Inventing Russia

Politics in the 90s• 1993 a new constitution approved• New parliament (the “Duma”), half from party

lists, half from single member constituencies• Powers of President strengthened• President appoints Prime Minister, cabinet• “Russia Votes” – analysis of Russian voting

patterns• 1996 Eltsin makes a comeback as President from

certain defeat with the money of Boris Berezovsky• Eltsin dances during campaign• November 1996 – bypass operation

Eltsin’s second term: Politics

1996 reelected on second round against Gennady Ziuganov (Communist)

1996 Alexander Lebed signs peace deal with Chechen leaders

Rotating prime ministers Communists control Duma: block reforms Rich oligarchs control Kremlin (Berezovsky,

Gusinsky, Khodorkovsky, Potanin, Smolensky) Eltsin’s image as a drunken buffoon

Political Parties: The Communist Party (KPRF)

Leader: Gennady Ziuganov (b. 1944)

Share of vote to Duma:

1993 11.6 % 1995 22.3% (34 % of

seats in Duma) 1999 24.3%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

Right-wing nationalist party

• Leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky (b. 1946)

• Popular intemperate buffoon.

• Took votes away from Communists

• Zhirinovsky in European Parliament

Democratic parties

Yabloko – Led by Grigory Yavlinsky (right)

Democratic Party of Russia

In 1993 get about 10 % of the vote

Moscow… the centre of it all

• Throughout the Eltsin era – Moscow is the centre of Russia, sucking the resources out of the rest of the country.

• Moscow becomes symbol of Russian identity.

• Yury Luzhkov, Mayor of Moscow, masterminds Moscow’s evolution.

• 2010 Medvedev fires Luzhkov for corruption.

Eltsin Period: Economics

Late 1990s – oil prices collapse 1998 the Default: Russia defaults on GKOs

(government bonds) Ruble goes from 6 to the $ to 18, then 30. Huge budget deficits Unpaid salaries and pensions Inflation and financial instability; banks collapse Crippling taxes on small business Flight of capital offshore Vulnerability of economy to falling oil prices

Eltsin Period: Government

Television controlled by oligarchs Berezovsky, Gusinsky

Russia is a chaos of competing chains of organized crime

Federal government disorganized, unreformed

Weak central power & strong regions Compromise with Chechens leads to chaos

in the Caucasus

Backgrounder: Oil prices

Who is Putin? Law degree from Leningrad

State University Recruited by KGB (1975-

1991) Worked in GDR (East

Germany) 1985-1990 On return to Russia worked in

administration of Anatoly Sobchak, liberal mayor of St Petersburg

1998 Becomes head of FSB, successor to KGB

Personal characteristics Paradoxical figure: liberal and KGB

backgrounds Stiff, awkward in formal situations Personable likeable one-to-one Perceived by ordinary Russians as their kind of

guy Extremely intelligent and articulate Hardworking and well-briefed Can be ruthless when necessary

The new man...

August 1999 Vladimir Putin appointed prime minister of Russia by Eltsin

September 1999 Putin opens second Chechen war

Organizes new party “Unity” with Boris Berezovsky’s money for December elections

Putin named acting president by Eltsin on December 31, 1999

Getting through the Duma

Putin’s objective: to break the logjam in the Duma (parliament) that had blocked efforts at reform

Gradually over three elections with changes in the electoral law (eliminating single-member districts), United Russia becomes the dominant party

Russia Votes

Putin’s programme: Russian conservatism

Economic reform: appoints first-class economists (Kudrin, Gref, Chubais) to important posts

Balance budget, repay foreign debt, build up stabilization fund while oil and gas prices are high

Tax reform: flat income tax of 13% Private ownership of land Increase wealth of Russia: during his 8 years in

office, average salaries increase 6 times Pensions, public sector salaries paid on time Current endebtedness of Russia

Disasters: The Kursk

12 August 2000 Kursk submarine incident: nuclear sub experiences explosion in torpedo, sinks to the bottom of the sea

Disasters: Hostage-taking in Moscow

23 October 2002 Nordost hostage taking: 850 people at musical taken hostage by about 40 Islamic terrorists

After three days 39 terrorists and 129 hostages killed (mostly by gas pumped into the building by Special forces)

Russian identity: a new nationalism Reverts to the anthem of the USSR with new

patriotic words: Russian national anthem Strengthens the role of the Russian

Orthodox Church. Propaganda in favour of the achievements of

Russia AND the USSR (victory in 1945, sputniks, sport)

Begins to rebuild armed forces

“Vertical of power” Centralization of all power in the

hands of the president in Moscow Unity Party (Edinstvo) develops

into United Russia (Edinaia Rossia)

organization of Russian political life around one party reaching down from the Kremlin to local levels

Local governors’ job: to turn out the vote and support Kremlin’s initiatives

Other tame parties tolerated so long as they do not try to claim more than token power.

Khodorkovsky & Co Takes on the oligarchs –

deeply unpopular with Russians

Warns oligarchs not to meddle in politics

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of oil company Yukos arrested in 2003, tried for tax fraud, sent to Siberia

Seizes their assets; Boris Berezovsky, Vladimir Gusinsky driven into exile

The media are the message

Takes over the TV stations formerly owned by oligarchs: Berezovsky, Gusinsky

TV self-censorship: no criticism or ridicule of president or policies

Numerous investigative journalists murdered, including Anna Politkovskaia

Recently introduced English-language world-wide service Russia Today to give Russian point of view

Rewriting the constitution I

Rules for elections continually rewritten to favour United Russia:

minimum 7% vote to get into Duma, single-member districts eliminated: only

party lists allowed Result: independents eliminated, only four

parties currently represented in Duma: UR, CPRF, LDPR, Fair Russia

Rewriting the Constitution II: Governors

Beginning 2004 (after Beslan) governors of regions now appointed by the President, not elected, only approved by regional assemblies (usually dominated by UR)

Inefficient or corrupt governors can be removed by Presidential decree

The burgeoning bureaucracy Putin’s programme requires a hugely

bureaucratic state Corruption blossoms at every level from police

to ministries: no free press to expose abuses, bureaucrats have unlimited power

Transparency International puts Russia at 147 on world perception of corruption index

Bureaucracy stifles free enterprise: small and medium-sized businesses harrassed by local officials

Bureaucracy often hand-in-glove with monopolies to suppress competition

International context: responding to aggressive US policy

NATO/US Expansion into E. Europe 1999 Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary 2004 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria,

Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia Independence of Kosovo even though U.N.

Security Council resolution 1244 guaranteed the territorial integrity of Serbia

Huge US base in Kosovo (Camp Bonisteel)

The “Coloured Revolutions”

September 2000 – “Otpor!” Yugoslavia Milošević ousted

November 2003 – Georgia “Rose Revolution”: Saakashvili replaces Shevardnadze

November 2004 – Ukraine “Orange Revolution” “Pora!” Viktor Yanukovich defeated by Viktor Yushchenko

March 2005 – Kyrgyzstan “Tulip Revolution”: President Akayev replaced by Bakiyev

Putin in Munich

The Rebirth of “Peter”: Rebuilding Peter’s city

When working in Sobchak’s administration, Putin had a picture of Peter the Great over his desk

St Petersburg tercentenary in 2003: Russia hosts the G8

St Petersburg designated as cultural centre

St Petersburg and Russian Cultural Heritage:The Hermitage Museum

The Mariinka Known in Soviet times

as the “Kirov” after a murdered party boss

Resumes its old name World-class centre of

music, ballet and opera

Director Valery Gergiev

Revolutionary new styles and repertoire

Aleksandr Sokurov:The Russian Ark (2002)

Revolutionary film taken in one shot in the Hermitage on the shortest day of the year

Steadycam glides through the halls of the Museum

Panorama of Russian history

Questions

Why is Putin so popular? Could anyone else have done a better job? Is the “power vertical” the natural form of

government for Russia? Is the course plotted by Putin sustainable in

the long term?