quek ser leang global economics & markets research email ... · 1.4100). support is at 1.4040...

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FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 1 | Page Quek Ser Leang [email protected] Lee Sue Ann [email protected] Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Tuesday, 09 May 2017 FX Insights Chart Of The Day USD/THB: 34.67 Approaching major 34.83 resistance, longs to take partial profit. We indicated last Friday that we are “anticipating a break above 34.70 for a move to 34.83”. USD hit a high of 34.75 but has since eased off. However, as long as the stop-loss at 34.53 (adjusted from 34.50) is intact, we continue to anticipate a move to 34.83. This is a rather strong resistance and those who are long since the bullish phase started on 28 April (see Chart of the Day update, spot at 34.63) should look to take some partial profit.

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Page 1: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 1 | P a g e

Quek Ser Leang [email protected] Lee Sue Ann [email protected] Global Economics & Markets Research

Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research

Tuesday, 09 May 2017 FX Insights

Chart Of The Day USD/THB: 34.67 Approaching major 34.83 resistance, longs to take partial profit.

We indicated last Friday that we are “anticipating a break above 34.70 for a move to 34.83”. USD hit a high of 34.75 but has

since eased off. However, as long as the stop-loss at 34.53 (adjusted from 34.50) is intact, we continue to anticipate a move to

34.83. This is a rather strong resistance and those who are long since the bullish phase started on 28 April (see Chart of the

Day update, spot at 34.63) should look to take some partial profit.

Page 2: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 2 | P a g e

OVERVIEW

It has generally been a quiet start to the week in markets. US equities closed flat whilst the USD traded higher, tracking the jump

in UST yields and the steepening of the UST curve. Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester had said that the Fed needed to be vigilant

against ‘falling behind the curve’ and that she was comfortable with changing balance sheet policy this year. The post-French

Presidential election sell-off in EUR also supported the move higher for USD. In the commodity space, the main point of note is

that both copper and iron ore are weaker following a Chinese trade report that pointed to slower growth than the market had

expected. In currency markets the US dollar has firmed against most counterparts.

Today, we have the NFIB small business optimism survey for April, March JOLTS jobs openings data, the final print for the

March wholesale inventories and trade sales data; whilst it will be a busy day for US corporate earnings reporting. We will also

have many senior Fed officials speaking in public forums on Tuesday including Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari (voter

in 2017 FOMC), Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan (voter in 2017 FOMC), Kansas Fed President, Esther George (nonvoter

in 2017 FOMC), St Louis Fed President, James Bullard (non-voter in 2017 FOMC) and Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren

(non-voter in 2017 FOMC).

Latest Flash Note: 05 May 17

ASEAN: Ready For US Fed Balance Sheet Reduction? https://goo.gl/LUq1QG

Page 3: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 3 | P a g e

* Shift in outlook.

* Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-16.

09-May-17 Summary of Views

FX Pairs Spot Outlook Since/ Rate

Target Trailing-Stop Support Resistance

USD/SGD 1.4055 Bullish 05 May 17

1.4005 1.4080

1.3990 1.3945

S1: 1.4025 S2: 1.3990

R1: 1.4080 R2: 1.4140

EUR/SGD 1.5360 Bullish 26 Apr 17

1.5235 1.5500 1.5300

1.5320 1.5280

S1: 1.5320 S2: 1.5260

R1: 1.5410 R2: 1.5480

GBP/SGD 1.8185 Bullish 19 Apr 17

1.7925 1.8500 1.8150

1.8060 1.7980

S1: 1.8140 S2: 1.8060

R1: 1.8245 R2: 1.8300

AUD/SGD 1.0390 Neutral 02 May 17

1.0515 - -

S1: 1.0365 S2: 1.0325

R1: 1.0455 R2: 1.0480

JPY/SGD 1.2420 Neutral 05 May 17

1.2445 - -

S1: 1.2380 S2: 1.2350

R1: 1.2465 R2: 1.2550

USD/MYR 4.3390 Bearish 26 Apr 17

4.3660 4.2750 4.3420

4.3560 4.3660

S1: 4.3100 S2: 4.2750

R1: 4.3450 R2: 4.3560

USD/THB 34.67 Bullish 28 Apr 17

34.63 34.83

34.53 34.50

S1: 34.57 S2: 34.53

R1: 34.75 R2: 34.83

USD/CNH 6.9105 Neutral 11 Apr 17

6.9045 - -

S1: 6.9040 S2: 6.9000

R1: 6.9145 R2: 6.9250

CNH/SGD 0.2035 Bullish 05 May 17

0.2031 0.2038

0.2027 0.2024

S1: 0.2031 S2: 0.2027

R1: 0.2038 R2: 0.2045

EUR/USD 1.0930 Bullish 26 Apr 17

1.0930 1.1050 1.1000

1.0900 1.0850

S1: 1.0900 S2: 1.0870

R1: 1.0950 R2: 1.1025

GBP/USD 1.2945 Neutral 04 May 17

1.2875 - -

S1: 1.2910 S2: 1.2880

R1: 1.2990 R2: 1.3030

AUD/USD 0.7390 Bearish 04 May 17

0.7430 0.7330 0.7370

0.7450 0.7470

S1: 0.7365 S2: 0.7330

R1: 0.7430 R2: 0.7450

NZD/USD 0.6905 Neutral 02 May 17

0.6905 - -

S1: 0.6880 S2: 0.6840

R1: 0.6930 R2: 0.6955

USD/JPY 112.50 Neutral 08 May 17

112.50 - -

S1: 112.45 S2: 111.80

R1: 113.10 R2: 113.50

FX Pairs Ranges for 08-May-17 Performance*

Open High Low Close 1-day 1-week 1-month YTD**

USD/SGD 1.4055 1.4067 1.4027 1.4060 +0.08% +0.65% +0.04% -3.08%

EUR/SGD 1.5447 1.5480 1.5336 1.5352 -0.57% +0.85% +3.15% +1.24%

GBP/SGD 1.8229 1.8244 1.8160 1.8186 -0.23% +1.04% +4.27% +2.14%

AUD/SGD 1.0397 1.0428 1.0362 1.0382 -0.34% -1.21% -1.43% -0.30%

JPY/SGD 1.2428 1.2490 1.2401 1.2409 -0.38% -0.63% -1.99% +0.59%

USD/MYR 4.3360 4.3360 4.3300 4.3350 0% -0.09% -2.21% -3.33%

USD/THB 34.65 34.73 34.57 34.64 -0.05% +0.14% +0.08% -3.21%

USD/CNH 6.9026 6.9100 6.9024 6.9081 +0.07% +0.15% +0.00% -0.95%

EUR/USD 1.0996 1.1022 1.0915 1.0922 -0.66% +0.22% +3.10% +4.50%

GBP/USD 1.2980 1.2990 1.2930 1.2938 -0.35% +0.41% +4.19% +5.43%

AUD/USD 0.7416 0.7425 0.7377 0.7387 -0.37% -1.85% -1.51% +2.86%

NZD/USD 0.6915 0.6945 0.6889 0.6909 -0.15% +0.02% -0.71% -0.07%

USD/JPY 112.97 113.29 112.36 113.24 +0.47% +1.26% +2.08% -3.70%

Page 4: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 4 | P a g e

USD/SGD: 1.4055

USD/SGD traded at a higher range of 1.4027–1.4068 and closed at 1.4041/USD during Asian hours yesterday. This

morning, the SGD NEER is trading at 0.22% above the midpoint. We expect the SGD NEER to trade between the midpoint

and 0.5% above the midpoint, implying a USD/SGD range of 1.4086 – 1.4016 based on current FX levels. Onshore markets

will be closed on Wednesday for the Vesak Day holiday.

Latest Flash Note: 26 Apr 17

Strong Electronics Output Powers March Manufacturing https://goo.gl/gb43Xk

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

USD traded in a range of 1.4027/1.4067 yesterday, close to

our sideway trading range of 1.4025/1.4075. The underlying

momentum has improved somewhat but while extension

higher is likely, a sustained move above the major 1.4080/85

resistance is not expected for now (next resistance at

1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020.

Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. [No change in view, see update from yesterday below]

We just shifted to a bullish USD stance last Friday (see

Chart of Day update on Friday, spot at 1.4005) and there is

no change to the view. The pace of the up-move is more

rapid than expected and the immediate target at 1.4080/85

appears to within reach soon. A move above this level

would shift the focus to 1.4140 as there are no significant

resistances between these two levels. Stop-loss is adjusted

higher to 1.3990 from 1.3945 last Friday.

Page 5: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 5 | P a g e

EUR/SGD: 1.5360

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

The sharp drop from the 1.5480 peak seen early yesterday

morning was unexpected. While the recent strong upward

momentum has been dented, the decline appears to be over-

extended and further sustained weakness is not expected for

today. This pair is more likely to trade sideways at these

lower levels, likely within a 1.5320/1.5410 range.

Bullish: Diminished odds for further EUR strength.

After the strong rally late last week, the ‘bearish outside bar’

registered yesterday came as a surprise. While the bullish

phase that started on 26 Apr (spot at 1.5235) is still intact,

the sharp drop yesterday has diminished the odds for further

EUR strength. The 1.5480 high seen early yesterday is

acting as a formidable resistance now and is expected to cap

any EUR strength for the next few days. On the downside, a

break of the stop-loss at 1.5320 would indicate that the

bullish phase has ended and the start of sideway

consolidation phase.

*Took partial profit at 1.5300.

GBP/SGD: 1.8185

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

The strong 1.8290 resistance was unchallenged as GBP

eased off quickly after hitting a high of 1.8248. A temporary

top is likely in place and GBP is expected to trade sideways

for today even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower

towards the bottom of the expected 1.8140/1.8230 range.

Bullish: Anticipating bullish extension to 1.8500.

There is not much to add to the Chart of the Day update

from yesterday. The break of the key 1.8150 resistance

bodes well for our current bullish view especially when major

resistances are far apart. We continue to anticipate the

current bullish phase to extend further to 1.8500. Stop-loss is

unchanged at 1.8060 for now.

*Took partial profit at 1.7990.

AUD/SGD: 1.0390

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

In line with expectation, the strong 1.0455 resistance held as

AUD traded mostly sideways yesterday. Indicators are

mostly neutral now which suggest further range trading, likely

not moving much out of the 1.0362/1.0428 range seen

yesterday.

Neutral: AUD trying to form a short-term base. [No change in view, see update from yesterday below]

We indicated that last Friday that “unless AUD can reclaim

1.0455, another attempt towards 1.0325/30 is not ruled out”.

AUD dipped briefly to hit a low of 1.0322 before rebounding

strongly. Despite the robust recovery, it is too early to

expect a sustained rebound even though the price action

over the past few days suggests that this pair is trying to

form a short-term base. All in, AUD has to move and stay

above 1.0455 to indicate that the immediate downward

pressure has eased. Until then, further attempt to move

towards the major 1.0320/30 support is not ruled out but the

odds for such a move have diminished.

JPY/SGD: 1.2420

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

JPY closed on a weak note and there appears to be scope

for further weakness even though a move below last week’s

low near 1.2360 is not expected (minor support at 1.2385).

Resistance is at 1.2445 but only a move above 1.2465

would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has

eased.

Neutral: In a 1.2350/1.2550 range.

The neutral phase that started last Friday is still intact. While

downward momentum is picking up again, a clear break of

the major 1.2350 support seems unlikely for now. That said, a

break below this strong level would indicate that JPY has

moved into a bearish phase again. In the meanwhile, we

continue to hold the view that this pair is trading in

1.2350/1.2550 range.

Page 6: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 6 | P a g e

USD/MYR: 4.3390

USD/MYR is higher this morning around the 4.3390 region. Notably, Malaysia’s debt market enjoyed its first inflows in six

months as global funds bought the nation’s bonds following a stronger MYR and central bank measures to restore confidence in

the local markets. Foreign ownership of Malaysian sovereign and corporate debt climbed 3.8% to MYR 185bn in April from the

previous month, according to data from BNM. Overseas investors had pulled MYR63bn from Malaysian debt in the five months

from November to March.

Latest Flash Note: 26 Apr 17

Ringgit Plays Catch-up; Revising USD/MYR Outlook https://goo.gl/4mXnDa

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Bearish: Diminished odds for extension to 4.2750. [No change in view, see update from yesterday below]

While USD continues to recover, it is not enough to shift the current bearish phase that started on 26 Apr (spot at 4.3660) to

neutral. Only a move back above 4.3560 would indicate that the 4.3100 low seen last week is a short-term base. Until then,

another push lower towards 4.2750 is not ruled out even though the odds for such a move have diminished.

USD/THB: 34.67

Further inflows into Thai assets intraday should keep the THB supported (as it did yesterday where foreign investors purchased

THB0.59bn and THB5.18bn in equities and government debt) though the USD/THB pair is currently trading bid amid a firmer

USD tone.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Bullish: To take partial profit at 34.83.

[See Chart of the Day on page 1]

USD/CNH: 6.9105

China’s April trade data was released on Monday. Exports measured in CNY terms rose 14.3% y/y, down from 22.3% y/y in

March and missing expectations of a 16.8% y/y reading. Imports in CNY terms rose 18.6% y/y, down from 26.3% y/y in March

and missing expectations of a 29.3% y/y print. The trade balance came in at CNY262.3bn, up from CNY164.3bn in March.

April trade data add to the impression of a deceleration in China’s economy heading toward 2H. Export and import growth

slowed, and missed expectations, despite a lower base for comparison. Trade data are volatile, but the latest numbers are

consistent with signs of a slowdown from April business surveys. The April numbers likely mean a slowdown to a more

moderate pace of expansion in exports and imports over the course of the year. Compared to early 2016, when China’s trade

with the rest of the world contracted, the overall picture remains positive. Looking forward, various indicators suggest

moderating export growth in the months ahead.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 6.9145.

As indicated yesterday, the outlook for USD is clearly positive and the current recovery has scope to extend to 6.9145, the high

in April. Based on the rapid pace of the up-move over the past couple of days, a move above this strong resistance would not

be surprising and a daily close above this level would indicate the start of a bullish phase (with an immediate target of 6.9315).

This appears to be a likely scenario if the short-term support at 6.9000 can hold for the next 1 to 2 days.

CNH/SGD: 0.2035

1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Bullish: Immediate target of 0.2038.

CNH retested 0.2037 yesterday and the immediate bullish target at 0.2038 is not met. The bullish phase that started last Friday (spot at 0.2031) is still clearly intact and a break above 0.2038 would shift the focus to 0.2045. Stop-loss is unchanged at

0.2027 for now.

Page 7: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 7 | P a g e

EUR/USD: 1.0930 German factory orders rose 1.0% m/m in March, driven by big ticket items (core orders fell 0.3% m/m). This left orders up

2.4% y/y. In the wake of the first round of the French presidential election the Sentix investor sentiment index rose another

3.5pts to 127.4. This marks one of the highest readings in the history of the survey and is the highest reading since July 2007.

Meanwhile, speaking in Tokyo, ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said “The recovery in the euro area is gaining

more and more traction,…The confirmation of a broadly balanced risk outlook for growth is within reach”. Today, we will

receive March industrial production and trade reports in Germany, as well as March retail sales in Italy.

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

Expectation for sideway trading was wrong as EUR dropped

sharply after hitting a high of 1.1023 earlier yesterday

morning. The decline appears to be running ahead of itself

and while a test of 1.0900 would not be surprising, a move

below last week’s low near 1.0870 seems unlikely. That said,

EUR has to move back above 1.0950 to indicate that the

decline has stabilized.

Bullish: Diminished odds for further EUR strength.

Despite breaking above the major 1.1000 resistance (high of

1.1023 early yesterday), EUR closed lower and registered a

‘bearish outside bar’. The development came as a surprise

and does not bode well for the current bullish view (that

started on 26 Apr, spot at 1.0930). A break below 1.0900

would indicate that a short-term top is in place at 1.1023.

Until then, another push higher is not ruled out even though

the odds for such a move have diminished (1.1020/25 is

expected to offer solid resistance from here).

Page 8: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 8 | P a g e

GBP/USD: 1.2945

Cable was pulled lower by EUR/USD, with the pair falling below the 1.2950-figure overnight. Notably, British house price

growth remains at its weakest level for nearly four years, mortgage lender Halifax said on Monday, echoing other signs of a

slowdown in the housing market amid uncertainty about the impact of Brexit on the economy. House prices rose 3.8% in the

three months to April compared with the same period a year ago, the same pace as in March which was the weakest increase

since May 2013. Prices fell by 0.1% between March and April, the first monthly decline since January, and were down 0.2% in

the three months to April compared with the previous three months, the first such fall since 2012, Halifax said.

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

The major 1.3000 resistance was unthreatened as GBP

pulled back sharply from a high of 1.2990. A short-term top is

likely in place and the current movement is viewed as part of

a consolidation phase. In other words, GBP is expected to

trade sideways for today, likely at a lower range of

1.2910/1.2970.

Neutral: Bullish again if daily closing above 1.3000.

As indicated yesterday, despite the overall positive

undertone, GBP has to close above 1.3000 to indicate that it

has moved into a bullish phase again. While the odds are not

high, this scenario is not ruled out as long as the strong

support at 1.2880 can hold for the next 1 to 2 days.

.

Page 9: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 9 | P a g e

AUD/USD: 0.7390

Australia's April retail sales came in at -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected and -0.2% (revised lower) last, while retails sales ex-

inflation q/q for Q1 arrived at 0.1% versus 0.50% expected and 0.90% previous. Australia continues to rely heavily on consumer

spending, with consumption the main driver of the domestic recovery in the final quarter of 2016 and will account for a large

share of the nation’s growth moving forward. Later in the day, the Australian government will present the 2017-18 Budget, which

is expected to pledge corporate taxes, an increase in public spending and various other measures designed to boost economic

growth.

Latest Flash Note: 02 May 17

RBA Leaves Cash Rate On Hold https://goo.gl/kF5F8Q

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

AUD traded sideways as expected albeit at a narrower range

than anticipated. The consolidation phase appears

incomplete and further range trading is expected, likely

between 0.7365 and 0.7430.

Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.7335/40.

AUD traded in a muted manner yesterday and there is not

much to add. As highlighted, the combination of waning

momentum and oversold conditions suggest that any further

down-move would likely face difficulty in moving below the

major 0.7330 support. Those who are short when the

bearish phase started last Thursday (see Chart of the Day

update on 04 May, spot at 0.7430) should look to book

some partial profit ahead of 0.7330 (say near 0.7335/40).

Stop-loss is adjusted lower to 0.7450 from 0.7470.

Page 10: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 10 | P a g e

NZD/USD: 0.6920

NZD remains supported ahead of this week's RBNZ meeting. Since the last RBNZ rate decision, the key domestic economic

development has been the stronger-than-expected Q1 CPI print. This, alongside a lower NZD should see the RBNZ lift its

inflation forecasts. However, we expect the central bank to remain firmly on hold and take a cautious approach with its policy

rate outlook.

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

We indicated yesterday that “any further extension is unlikely

to move significantly above 0.6940”. NZD touched a high of

0.6945 before dropping quickly to hit an overnight low of

0.6896. The subsequent swing higher from the low appears

to have scope to extend higher but at this stage, a sustained

up-move above 0.6945/50 seems unlikely. Support is near

the overnight low at 0.6895 but the stronger level is closer to

0.6880.

Neutral: In a 0.6840/0.6955 range. [No change in view, see update from yesterday below]

NZD closed on a strong note last Friday and the recent

downward pressure has eased. This pair has likely moved

into a sideway consolidation phase and is expected to trade

sideways between 0.6840 and 0.6955 for now.

Page 11: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

FX Insights Tuesday, 09 May 2017 11 | P a g e

USD/JPY: 113.20

USD/JPY edged lower in the European morning as European equities gave up early gains but did manage a rally from around

112.40, returning to the 113 handle. Japan's March real wages fell at the fastest pace in almost two years, pressured by

meagre nominal pay hikes and a slight rise in consumer prices, posing a setback for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's attempts to

revitalize the economy. Inflation-adjusted real wages dropped 0.8% in March from a year earlier to mark their biggest rate of

decline since June 2015. In nominal terms, wage earners' cash earnings fell 0.4% y/y in March, also notching the biggest rate

of decrease since June 2015.

Latest Flash Note: 27 Apr 17

Keeping Status Quo But BOJ FY2019 GDP & CPI Forecasts Factors In Consumption Tax Hike In Oct 2019 - https://goo.gl/3lpvg4

24-HOUR VIEW: 1-3 WEEKS VIEW:

USD dipped to a low of 112.36 before surging to close at

113.24, just below the day’s high at 113.29. The strong rally

appears to be running ahead of itself and while an intraday

move above 113.50 is not ruled out, a sustained move above

this strong resistance is not expected (next resistance at

113.80. Support is at 112.90 followed by 112.60. The low of

112.36 is not expected to come into the picture.

Neutral: Bullish again if daily closing above 113.50.

We just shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday and

there is no change to the view. That said, the sharp overnight

swing higher came a surprise and this has shifted the

immediate pressure to the upside. From here, a daily closing

above 113.50 would indicate that USD has re-entered a

bullish phase. While the odds for such a move are not high

for now, the upward pressure would increase quickly as long

as the short-term support at 112.60 can hold for the next few

days.

Page 12: Quek Ser Leang Global Economics & Markets Research Email ... · 1.4100). Support is at 1.4040 followed by 1.4020. Bullish: Immediate target of 1.4080/85. ... This pair is more likely

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB

Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date

of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial

products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should

determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that

the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be

reproduced or otherwise.

Singapore Company Reg No. 193500026Z

Updated on 27 Mar 17 *Updated on 27 Apr 17

*Meetings associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference. #Meetings associated with release of Inflation Report.

^Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Statement. **Meetings associated with release of Outlook Report.

UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook

FX Outlook 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Rates Outlook 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18

EUR/USD 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.09 EU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

GBP/USD 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20 UK 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

AUD/USD 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.80 AU 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

NZD/USD 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 NZ 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%

USD/JPY 115 117 118 119 JP -0.20% -0.20% -0.20% -0.30%

USD/SGD 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.47 SG 1.20% 1.40% 1.45% 1.65%

USD/MYR* 4.35 4.46

4.32 4.48

4.30 4.50

4.28 4.52

MY 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

USD/THB 35.8 36.2 36.5 36.8 TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.75%

USD/CNY 7.02 7.09 7.16 7.20 CN 4.35% 4.35% 4.35% 4.35%

USD/IDR 13600 13700 13800 13900 ID 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 5.00%

USD/PHP 50.2 50.6 50.9 50.9 PH 3.25% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%

USD/INR 67.9 68.8 69.8 69.8 IN 5.75% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%

USD/TWD 31.0 31.1 31.4 31.6 TW 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38%

USD/HKD 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 HK 1.50% 1.75% 1.75% 2.00%

USD/KRW 1140 1150 1160 1170 KR 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%

US 1.25% 1.50% 1.50% 1.75%

Central Bank Meetings 2017

Central Bank Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Federal Reserve (FOMC) - 01 15* - 03 14* 26 - 20* - 01 14*

European Central Bank (ECB) 19 - 09 27 - 08 20 - 07 26 - 14

Bank of England (BOE) - 02# 16 - 11

# 15 - 03

# 14 - 02

# 14

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - 07 07 04 02 06 04 01 05 03 07 05

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) - 09^ 23 - 11^ 22 - 10

^ 28 - 09

^ -

Bank of Japan (BOJ) 31** - 16 27** - 16 20** - 21 31

** - 20

**

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) 19 - 02 - 12 - 13 - 07 - 09 -

Bank of Thailand (BOT) - 08 29 - 24 - 05 16 27 - 08 21

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - - - 13 - - - - - tba - -