17/10/2015 Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria

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Home>Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria

Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria[1]

DovS.Zakheim[2]

ItappearsthatasignificantportionoftheWashingtonpolicycommunityisdismissingRussiasVladimirPutineitherasmerelyatactician,ratherthanastrategist,orasPresidentObamawouldhaveit,afoolwhohasinjectedhisforcesintoaquagmire.NeitherassertionreflectstherealitythatisRussiaspositionintheMiddleEasttoday.

WhileeveryoneacknowledgesthatPutinwantstoretainRussiaspresenceinSyria,fewrealizethatMoscowisinaconsiderablystrongerpositionintheMiddleEastthantheSovietUnioneverwas.Certainly,SyriawasnottheonlyfriendofCommunistMoscow.SaddamHusseinlongenjoyedacloserelationshipwiththeSoviets,whobackedhimtothehiltrightuptothedaytheUSSRcollapsed.

Ontheotherhand,relationswithIranwerenotparticularlyclose,evenafterthefalloftheovertlyantiCommunistShah.DuringthecourseoftheIranIraqWar,MoscowssupportforSaddambecameincreasinglyovert,withtheSovietseventuallyprovidingactivesupporttoIraquntilthewars

17/10/2015 Yes,PutinDoesHaveaStrategyinSyria

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endin1989.TheSovietUnionsrelationswithEgyptwereevenworseAnwarSadathadexpelled20,000Sovietmilitaryadvisorsin1972afterwhichCairoallieditselffirmlywiththeWest.Finally,despiteitsrecognitionofIsraelsoonafteritdeclaredindependence,MoscowbrokeoffrelationswiththeJewishstateafterthe1967WarandneverreestablishedthemduringtheremainingyearsoftheUSSRsexistence.

Thesituationisfardifferenttoday.Tobeginwith,IranandRussiaarenowBasharAssadsprimarybulwarks,bothofthemdeterminedtopreserveanAlawiregime,ifnotAssadhimself.RussiamaintainsitscordialrelationswithIraq,whicharebecomingincreasinglystrongerasIraqcontinuestofallunderTehransinfluence.RussiahasstrengtheneditstieswithEgypt,botheconomicallyandinwhatbothPutinandthegovernmentofPresidentAbdelFatehalSisicallthefightagainstterrorism.Thetwopresidentshaveexchangedstatevisitsoverthepasttwoyears.

Lastly,RussiahasexcellenttieswiththemostpowerfulstateintheMiddleEast,namelyIsrael.MoscowandJerusalemhavebecomeincreasinglyclose.Whenhewasforeignminister,AvigdorLibermanwasafrequentflyertoMoscowandcontinuestomaintainadirectlinetoPutin.AswithEgypt,tradebetweenthetwocountriescontinuestoincrease,includingtradeinarmaments.Indeed,JerusalemissosensitivetoMoscowsdesiresthatitcutoffmilitarysalestoGeorgiaduringthe2008RussoGeorgianconflictandhasnotrenewedthemeversince.Indeed,thereseemedtobesometruthtoallegationsthatIsraelhadsupplieddatalinkcodestoRussiatodisableGeorgiandronespriortothe2008war.IsraelhasalsohesitatedtoselldronesorotherarmstoUkraine,specificallyasaresultofPutinspersonalrequesttoPrimeMinisterBenjaminNetanyahu.

AllofthesedevelopmentsexplainwhyPutinisinamuchstrongerpositionregardingRussiasinterventioninSyriathanmightotherwisehavebeenthecase.IrananditsLebanesepuppetHezbollahareprovidingbootsonthegroundinsupportofAssadRussianforcesarereputedlyjoiningthem,inadditiontoMoscowsairstrikesagainstantiAssadrebelforces.IraqhasjoinedwithRussiaandIranincreatingacoordinationcenterinBaghdad.Egypt,foritspart,hasopenlysupportedRussianinterventioninSyria.AsEgypt'sForeignMinisterSamehShoukrystated[4]justtwodaysafterRussialauncheditsfirstairstrikesagainsttheSyrianopposition,"Russia'sentrance,givenitspotentialandcapabilities,issomethingweseeisgoingtohaveaneffectonlimitingterrorisminSyriaanderadicatingit.

Lastly,andsignificantly,duetoNetanyahusvisittoMoscowpriortothefirstRussianairstrikes,thetwoleadersagreeduponwhatNetanyahutermedajointmechanismtoassuredeconflictionbetweentheoperationsofIsraeliandRussianforces.Ineffect,theagreementgaveMoscowafreehandinSyria,whileIsraelwouldnotfaceanyRussianobjectionstoitsretaliatingagainstHezbollahorantiAssadforceslaunchedfromSyrianterritory.

PutinhasessentiallycoveredallhisflanksintheMiddleEast,otherthanJordanandtheGulfstates,butnonearelikelytohaveanynegativeimpactuponhisproAssadintervention.JordanhasstudiouslyavoidedgettingenmeshedinthewarandhasinsteadfocusedonmaintainingorderinthefaceofaninfluxofamillionSyrianrefugees.WhiletheGulfstatesarestillprovidingfundstotheSyrianopposition,theyarethemselvescaughtupintheYemeniconflict.Inparticular,SaudiArabia,themostpowerfulsouthernGulfstate,isinnopositiontodomuchabouttheRussianintervention.Itiscaughtupinaquagmireofitsown,inYemen,facesanincreasinglychallengingfiscalcrisis,andmayalsobewrackedbydissensionwithintheroyalfamily.

Finally,SyriamaynotprovetobethequagmirethatPresidentObamaseemstohopeitwillbe.UnlikeAfghanistan,wheretheSovietsfacedoppositionfrommostAfghans,regardlessofethnicbackground,PutinknowsthattheAlawicommunity,whichcomprisessometenpercentofthepopulation,willbackhimtothehilt,sinceitsverysurvivalmayotherwisebethreatenedbytheSyriasmajoritySunniArabs.SotoowillSyriasdwindlingChristianandDruzeminorities,whichlongwereprotectedbytheAssadfamilyandwholikewisehavemuchtofearfromboththeIslamicState(IS)andthealNusrafrontthatislinkedtoAlQaeda.Finally,theSyrianKurds,whohaveinflictedthemostdamageonIslamicStateforces,certainlywouldpreferaweakenedAssadtoIslamistforcesofanykindrulingfromDamascus.

Putinhasevery,ifnotmore,reasontofeartheISthandoesAmerica.RussianMuslimsarejoiningISforcesingreaternumbersthanthoseoftheUnitedStates.TherestiveMuslimrepublicsinsideRussiaarefertilegroundforIslamicStateexpansion,whichisattheheartofIStheologyandpolicy.AtsomepointPutinmayturnhisforcesagainsttheminSyria,buthefirsthastoensurethattheAlawisremaininpowerelsewhereinthatcountry.

Insum,itappearsthatVladimirPutinhasafarbetterhandleontheMiddleEastthanhisAmericancounterpart.HispositionisstrongerthaniteverwasundertheSoviets.Russiasincreasedpresencehasenhanced,notdiminished,itsinfluenceintheregion.Heisseenasstandingbyhisallies,tothepointofcommittinghumanandmaterialresourcestodefendthem.

WithforcesactivelyengagedinonthegroundinSyria,aswellasairpowerbasedthereandmissilethatcanbe,andhavebeen,launchedfromoutsidethecountry,heisinapositiontolaunchanattackontheIslamicStateoncethepreservationofanAlawiregimeisassured.

Inthemeantime,Washingtonwringsitshands,issuesschoolmarmishreprimandstoMoscowthatRussiablithelyignores,cannotevenreachanysortofarrangementwiththeRussiansthatwouldpermitcreationofaviablesafezoneforSyrianrefugees,andhasfailedtodevelopapracticalprogramtosupporttheSyrianopposition.Crucially,AmericacontinuestobeseenasabandoningitsfriendswhetherlookingtheotherwayastheShahfell,callingfortheremovalofHosniMubarak,overridingIsraeliapprehensionaboutthetermsoftheIrandeal,orcontemplatingwithdrawalfromAfghanistandespitePresidentAshrafGhanispleastothecontraryintheirtimeofneed.Itisnotaprettypicture.UnlessthereisaturnaroundinAmericanpolicy,whethertowardreachinganunderstandingwithRussiaregardingSyriasfuturegovernance,providingmorethanrhetoricalreassurancetoIsraelthatIranwillneveracquireanuclearcapability,andensuringacontinuingandmeaningfulmilitarypresenceinAfghanistan,thatpicturecanonlygetworse.

DovS.Zakheimwastheundersecretaryofdefense(comptroller)andchieffinancialofficeroftheU.S.DepartmentofDefensefrom2001to2004.HeisvicechairmanoftheCenterfortheNationalInterestandservesontheAdvisoryCouncilofTheNationalInterest.

TagsRussia[5]Putin'sStrategy[6]Syria[7]TopicsSecurity[8]

SourceURL(retrievedonOctober17,2015):http://nationalinterest.org/feature/yesputindoeshavestrategysyria14084?page=show

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