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Q4 2015INVESTOR PRESENTATION
Investments03
Company
Overview02
Refining
Industry01
Key
Financials04
Refining Industry
Brent Crude Oil Prices
108,0 115,3106,1
101,2
94,6
84,3
71,7
65,760,4
55,0
55,0
45,2
62,0
66,7
26,0 28,725
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
02
.01
.20
14
06
.02
.20
14
13
.03
.20
14
17
.04
.20
14
22
.05
.20
14
26
.06
.20
14
31
.07
.20
14
04
.09
.20
14
09
.10
.20
14
13
.11
.20
14
18
.12
.20
14
22
.01
.20
15
26
.02
.20
15
02
.04
.20
15
07
.05
.20
15
11
.06
.20
15
16
.07
.20
15
20
.08
.20
15
24
.09
.20
15
29
.10
.20
15
03
.12
.20
15
07
.01
.20
16
11
.02
.20
16
4
$/Barrel
CONS
Excess Crude Supply
Cooling Chinese Economy
Consumption is lower than usual
in the winter months because of
the El-Nino effect
High production from the OPEC
and non-OPEC producers
Entry of Iranian production
The amount of additional new
refining capacity in ME and China.
PROS
Increased geopolitical risk
perception
Potential high consumption due to
the lower price environment.
Narrowed spread between the
Brent and WTI and increased
spread between the light and
heavy crudes
Worsening situation of the
economies in oil dependent
countries
Net Refinery Capacity Change
810 640160 195 52
-255-543 -486
334
150
340 13540
-145
-109 -266
160
250
18184
180
-240
65
-421
530
526
0 302
-5
-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
510
0
198
-443
63
-189
200
880
0
309
-100
20
-218
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America Europe
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
/Day
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : Tüpraş
5
Refinery Value
Value Added•Ability to upgrade
•Correlated to complexity
Cost Base•Energy Efficiency•Raw Material costs•Scale•Automation
Local Market Dynamics•Growth trends•Supply / Demand balance
Market Position•Proportion of products sold domestically•Local Competition•Infrastructure
6
Product Ratios (Barrel/Barrel)
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
Jan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Sep
Oct
No
v
No
v
Dec
Diesel
2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015
Gasoline ratio was at very high levels
Ratios have suffered seasonal declines
0,85
0,95
1,05
1,15
1,25
1,35
1,45
1,55Ja
n
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Sep
Oct
No
v
No
v
Dec
Gasoline
2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012 2013 2014 2015
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
Jan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Sep
Oct
No
v
No
v
Dec
Fuel Oil
2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012 2013 2014 2015
7
Crude Differentials $/Barrel
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009-2012 Min/Max 2012 2014 2011 2013 2015
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
Differentials Trends
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC
Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel
8
Med Complex Refining Margins
9
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gro
ss M
argi
n $
/bb
l
Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Turkish Sector Outlook
Primary driver of demand is
growing vehicle parc
Auto sales continue to massively
outstrip removals
Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG
& Diesel substitution
Gasoline car sales improving35,8 41,2 50,6 58,3 64,5 76,1 85,4 97,543,6 44,3
52,259,4
65,473,4
80,383,9
79,4 85,5102,8
117,6130,0
149,5165,7
181,4
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Air Passengers - Mill ion
Domestic International
4,6 5,4 6,1 6,8 7,1 7,5 8,1 8,6 9,3 9,9 10,54,1
4,86,1
7,0 7,2 7,6 8,0 8,4 8,7 9,0 9,4
8,710,2
12,213,8 14,3 15,1
16,117,0 17,9 18,8
19,9
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ion
Veh
icle
s
Vehicle Parc
Passenger Car Other
Jet Fuel demand growing strongly Highly competitive liberalised market
Big infrastructure investments
Istanbul has become a hub for Turkish Airlines
Fuel Oil demand is declining Natural gas substitution
Switching is dependent on price
Long Term Asphalt Demand Growth Infrastructure investments
10*By the end of November
15,616,7
17,4
15,906
18,429
14,0
15,0
16,0
17,0
18,0
19,0
2012 2013 2014 2014(11M) 2015(11M)
Diesel
Turkish Consumption (Million ton)
1,85 1,861,92
1,76
1,92
1,65
1,70
1,75
1,80
1,85
1,90
1,95
2012 2013 2014 2014(11M) 2015(11M)
Gasoline
3.2%
7.0%4.2%
0.5%
3,5 3,7 4,1 3,778 4,253
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2012 2013 2014 2014(11M)2015(11M)
Jet Fuel
5.5% 11.2%
0,690,53 0,53 0,49
0,38
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
2012 2013 2014 2014(11M)2015(11M)
Fuel Oil
-1.1%-23.0%
11
+15,9%+9,1%
+12,6%
-26.4%
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-3,0
3,0
-12,3
1,6
-14,0-13,0-12,0-11,0-10,0
-9,0-8,0-7,0-6,0-5,0-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,0
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million Ton
Export
Import
Company Overview
14
TÜPRAŞ Refining Assets
İzmir
İzmit
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale
Batman
Kirkuk
Baku
MARMARA
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity :
1.4 Mn m3
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity :
0.3 Mn m3
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 14.5
Storage Capacity :
3.0 Mn M3
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity :
2.5 Mn M3
Lube Oil Production 400
thousand ton
Black Sea
Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons – 100% of Turkey’s refining Capacity
Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 9.5
OPET Tüpraş Share 40.0 %
1.419 İstasyon
1.003 Opet Marka
416 Sunpet Marka
1.1 Million M3 Storage
•Major Terminals in Marmara, Agean, Black Sea & Mediteranean
International Trading
•London
Jet Fuel Sales
•Turkish Airlines JV
Lubricants
•Fuchs JV
A Sector Leader
•2nd Biggest Player
•# 1 Brand
15
16
DİTAŞ – Deniz Taşımacılığı – Tüpraş Share %79.98
19,314,8
6,4 4,8 6,6
2,6
3,1
3,13,5
5,2
18,0
9,6
9,68,4
11,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
To
ns
Crude Products
Million $ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Sales 146,4 159,0 103,7 101,7 113,6
Op. Profit 17,9 22,8 25,2 27,3 36,8
• Crude• 2001
• 164,86 K DWT
Cumhuriyet
• Products • 2008
• 10,98 K DWT
Sevgi
• Products • 2009
• 10,98 K DWT
Gönül
Products
2011
6 K DWT
Leyla
Products201255 K DWT
Suna
• Bitumen
• 2x20 K DWT
• Esra 2014
• Aylin 2015
Esra & Aylin
16
Financials
19 Tugboats
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1
0,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,3
0,6
1,9
2,4
5,7
1,6
0,2
0,1
2,6
5,4
7
3,1
1
2,3
9
2,5
7
0,5
9
0,3
0
0,0
0
1,4
3
I RA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API
17
Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl
6,1
3
2,6
2
4,8
9
4,3
4 3,6
5 2,6
3
-0,2
8
7,5
16,2
8
1,4
0
3,5
5
1,6
5
5,7
3
2,5
2
0,0
6
4,8
8
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2nd Quarter
Tupras Net Med Complex
18
1,5
7
1,7
2
1,3
7
3,8
7
1,9
6 0,9
0
2,4
1
4,6
93,7
0
3,4
4
3,5
0
0,4
2
2,9
7
2,8
3
0,4
4
5,9
8
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1st Quarter
Tupras Net Med Complex
6,3
7
1,8
7
5,0
2
8,2
0
5,9
1 4,1
3
5,5
3
8,3
26,7
2
1,5
9
1,7
4
1,2
0
5,2
3
1,0
5
3,4
5
4,9
2
0,0
5,0
10,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3rd Quarter
Tupras Net Med Complex
3,4
5
3,0
5
5,8
2 4,4
2
1,7
2
2,0
3
4,5
6
5,1
7
5,4
6
1,3
4
2,7
6 1,4
1
2,9
2
0,3
0
3,8
4
3,5
4
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4th Quarter
Tupras Net Med Complex
Capacity Utilisation (%)9
1,1
86
,1
60
,4
69
,6 74
,4 78
,7
76
,8
71
,3
98
,1
8,7
7,55,5
2,9 2,43,6
4,4
69,2
77,181,6
79,174,9
102,5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Crude Oil Other
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
3,31
4,19 4,324,06
5,51
6,256,47
6,07
4,554,63 5,41
5,51
5,71
6,82
7,32 7,42
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015
Production
19
+27,6%
4th Quarter Product Yields
12M Product Yields
Domestic Sales, million tons
1,81 1,78 1,82 1,832,04
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gasoline
2,763,29
3,553,83
4,75
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jet Fuel
7,878,57 8,11
6,70
9,17
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Diesel
2,95 2,81 2,93
1,95
2,87
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bitumen
22
12M Trading Activities
Exports High CUR = big increases in export
Finished Products High Sulfur Diesel imports decreased due
to low desulphurisation arbitrage profits.
ULSD imports were higher due to thetrading arbitrage.
Intermediates Additional HVGO + LCGO imported to
increase Capacity Utilisation of conversion units (RUP Coker and Hydrocracker Unitsincluded)
23
0
882
692
24
532
274
0
637
804
49
588
61
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
Product Imports, Ton*000
2014
2015
2.508
129
2.670
27
3.559
349
2.551
350
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other
Exports, Ton*000
2014
2015
436
733
0
200
400
600
800
HVGO + LCGO ASR F.Oil
Intermediate Imports , Ton*000
12M 2014 12M 2015
Sales By Customer 2015
24
Distributors40%
THY Opet11%
Jet Fuel5%
LPG Dist.3%
Petkim1%
Other5%
Export23%
Asphalt10%
Military2%
OMV POAŞ25%
OPET17%
Shell13%
BP6%
TP4%
TOTAL4%
Diğer 31%
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Total: 28.7 million ton Distributors : 12.8 million ton
Investments
26
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
395
188 177
628
974
1201
959
344270
Investments (Million USD)
İzmit Waste Water Treatment
27
Project Aims
• To reduce the need for fresh water
What the Project Entails
• A water treatment plant to process municipal & refinery waste water
• Two temporary systems were built to serve until the main system was completed
• Project completed in 2015
Investment
• 22 Million USD
İzmir Crude Unit Revamping Project
Project Aims
• Eliminating low energy efficiency in the furnaces
• Enables sustainable full capacity utilization
What the Project Entails
• Configuration Changes
• De-salter & Pre-flash column
• Heat recycling – Heat Exchanger
• Replace column internals
• New pre-flash drum
Expectations
• Investment: 31.9 Million USD
• IRR > 40%
28
Kırıkkale Power Plant
29
Project Aims
• Improving Energy Efficiency at Kırıkkalewith a combined heat & power plant
• The other refineries are already equipped
• Expected completion: 2016
What the Project Entails
• A new gas turbine
• New steam turbines
• New boilers
• One existing steam turbine will be utilized
• Total power: 60 MW
Investment
• 84 Million USD
• IRR: >30%
R&D
The R&D department was set up
in 2009
It works primarily on process
improvements
One of the first commercial
successes was the Membrane
Deaerator Project
The Project maximizes the use of waste heat in the refinery by utilizing cold feed water
Unit costs and physical size are much less than the alternative processes
The process has been implemented in two of the refineries
It won an EU Environmental awarded
30
Membrane Deaerator
Conventional Deaerator
Key Financials
Profitability Indicators , 12 M & 4Q
* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in
operationg profit
32
4th Q(%)
Full Year(%)
2014 2015 2014 2015
76,27 43,69 -43 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 98,99 52,46 -47,0131,91 30,27 -5,1 Processed Crude API 32,29 31,35 -2,9170,50 77,50 7,0 White Product Yield, (%) 72,20 75,40 3,20
3,84 3,54 -7,8 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 1,95 4,83 148,24,56 5,17 13,3 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 3,21 6,47 101,613,2 422,0 - Operating Profit, (mn. $) 199,3 1.012,2 408-41,1 362,4 982 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 220,1 1.218,6 45443,4 481,4 1.008 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 317,3 1.191,0 275
247,7 564,9 128 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 554,1 1.379,1 149-10,9 421,8 -3.980 EBITDA *(mn. $) 338,2 1.397,4 313193,4 505,3 161 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 575,0 1.585,5 176
Financial Highlights (mn $)
779
134262
95 79 150 150
256
328
153 78-27
415
271
468
361315 226
410169
272
10689
-11
422
830
1.329
715560
338
1.397
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2009 2010 2011 2012R 2013 2014 2015
522
67194 161
72231
112145
16575
75
171273
230
206309 435
175 26847
174 27147 91
285
490
740817
629 667
938
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-65
3
-1.9
55
57
8
55
1
1.3
40 1.9
94
1.6
96
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63 2
.45
2
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
0,2
2
0,1
9
0,3
0
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,1
0
0,4
0
0,3
3
0,3
0
0,2
6
0,1
8
0,3
0 0,3
5
0,3
5
0,000,050,100,150,200,250,300,350,400,45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20131Q
20141Q
20141H
20149M
2014 20151Q
20152Q
20159M
2015
EBITDA Net Income
Net Debt/(Cash) Return on Average Equity
33
Balance Sheet Analysis
1,831,81
1,41
2,16
1,721,69
1,30
1,641,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Dec.12Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep13 Dec 13Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15
Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
1,191,34
1,451,33
0,930,71
0,520,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,070,88
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,0 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8
0,40,8
0,81,0 0,5
0,90,3 0,3 0,3
0,4 0,5 0,60,6
2,4
2,93,1
3,43,1
3,7
3,2 3,2 3,33,7 3,6 3,6 3,4
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
2,882,972,94
3,463,223,103,28
3,04
2,46
1,741,701,591,36
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
Payables (Billion $)
34
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2015 )
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,337
RUP Loans: 1,550
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 88
ST Financials 351
• RUP 300
Payables
904
Forward
2,003
Stock
675
Receivables
188
Cash
550
Million $
-177 million $
Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,709 mn $35
Future Expectations
Brent Price Estimation
• The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be 45-55 dollars per barrel band.
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.5-4.0 dollars per barrel band in 2016.
Tupras Net Margin
• For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in the region of 5.8-6.3 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
• Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around 100 %.
• Production will therefore be approximately 28 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
• Total sales volume will be 30.0 million tons
Investment
• Total investments for 2016 will be about 270 Million dollars
36
Income Statement
37
4Q 4 Q% Diff. Million USD 2014 2015 % Diff.
2014 2015
3.974,2 3.031,3 -24 Net Sales 18.164,8 13.570,7 -25
98,0 454,5 364 Gross Profit 577,5 1.535,7 166
-108,1 -98,8 -9 Operating Expenses -334,6 -322,6 -4
23,2 66,3 185 Income/Loss from Other Oper. -43,6 -200,9 361
13,2 422,0 3.098 Operating Profit 199,3 1.012,2 408
-28,6 10,9 -138 Income/Loss from equity & Inv. -7,6 26,7 -450
-15,4 432,9 -2.913 Operating Profit Before Finance 191,6 1.038,9 442
64,9 -60,0 -192 Financial Income 228,1 317,3 39
-94,5 2,0 -102 Finance Expenses -335,8 -537,7 60
-45,0 374,9 -932 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 84,0 818,6 875
90,8 284,8 213 Net Profit 667,2 938,0 41
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets
38
Million USD 31.12.2015 31.12.2014 Difference%
Difference
Current Assets 2.984 3.015 -31 -1
Cash & C. Equivalents 1.041 1.681 -640 -38
Receivables 882 87 796 920
Derivatives 6 28 -21 -77
Inventories 723 1.022 -299 -29
Pre-paid expenses 45 53 -8 -15
Other Current Assets 285 144 141 98
Long Term Assets 5.776 6.443 -667 -10
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 264 315 -51 -16
Fixed Assets 3.950 4.600 -651 -14
Pre-paid expenses 62 112 -50 -45
Deferred Tax 1.101 1.131 -30 -3
Other Long Term Assets 314 284 29 10
Total Assets 8.760 9.458 -698 -7
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities
39
Million USD 31.12.2015 31.12.2014 Difference % Difference
Short Term Liabilities 3.036 3.692 -656 -18
Financial Loans 644 335 308 92
Payables 1.363 2.464 -1.101 -45
Derivatives 13,89 0,03 13,86 47.258
Deferred Incomes 8 8 -0,12 -1
Provisions 24 47 -23 -48
Other ST Liabilities 984 838 146 17
Long Term Liabilities 2.845 3.087 -242 -8
Financial Loans 2.768 3.009 -241 -8
Payables & Provisions 67 76 -9 -12
Derivatives 9 0 9 4.325
Other LT Liabilities 1 2 -1 -29
Equity 2.856 2.655 201 8
Minority Interests 22 24 -2 -10
Total Liabilities 8.760 9.458 -698 -7
Dividends (TL)
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
2,312,50
2,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
579626
746
985 964
396
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tota
l Pay
ou
t (M
illio
n T
L)
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive40
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is
believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable,
they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying
assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this
presentation.
41
The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly updated
information of interest to investors
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations and Reporting Director
Investor Relations Manager
Turgut Tuncay Önbilgin Deniz Değirmenci
Investor Relations and Reporting DirectorsTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: [email protected]