q2 presentation 20 july final - telia companyinterim report january –june 2016 q2q1 solid q2...
TRANSCRIPT
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JOHAN DENNELIND,
PRESIDENT & CEO
INTERIM REPORT
JANUARY – JUNE 2016 Q1Q2
SOLID Q2 - STRONG FIRST HALF
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S E R V I C E R E V E N U E G R O W T H
E B I T D A * G R O W T H
F R E E C A S H F L O W
Reported -1.2%Organic -0.2%
Reported +4.1%Organic +5.1%
SEK 1.8 billion
*Excluding non-recurring itemsContinuing operations
Reported -0.9%Organic -0.6%
Reported +7.1%Organic +7.6%
SEK 3.9 billion
Q2 2016 H1 2016
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SERVICE REVENUESOrganic growth, external service revenues
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Sweden Europe Continuing operations
-0.2%-0.2%
-0.2%-0.2%
+0.9%+0.9%2.0%
7.4%5.1%
Q215
Q216
Q215
Q216
Q215
Q216
CONTINUED EBITDA GROWTH - REVENUES STABLE
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EBITDAOrganic growth, excluding non-recurring items
• Region Europe supported by growing mobile service revenues in almost all markets
• Sweden impacted by lower fixed telephony revenues and pressure in B2B large segment
• Lower EBITDA growth in Sweden, mainly due to less favourable y-o-y comparable
• EBITDA growth in 6 of 7 markets in region Europe supported by mobile service revenue growth and cost control
Continuing
operationsEuropeSweden
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Telia passed, not connectedCommunication operatorTelia connected (MDUs + SDUs)
MIXED REVENUE DEVELOPMENT IN SWEDEN
Q2 15 Q2 16
+1.6%+1.6%
-5.0%-5.0%
+4.0%+4.0%
B2B
B2C
Excl. fiber installation revenues
Incl. fiber installation revenues
1.4 million1.4 million
TELIA FIBER HOUSEHOLDSSERVICE REVENUES BY SEGMENTOrganic growth, external service revenues
• B2C segment supported by revenue growth in broadband, TV and fiber installations
• Still pressure in B2B despite positive development in SME/SoHo
• 42,000 new connections in Q2 of which around 50 percent SDUs
• SDUs passed now exceeds 550,000 of which close to 50 percent are connected
1.2 million1.2 million
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VALUE LOADING IN SWEDEN
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1.3%2.5%
13.3%
Q215
Q216
Q215
Q216
Q215
Q216
TV
TOTAL ARPU DEVELOPMENTGrowth y-o-y, B2C and B2B
• Positive growth trend in B2C mobile ARPU offset by pressure in B2B
• Price increases support TV ARPU
• Broadband ARPU increase mainly driven by speed migration
Fixed broadbandMobile
B2C PRODUCT MONETIZATION% of total subscription base
Q2 15base
Q2 16base
12 GB or >
Other
Q2 15base
Q2 16base
60 Mbit
30 Mbit
10 Mbit
Q2 15base
Q2 16base
100 Mbit or >
10 Mbit
Q2 15base
Q2 16base
Large
Mid
Start &other
MobileMobile TVTV
DSLDSL FiberFiber
3.8%
0.8%
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Mobile billed service revenues Total mobile service revenues2,769 2,739
Q2 15 Q2 16
-0.8%-0.8%
HIGHER EARNINGS IN FINLAND
6 * External service revenues **Excluding non-recurring items
Service revenues EBITDA
= Organic growth
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency
MOBILE SERVICE REVENUES*Organic growth
• Lower interconnect and fixed broadband revenues behind revenue decline
• Growth in mobile billed service revenues and cost control contribute to EBITDA growth
• Price increases and good data monetization in B2C support mobile billed service revenues
• Network quality stabilized
978 987
Q2 15 Q2 16
+1.9%+1.9%
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SOLID PERFORMANCE IN NORWAY
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731 705
Q2 15 Q2 16
+5.0%+5.0%
Service revenues EBITDA
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency
• Positive growth in mobile billed service revenues was offset by lower interconnect revenues
• Improved SARC spend and overall good cost control behind EBITDA improvement
* External service revenues **Excluding non-recurring items = Organic growth
3.8%
1.3%
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Mobile billed service revenues Total mobile service revenues
MOBILE SERVICE REVENUES*Organic growth
• Higher mobile billed service revenues following successful upsell activities
• Telia awarded best 4G network in Norway’s biggest independent test
1,978 1,807
Q2 15 Q2 16
-0.4%-0.4%
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195 205
247281
134 135
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Estonia Lithuania Latvia
Q2 15 Q2 16Lithuania
Q2 15 Q2 16Latvia
+13.9%+13.9%
Q2 15 Q2 16Estonia
EARNINGS GROWTH IN THE BALTICS
+3.6%+3.6%
+0.8%+0.8%
-3.2%-3.2%
+4.6%+4.6%
+0.5%+0.5%
SERVICE REVENUES*Organic growth
EBITDA**SEK million
• Growing demand for mobile data partly offset by lower roaming revenues
• Challenging B2B segment in Latvia
• Service revenue growth and cost control in Estonia and Lithuania behind improved EBITDA
* External service revenues = Organic growth ** Excluding non-recurring items
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FOCUSING ON STRENTHENING POSITION IN THE NORDICS & BALTICSEXITING NON-CORE BUSINESSES
NEW GROUP STRUCTURE TAKING SHAPE
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• Divested to MÁSMÓVIL
• Closing estimated in Q3
• Divested to Marginalen
• Closing estimated before year-end 2016
• Divested to Axiata, transaction closed in Q2
• Q2 impacted by FX and closing adjustments
• Enhanced ICT capabilities needed to broaden the enterprise proposition
• Ambition to further strengthen convergent position
• Telia X established for accelerating new initiatives
SUMMARY Q2
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EB ITDA GROWTH IN 7 OF 8 MARKETS
STABLE SERV ICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENT
EXECUTING ON STRATEGY– PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZAT ION
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CHRISTIAN LUIGA,
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT & CFO
INTERIM REPORT
JANUARY – JUNE 2016 Q1Q2Q2
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STABLE SERVICE REVENUES - LOWER EQUIPMENT SALES
SERVICE REVENUESOrganic growth, external service revenues
NET SALESOrganic growth
-0.2%-0.2%
Q2 16Inter-connect
&Carrier
Q2 16Otherservice
revenues
Fixedexcl.
Carrier
Mobileexcl.
interconnect
Q2 15
• Lower interconnect and low-margin voice revenues in Carrier behind decline in service revenues
• Excluding interconnect, 6 of 8 markets displayed mobile service revenue growth
• Decline in net sales due to lower equipment sales in Europe, mainly Finland
+0.6%+0.6%
Equipment Sweden
Service revenues
Q2 15
-1.0%
Q2 16Equipment Europe
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EBITDA GROWTH BUT AT A SLOWER PACE
EBITDAOrganic growth, excluding non-recurring items
EBITDAOrganic growth, excluding non-recurring items
Other Q2 16Europe
+5.1%+5.1%
SwedenQ2 15
5.1%
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
• Growth in mobile service revenues and good cost control support EBITDA
• Europe supported by strong growth in Spain
• Lower growth in Q2 primarily due to tougher comparisons in Sweden
MOBILE GROWTH AND SOLID COST CONTROL IN EUROPE
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EBITDAOrganic growth, excluding non-recurring items
+7.4%+7.4%
Q2 16SPAQ2 15 LATESTLITDENNORFIN
• Growth supported by price adjustments and higher data consumption
• Mobil service revenue growth in 6 of 7 markets
MOBILE SERVICE REVENUESOrganic growth, external service revenues
Denmark
Norway
Finland
Q2 15
+2.3%+2.3%
Q2 16
Spain
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
• Improved service revenue mix and lower operating expenses
• EBITDA growth in 6 of 7 markets
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NCELL DECONSOLIDATION & FX IMPACT IN EURASIA
SERVICE REVENUES*SEK billion, reported currency, discontinued operations
EBITDA**SEK billion, reported currency, discontinued operations
• Organic service revenues remained unchanged
• Reported revenues significantly impacted by deconsolidation of Ncell and FX
• Reported EBITDA impacted by:
• Organic development
• Negative FX impact, mainly Kazakh Tenge
• Ncell deconsolidated end of April
OrganicQ2 15
3.1
1.4
-54.4%-54.4%
Q2 16FX Ncell deconsolidation
** Excluding non-recurring items
FXQ2 15
5.4
Organic Ncell deconsolidation
3.3
Q2 16
-39.2%-39.2%
* External service revenues
-0.1 p.p.
-24.2 p.p.
-14.9 p.p.
-16.2 p.p.
-19.4 p.p.
-18.8 p.p.
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PRESSURE IN KAZAKHSTAN AND AZERBAIJAN
SERVICE REVENUES* Q2Organic growth, discontinued operations
EBITDA** Q2Organic growth, discontinued operations
-15.2%
-9.5%
19.7%
-0.2%
Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Uzbekistan TotalEurasia
• Mixed service revenue development
• Negative development in Kazakhstan Q2 but some early signs of market repair
• EBITDA impacted by revenue pressure in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan together with operational FX impact and higher operational tax costs in the region
-34.0%
-27.9%
0.6%
-21.0%
Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Uzbekistan TotalEurasia
** Excluding non-recurring items* External service revenues
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2015 H1 2016 2016 2017
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INVEST-TO-SAVE AND COST DEVELOPMENT ON TRACK
• Invest-to-save on track and slightly improved run-rate since year-end
INVEST TO SAVE PHASINGSEK billion, savings run-rate at period/year-end
0.60.8
1.1
2.0
• OPEX decline for three consecutive quarters
• Comparable numbers on cost will be more challenging during second half of 2016
-4%
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
OPEX DEVELOPMENT*Organic growth, excl. Norway
* Norway excluded for comparison reasons due to theTele2 acquisition
14.9
0
5
10
15
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
1.6 1.7
1.4 1.3
0.7 0.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Q2 15 Q2 16
Other operations
Europe
Sweden
SWEDEN FIBER ROLL-OUT DRIVES CAPEX
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= In relation to reported service revenues
20.2%20.2% 20.9%20.9%
CAPEX EXCLUDING LICENSESSEK billion, continuing operations
CAPEX EXCLUDING LICENSESSEK billion, continuing operations, rolling twelve months
• Fiber accounts for around 50 percent of CAPEX in Sweden
• CAPEX in Europe mainly related to 4G roll-out in Norway and Finland
• CAPEX run-rate approaching the high endof full-year guidance range
10
0.27
-0.25
0.23
-0.13
-0.32
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EPS IMPACTED BY DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
0.75 0.05
0.15
0.33
-0.42-0.42
Q2 16
Dis
cont
inue
dop
erat
ions
-0.59
Oth
er
-0.03
Ass
ocia
tes
Ope
ratin
gin
com
e*Q2 15
EPS - TOTALSEK
EPS - DISCONTINUED OPERATIONSSEK
• Higher EPS in continuing operations more than offset by lower EPS in discontinued operations
• Discontinued operations impacted by Ncell deconsolidation, Ncell capital loss (owners of the parent), impairment charges and lower results
-0.21
D&Aand
other
Impair-ments
EBITDAexcl.Ncell
-0.23
Q2 15
-0.59-0.59
Q2 16Ncell decons.
+0.17+0.17
Continuing operations
Ncellcapital
loss
* Excluding income from associates and non-recurring items
LOWER FREE CASH FLOW
FREE CASH FLOW
- CONTINUING OPERATIONSSEK billion, continuing operations
• Cash flow Q2 2015 positively impacted by Turkcell dividend of SEK 4.7 billion net of tax
• Working capital improvement in primarily Sweden
* Excluding non-recurring items ** Excluding tax on dividends from associates *** Net of tax
-3.2-3.2
Q2 16
1.8
Dividends from
associates***
-4.7
Other
0.2
Workingcapital
1.0
Tax**
0.1
EBITDA*
0.3
Q2 15
5.0
0
4
8
12
16
20
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
Discontinued operations Dividends from associates net of taxes Continuing operations excl. associates Continuing operations incl. associates
20
FREE CASH FLOW
- GROUP SEK billion, rolling twelve months
11.4
16.016.615.5
17.2
8.9
11
21
LEVERAGE REMAINS LOW
NET DEBT/EBITDA*
1.60
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 Q2 16
* Net debt to rolling twelve months EBITDA excl. non-recurring items
(Continuing and discontinued operations)
1.60
• Leverage in the low-end of target (2.0x +/- 0.5)
• First dividend tranche of SEK 6.5 billion paid in April 2016
• Second dividend tranche of SEK 6.5 billion to be paid in October 2016
OUTLOOK 2016 – UNCHANGED
* Excluding non-recurring items, in local currencies, excluding acquisitions and disposals** Excluding license and spectrum fees, currency fluctuations may impact the reported number in Swedish krona
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In line or slightly above the level in 2015EB ITDA *
SEK 14-15 billion
> 80% of free cash flow - at least SEK 2 per share
CAPEX * *
DIV IDEND
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Q&A
DEBT MATURITY SCHEDULEMMO
0
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2
3
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5
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8
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-76
May-17
Jun-17
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2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058 2061 2064
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DEBT MATURING NEXT 12 MONTHSSEK billion
DEBT PORTFOLIO MATURITY SCHEDULE – 2016 AND ONWARDSSEK billion
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FINANCIAL SUMMARY Q2 2016
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* Excluding non-recurring items
Q2 2016 Q2 2015 CHANGE (%)
Net sales (SEK million) 21,130 21,558 -2.0
Change local organic (%) -1.0
Service revenues (SEK million) 18,075 18,289 -1.2
Change local organic (%) -0.2
EBITDA* (SEK million) 6,389 6,136 +4.1
Change local organic (%) +5.1
EBITDA* Margin (%) 30.2 28.5 +1.7p.p.
Total EPS (SEK) 0.33 0.75 -55.8
Total free cash flow (SEK million) 1,698 6,307 -73.1
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JUN 30, 2016 DEC 31, 2015
Return on equity*, % 7.4 9.3
Return on capital employed*, % 9.3 8.9
Equity/assets ratio, % 36.7 35.1
Net debt/equity ratio, % 54.9 62.5
Net debt/EBITDA** ratio, multiple 1.60 1.53
Net debt/assets ratio, % 20.2 21.9
* Rolling 12 months ** Rolling 12 months, excluding non-recurring items
FINANCIAL KEY RATIOS Q2 2016
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FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company.
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