quantitative project risk analysis- methodologies, work flows, and tools_lev virine
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8/2/2019 Quantitative Project Risk Analysis- Methodologies, Work Flows, And Tools_Lev Virine
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8/2/2019 Quantitative Project Risk Analysis- Methodologies, Work Flows, And Tools_Lev Virine
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Quantitative Project Risk Analysis:Methodologies, Workflows, and Tools
Lev Virine, Ph.D.President
Intaver Institute Inc.
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3
Input Parameters Output Parameters
Calculation
Engine
Critical Path
Scheduling
Engine
(
)
Task durationcost, finish time,etc.
cost, finish time,etc.
Project duration
Technology Pushor
Industry Need
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4 5 6321 7 7 82 3 654 1 4 5 632 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1
2
3
4
5
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Task 1
Task 2Task 3
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Statistical distribution ofproject duration and cost
Crucial tasks
Success rate
Probabilistic and conditionalbranching
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Takes into an account only schedules-related uncertainties
What distribution should be used?
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Activity 1
Activity 2 Event 3
Event 2Event 1
Activity 3
Event chain
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Event Methodology allows to determinecritical risks in addition to results of„classic‟ Monte Carlo Simulations
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Reliable historical data
Experienced experts and established
judgment elicitation processActual project performance tracking
Otherwise use EventChain Methodology
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Can be implemented based on Multi-
Criteria Decision Making Methodologies,for example
Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)
Simple multi-attribute rating technique(SMART)
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Outranking approach
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NASA initiates the use of MCDA methods specifically theanalytical hierarchy process for the selection of projects atKennedy Space Center
USA and Russia evaluate plutonium disposition optionsusing multi-attribute utility theory
IT industry uses analytic hierarchy process for projectportfolio management, particular to build cross-prioritizedportfolio lists
Computer manufactures are using multi-criteria decision-making methodologies and tools for advanced project
portfolio management
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RiskCategories
Risk
Outcomes
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Pair-wise comparison matrix:
Importance of the
category
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Risk fromrisk register
Probabilities and
outcomes formutually exclusive
alternatives
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One risk may belong to different categories.For example, delay in financing may affect
quality and scheduleNon-schedule risks will be assigned asglobal. Project schedule is not required if allrisks are global
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Calculated impact
for all categories
Calculated risk
probability
Score = Probability *
Outcome
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Baseline is asnapshot of
the schedule
Baselines and be
create based onoriginal (deterministic)schedule or results of
calculation
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Pre-mitigationprobability, impact
and score
Post-mitigationprobability, impact, and
score
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Lady Washington, Seattle, USA
HMS Interceptor
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Ship selection
Ship transportation from Grays Harbor, WA:40-day voyage beginning December 2, 2002, arriving onlocation on January 12, 2003
Crew training
Actual shooting
Voyage back
Phases of the project:
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Takes into an account schedule or non-schedule risks using different weights
Easy to use analysis of mitigation efforts
Event-based and distribution-baseduncertainties
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Questions/Comments
24
“PMI” is a registered trade and service mark
of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
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Contact Information
25
Name Lev Virine
Title Quantitative Project Risk Analysis: Methodologies,Workflows, and Tools
Company Intaver Institute Inc.
Email Address [email protected]
Phone Number +1 (403) 692-2252
“PMI” is a registered trade and service mark