ASIAN INSULATORS PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 4 No progress SET - ENERG

AKR EKARAT ENGINEERING PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 No progress SET - ENERG

BAFS BANGKOK AVIATION FUEL SERVICES PCL. 5 5 4 SET - ENERG BANPU BANPU PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 4 5 4 SET - ENERG

BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 5 5 4 SET - ENERG

CKP CK POWER PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 2 SET - ENERG DEMCO DEMCO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 2 SET - ENERG

EARTH ENERGY EARTH PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 4 No progress SET - ENERG

EASTW EASTERN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT PCL. 4 5 4 SET - ENERG

EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 5 5 4 SET - ENERG

ESSO ESSO (THAILAND) PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 1 SET - ENERG

GLOW GLOW ENERGY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 2 SET - ENERG

GPSC GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - - - SET - ENERG

GUNKUL GUNKUL ENGINEERING PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 4 5 Partially progress SET - ENERG

IFEC INTER FAR EAST ENGINEERING PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 4 2 SET - ENERG

IRPC IRPC PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 5 4 4 SET - ENERG

LANNA THE LANNA RESOURCES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 4 5 4 SET - ENERG

MDX M.D.X. PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 3 No progress SET - ENERG PTG PTG ENERGY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 4 SET - ENERG PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 5 5 4 SET - ENERG

PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 5 5 4 SET - ENERG

RATCH RATCHABURI ELECTRICITY GENERATING HOLDING PUBLIC CO.,LTD. 4 5 2 SET - ENERG

RPC RPCG PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 4 2 SET - ENERG

SCG SAHACOGEN (CHONBURI) PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 5 2 SET - ENERG

SCN SCAN INTER PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 3 - SET - ENERG

SGP SIAMGAS AND PETROCHEMICALS PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 3 2 SET - ENERG

SOLAR SOLARTRON PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 No progress SET - ENERG SPCG SPCG PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 3 4 2 SET - ENERG

SUPER SUPERBLOCK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - - 2 SET - ENERG SUSCO SUSCO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 5 2 SET - ENERG

TAE THAI AGRO ENERGY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 5 2 SET - ENERG

TCC THAI CAPITAL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED - 4 No progress SET - ENERG

TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 5 4 4 SET - ENERG TTW TTW PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED 4 5 2 SET - ENERG

1 CG Score 2014 from Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) 2 AGM Level 2015 from Thai Investors Association 3 Anti-corruption Progress Indicator 2014 from Thaipat Institute (as of July 27, 2015) : Comprises level 1 to 5 as follows Level 1: Committed Level 2: Declared Level 3: Established Level 4: Certified Level 5:

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