RDEIR/SDEIS Traffic Forecasting

Key Assumptions Update presented to the

Technical Advisory Committee

August 21, 2013

Traffic Forecasting Assumptions

• RDEIR/SDEIS Planning Horizon Year

• Socio-Economic Inputs

• No Build Definition

• Multimodal Assumptions

• Goods Movement Assumptions

(Today’s Focus)

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Outline of Presentation

• Definition of Terms

• Overview of I-710 Modeling Assumptions

• Types of Truck Trips in the I-710 Traffic

Forecasting

• Key assumptions and what has changed

since previous DEIR forecasts

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What is a TEU?

• Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU):

– Measure of ports containerized cargo

volume

• One twenty-foot container = 1 TEU

• One forty-foot container = 2 TEUs

• 1.8 TEUs per container

– 80% of the containers are 40 feet in length

and 20% are 20 feet in length

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Marine Containers: 20 foot and 40 foot

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What is a Lift?

• Railyard demand and capacity are

measured in “Lifts” – counts the number of times a container or trailer is

lifted and placed onto or off of a railcar

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Domestic and Marine Containers

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Truck Bobtail and Chassis

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Elements of Goods Movement:

Port Primary Container Trips

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Near-Dock (< 5 miles)

and Off-Dock Railyards

Warehouse, Transload Facility,

or other destination

On-Dock

Rail*

(no truck

trips)

2035 Forecast:

110,000 Daily Truck Trips

*Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) - the movement of “intact”

marine containers by rail

What is Transloading?

• Transloading

– Direct transfer of products from 40-foot marine containers to 53-

foot domestic containers or wheeled trailers

• Cross-docking

– transfer occurs within 24 hours of the marine container’s arrival at

the transload center

– Cargo in three 40-foot high-cubed marine containers can fit into

two 53-foot domestic containers or wheeled trailers

• Inland Point Intermodal (IPI)

– movement of “intact” marine containers by rail without any

transloading of the cargo

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Elements of Goods Movement:

Transload Truck Trips

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Off-dock Railyard

Transload Facility

Warehouse or Distribution Center

Port Primary Truck Trips:

2035 Forecast:

17,000 Daily Truck Trips

Elements of Goods Movement:

Domestic Intermodal Truck Trips (Not Port-Related)

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Intermodal Railyard

(Off-Dock)

Warehouse,

manufacturing,

etc.

2035 Forecast:

14,000 Daily Study Area

Truck Trips

Elements of Goods Movement:

Domestic Non-Intermodal Truck Trips (Not Port-Related)

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Warehouse,

manufacturing,

retail, etc.

Warehouse,

manufacturing,

retail, etc.

2035 Forecast:

172,000 Daily Truck Trips

(I-710 Study Area)

I-710 RDEIR Goods Movement

Assumptions for: – Port cargo volume

– Rail/truck mode shares

– Inclusion of SCIG & ICTF railyards in

No Build and Build alternatives

– Activity by intermodal yards

– TSM/TDM/ITS for Goods Movement

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Current I-710 Modeling Assumptions

• Lower Port container forecast for 2035

• Better understanding of goods movement travel

markets (imports, exports, empties, transloading, rail

and truck mode shares)

• Separate estimates of components of cargo

movement that generate truck trips

• Current and future locations of warehouses and

transload facilities

• SCIG and ICTF improvements

• Revised projections of intermodal railyard demand

and capacity

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Types of Truck Trips in the I-710

Traffic Forecasts

• Container Truck Trips

– Port Primary Truck Trips (origin or destination at the ports,

includes trips to/from near and off-dock railyards, transload

facilities and other warehouses or distribution centers)

– Port Secondary Transload Truck Trips*

(from warehouses to both railyards and other warehouses)

– Domestic Intermodal Trips* (to/from railyards)

– Domestic Non-Intermodal Trips*

• Non-Container Truck Trips

– Port Non-Container Truck Trips* (e.g., car carriers, bulk

products, specialized cargo)

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* Not separately forecast in previous I-710 DEIR model

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Base Year (2012)

No Project (2035)

Build Alternatives

(2035)

Prior I-710 DEIR

(2035)

14.1 41.4 41.4 43.2

Same assumptions for I-710 and Gateway Cities COG Strategic Transportation

Plan (STP) traffic studies

Ports Container Cargo Assumptions

Annual TEUs* (millions)

* TEU = Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit of Cargo

Ports Primary Daily Truck Trips

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Container Truck Trips (2-way)

Total Truck Trips (2-way)

Base Year (2012)

No Project (2035)

Build Alternatives

(2035)

Prior I-710 DEIR

(2035)

49,000 110,000 110,000 118,000

Base Year (2012)

No Project (2035)

Build Alternatives

(2035)

Prior I-710 DEIR

(2035)

55,000 116,000 116,000 124,000

Heavy Duty Truck Trips

Heavy Duty Truck Trips per Day

Year 2035

(I-710 Study Area) New Model

Previous

I-710 DEIR

Model

Port Primary Container Related

Bobtail 31,000

Chassis 11,000

Container 62,000

Subtotal Container Related 104,000

Port Non-Container 6,000

Port Primary 110,000 117,000

Secondary Transload 17,000*

78,000 Domestic Intermodal 14,000*

Domestic Non-Intermodal 78,000*

TOTAL 219,000 195,000

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* Not forecast separately in previous I-710 DEIR model

Port Containerized Cargo Volume by Market (Millions of Annual TEUs)

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* Loaded container to and from Southern California market ** Includes transload to rail and transload to truck

Port Cargo By Market 2012

(Base

Year)

Prior I-710

DEIR

2035

Prior I-710

DEIR Ratio

(2035/2012) New 2035

New Ratio

(2035/2012)

Loaded On-Dock 3.2 11.2 3.5 10.8 3.4

Loaded Near and Off-

Dock 1.5 3.5 2.3 3.4 2.2

Loaded True Local * 3.2 Not

separated

Not

separated

4.6 1.4

Loaded Transload ** 2.9 9.3 3.2

True Local+Transload 6.1 16.7 2.7 13.9 2.3

Empties 3.3 11.8 3.5 13.3 4.0

Total 14.1 43.2 3.1 41.4 2.9

Intermodal Rail Yards

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Hobart (BNSF)

LATC (UP)

East LA (UP)

ICTF (UP)

SCIG (BNSF)*

City of Industry (UP)

San Bernardino

(BNSF)

Eastern (Off Map):

* Proposed

On-Dock Yards

North End:

South End:

SCIG/ICTF Assumptions for RDEIR/SDEIS

• SCIG RDEIR certified by POLA Harbor

Commission March 7, 2013 and by LA City

Council on May 8, 2013

• ICTF DEIR for public circulation in 2014

• I-710 RDEIR/SDEIS to include SCIG and

improved ICTF in 2035 No Build and Build

Alternatives

– Sensitivity test will be conducted without SCIG or

ICTF improvements

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Intermodal Rail Yards Assumptions: Demand

Millions of Annual Lifts*

North: LATC, ELA, Hobart South: ICTF, SCIG, On-dock Eastern: COI, SB

* Includes marine containers (Inland Point Intermodal), port transload containers, and

domestic containers

Yards 2012

2035 W/O SCIG

and ICTF

Improvements

2035 W/SCIG

and ICTF

Improvements

Difference

North End 1.6 5.0 3.8 -1.2

South End 2.4 7.7 9.0 +1.3

Eastern 0.7 1.3 1.2 -0.1

Total 4.7 14.0 14.0 0.0

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Intermodal Rail Yards Assumptions: Capacity

* 0.8 Million not needed if SCIG Built

Millions of Annual Lifts

2012 2035 W/SCIG and

ICTF Improvements

North End 2.7 5.2

LATC 0.3 0.9

ELA 0.7 1.3

Hobart 1.7 3.0*

South End 3.6 9.9

ICTF 0.8 1.5

SCIG 0.0 1.5

On-Dock 2.8 6.9

Eastern 0.9 1.7

COI 0.2 1.0

SB 0.7 0.7

Total 7.2 16.8

Warehouse and Transload Locations in

Gateway Cities

25 Warehouses (orange and blue dots) and Transload

Facilities (black dots)

Time of Day Distribution of

Port Containerized Truck Trips

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Base Year

(2012)*

No Project

(2035)

Prior I-710

DEIR

(2035)

Build

Alternatives

(2035)

Day Shift

(8 am to 6 pm)

54% POLA

56% POLB 60% 60% 60%

Second Shift

(6 pm to 3 am)

44% POLA

44% POLB 20% 20% 20%

Hoot Shift

(3 am to 8 am)

2% POLA

0% POLB 20% 20% 20%

*Varies by terminal (rounded)

Next Steps

• Complete traffic forecasting model

validation

• 2035 No Build Traffic Forecast

• Alternative 6C Modified Traffic Forecast

• Alternative 6D Traffic Forecast

• Reassess alternatives

• Present Findings

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