global economics & markets research company reg no ... · monday, 04 may 2015 quek ser leang...

Global Economics & Markets Research Company Reg No. 193500026Z

Monday, 04 May 2015

Quek Ser Leang [email protected]

EUR/USD – 1.1180

Bullish view in EUR is still intact; current movement is likely part of a short-term consolidation phase.

The pull-back from the high of 1.1289 last Friday is likely the start of a short-term consolidation phase which

may last for a few days. As long as the trailing stop-loss at 1.0975 is not taken out, the current bullish phase is

still intact and further EUR strength towards the major resistance at 1.1410 cannot be ruled out. The previous

break-out level of 1.1050 is a strong support ahead of 1.0975.

Supports: 1.1050, 1.0975

Resistance: 1.1290, 1.1410

Weekly FX Technical Insights 04 - 08 May 2015

Weekly FX Technical Insights Monday, 04 May 2015 Page | 2

URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Email: [email protected]

GBP/USD – 1.5155

Sharp drop from last Friday is likely part of a broad consolidation and not a bearish reversal.

The bullish phase in GBP that started about 2 weeks ago came to an abrupt end last Friday when GBP plunged

sharply from a high of 1.5400 and broke below the key support of 1.5250. Despite the sharp drop, the down-

move is likely part of a broad consolidation range instead of the start of a bearish reversal. Only a clear break

below 1.5030 would indicate a more sustained GBP weakness in the coming weeks. Else, it is more likely that

this pair will trade between 1.5030 and 1.5400 for now.

Support: 1.5030, 1.4865

Resistances: 1.5270, 1.5400



AUD/USD – 0.7830

Neutral outlook; expect 0.7680/0.8000 range for the next 1 to 2 weeks.

Similar to GBP/USD, the recent strong run-up in AUD came to an abrupt end with the break below 0.7900 late

last week. With daily MACD still holding firmly in positive territory, we view the current down-move as part of

a consolidation phase. In other words, we hold a neutral view now and expect this pair to trade between

0.7680 and 0.8000 for the next 1 to 2 weeks.

Support: 0.7750, 0.7680




NZD/USD – 0.7520

Recent neutral phase has ended and outlook has shifted to bearish with an immediate target of 0.7420.

NZD tested the major resistance near 0.7740/45 twice last week but failed to break above. The subsequent

drop from the high took out the rising trend-line support and is accompanied by strong downward momentum.

In other words, the recent neutral consolidation range has likely ended and the current movement is likely the

early stages of a sustained down-move in the coming weeks. The immediate target is for a move to 0.7420

followed closely by 0.7390. Based on the current momentum, any rebound should hold below 0.7680 even

though last Friday’s peak near 0.7625 is already a very strong resistance.

Support: 0.7420, 0.7390




USD/JPY – 120.10

Bullish USD now but 120.85 is a major resistance.

After trading roughly between 118.50 and 120.10 for more than 2 weeks, USD broke above 120.10 last Friday.

While the upward momentum is not strong, the current up-move appears to possess enough strength to

extend to the major resistance at 120.85. However, further USD strength is likely only upon a clear break of

this level (next resistance is at 121.70). On the downside, a break back below 119.20 is enough to suggest that

the bullish view is wrong.

Support: 119.70, 119.20




USD/SGD – 1.3315

Outlook for USD is viewed as neutral albeit the bias is for a stronger rebound to test 1.3410.

The break of the minor falling trend-line last Friday suggests that the recent bearish USD phase has ended.

While 1.3150 is likely an interim low, it is unclear at this stage whether the current rebound is the start of

bullish reversal. For the next 1 to 2 weeks, the outlook for USD is viewed as neutral albeit the bias is for a

stronger rebound to test 1.3410. The next major resistance is at 1.3500.

Support: 1.3250, 1.3150

Resistance: 1.3410, 1.3500



USD/MYR –

Malaysia is on holiday and the spot market is closed today.

USD/THB – 33.29

Strong impulsive momentum is expected to lead to further up-move to 33.50.

While the target indicated at 32.97 last week was met, the stupendous rally was unexpected. USD easily took

out the 2014 peak of 33.11 and surged to a high of 33.32 as of the time of writing (levels not seen since 2010).

With such strong impulsive momentum, the current rally could extend higher to 33.50 this week. Only a move

back below 33.00 would indicate that a temporary top is in place.

Support: 33.15 33.00

Resistance: 33.40, 33.50



USD/CNH – 6.2140

Continue to expect a move higher to retest last month’s peak near 6.2295.

While upward momentum is not strong at this stage, the outlook for USD still appears to be bullish and we

continue to expect a move higher to retest last month’s high near 6.2295. Only an unexpected break 6.1950

would indicate that the bullish view is wrong.

Support: 6.2050, 6.1950

Resistance: 6.2200, 6.2295



EUR/SGD – 1.4900

Strong upward momentum suggests further up-move to 1.5070.

The strong rally that started middle of last week appears incomplete. Upward momentum is still very strong

and we expect the current rally to extend to 1.5070. Stop-loss is currently at 1.4660 but 1.4800 is already a

strong short-term support.

Support: 1.4800, 1.4660

Resistance: 1.4970, 1.5080



GBP/SGD – 2.0190

Expect choppy trading within a broad range of 2.0055/2.0350.

GBP touched a high of 2.0495 last Thursday before reversing in a spectacular manner to touch a low of

2.0092/97 on Friday. Despite the sharp drop, we are not convinced that the current weakness is the start of a

sustained down-move. We prefer to hold a neutral view for now and expect this pair to trade choppily within

a broad range of 2.0055/2.0350.

Support: 2.0090, 2.0055

Resistance: 2.0250, 2.0350



AUD/SGD – 1.0420

A break of 1.0350 would indicate the start of a sustained down-move to 1.0290/1.0235.

While the unexpected sharp drop from the high of 1.0633/38 last week suggests immediate downward

pressure, the current down-move is approaching strong support at 1.0350. Only a clear break of this level

would suggest further AUD weakness to 1.0290 and possibly 1.0235/40. For now, we hold a neutral view and

expect this pair to trade between 1.0350 and 1.0540.

Support: 1.0350, 1.0290

Resistance: 1.0480, 1.0540



JPY/SGD – 1.1095

JPY is trying to form a base but confirmation of a low is only upon a break above 1.1140.

While there are early signs that JPY is trying to form a base for a recovery, only a break above 1.1140 would

indicate that a low is in place. Otherwise, another leg lower to 1.1000 cannot be ruled out just yet even

though the probability for further down-move appears to be quite slim from here.

Support: 1.1060, 1.1035

Resistance: 1.1140, 1.1200



04-May-15 Summary of Views

FX Pairs Spot Outlook Since

Rate Target Trailing-stop Support Resistance

EUR/USD 1.1180 Bullish 17Apr15

1.0770

1.1410

1.1050

1.0975

1.0870

S1: 1.1050

S2: 1.0975

R1: 1.1290

R2: 1.1410

GBP/USD 1.5155 Neutral 04May15

1.5155 - -

S1: 1.5155

S2: 1.5030

R1: 1.5270

R2: 1.5400

AUD/USD 0.7830 Neutral 04May15

0.7830 - -

S1: 0.7750

S2: 0.7680

R1: 0.7920

R2: 0.8000

NZD/USD 0.7520 Bearish 04May15

0.7520 0.7420 0.7680

S1: 0.7420

S2: 0.7390

R1: 0.7625

R2: 0.7680

USD/JPY 120.10 Bullish 04May15

120.10 120.85 119.20

S1: 119.70

S2: 119.20

R1: 120.85

R2: 121.70

USD/SGD 1.3315 Neutral 04May15

1.3315 - -

S1: 1.3250

S2: 1.3150

R1: 1.3410

R2: 1.3500

USD/THB 33.29 Bullish 28Apr15

32.63

33.50

32.97

33.00

32.70

S1: 33.15

S2: 33.00

R1: 33.40

R2: 33.50

USD/CNH 6.2140 Bullish 28Apr15

6.2150 6.2295 6.1950

S1: 6.2050

S2: 6.1950

R1: 6.2150

R2: 6.2295

EUR/SGD 1.4900 Bullish 30Apr15

1.4685

1.5080

1.4800

1.4660

1.4440

S1: 1.4800

S2: 1.4660

R1: 1.4970

R2: 1.5080

GBP/SGD 2.0190 Neutral 04May15

2.0190 - -

S1: 2.0090

S2: 2.0055

R1: 2.0250

R2: 2.0350

AUD/SGD 1.0420 Neutral 04May15

1.0420 - -

S1: 1.0350

S2: 1.0290

R1: 1.0480

R2: 1.0540

JPY/SGD 1.1120 Bearish 17Apr15

1.1335

1.1000

1.1050

1.1140

1.1200

S1: 1.1060

S2: 1.1035

R1: 1.1140

R2: 1.1200

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB

Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of

the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial

products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should

determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the

reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be

reproduced or otherwise.

global economics & markets research company reg no ... · monday, 04 may 2015 quek ser leang...

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