raymond james conference march 2014 final

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Brian L. Cantrell Chief Financial Officer Raymond James 35 th Annual Institutional Investors Conference March 5, 2014

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Page 1: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Brian L. CantrellChief Financial Officer

Raymond James 35th Annual Institutional Investors ConferenceMarch 5, 2014

Page 2: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

2

This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information that arebased on the beliefs of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. and Alliance Holdings GP,L.P. (the “Partnerships”) and those of their respective general partners (the“General Partners”), as well as assumptions made by and information currentlyavailable to them. When used in this presentation, words such as “anticipate,”“project,” “expect,” “plan,” “goal,” “forecast,” “intend,” “could,” “believe,” “may,”and similar expressions and statements regarding the plans and objectives of thePartnerships for future operations, are intended to identify forward-lookingstatements.

Although the Partnerships and their General Partners believe that such expectationsreflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable at the time suchstatements are made, neither the Partnerships nor the General Partners can giveassurances that such expectations will prove to be correct. Such statements aresubject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If one or more of theserisks or uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect,actual results may vary materially from those the Partnerships anticipated,estimated, projected or expected.

The Partnerships have no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events orotherwise.

Forward-Looking Statements

Page 3: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Alliance Partnership Profiles

NASDAQ Symbol: ARLP AHGP

Unit Price: $85.29 $61.19

LTM/YTD Unit Price Increase: 39.1%/10.8% 17.8%/4.4%

Annualized Distribution: $4.79 $3.31

Distribution Yield: 5.6% 5.4%

Debt/EBITDA (ttm): 1.27x -

Mkt Cap/Ent Value: $3.15B/$3.93B $3.66B/$3.66B• Ownership Interests in ARLP

1.98% G.P. Interest

100% of Incentive Distribution Rights

15.5 mm common units of ARLP representing approximately 41.9% of the ARLP common units outstanding

• First and largest publicly-traded master limited partnership involved in the production and marketing of coal

• 3rd largest eastern coal producer with 38.8 Million tons produced in 2013

• 1.1 billion tons of reserves at December 31, 2013

Asset Profile:

Market data as of February 27, 2014 NASDAQ close

3

Page 4: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Alliance SnapshotCurrent Mining Operations

1. Pattiki Complex

2. River View Complex

3. Dotiki Complex

4. Warrior Complex

5. Hopkins Complex

6. Gibson Complex

7. Sebree Mining Complex

8. MC Mining Complex

9. Mettiki Complex

10. Tunnel Ridge Complex

Mine Under Construction

11. Gibson South Project

Mine Development/Reserve Investment

12. Investment in White Oak Resources

Mine Development Projects

13. Sebree Reserve Project

14. Penn Ridge Project

Transfer Terminal

Mt. Vernon Transfer Terminal

Illinois Basin Central Appalachia Northern Appalachia

Diversified producer and marketer of coal to major U.S. utilities and industrial users

4

Page 5: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Alliance Has Consistently Delivered ~Thirteen Years of Record Results & Counting…

5

2014 estimates reflect company guidance provided in January 28, 2014 earnings release.

Page 6: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

AHGP Distribution / Unit

Debt / LTM EBITDA(1)

ARLP Distribution / Unit

6

$2.95 $3.21 $3.63

$4.16 $4.57

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$1.69 $1.90

$2.28

$2.72 $3.10

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Company filingsCompany filings - Distributions paid per unit.

Cash Flow Growth Drives Distributions 23 Consecutive Quarters of Increased Distributions ~

Page 7: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

31-Dec-08 31-Dec-09 31-Dec-10 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13

Inde

x

ARLP AHGP S&P 500 KOL AMZ

Alliance Consistently Performs

Market data s of 2/27/2014

Page 8: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Alliance is Well Positioned for Continued Growth

Page 9: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

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Coal and Natural Gas Will Continue to Dominate U.S. Power Generation and Compete for Market Share

Ele

ctri

city

Gen

erat

ion

Mar

ket

Sh

are

Uti

lity

Coa

l Con

sum

pti

on(m

illi

on t

ons)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Coal Natural Gas Utility Coal ConsumptionEIA – Annual Energy Outlook (2013)

Page 10: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Current Natural Gas Curve Favors Illinois Basin and Northern Appalachian Coal

Henry Hub Natural Gas February 27, 2014 close

Hen

ry H

ub

Pri

ce p

er M

MB

tu

10

ILB and NAPP Coal Competes

Page 11: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

11

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Utilities Exports Other

Total Demand for U.S. Coal to Remain Relatively Stable

EIA – Annual Energy Outlook (2013)

Page 12: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Coal Production (Tons)

Company Estimates , EVA Quarterly Financial Report, EIA Monthly Utility Transaction Data

Illinois Basin and Northern Appalachia Continue to Benefit from Basin Switching….

12

100M

120M

140M

160M

180M

200M

220M

240M

260M

280M

300M

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ILB/NAPP CAPP

Average Cash Cost ($MMBtu)

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NAPP CAPP ILB

Page 13: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

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….ARLP’s Illinois Basin Operations Particularly AttractiveStrategically located

Direct rail – CSX and NS Direct barge – Ohio and Green Rivers Truck and Mt. Vernon transloading facility

Wide range of coal specifications Heat content – low, mid and high BTU products (10,500 to 12,500) Sulfur – 1.5% to 3.0+% Favorable trace elements – chlorine

Contract flexibility Quality mix Volume optionality Multiple sourcing options

Financial stability

Performance history

Page 14: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

2013 ARLP Production38.8 Million Tons

ARLP Reserves – 31 Dec 20131.1 Billion Tons

Illinois Basin79%

Illinois Basin82%

Central Appalachia

5% Central Appalachia

1%

Source: Company filings

Northern Appalachia

16%

Northern Appalachia

17%

Alliance is Focused in Growing Regions

14

Company filings and estimates as of December 31, 2013

Page 15: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Visible Future Growth Pipeline

Page 16: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Development underway

Initial production expected to begin 3Q 2014

Planned production capacity of ~ 5.1 million tons operating five CM units

Source: Company filings

Gibson South – Illinois Basin Organic Growth Project

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Company Estimates

Page 17: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

White Oak Investments

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Provides ARLP with sustainable long-term cash flow growth…

Longwall production expected to begin late 3Q 2014

ARLP investments essentially completed in 2014

ARLP cash flows generated from three sources Minimum royalties from reserve

acquisition and development Throughput payments from

preparation plant and coal handling/surface facilities

Preferred distributions from equity investment

Source: Company filingsCompany Estimates

Page 18: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

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Visible Growth Ahead….Impact of Tunnel Ridge, Gibson South and White Oak

Company filings and projections

Rev

enu

e($

Mil

lion

s)

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2013 2014(e) 2015(e) 2016(e)Tunnel Ridge Gibson South White Oak

Page 19: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Why Alliance?

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The MLP Coal Investment leveraging…. Clear strategy and focus Well positioned in expanding basins Low cost producer Highly contracted sales book with stable prices Solid balance sheet Exceptional track record Visible future production growth Strong distribution growth

Page 20: Raymond James Conference March 2014 FINAL

Coal Keeps the Lights On