puget sound cfl saturation study
DESCRIPTION
Regional Technical Forum Meeting November 9, 2007. Puget Sound CFL Saturation Study. Study Review Research Objectives & Questions Approach & Process Research Outcomes Key Findings Key Opportunities & Recommendations Where We Go From Here. Presentation Overview. 2. STUDY REVIEW. 3. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Regional Technical Forum MeetingNovember 9, 2007
Puget Sound CFL Saturation Study
• Study Review– Research Objectives & Questions– Approach & Process
• Research Outcomes– Key Findings– Key Opportunities & Recommendations
• Where We Go From Here
Presentation Overview
2
STUDY REVIEW
3
• To quantify standard (one-inch) screw-base sockets and the current placement of CFL bulbs, by room, fixture type, and control type; and
• To quantify the saturation of CFL bulbs and assess consumer likelihood of installing additional CFL bulbs where they have not already done so.
Research Objectives
4
• Remaining Potential – What is the remaining potential for CFLs by household,
room, fixture type and control type? – How much of this is technical potential and how much is
attainable?
• Future Program Design– How can the data and information collected through this
study be used to plan future utility programs focused on residential lighting?
Research Areas
5
Attainable Potential – the number of CFL bulbs individuals are willing to install today
Achievable (long term) - could be influenced by programs or media messages
Attainable (short term) - willingness to install CFLs today
Technical Potential – the number of CFL bulbs individuals could install today
Defining Potential
6
• Secondary Research Review (Sept – Nov ‘06)
– Identified key research questions to ask– Identified methodology pros and cons
• Mail-Based Survey (Nov ‘06 – June ‘07)
– Expert consult, pre-test & pilot-test– Response bias check (telephone interviews)– Data accuracy check (in-home audits)
Study Approach
7
• Introductory letter mailed to sample (Week 1)
• Survey packet mailed (Week 2…three days later)
– Cover letter– Survey booklet– Reference card– Return envelope– Incentive request card
• Reminder postcard mailed (Week 3)
• Respondents provided two weeks to return materials
Survey Implementation Process
8
• Telephone interviews conducted with 14% of (n=39) pilot non-respondents (285 out of 375 sent survey)
• In comparison to respondents, non-respondents are– ~ 10 years younger– Slightly more likely to own their house– The same on income, education, housing type and
gender Determined that no survey changes were required,
survey implementation began
Response Bias Check
9
Sample Disposition
Survey Population Utility Populations
Age (Median) 45-54 35-44
Education 62% College Degree 41% College Degree
Income (Median) $40,000-$59,999 $50,000-$74,999
Housing Type 66% Single Family 60% Single Family
Housing Tenure 75% Own 62% Own
Gender 54% Female 50% Female
• In-home audits conducted with 10 SnoPUD pilot survey respondents– ~40% under-reporting of sockets and CFLs installed– Saturation levels unaffected– Potential positive effect of utility staff presence on
willingness to install CFLs
• Manual review of data– From pilot: small change made to instruction card– From full survey: threw out 4% of (n=70) surveys for
“bad data”
Data Accuracy Check
11
KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS
12
Key Finding #1
Opportunity exists for more CFL installations
13
Sockets, CFLs & CFL Saturation Levels
Sample Size
Number of Sockets Number of CFLs Installed
CFL Saturation Level
Average Median Average Median Average Household*
Total Service Area**
Puget Sound Energy 537 41.7 37 6.9 3 18.6% 16.6%
Seattle City Light 609 33.4 28 5.6 2 18.2% 16.3%
Snohomish County PUD
342 40.9 36 8.5 5 23.0% 19.7%
Total 1488 38.1 33 6.7 3 19.4% 17.1%
*Average Household Saturation = Avg of all reported household saturation levels; (HH1Sat + HH2Sat + … + HH1488Sat) / 1488
**Total Service Area Saturation = (# of all CFLs in service territory) / (# of all sockets in service territory)
Recommendation #1
Encourage installation of additional CFLs throughout the house.
15
Remaining Potential, Household
6.7
11.3
20.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ave
rag
e N
um
ber
of
CF
L B
ulb
s
Remaining AdditionalTechnical Potential
Remaining AdditionalAttainable Potential
Number of CFL BulbsCurrently Installed
Remaining Potential, Rooms (weighted)
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
1.1
0.9
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.5
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kitchen
Living Room
Master Bedroom
Master Bathroom
Outside Areas
Basement, Laundry,
Workshop & Garage
Entry, Halls & Stairs
Dining Room
Other Bathroom
Other Bedroom
Family Room
Home Office
Weighted Average Number of CFL Bulbs
Number of CFL Bulbs Currently Installed
Remaining Additional Attainable Potential
Remaining Additional Technical Potential
Remaining Potential, Fixtures
4.31.6 1.5
7.6
3.61.6
13.2
5.6
3.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Surface Mount orHanging
Recessed Can Table or Floor Lamp
Ave
rag
e N
um
ber
of
CF
L B
ulb
s
Number of CFL Bulbs Currently Installed
Remaining Additional Attainable Potential
Remaining Additional Technical Potential
Remaining Potential Planning Estimates
Utility Total Number of Sockets
Total Number of CFLs Installed
Current Service Area CFL Saturation
Total Remaining Attainable Potential
Total Remaining Technical Potential
Puget Sound Energy 39,618,791 6,516,762 16.6% 12,576,394 20,525,563
Seattle City Light 10,506,785 1,712,325 16.3% 3,446,335 5,348,125
Snohomish County PUD 11,153,803 2,317,301 19.7% 2,574,620 6,261,882
Total 61,279,307 10,546,388 17.1% 18,597,349 32,135,570
20
Housing Type Sample Size Total Number of Sockets
Total Number of CFLs Installed
Current Service Area
CFL Saturation
Total Remaining Attainable Potential
Total Remaining Technical Potential
Single Family 362 34,077,477 5,697,819 16.8% 10,363,316 18,016,342
Multifamily 112 4,403,487 561,352 13.4% 1,921,930 1,920,205
Manufactured 53 1,137,754 257,591 22.7% 291,148 589,015
Total 527 39,618,719 6,516,762 16.6% 12,576,394 20,525,563
Remaining Potential Planning Estimates, Puget Sound Energy
21
Remaining Potential Planning Estimates, Seattle City Light
Housing Type Sample Size Total Number of Sockets
Total Number of CFLs Installed
Current Service Area
CFL Saturation
Total Remaining Attainable Potential
Total Remaining Technical Potential
Single Family, Detached 366 7,153,264 1,240,331 17.4% 2,234,630 3,678,303
Apartment or Condo 118 2,379,488 331,174 13.8% 827,927 1,220,387
Duplex, Triplex or Fourplex 30 744,329 112,387 15.2% 334,396 297,546
Townhouse or Rowhouse 10 229,704 28,432 12.4% 49,383 151,889
Manufactured or Mobile 0 -- -- -- -- --
Total 524 10,506,785 1,712,325 16.3% 3,446,335 5,348,125
22
Remaining Potential Planning Estimates, Snohomish County PUD
Housing Type Sample Size Total Number of Sockets
Total Number of CFLs Installed
Current Service Area
CFL Saturation
Total Remaining Attainable Potential
Total Remaining Technical Potential
Single Family, Detached
229 8,501,329 1,816,922 21.4% 1,839,832 4,844,574
Apartment or Condo 64 1,158,753 236,193 20.6% 226,419 696,140
Manufactured or Mobile 22 581,636 121,760 20.9% 172,336 287,541
Duplex, Triplex or Fourplex
12 555,472 136,191 24.4% 151,492 267,789
Townhouse or Rowhouse 8 356,613 6,234 1.7% 184,541 165,837
Total 335 11,153,803 2,317,301 19.7% 2,574,620 6,261,882
Recommendation #2
Continue to facilitate consumer purchases through utility CFL rebate
and coupon programs.
23
Consumer Purchasing Preferences - Coupons & Rebates
Today, are you more likely to buy CFL bulbs...?
Regardless of coupons or rebates
30%
Using a coupon or
rebate70%
Key Finding #2
CFL programs should be targeted
25
Recommendation #3
Develop a strategy that focuses on encouraging individuals in the
multifamily sector to try CFL bulbs for the first time.
26
Distribution of CFLs in Households
29%
17% 16% 16%14%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0 1-2 3-5 6-10 11-20 21+
Number of CFLs in Household
Perc
en
t of
Hou
seh
old
s
1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0
N u m b e r o f C F L s in H o u s e h o ld
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
Zero CFLs - Demographic Comparison
Apartments or Condos
Zero CFLs42%
One or More CFLs
58%
Renters
One or More CFLs
59%
Zero CFLs41%
Detached Single Family Homes
Zero CFLs23%
One or More CFLs
77%
Owners
Zero CFLs24%
One or More CFLs
76%
Recommendation #4
Promote the use of CFL bulbs in low saturation rooms in marketing
messages.
29
Average Saturation Level by Room
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30
Average Saturation
B, L, W&G
Family Room
Living Room
Kitchen
Home Office
Outside Areas
Entry, Halls & Stairs
Master Bedroom
Other Bedroom
Dining Room
Master Bathroom
Other Bathroom
Ro
om
n=1067 0.27
n=651 0.25
n=1389 0.25
n=1372 0.24
n=415 0.24
n=1175 0.21
n=1037 0.20
n=1414 0.20
n=1217 0.18
n=1164 0.13
n=1148 0.12
n=943 0.11
High Lighting Energy Use
Medium Lighting Energy Use
Low Lighting Energy Use
Remaining Potential, Rooms (weighted)
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
1.1
0.9
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.5
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kitchen
Living Room
Master Bedroom
Master Bathroom
Outside Areas
Basement, Laundry,
Workshop & Garage
Entry, Halls & Stairs
Dining Room
Other Bathroom
Other Bedroom
Family Room
Home Office
Weighted Average Number of CFL Bulbs
Number of CFL Bulbs Currently Installed
Remaining Additional Attainable Potential
Remaining Additional Technical Potential
Recommendation #5
Promote and provide information on all specialty bulbs currently available
and continue efforts to promote development of specialty bulbs not
yet available in the market.
32
Specialty bulbs = anything but standard screw base CFLs
Sockets per Fixture Type, Household
Surface Mount or HangingRecessed Can
Table or Floor Lamp
Fixture Type
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
n=1488
24.86
n=1488
6.81
n=1488
6.43
• 18% of sockets are in recessed cans
• “Surface mount or hanging” fixtures and “table or floor lamps” may also require specialty bulbs
Saturation per Fixture Type, Household
Surface Mount or HangingRecessed Can
Table or Floor Lamp
Fixture Type
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
n=1481
0.18
n=942
0.22
n=1412
0.27
• Recessed can fixtures had saturation levels of 22%
• Saturation levels for sockets requiring specialty bulbs could not be calculated through this study
Sockets per Control Type, Household
On-Off Dimmer Sensor 3-Way
Control Type
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
n=1488
30.37n=1488
4.89
n=1488
1.04n=1488
1.71
• 20% of sockets are controlled by either dimmer, sensor or 3-way switches
• Specialty bulbs may be required to function with these controls
Sockets per Control Type, Dining Room
On-Off Dimmer Sensor 3-Way
Control Type
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
n=1164
1.97
n=1164
1.66
n=1164
0.02n=1164
0.06
• High energy use, low saturation room
• 45% of sockets controlled by dimmers
• Over 25% of household dimmer-sockets are located in the dining room
WHERE WE GO FROM HERE
38
Utility Collaboration
39
• Research– Lighting Research
– CFL Saturation Update– Other Research
– Other Programs
• Marketing
• Program Design/Delivery
• Product Development– Specialty Bulbs– Other
• Other?