qmforecasting lab hw#3 (1)

7/23/2019 QMForecasting Lab HW#3 (1)

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IDP, Quantitative Methods and Business ForecastingLab Homework #3 due on ov !3rd in hard"co$ %orm but $ou can send$our mode&s in '(ce& to m$ e"mai&) Lab H* #! wi&& he& $ou stud$ %or themid"term, so &ease do a good +ob)

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1. Using Excel Add-in Data Analysis and the following data:

X = Years withco!any

Y = "hares of co!anystoc#

$ %&&1' (&)1( *$&$ '*'+ '))1% $*&1* $%&+ *''

a. ,hat are the easres of central tendency and the standard deiation for /oththe X and Y data0/. ,hat is the correlation /etween X and Y0

c. reate a "catter Diagra for these data.d. 2ow wold yo descri/e this correlation0e. 3n the slo!e-interce!t regression forecast and !redict shares of stoc# fore!loyees at ) 4 15 years of serice with the co!any. 6s slo!e-interce!t one ofthe /est ethods to se in this case0f. ,hy wold soeone want to forecast this inforation7 for what !r!ose0

'. 1. Data collected on the yearly deand for *&-!ond /ags of fertili8er at"nshine 9arden "!!ly are shown in the following ta/le.

Year Deand for ertili8er ;17&&&s

of


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'&&) +'&&+ 11'&1& 1('&11 1*

a. Deelo! a three-year oing aerage and to forecast sales in year '&1'/. Deelo! a %-year do/le-weighted aerage to !redict deand in year 1'. "ales inthe ost recent year is gien a weight of ' and sales in the two years !rior to thatare each gien a weight of 1.c. >ow integrate and add a slo!e in con?nction with yor % year weighted oingaerage to forecast deand again for year '&1'.d. Deelo! a regression@trend line to estiate the deand of fertili8er in year 1'.e. 6s there anything wrong with the data that cold /e ad?sted0 Deelo! a astBoing Aerage that eliinates the data for '&&*.f.


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(. >oral Distri/tion orecast with >G3B6>H fnction.

Che tie reired to co!lete a !ro?ect is norally distri/ted with a ean of )&wee#s and a standard deiation of 1& wee#s. Che constrction co!any st !aya !enalty if the !ro?ect is not Inished /y the des date of the contract. 6f aconstrction co!any /idding on this contract wishes to /e +& !ercent sre ofInishing /y the de date7 what forecasted de date ;!ro?ect wee# J shold /enegotiated0

KUse the >oral Distri/tion forecast ethod. Chis forecast ethod can /e sed

when the data is norally distri/ted and the ean 4 standard deiations are#nown and trac#ed oer tie.2int: yo ight want to se yor >G3B6>H fnction in Excel or the forla for theFro/a/ility orecast Bethod:

F;x = 8;L M N

1"2core /ab&e +&O +*O ++O1.$(* 1.+$ '.$1 ;' tail

1.') 1.$(* '.%* ;1 tail

Fro/a/ility &.+ean )&standard 1&>G3B6>H +'.)'

so we rond !3weeks

Fro/a/ility &.+*ean )&standard 1&

>or +$.(*

so we rond !4weeks


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*. Yo are !lanning a tri! to Pas Hegas and want to stdy /asic !ro/a/ility in orderto increase yor odds of winning. Yo hae decided to !lay cards7 Qi! coins7 shootcra!s7 and !lay rolette.

a 6f a noral coin is tossed7 what is the !ro/a/ility that yo will Qi! two headsin a row0

/ 6f three coins are tossed7 what is the !ro/a/ility of at least one tail0c 6f a fair dice is rolled7 what is the !ro/a/ility of getting a *0d 6f a fair dice is rolled7 what is the !ro/a/ility that the n/er is less than %0e 6f two fair dice are rolled7 what are the total otcoes !ossi/le0f ,hat is the !ro/a/ility of shooting a 5 or 11 on yor Irst coe ot roll in

cra!s0 K6n cra!s yo win on the Irst roll if yo get 5 or 117 yo lose cra! ot if yoroll a '7 % or 1'.,hat is the !ro/a/ility that yo will lose0

g 6n a noral dec# of *' !laying cards shRed correctly7 what is the !ro/a/ilityof !ic#ing a face card0

h 6n a noral dec# of *' !laying cards shRed correctly7 what is the !ro/a/ility

of !ic#ing two face cards in a row withot re!laceent0i 6n a noral dec# of *' !laying cards shRed correctly7 what is the !ro/a/ility

of !ic#ing a heart0? 6n a noral dec# of *' !laying cards shRed correctly7 what is the !ro/a/ility

of !ic#ing a second heart after yoSe !ic#ed the Irst and yo did notreshRe that second tie0

# 6n a noral dec# of *' !laying cards shRed correctly7 what is the !ro/a/ilityof !ic#ing a /lac# '0

l 6n rolette7 what is the !ro/a/ility of getting a /lac# n/er0 6n rolette7 what is the !ro/a/ility of getting a n/er in the Irst coln0

$ reate a tie series charts and identify trends sing Igres on !age ;%(-(%of yor text as a guidethat incldes the following data7 a!!lications7 andanalysis in Excel:

a. Crend line/. Crend fnctionc. 6dentify slo!e and interce!td. Descri!tie statistics: does it lag in data that has a strong trend0e. 3egression rnf. Cest for signiIcanceg. "lo!e@interce!t forecast for at least ' ore !eriods in the ftreh. Boing aerage forecast: si!le7 fast7 do/le-weighted.i. "easonal co!onent

5 Frint ' stoc# charts fro the follow list that show oing aerages of '& and*& days and *& and '&& days.


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Boing aerage of '& and *& days


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or oing aerage '& to *& days we can see an golden cross in the endBoing aerages of *& days and '&& days


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or oing aerage of *& to '&& days we can see a death cross

Boing aerage of '& days *& days


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Boing aerage of *& to '&& days


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Cech "toc#s: B"C7 2FT7 "G7 AAFP7 G3P7 3B

yclical oodities: X7 X7 F2B7 AUY7"PH7 BGG

inancial: 9"7 7


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the stoc# !rice doesnSt go /elow it. Bostly if a !erson is /llish a/ot astoc# !rice it is desira/le to /y it at the s!!ort.

3esistance lines resistance line is a ty!e of ethod which is also sed in

technical analysis. 3esistance leel indicates that the stoc# or index isInding it diZclt to /rea# throgh it. 6t is o!!osite of s!!ort as s!!ort islowest the resistance is the highest leel of stoc# !rice. 6f an inestor

thin#s that the stoc# !rice is Inding it diZclt to /rea# the resistance thanhe wold sell oW as itSs the /est !rice what he cold get.


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3elatie "trength 6ndex or 3"6 it is sed to Ind the strength of a stoc# to

deterine the strength of a stoc#. 6t is sed to chec# weather a stoc# isoer sold or nder /oght. 6t gies an indication of when to /y or to sell astoc#. 6t easres soc#s directional !rice oeents. orla for 3"6 isas follows:

82I = 1&& - 1&&@;1 M 3"K

6 wold !ersonally /e an technical inestor as een thogh diWerent ty!es ofinesting a!!roach has diWerent ty!es of ass!tions and theories /t 6 li#e thisty!e of a!!roach only /ecase 6 Irly /eliee that history tends to re!eat itself. "owhen we analy8e the !ast !rices with the trends ;oing aerages7 trend line etcwe cold get an estiate of ftre !rices. Boreoer a!art fro exogenos eentsQctations the !rice oes in trends. Gne of the a?or !ro/le with this ty!e ofa!!roach is that it only loo#s at !rice and oeent exclding the co!aniesfndaental factors /t 6 /eliee that the !rice already is shifted /y this factors sothis is ost sita/le ty!e of a!!roach for e.

3eference :htt!:@@www.inesto!edia.co@stoc#charts.coyahooInance.co
http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/

qmforecasting lab hw#3 (1)

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