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RESEARCH DESIGN

An Analysis of Indias Foreign Trade in

the Pre-Liberalization, Post Liberalizationand WTO regime

By Research SupervisorXxxx

Head, Dept. of Economics

xyz College xyz CollegeHyderabad Hyderabad

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OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY To analyse the growth rates of Exports and Imports

during the periods Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to1991-92), Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97) andWTO Period (1997-98 to 2005-06) using semi-log

equation method. To examine the relationship between GDP and

Exports using simple regression.

To examine the relationship between GDP andImports using simple regression.

To see whether the difference in growth rates inexports and imports is statistically significant overthe three sub periods using dummy variablemethodology.

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HYPOTHESES

H0: Indias Exports exhibit growth withpassing of time.

H0: Indias Imports exhibit growth withpassing of time.

H0:GDP growth influences Exportgrowth.

H0:GDP growth influences Importgrowth.

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METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY:

PLACE OF STUDY:The place of study is India.TIME PERIOD OF STUDY:The period of study spans 1987-88 to 2005-06.

Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92) Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97) WTO Period (1997-98 to 2005-06)DATA :The study uses secondary data.SOURCES:

Finance India and websites of RBI, DGFT, World Bank,WTO, CII, FAPCCI and Ministry of Commerce andDirectorate General of Commercial Intelligence andStatistics (DGCIS).

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DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUESGrowth Rate of Variables: To study the growth rates in various economic

aggregates such as exports, imports, the semi-logarithmic equation is used.

Causality Relationship: To study the relationship involving GDP, Exports and

Imports simple regression is used.

Changes in parameters over time:

To study the changes in the parameters over time, i.e.,to see whether the difference in growth rates in exportsand imports is statistically significant over two subperiods, dummy variable methodology is used.

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LIM

ITATIONS OF THE STUDY: The data pertaining to GDP, Exports and

Imports are taken at current prices.

The growth trends the data shows may ormay not reflect real growth as inflatedprices may exaggerate growth figures. Asevery data is taken at current prices, it is

assumed that price effect is nullified.

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PLAN OF THE STUDY: Chapter I: World Trade & Indias Foreign Trade

Importance of Foreign Trade Performance of World Trade Performance of Indias Trade

Indias Share in World Trade Chapter-II: Research Methodology

Literature Survey Problem Statement Objectives of Study H

ypothesis Research Methodology Plan of the Study

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PLAN OF THE STUDY:

Chapter -III:

Analysis the growth rates of Exports and

Imports Chapter -IV: Relationship between GDP

and exports

Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92)

Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97)

WTO Period (1997-98 to 2005-06)

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PLAN OF THE STUDY:

Chapter -V: Relationship between GDP andImports

Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92)

Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97)

WTO Period(1997-98 to 2005-06)

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PLAN OF THE STUDY: Chapter -VI:

Export and Import growth during thethree periods-Identification of underlying

reasons

Chapter -VII:

Conclusions and Recommendations

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THANK YOU