public procurement and public budgets – management and transparency aleš michl portfolio...

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Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist [email protected] www.rb.cz/modelove-portfolio September 2011

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Page 1: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency 

Aleš MichlPortfolio [email protected]/modelove-portfolioSeptember 2011

Page 2: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Prague – Changchun7 653 km

Page 3: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

80’s in Changchun

Page 4: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Now!

Page 5: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

China was the biggest economy in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years

Page 6: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

China failed to keep pace with the Europe/US in the Industrial Revolution

Source: Paul Kennedy/The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1987.

Page 7: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

CEO Marchionne: “Fiat would perform better without its loss-making Italian plants”

Page 8: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Advanced Economies: Central Government Public Debts (in % of GDP)

Source: Reinhart/Sbrancia: The Liquidation of Government Debt, Working Paper NBER, March 2011. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16893.pdf

World War 2

NOW

Page 9: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Czech republic Global Competitiveness Report 2011

Source: World Economic Forum, 2011

Page 10: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Czech republic Unit Labor Cost indicators by economic activity

Source: OECD

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q2

-20

07

Q3

-20

07

Q4

-20

07

Q1

-20

08

Q2

-20

08

Q3

-20

08

Q4

-20

08

Q1

-20

09

Q2

-20

09

Q3

-20

09

Q4

-20

09

Q1

-20

10

Q2

-20

10

Q3

-20

10

Q4

-20

10

Unit Labor Cost - Total Economy (2005=100)

Unit Labor Cost - Industry (2005=100)

Unit Labor Cost - Construction (2005=100)

Page 11: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

The UK government's new transparency intitiatives

A letter from PM David Cameron to Government departments on plans to open up Government data (31 May 2010):

“New items of central government spending over £25,000 to be published online from November 2010.”

“All new central government contracts to be published in

full from January 2011.”

“New items of local government spending over £500 to be published on a council-by-council basis from January 2011.”

Source: http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/letter-to-government-departments-on-opening-up-data/

Page 12: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

If we fail to keep pace with China Industrial Revolution…

Page 13: Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist ales.michl@rb.cz  September

Disclaimer

All views, forecasts, and information, including investment recommendations and trading ideas, as well as any other information contained in this announcement is only for the purposes of information. It is non-binding and it represents the view of Raiffeisenbank. This announcement is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sale of any financial assets or other financial instrument. Prior to making any investment decision Raiffeisenbank recommends to get detailed information on the planned investment or transaction.

Raiffeisenbank elaborated this announcement with best professional care and in

good faith. However, it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its contents. Where the law permits, Raiffeisenbank and/or its employees may be engaged in any transaction or investment referred to in this announcement, as well as in any transaction or investment with the assets referred to in this announcement, or in related assets. Raiffeisenbank does not bear any liability for any damage or lost profit caused to any third parties through use of the information and data contained in this announcement.

The investment recommendations created by the Economic Research Team and

its employees, as well as the model portfolios, trading ideas, views, and forecasts, are only of a general character and intended for the public. They are not individualised or intended for specific parties in a specific financial situation, and they therefore do not constitute the service of investment consultancy as set forth in the Act 256/2004 Coll., on Capital Market Undertakings, as amended. For full information disclosure in accordance with the Decree 114/2006 Coll., on Fair Presentation of Investment Recommendations, see the Raiffeisenbank’s website, section Research – Disclosure, http://www.rb.cz/financni-trhy/analyzy/disclosure/