quality at speed
DESCRIPTION
Quality is now something most people can take for granted. The products they buy and services they enjoy perform to high levels of reliability and quality year on year. But it wasn’t always that way! We arrived here through the incremental improvement of our technology and processes over many decades. At better than 6 sigma hardware components now provide us with quality vehicles, phones, computers, food, clothing, services and lives. But we cannot relax! Quality is not a destination, it is the lifeblood of what we do and achieve, and we are approaching a new and very different era sometimes defined as the ‘Second Industrial Revolution’. This involves the printing and programing of materials as opposed to the smelting, molding, machining and laborious assembly of components into ‘products’. And as this far more evolutionary and eco friendly time now approaches, it also offers the only visible route to global sustainability through the minimization of energy and material use, whilst achieving a near 100% recycling. Mother nature optimizes nothing, she looks to the survival of ‘The Fortunate’ and achieves this by targeting ‘Good Enough‘ solutions and levels of performance. This model fits well with our anticipated future of rapid change, shortened usage lifetimes, and knowledge creation rates that will make it impossible for any of us to keep up to date with developments. Today Medical Doctors see a knowledge half life of 5 years, Physicists enjoy 13 years, but technologists get only 1 year if they are lucky! This is already manifest in the traffic and activity on The Internet and in The Cloud, with Social Networking/Working, BYOD, and the migration of innovation to the edge of networks. The emergence of AI information systems and distributed manufacturing is also running in parallel. So, our challenge is now to anticipate, adapt, and change in advance of the technology driven changes to come. For sure, quality and quality systems will be drastically different in another 30 years. Quality taken for granted will have to become quality at speed!TRANSCRIPT
QUALITY@ SPEED
Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 7 July 13
Incremental change and steady technological progress has allowed us to realise and maintain high quality products and services decade after decade......we have become masters of design, production, delivery, and support...
Sunday, 7 July 13
We are expert at designing and creating hardware based systems of very high quality and reliability from concatenated components that exhibit known imperfections and limitations in performance...
...failures and limitations are counterbalanced!
Sunday, 7 July 13
We have not enjoyed the same level of success in the realm of software and it still remains a challenging arena...
...but we have attainedworkable levels of quality through the applicationof good practice, and theevolution of standards...
Sunday, 7 July 13
Our Systems and Services now perform and deliver to a very high standard & level of quality
Sunday, 7 July 13
BUT; this is not the finishing line, nor is it the end of the story....
Sunday, 7 July 13
B e c a u s e W E
Are ENTER I NG
A NEW ERA
- Less deterministic- Emergent behaviours- Highly networked- Shorter half lives- Far more organic- Faster change
More evolut ionary than des igned
Sunday, 7 July 13
Computing power, creativity and innovation, is migrating to the periphery, toward the individual, it is multi-device, multi-screen - and it is going global...people and things on-line...
Sunday, 7 July 13
Sunday, 7 July 13
Human inabil ity
& l im itationsYears
Hal
f Life
of K
now
ledg
e
Physics <13 years
Medic < 5 years
ITC < 1 year
Time YearsSunday, 7 July 13
Years
Hal
f Life
of K
now
ledg
e
Time Years
Our mathematical framework
is limited to < 5 variables
Sunday, 7 July 13
Sunday, 7 July 13
THinG THAT
Th i n k L I N K
Communication,CollaborationAutonomy, Evolution, AI + ALSocial Nets, Work, Interaction
And they have a natural ability to synchronize without external stimulus or influence
Sunday, 7 July 13
IN TH IS WORLD
TH ING BECOME
LESS CLEARExpertise in short supply
No real experience base Outcome unpredictable
Knowledge sparseDefinitions difficult
Standards lacking
V i r g i nT e r r i t o r y
Quality will be different !
Sunday, 7 July 13
OUR PAST LOOKS LIKE
THIS - BUT THE
FUTURE
MIGHT
NOT !
Sunday, 7 July 13
perfection is
the enemy
of good
Enough
Sunday, 7 July 13
What Does
Mean ??
Sunday, 7 July 13
IT MEAns doing
sufficient
- Hitting the target once- Using miniminimal energy
- Overcoming multiple unknowns- Coping wi thmul t ip le var iab les
Sunday, 7 July 13
MOther
Nature
- Optimises nothing
- Minimizes energy and material used
- Improves to a point of equilibrium and sometimes superiority and then ceases all improvement
These are the key principals of all natural systems and applicable to those we are now engineering for the future...
. . . e m e r g e n t behaviour is the net and natural result !
Sunday, 7 July 13
and sacrif ices organismswithout a care or thought
MOther
Nature
Taps on the door of
Survival ofthe
Fortunate
Sunday, 7 July 13
THE REALLY
B A D N E W S
We are not good at complexity and/or non-linear systems:
- limited dimensional thinking- no general mathematics- no general theory- lack of expertise- minimal experience- evolutionary thinking is raw- emergent behaviours largely
unpredictableSunday, 7 July 13
T H E B I G
Question
Will any of our tried and tested design and quality control methods and techn iques work in the new a n d f a r m o r e complex future ??
Sunday, 7 July 13
AND;what will
success look
like ?
“A satisfactory result by a mechanism or mechanisms t h a t w e d o n ’ t f u l l y understand, cannot fully characterize or quantify, and non optimal in the traditional sense”
Sunday, 7 July 13
Speed
Technology
DemandChange
Expectation
NetworkingInnovation
AI AL
Accepta
nceAdaptatio
n
Sunday, 7 July 13
An accelerating
Cycle
...with more and more machine defined and dominated
cycles and integrated components
Sunday, 7 July 13
HOW Will
All This
S ha p e
Up AND
W h a t
will the
END GAME
LOOK LIKE ?
Sunday, 7 July 13
Sunday, 7 July 13
Will make new and very differentdemands of us, our infrastructures, the
way we design, produce, deliver, manage, and organise societies, companies, people... quality.....
A world of
of more
things
than
people
Sunday, 7 July 13
now is the time to
start thinking
Thank You
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 7 July 13