publication of nasarawa state university, keffipatnsukjournal.net/vol8no2/p9.pdf · (2008) reported...

Effect of Commercial Banks’ Loan On Agricultural Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) In Nigeria From 1981 To 2007

Ogbanje, E. C.1*; Yahaya, M.A.2; and Kolawole, F3. 1 Department of Agribusiness, [email protected]; +2348185281097, +2348036350197

2 Department of Agricultural Extension and Communication, +2348036588444; [email protected]; 3 Department of Business Administration,

123 University of Agriculture, P.M.B. 2373, Makurdi * Corresponding Author ([email protected]); +2348036350197

Abstract The study examined the effect of commercial banks’ loan on the agricultural sector in Nigeria from 1981 to 2007. Growth in agricultural sector was expressed in terms of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (N million). Secondary data for the study were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Findings revealed that commercial banks’ loan (N million) to the agricultural sector increased substantially from N590.6 in 1981 to N4,221.4 in 1990, a 614.76 percent increase. From 1991, the loan stock rose from N5,012.7 to N146,504.5 in 2000, representing an increase of 2822.67 percent. There was, however, a sharp decline in loan stock from N200,856.2 in 2001 to N149,578.9 in 2007. Over the period of study, agricultural GDP showed declining growth rate. Nevertheless, agricultural GDP grew from N84,428.5 in 1981 to N267,051.7 in 2007. The ordinary least square method, with lagged dependent variable, revealed that commercial banks’ loan significantly and positively (0.46) affected agricultural GDP at 0.01 level of probability. Hence, commercial banks’ loan has contributed significantly to agricultural development in Nigeria. They should sustain their loan facilities to the agricultural sector, especially to small scale farmers and marketers to make the result more meaningful. Stakeholders in agricultural development should endeavour to stabilize and increase the growth rate of agricultural GDP in Nigeria. Keywords: Commercial Banks, loan, agricultural sector, growth, agricultural Gross Domestic Product, Nigeria.

Introduction

Nigeria is endowed with abundant natural resources. According to Ajakaiye (1993), arable land constitutes about 75 percent of her total land resources. Matthew (2008) reported that the country has fresh water sources covering 68 million hectares, 960 km of coastline, and an ecological diversity of crop and livestock, forestry and fishery products.

Nigeria’s agricultural sector has a lot of potentials. As reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (2007), sectoral analysis of labour force employment as at 1999 gave 70 percent to agriculture. In the report of the, total working population by economic activity, agricultural sector accounted for 59.49 percent (2003), 59.26 percent (2004), 58.64 percent (2005), 58.64 percent (2006), and 57.89 percent (2007).

PAT December, 2012; 8 (2): 88-100 ISSN: 0794-5213

Online copy available at

www.patnsukjournal.net/currentissue Publication of Nasarawa State University, Keffi

Another potential of the agricultural sector is reflected in the producer prices of staple food in Nigeria. The farm gate price (N/Kg) of maize increased from N 22.03 in 2004 to N58.16 in 2007; millet, sorghum and rice (paddy) also gained prices from N20.15, N19.00 and N27.50 in 2004 to N52.75, N55.17 and N41.00 respectively in 2007. Beans and yam also gained prices from N23.55 and N21.59 in 2004 to N67.84 and N54.00 in 2007 respectively (National Bureau of Statistics, 2007). This price analysis shows the rising revenue profile of the sector, albeit responsiveness to inflation. In spite of the strategic relevance of agriculture to Nigeria’s economy, the sector has suffered series of neglect, with attendant consequences.

According to von Grebmer (2001), agricultural and food production are bedeviled by enormous challenges. The most important of these challenges is poverty. Poverty is a state of deprivation. According to Alegieuno and Attah (2005), poverty encompasses lack of money or material resources, lack of access to economic and social opportunities, sub-optimal utilisation of basic needs like good food, education, and others, due to some inhibitive economic forces.

Attesting to the growing incidence and depth of poverty in the country (Okunmadewa et al., 2005), Apata (2010) noted that the poverty situation in Nigeria presents a paradox considering the vast human and physical resources that the country is endowed with. Within Sub-Saharan regions, where majority of the population depends on agriculture for food and income as in Nigeria, poverty is largely a rural phenomenon with an average of 62% to 75% of the population living on less than a dollar a day (Pinstrup-Anderson et al., 2001).

The rural areas are blessed with abundant natural resources. They are the hubs of agricultural activities such as farming, forestry, fishing, and livestock rearing which collectively constitute a basic sector of rural economy. Majority of the rural farmers carry out agricultural activities at subsistent level using crude implements and unscientific methods which are characterized with low yield. These rural small scale farmers, Asogwa et al. (2007) maintained, belong to the poorest segment of the population and therefore cannot invest much on their farms. According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (2009), the neglect of rural infrastructure affects the profitability of agricultural production, and that limited accessibility cuts small scale farmers off from sources of inputs, equipment and new technology. Yet, these farmers account for about 90 percent of the food needs of the entire country (Ekpo and Olaniyi, 1995).

Matthew (2008) indicated that in spite of Nigeria’s impressive magnitude of the deposit of primary resources for effective agricultural activities, as well as numerous potentials, the sector has continuously stagnated in terms of diminishing productivity. Central Bank of Nigeria (2006) revealed that, as from the early 1970s, the contribution

PAT 2012; 8 (2): 88-100 ISSN: 0794-5213; Ogbanje et al: Effect of Commercial Banks’ Loan ….… 89

of agriculture to GDP began to decline from over 60 percent to less than 26 percent by 2003.

The utter neglect of the agricultural sector is best captured in the findings of Sanni (2006) that the contribution of agriculture to total export trade remained as low as 4.0 percent from 1998 to 2004. Decline in agricultural production in Nigeria was orchestrated largely by the oil boom of the 1970s. The boom in the oil sector caused distortion in the labour market. This distortion in turn produced adverse effects on the production levels of both food and cash crops. The Nations Encyclopedia (2010) noted that Nigerian government, over the years, paid low prices for the domestic market so as to satisfy urban demands for cheap basic food products. But this policy progressively made agriculture unattractive. As a result, rural-urban migration was heightened. These developments worsened the existing low productivity, both per unit of land (yield) and per worker (per capita).

Other causative factors of low agricultural productivity include inadequate technology, drought, poor transportation and infrastructure, and trade restrictions (Nations Encyclopedia, 2010); lack of agricultural manpower or inadequate extension manpower (Ozowa, 1995); inconsistent, poorly conceived and paternalistic top-down government policies (Okoye, 1995). The implication of this declining productivity is that, agricultural sector could no longer provide decent employment, food and income for those engaged in agricultural production.

Onuk et al. (2009) observed that incidences of low income and poor agricultural productivity are interwoven. As such, the need for external fund for agricultural development is indispensable. It was in recognition of this credit need that the Federal Government of Nigeria and foreign agencies have, over the years, developed policy instruments aimed at making technical assistance and credit facilities available to farmers.

Capital refers to cash and other man-made farm assets that are required to carry out production. Sheffrin and Sullivan (2003) and Nordhaus and Samuelson (2004) extended the meaning of capital to include financial capital raised to operated and expand a business, or the outcome of total investment. Therefore, financial capital is the amount of money which an entrepreneur invested in a firm. In other words, financial capital is the net worth of a business or the difference between the assets and liabilities of a firm (Arene, 2002). Capital is usually accumulated through savings and investment. But, in developing countries where national income is generally low, investment and saving are also low (Brealey and Myers, 2003; Adam and Agba, 2006; Eboreime, 2008; Oruonye and Musa, 2012). This translates to low productivity, output and income. It has been argued that the abundance of labour in Sub-Saharan Africa notwithstanding, agricultural output remains limited by capital (Oruonye and Musa, 2012).


According to Onyebinama (2007), the transformation of smallholder agriculture in Nigeria from subsistence to market orientation requires the injection of more capital. This is agreeable because farmers need financial capital to acquire real capital (plant, machinery, implement, etc), working capital goods (seeds, cuttings, breeding stock, etc) and manufactured goods (fertilizer, pesticide, etc). Where capital accumulation is elusive, investors, and farmers alike, resort to credit (Jhingan, 2003; Lagerkvist, Larsen & Olson, 2006).

Small-scale farmers have impeded access to credit facilities. Mohammed (2009) attributed this impedance largely to the inability of small scale farmers to meet up with collateral requirement, among others. In other to mitigate this constraint, the ACGSF was established to guarantee loans to farmers. As at 2006, loans worth N14.9 billion have been advanced to 497,692 beneficiaries (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2007).

Worldwide, the banking sector has provided the much-needed capital, particularly finance or loans to kick-start or sustain development. The banking sector constitutes a business that keeps money for individuals, people or companies, exchange currencies, make loans, and offers other financial services. Nigerian banks have extended loans to various sectors of the economy in order to sustain growth and development over a long period.

Statistics from the bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (2008) showed that banks’ loans in this direction come from either merchant banks or commercial banks. Loans from the commercial banks are classified into four sectors namely production, general commerce, services, and others. The production sector includes agriculture, forestry, and fishery; manufacturing; mining and quarrying; and real estate and construction.

Whichever the types of loans, which banks offer to individual and companies, the central purpose is to encourage business development. For the agricultural sector, the need cannot be overemphasized. This is because agriculture unarguably remains the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy in terms of employment and food production. The growth of the agricultural sector can be expressed in terms of index of agricultural production, productivity or its Gross Domestic Product. Agricultural Gross Domestic Product is the value of agricultural production, following Arene and Okpukpara (2006) that Gross Domestic Product is the total value of output resulting from all productive activities within the domestic economy.

Several works have been done on Nigeria’s banking sector. Most of them focused on recapitalization or reform especially the consolidation policy orchestrated by the then Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Charles Soludo. In like manner, several works have been done on the agricultural sector ranging from productivity, efficiency of resource use for various crops to analyses of the performance of government agencies whose major aim is to revitalize the sector.


For instance, Ogbanje et al. (2010) examined the effect of budgetary allocations to agricultural sector on agricultural productivity in Nigeria from 1977 to 2007. The study revealed that budgetary allocation to agricultural sector accounted for 33.9 percent of the variations in the index of agricultural production. Also, Ogbanje et al. (2010) evaluated the fate of Nigeria’s agricultural sector in relation to foreign direct investment from 1970 to 2007. They found that out of seven sectors analysed, the agricultural sector got the least mean net foreign investment (N553.6132). They also found that foreign direct investment had positive and significant relationship (0.879) with Nigeria’s agricultural sector. However, there is dearth of literature on the effect of commercial banks’ loans on the growth of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. It was an attempt to fill the research gap that this study was designed to address the following research questions: how much loan has Nigerian banks granted to the agricultural sector since recapitalization? How has the agricultural sector of the economy performed?

The specific objectives were to: i. analyse total commercial loan granted by Nigerian banks to the agricultural

sector; and ii. examine the growth of Nigeria’s agricultural sector over time.

It was hypothesized that commercial banks’ loans have no significant effect on the growth of agricultural sector in Nigeria. Methodology

The study covers the entire Nigerian economy. Nigeria has total land area of 923,768 km2, three-quarters of which are arable. It is located on the west coast of Africa and lies between latitude 4oN and 14oN and longitude 3oE and 15oE of the meridian. The country is bordered on the west by the Republic of Benin, on the north by Niger Republic, in the east by the Republics of Chad and Cameroun, and in the south by the Gulf of Guinea (Ajakaiye, 1993; Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2008). The country has a total population of 140,431,790 according to 2006 national population census (National Population Commission, 2009).

The study utilised data from secondary source. The data were obtained from the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data for the study. Descriptive statistics such as simple percentage was used to attain specific objectives i and ii of the study. Inferential statistics such as the ordinary least square method, which included the lagged form of the explanatory variable in the model, was used to test the hypothesis for the study. The value of Durbin-Watson statistic was also computed to detect the presence or otherwise of autocorrelation of residuals (prediction errors) from the regression analysis.

The formula for ordinary least square method is:


� � � � �� + U Where, xt-1 = lagged commercial banks’ loans to agricultural sector (N million) y = nominal agricultural Gross Domestic Product (N million) α = intercept on y-axis, representing available agricultural Gross Domestic Product (N

million) β = coefficient of explanatory, indicating the rate of change in nominal agricultural

Gross Domestic Product (N million) with respect to change commercial banks’ loans to agricultural sector (N million)

U = Stochastic terms The specification of Durbin-Watson statistic (d): where et is the residual

associated with the observation at time t, then the test statistic is

where T is the number of observations. Since d is approximately equal to 2(1 − r), where r is the sample autocorrelation of the residuals, d = 2 indicates no autocorrelation. The value of d always lies between 0 and 4. If the Durbin–Watson statistic is substantially less than 2, there is evidence of positive serial correlation. As a rough rule of thumb, if Durbin–Watson is less than 1.0, there may be cause for alarm. Small values of d indicate successive error terms are, on average, close in value to one another, or positively correlated (Durbin and Watson, 1971; Gujarati, 1995). Results and Discussion Commercial Banks’ Loans to the Agricultural Sector

The analysis of the commercial banks’ loans to the agricultural sector is presented in Table 1. Findings showed that commercial banks’ loan to agricultural sector rose from N590.6 million in 1981 to N4, 221.4 million in 1990. This represents 614.76 percent increase in 10 years. The increase is desirable so as to increase capital injection into the sector to facilitate agricultural production to feed the increasing population of Nigerians.

Furthermore, commercial loans to the sector rose from N5,012.7 million in 1991 to N146,504.5 million in 2000, representing a tremendous increase of 2,822.67 percent in another 10 years. By 2007, commercial loans to agricultural sector increased to N149,578.9 million. This analysis revealed that commercial banks in Nigeria practically expressed great concern for the development of agricultural development, since credit unavailability is one of the major constraints to agricultural development in Nigeria.


Table 1: Commercial Banks’ Loans To The Agricultural Sector Year Total Commercial Loans

(N million) Percentage change in

Commercial loans 1981 590.6 - 1982 786.6 - 1983 940.4 - 1984 1052.1 - 1985 1310.2 - 1986 1830.3 - 1987 2427.1 - 1988 3066.7 - 1989 3470.5 - 1990 4221.4 614.76 1991 5012.7 - 1992 6978.9 - 1993 10753.0 - 1994 17888.8 - 1995 25278.7 - 1996 33264.1 - 1997 27939.3 - 1998 27180.7 - 1999 118518.3 - 2000 146504.5 2822.67 2001 200856.2 - 2002 227617.6 - 2003 242185.7 - 2004 261558.6 - 2005 262005.5 - 2006 239752.3 - 2007 149578.9 (25.53)

Source: CBN Bulletin (2008). Figure in parenthesis represents percentage decrease Agricultural Gross Domestic Product

Analysis of agricultural Gross Domestic Product is presented in Table 2. Findings revealed that agricultural sector GDP in Nigeria showed slow growth at a declining rate over time. In 1981, it was N84,428.50. The GDP grew by 47.67 percent to N124,674.40 in 1990. By 2000, Nigeria’s agricultural GDP was N175,876.60, representing a growth rate of 35.70 percent, which is lower than the growth rate in the previous ten years. In 2007, agricultural GDP rose to N267,051.70, representing a growth rate of 46.20 percent. The graphical representation of the growth of commercial banks’ loan to the agricultural sector and agricultural Gross Domestic Product is presented in Figure 1.

This is in line with Matthew (2008)’s report on the declining productivity of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, an indication of persistent neglect by government. In


addition, Asogwa et al. (2007) reported that Nigerian farmers belong to the poorest segment of the society and so cannot save and invest in their agricultural enterprises. With a fast growing population, a declining growth rate of the agricultural sector is undesirable. This is because the well-being of the farmers is on the decline, a situation that can discourage production and result in food insecurity.

Effect of Commercial Banks’ Loan on Agricultural Gross Domestic Product

The ordinary least square result of the effect of commercial banks’ loan on agricultural Gross Domestic Product is presented in Table 3. Simple linear regression, with lagged dependent variable, was used to test the hypothesis. The result showed that commercial banks’ loan had positive effect on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (0.46), the t-ratio (10.54) of which is significant at 0.01 level of probability. This implied that a 1 percent increase in commercial banks’ loan to agricultural sector leads to 46 percent increase in agricultural Gross Domestic Product.

The constant of the model is 118,593.25 indicating available agricultural Gross Domestic Product in the absence of commercial banks loan, indicating among other things, that agricultural Gross Domestic Product does not depend entirely on commercial banks loan. Similarly, the coefficient of determination (R2) is 90.7 percent

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

year 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Commercial

banks

loan

&

Agric

GDP

(

Nm)

Years

Figure 1: Commercial Banks to Agricultural Sector and Agricultural GDP in Nigeria, 1981-2007

cb loan

agdp


indicating that commercial banks’ loan accounted for 90.7 percent of the variations in agricultural Gross Domestic Product. The value of Durbin-Watson statistic for the analysis was 0.318, indicating the presence of autocorrelation of prediction errors. The result also implied that successive error terms are, on average, close in value to one another, or positively correlated Table 2: Agricultural GDP

Year Agricultural GDP (N million) Percentage change in 10-year period

1981 84428.5 -

1982 86494.2 -

1983 85283.6 -

1984 80978.7 -

1985 96783.8 -

1986 106676.3 -

1987 102759.7 -

1988 113497.7 -

1989 119486.2 -

1990 124674.4 47.67

1991 129605.8 -

1992 132699.2 -

1993 135185.2 -

1994 138753.6 -

1995 143706.3 -

1996 149512 -

1997 155934.8 -

1998 162248.8 -

1999 170813.9 -

2000 175876.6 35.70

2001 182660 -

2002 190369.1 -

2003 203012.6 -

2004 216208.5 -

2005 231463.6 -

2006 248599 -

2007 267051.7 46.20 Source: CBN Bulletin (2008).


Table 3: Effect of Commercial Banks’ Loan on And Agricultural Gross Domestic Product Model Coefficient Standard error t-ratio P-value Constant 118593.25 5343.13 22.20* 0.000 Commercial banks’ loans 0.46 0.04 10.54* 0.00 R2 = 0.822; Adjusted R2 = 0.815. F-statistic = 111.03; Significance of F-statistic = 0.000 * t-ratio is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) Durbin-Watson statistic = 0.318 Conclusion and Recommendat ions

The study examined the relationship between banking sector commercial loans and agricultural development in Nigeria from 1981 to 2007. Within the first ten years of the period under review, there was substantial increase in commercial banks’ loans to the agricultural sector. Over the rest of the period, commercial banks’ loans more than tripled. Thus, commercial banks demonstrated great concern for growth in the agricultural sector in Nigeria.

The growth rate in agricultural GDP was far from being commensurate. Rather than increasing proportionately with the volume of loans from the commercial banks, the growth rate was at a declining rate. Nevertheless, the ordinary least square method showed that commercial banks’ loan to the agricultural sector significantly and positively affected agricultural Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria.

Based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations have been put forward: 1. Commercial banks should increase loan facilities to the agricultural sector to

sustain food production for the teeming population of Nigeria; 2. The loan should be targeted at small-scale farmers and marketers for more

meaningful results; and 3. Stakeholders in Nigerian agricultural sector should make conscious efforts

towards sustainable increase in the value of agricultural output.

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