prospects and challenges for a successful 2010 census barbara everitt bryant lisa neidert december...
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PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2010 CENSUS
Barbara Everitt BryantLisa Neidert
December 10, 2009
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Overview
Scope of the Census
Challenges for the 2010 Census
Good News for the Census Bureau
The Goods: Looking at Data
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Differences between a large social survey and the Decennial Census
Size and Scope Planning cycle and procedures locked in 535 powerful micromanagers (Congress)
Questionnaire designers who never think it is too late to make changes (Vitter/Bennett and citizen question)
See the census as a jobs program (Schumer, et.al. who want NRFU jobs to go to long-term
unemployed)
What next????
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Challenges for the 2010 Census
Politics: Winners and Losers
Economy
Hard to Count populations
Media Environment
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Politics of the Census: Winners and Losers
Year Issue1789 Census is in the Constitution. Initially had checks and
balances. Population used for representation and taxation.
1860 Slave states vs Free States
1870 14th amendment – former slaves now counted as full persons
1911 House size is fixed at 435 – zero sum game now. One state’s gain is another state’s loss.
1913 16th amendment – Income tax. Taxes are no longer collected in proportion to population size.
1920 Rural vs Urban. Only census to never be used for re-apportionment.
1929 Permanent Apportionment Act. Established a process to make sure apportionment would always take place
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Politics of the Census:Winners and LosersYear Issue
1941 Congress permanently adopted “Method of Equal Proportions” to determine apportionment.
1968 Federal Housing Act includes revenue sharing to local governments. Population counts in census are critical.
1980+ 1) Undercount; 2) Which populations should be included (non-citizens, overseas population); 3) Where to count prisoners
1990 Statistical adjustment for undercount
2000 Statistical adjustment for non-response; Supreme Court ruled against this in June 1999.
Current Citizenship issue again; Size of the House – The per capita district size ranges from 495,304 (WY) to 905,316 (MT).
Future ????????????????
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House Size by Region: 1900 – 2000: A Power Shift to the South and West
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1900 1950 2000
Northeast /MidwestSouth / West
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Winners and Losers: 1900 – 2000Selected States
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
CA
TX
FL
MO
PA
NY
Number of House Seats
190019502000
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Recent/Future Shifts in Power
1990 2000 2010**
Northeast -7 -5 -4
Midwest -8 -5 -7
South +7 +5 +8
West +8 +5 +3
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2010 Projections
Projections based on December 2008 data Will update shortly Growth assumption
Winners (+1) FL, GA, NV, OR, SC, UT (+2) AZ (+4) TX
Losers (-1) IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NY, PA (-2) OH
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Census Challenges: Economy
Housing Vacancies/Foreclosures Non-response follow up (NRFU) to empty
houses increases costs Doubled-up families
Everyone needs to understand residence rules Outreach
States participation will be low due to financial constraints Washtenaw county [no resources for this]
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Hard to Count: Immigrants – mostly Hispanics
Rapid growth of undocumented population from 1990 – 2006 4% of population; 5.4% of labor force 76% Hispanic; 11% Asian
Varies by state 1990 (42% in CA); 2008 (22% in CA)
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Distribution of Undocumented Population[from Pew Hispanic]
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Hard to Count - Hispanics
Mistrust/fear and language Multi-lingual questionnaires and help centers Won’t solve fear/mistrust issue
Hispanic minister calling for boycott to jumpstart immigration reform Boycott would help Michigan and other low-
Hispanic states in re-apportionment Would not be helpful for allocation of federal
funds
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Media Environment
Big Media is fading in influence How to reach folks who only use alternative
media (or none)? Potential for mis-information in blogosphere Blogs
http://blogs.census.gov/2010census/ http://censusprojectblog.org/
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Good News for Census 2010
Short Form Census Long-form questions are part of the American
Community Survey (ACS) This is Leslie Kish’s rolling census
Technology
Outreach
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Good News: Short-Form
10 questions 10 minutes
No long-form negativity in the news Why are they asking this?
Quotes George Bush (the younger) Michelle Bachman from England
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Good News: Technology
Second Mailing 1990: Not even on Census Bureau radar
First question Barbara Bryant asked 2000: Technology not quite there
Real-time return data Can deploy advertising/people to problem areas
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Good News: Outreach
Advertising Campaign Second census to have a real advertising budget Look for an ad in the Super Bowl
Hard to Count (HTC) campaign What do you think predicts HTC? Who are the HTC in Ann Arbor? ISR/UM project to increase mail response
Not “one size fits all” effort Outreach specialists decide what works best for
their turf
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Aging in Place
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Race: The Past
Race Hispanic
1950 1970 1990 2008
White 87.7 84.3 76.4 65.9
Black 10.0 11.0 11.9 12.2
Asian 0.2 0.7 2.8 4.5
Hispanic 2.2 3.9 8.9 15.5
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Majority/Minority States: 2008
Total population HI, NM, CA, TX Different combinations across states
School age population (<18) HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MS, GA
Pre-kindergarten (0-5) HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MD, GA, DE, NY
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Marriage and Family Formation
Measure 1950 1970 1990 2008
Median age at marriage (women)
20.3 20.8 23.9 26.0
Never married, 15+ (women)
18.0 20.5 23.1 28.1
% currently divorced (women)
2.5 4.0 9.4 11.9
Age at first birth 22.5 21.4 24.2 25.0
% non-marital births 4.0 10.7 28.0 40.0
One person households 20.2 22.8 22.1 28.9
Husband/wife families 77.0 69.0 55.7 49.2
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Labor Force Participation