raymond james conference march 2014 final
TRANSCRIPT
Brian L. CantrellChief Financial Officer
Raymond James 35th Annual Institutional Investors ConferenceMarch 5, 2014
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information that arebased on the beliefs of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. and Alliance Holdings GP,L.P. (the “Partnerships”) and those of their respective general partners (the“General Partners”), as well as assumptions made by and information currentlyavailable to them. When used in this presentation, words such as “anticipate,”“project,” “expect,” “plan,” “goal,” “forecast,” “intend,” “could,” “believe,” “may,”and similar expressions and statements regarding the plans and objectives of thePartnerships for future operations, are intended to identify forward-lookingstatements.
Although the Partnerships and their General Partners believe that such expectationsreflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable at the time suchstatements are made, neither the Partnerships nor the General Partners can giveassurances that such expectations will prove to be correct. Such statements aresubject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If one or more of theserisks or uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect,actual results may vary materially from those the Partnerships anticipated,estimated, projected or expected.
The Partnerships have no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events orotherwise.
Forward-Looking Statements
Alliance Partnership Profiles
NASDAQ Symbol: ARLP AHGP
Unit Price: $85.29 $61.19
LTM/YTD Unit Price Increase: 39.1%/10.8% 17.8%/4.4%
Annualized Distribution: $4.79 $3.31
Distribution Yield: 5.6% 5.4%
Debt/EBITDA (ttm): 1.27x -
Mkt Cap/Ent Value: $3.15B/$3.93B $3.66B/$3.66B• Ownership Interests in ARLP
1.98% G.P. Interest
100% of Incentive Distribution Rights
15.5 mm common units of ARLP representing approximately 41.9% of the ARLP common units outstanding
• First and largest publicly-traded master limited partnership involved in the production and marketing of coal
• 3rd largest eastern coal producer with 38.8 Million tons produced in 2013
• 1.1 billion tons of reserves at December 31, 2013
Asset Profile:
Market data as of February 27, 2014 NASDAQ close
3
Alliance SnapshotCurrent Mining Operations
1. Pattiki Complex
2. River View Complex
3. Dotiki Complex
4. Warrior Complex
5. Hopkins Complex
6. Gibson Complex
7. Sebree Mining Complex
8. MC Mining Complex
9. Mettiki Complex
10. Tunnel Ridge Complex
Mine Under Construction
11. Gibson South Project
Mine Development/Reserve Investment
12. Investment in White Oak Resources
Mine Development Projects
13. Sebree Reserve Project
14. Penn Ridge Project
Transfer Terminal
Mt. Vernon Transfer Terminal
Illinois Basin Central Appalachia Northern Appalachia
Diversified producer and marketer of coal to major U.S. utilities and industrial users
4
Alliance Has Consistently Delivered ~Thirteen Years of Record Results & Counting…
5
2014 estimates reflect company guidance provided in January 28, 2014 earnings release.
AHGP Distribution / Unit
Debt / LTM EBITDA(1)
ARLP Distribution / Unit
6
$2.95 $3.21 $3.63
$4.16 $4.57
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$1.69 $1.90
$2.28
$2.72 $3.10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company filingsCompany filings - Distributions paid per unit.
Cash Flow Growth Drives Distributions 23 Consecutive Quarters of Increased Distributions ~
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
31-Dec-08 31-Dec-09 31-Dec-10 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13
Inde
x
ARLP AHGP S&P 500 KOL AMZ
Alliance Consistently Performs
Market data s of 2/27/2014
Alliance is Well Positioned for Continued Growth
9
Coal and Natural Gas Will Continue to Dominate U.S. Power Generation and Compete for Market Share
Ele
ctri
city
Gen
erat
ion
Mar
ket
Sh
are
Uti
lity
Coa
l Con
sum
pti
on(m
illi
on t
ons)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Coal Natural Gas Utility Coal ConsumptionEIA – Annual Energy Outlook (2013)
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Current Natural Gas Curve Favors Illinois Basin and Northern Appalachian Coal
Henry Hub Natural Gas February 27, 2014 close
Hen
ry H
ub
Pri
ce p
er M
MB
tu
10
ILB and NAPP Coal Competes
11
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Utilities Exports Other
Total Demand for U.S. Coal to Remain Relatively Stable
EIA – Annual Energy Outlook (2013)
Coal Production (Tons)
Company Estimates , EVA Quarterly Financial Report, EIA Monthly Utility Transaction Data
Illinois Basin and Northern Appalachia Continue to Benefit from Basin Switching….
12
100M
120M
140M
160M
180M
200M
220M
240M
260M
280M
300M
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ILB/NAPP CAPP
Average Cash Cost ($MMBtu)
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NAPP CAPP ILB
13
….ARLP’s Illinois Basin Operations Particularly AttractiveStrategically located
Direct rail – CSX and NS Direct barge – Ohio and Green Rivers Truck and Mt. Vernon transloading facility
Wide range of coal specifications Heat content – low, mid and high BTU products (10,500 to 12,500) Sulfur – 1.5% to 3.0+% Favorable trace elements – chlorine
Contract flexibility Quality mix Volume optionality Multiple sourcing options
Financial stability
Performance history
2013 ARLP Production38.8 Million Tons
ARLP Reserves – 31 Dec 20131.1 Billion Tons
Illinois Basin79%
Illinois Basin82%
Central Appalachia
5% Central Appalachia
1%
Source: Company filings
Northern Appalachia
16%
Northern Appalachia
17%
Alliance is Focused in Growing Regions
14
Company filings and estimates as of December 31, 2013
Visible Future Growth Pipeline
Development underway
Initial production expected to begin 3Q 2014
Planned production capacity of ~ 5.1 million tons operating five CM units
Source: Company filings
Gibson South – Illinois Basin Organic Growth Project
16
Company Estimates
White Oak Investments
17
Provides ARLP with sustainable long-term cash flow growth…
Longwall production expected to begin late 3Q 2014
ARLP investments essentially completed in 2014
ARLP cash flows generated from three sources Minimum royalties from reserve
acquisition and development Throughput payments from
preparation plant and coal handling/surface facilities
Preferred distributions from equity investment
Source: Company filingsCompany Estimates
18
Visible Growth Ahead….Impact of Tunnel Ridge, Gibson South and White Oak
Company filings and projections
Rev
enu
e($
Mil
lion
s)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2013 2014(e) 2015(e) 2016(e)Tunnel Ridge Gibson South White Oak
Why Alliance?
19
The MLP Coal Investment leveraging…. Clear strategy and focus Well positioned in expanding basins Low cost producer Highly contracted sales book with stable prices Solid balance sheet Exceptional track record Visible future production growth Strong distribution growth
Coal Keeps the Lights On