QUALITY@ SPEED

Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk

ca-global.org

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

Sunday, 7 July 13

Incremental change and steady technological progress has allowed us to realise and maintain high quality products and services decade after decade......we have become masters of design, production, delivery, and support...

Sunday, 7 July 13

We are expert at designing and creating hardware based systems of very high quality and reliability from concatenated components that exhibit known imperfections and limitations in performance...

...failures and limitations are counterbalanced!

Sunday, 7 July 13

We have not enjoyed the same level of success in the realm of software and it still remains a challenging arena...

...but we have attainedworkable levels of quality through the applicationof good practice, and theevolution of standards...

Sunday, 7 July 13

Our Systems and Services now perform and deliver to a very high standard & level of quality

Sunday, 7 July 13

BUT; this is not the finishing line, nor is it the end of the story....

Sunday, 7 July 13

B e c a u s e W E

Are ENTER I NG

A NEW ERA

- Less deterministic- Emergent behaviours- Highly networked- Shorter half lives- Far more organic- Faster change

More evolut ionary than des igned

Sunday, 7 July 13

Computing power, creativity and innovation, is migrating to the periphery, toward the individual, it is multi-device, multi-screen - and it is going global...people and things on-line...

Sunday, 7 July 13

Sunday, 7 July 13

Human inabil ity

& l im itationsYears

Hal

f Life

of K

now

ledg

e

Physics <13 years

Medic < 5 years

ITC < 1 year

Time YearsSunday, 7 July 13

Years

Hal

f Life

of K

now

ledg

e

Time Years

Our mathematical framework

is limited to < 5 variables

Sunday, 7 July 13

Sunday, 7 July 13

THinG THAT

Th i n k L I N K

Communication,CollaborationAutonomy, Evolution, AI + ALSocial Nets, Work, Interaction

And they have a natural ability to synchronize without external stimulus or influence

Sunday, 7 July 13

IN TH IS WORLD

TH ING BECOME

LESS CLEARExpertise in short supply

No real experience base Outcome unpredictable

Knowledge sparseDefinitions difficult

Standards lacking

V i r g i nT e r r i t o r y

Quality will be different !

Sunday, 7 July 13

OUR PAST LOOKS LIKE

THIS - BUT THE

FUTURE

MIGHT

NOT !

Sunday, 7 July 13

perfection is

the enemy

of good

Enough

Sunday, 7 July 13

What Does

Mean ??

Sunday, 7 July 13

IT MEAns doing

sufficient

- Hitting the target once- Using miniminimal energy

- Overcoming multiple unknowns- Coping wi thmul t ip le var iab les

Sunday, 7 July 13

MOther

Nature

- Optimises nothing

- Minimizes energy and material used

- Improves to a point of equilibrium and sometimes superiority and then ceases all improvement

These are the key principals of all natural systems and applicable to those we are now engineering for the future...

. . . e m e r g e n t behaviour is the net and natural result !

Sunday, 7 July 13

and sacrif ices organismswithout a care or thought

MOther

Nature

Taps on the door of

Survival ofthe

Fortunate

Sunday, 7 July 13

THE REALLY

B A D N E W S

We are not good at complexity and/or non-linear systems:

- limited dimensional thinking- no general mathematics- no general theory- lack of expertise- minimal experience- evolutionary thinking is raw- emergent behaviours largely

unpredictableSunday, 7 July 13

T H E B I G

Question

Will any of our tried and tested design and quality control methods and techn iques work in the new a n d f a r m o r e complex future ??

Sunday, 7 July 13

AND;what will

success look

like ?

“A satisfactory result by a mechanism or mechanisms t h a t w e d o n ’ t f u l l y understand, cannot fully characterize or quantify, and non optimal in the traditional sense”

Sunday, 7 July 13

Speed

Technology

DemandChange

Expectation

NetworkingInnovation

AI AL

Accepta

nceAdaptatio

n

Sunday, 7 July 13

An accelerating

Cycle

...with more and more machine defined and dominated

cycles and integrated components

Sunday, 7 July 13

HOW Will

All This

S ha p e

Up AND

W h a t

will the

END GAME

LOOK LIKE ?

Sunday, 7 July 13

Sunday, 7 July 13

Will make new and very differentdemands of us, our infrastructures, the

way we design, produce, deliver, manage, and organise societies, companies, people... quality.....

A world of

of more

things

than

people

Sunday, 7 July 13

now is the time to

start thinking

Thank You

cochrane.org.uk

ca-global.org

COCHRANEa s s o c i a t e s

Sunday, 7 July 13