ravaged by sars: the case of hong kong. cumulative number of sars cases in hong kong (as of sept 11,...
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Ravaged by SARS:
The Case of Hong Kong
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Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong
(as of Sept 11, 2003)
Infected Dead
Overall 1,755 299
Medical Staff 386 6
Community 1,369 293
Of which: Amoy Gardens 321 >40
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases (up to June 11, 2003)
Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
0
20
40
60
80
100
3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3
Date
Persons
Community
Amoy Gardens
Medical Staff
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Medical Staff (up to June 11, 2003)
Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3
Date
Persons
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Community Excl. Amoy Gardens (up to June 11,
2003)
Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
0
10
20
30
40
3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3
Date
Persons
Suspension of classes
Quarantine – contacts of confirmed patients
Quarantine – contacts of suspected patients
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Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Amoy Gardens (up to June 11, 2003)
Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3
Date
Persons
Residents of Block E were being moved into holiday villages
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Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as of Sept 11, 2003)
All deaths
With chronic disease history
No chronic disease history
Overall 299 201 98
Male 168 108 60
Female 129 91 38
Unknown 2 2 0
Aged 0-64 108 43 65
Aged 65+ 191 158 33
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Total Mortality Rate due to SARS (up to June 11, 2003)
Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
16.6%
17.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
3/11 3/25 4/8 4/22 5/6 5/20 6/3Date
Mor
tali
ty R
ate
(%)
Mortality Rate among All cases
Mortality Rate among Discharged & Deaths
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Total Mortality Rate due to SARS by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003)
Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong
70.3
52.5
25.3
13.0
10.0
1.6
0.5
0.0
0 20 40 60 80
0-14
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
>74
Age
Gro
ups
Age specific Mortality Rate (%)
299 deaths as at 1pm, Sept 1
Assumption: the age distribution of all cases is the same as that reported on Jun 6
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Case Fatality Rate by Gender (as on Sept 1, 2003)
Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.
14.113.2
21.9
9.47.7
3.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Females Males
(%)
All deathsWith Chronic Disease history
No Chronic Disease history
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Case Fatality Rate by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003)
Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.
61.9
3.3
17.2
4.19.4
51.2
0.8
10.77.8
0
20
40
60
80
0-44 45-64 >64
Age Groups
(%)
All deathsWith Chronic Disease historyNo Chronic Disease history
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SARS came at a bad time
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Real GDP Growth -5.0 3.4 10.2 0.6 2.3
Nominal GDP Growth -4.8 -2.6 3.4 -0.7 -0.6
Consumer Price Deflation
2.9 -4.0 -3.8 -1.6 -3.0
Unemployment Rate 5.9 6.3 4.4 6.2 7.2
Property Price Index (Domestic)
117.1 100.0 89.6 78.7 69.8
Budget Deficit (HK$bn) -23.2 10.0 -7.8 -63.3 -61.7
Fiscal Reserves (HK$bn) 434.3 444.3 430.6 372.5 311.4
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Economic Fallout
SARS is an exogenous NEGATIVE demand shock to the aggregate demand.
Exports of travel services
Imports of travel services
Investment Consumption Spending
Exports of goods Imports of goods
Output Prices
Unemployment Budget deficit
??
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Losses from SARS Large
Initial EstimatesHong Kong Federation of Restaurant and Related Trades
Mid April 50 restaurants closed temporarily
Hong Kong Retail Management Association
Early April Retail sales fell by 50%
Cathay Pacific Airways
Mid April Estimated loss per day is US$3mn; Cancellation of flights rose from 10% in late-March to over 40%
Cinema Association
Mid April Revenue in March dropped by 47%
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2002 2003
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Private consumption expenditure -0.1 -2.2 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2
Government consumption expenditure
2.3 3.0 3.5 0.8 1.3 0.6
Gross domestic fixed capital formation
-11.8 -0.2 -4.3 -0.7 3.5 -5.3
Exports of goods -2.4 5.9 11.5 18.4 19.1 14.3
Imports of goods -4.0 6.0 10.8 18.2 18.8 10.9
Exports of services 6.0 7.7 13.9 18.1 12.6 -14.7
Imports of services -0.7 -3.8 2.0 3.4 -3.9 -19.6
Gross Domestic Product -0.6 0.8 3.4 5.1 4.5 -0.5
GDP at current market prices ($bn) 298 306 325 331 298 288
GDP at 2000 market prices ($bn) 310 318 343 353 324 316
Gross Domestic Product (Year-on-year
percentage changes)
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Retail Sales
Year 2003
Total Retail Sales ValueUnit Price
IndexVolume Index
HK$ MnYear-on-year
% changeYear-on-year
% changeYear-on-year
% change
Jan 17,484 9.87 -1.71 11.76
Feb 12,680 -12.56 -1.46 -11.23
Mar 14,171 -6.06 -2.43 -3.73
Apr 12,723 -15.15 -3.28 -12.24
May 13,780 -11.13 -3.95 -7.45
Jun 13,600 -6.46 -3.31 -3.31
Jul 14,602 -2.69 -2.21 -0.49
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Unemployment and Under-employment
3-Month Average
Ending On(Year 2003)
Unemployment Under-employment
Person (‘000)
Rate (S.A)
Person (‘000)
Rate
Jan 245.6 7.2 107.8 3.1
Feb 255.9 7.4 101.2 2.9
Mar 259.8 7.5 100.7 2.9
Apr 273.7 7.8 112.7 3.2
May 287.3 8.3 135.0 3.8
Jun 300.0 8.6 151.0 4.3
Jul 309.0 8.7 149.0 4.2
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Composite Consumer Price Index
Year 2003 IndexYear-on-year
% change
Jan 93.7 -1.7
Feb 93.5 -2.1
Mar 93.7 -2.1
Apr 93.7 -1.8
May 92.7 -2.5
Jun 92.0 -3.1
Jul 91.1 -4.0
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Cross-Border Truck Traffic (Mar 1, 2003 – Sept 8,
2003)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1
Date
Number of Truck
Inbound
Outbound
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Number of Air Passenger Arrival and Departure (Mar 1, 2003 – Jun 30, 2003)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1
Date
Persons
Total Arrival
Total Departure
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Aircraft Movement at the Hong Kong Airport (Mar 1, 2003 – Aug 31, 2003)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1
Date
Number of Aircraft
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Hong Kong Visitor Arrivals (2002 August – 2003
July)
1,347 1,292
725
427494
1,408
1,5461,669
1,570
1,5851,501
1,370
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03
Date
Persons ('000)
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Hotel Occupancy Rate (2003 January – 2003
July)
71
34
18
22
798182
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03
Date
%
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Stock Price of Cathay Pacific (Mar 1, 2001 – Jul 31, 2003)
5
7
9
11
13
15
1/3/
01
5/7/
01
8/11
/01
3/14
/02
7/18
/02
11/2
1/02
3/27
/03
7/31
/03
Date
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Risk Premium of Hong Kong Dollar (Mar 1, 2002 – Jul 31, 2003)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
3/1/
02
5/1/
02
7/1/
02
9/1/
02
11/1
/02
1/1/
03
3/1/
03
5/1/
03
7/1/
03
Date
Pips
Note: Risk Premium = (1-Year Forward – Spot) 10,000Source: Datastream.
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Stock Market Indices
IndexMar 12-Mar 31
Mar 12-Apr
30
Mar 12-May 30
Mar 12-Jun
30
Mar 12-Jul 31
Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index
-2.71% -1.78% 6.90% 7.91% 14.20%
Hong Kong: HS Finance
-2.63% 0.95% 9.51% 8.91% 12.90%
Hong Kong: HS Utility
0.15% -1.27% 2.15% 2.51% 2.93%
Hong Kong: HS Property
-4.68% -6.47% 2.50% 2.50% 14.88%
Hong Kong: HS Commercial and Industrial
-2.77% -3.31% 6.46% 9.69% 17.95%
China: Shanghai A 2.45% 3.25% 7.02% 0.90% 0.26%
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HK$ 11.8b Relief Measures
Salaries tax rebate: 2.3b
Concessions on rents, rates, water and
other charges for a quarter
Temporary jobs and temporary training
for unemployed workers: 430m
Loan guarantee fund: 3.5b
Disease control: 1.5b
Revival: 1b
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Other Relief Packages
On April 25, the Airport Authority offered a relief package worth HK$ 363m to airlines, retailers, caterers and franchisees badly hurt by SARS:
$100m worth of reductions for some
charges
$263m worth of interest free deferred
payments
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Contingent Measures
On May 25, less than 48 hours after the WHO lifted its travel advisory on Hong Kong, the Airport Authority announced a multi-million dollar revitalization package:
Airlines reinstating cancelled flights would enjoy a discount on landing charge, depending on load factor:
Load Factor Discount on landing charge
Below 20% 50%
21%-40% 25%
41%-60% 10%
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Contingent Measures
For existing flights, more passengers carried (i.e. higher load factor) would result in higher discount in landing charge, also up to 50%.
For example, a 10-percentage point increase in load factor will result in 10% discount on landing charge.
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Main Lessons
Information dissemination
Infection control measures
Environmental hygiene
Cross-border cooperation