Proposed Project –Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”“Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”

Project MotivationProject Motivation (from (from NTHMP Strategic Plan 2009-2013)

• NTHMP Performance Metrics: “… support a research effort to develop U.S. tsunami risk

assessment methodologies” to “… develop quantitative tsunami hazard analysis

techniques including source determination and probability of occurrence” and

“determine applicability of economic and loss estimation tools (e.g. HAZUS) by 2010”

• NTHMP Risk Definition: ‘‘. . . the product of the probability of the occurrence of a tsunami

(i.e., the ‘‘hazard’’) times the loss of property and life due to the tsunami”

Study ContextStudy Context

• • Nation needs multiple approaches for tsunami risk analysisNation needs multiple approaches for tsunami risk analysis

(e.g., life safety, economic impacts, livelihood impacts, natural resources, infrastructure (e.g., life safety, economic impacts, livelihood impacts, natural resources, infrastructure resilience, etc.)resilience, etc.)

• • Project focuses on life safety aspects of risk Project focuses on life safety aspects of risk (e.g., evacuation potential)(e.g., evacuation potential)

• • First steps towards one tool in a national toolbox of tsunami risk analysisFirst steps towards one tool in a national toolbox of tsunami risk analysis

• • Begins research dialogue on needed tools and approaches in national toolboxBegins research dialogue on needed tools and approaches in national toolbox

+

500-yr Max Height100-yr Max Height

Seaside, OR

III. Socioeconomic and III. Socioeconomic and Evacuation Metrics Evacuation Metrics (Nate Wood, USGS)

Land Cover Residents Employees

Ocean Shores, WA

Goal: Improve understanding and metrics of societal risk to tsunamis

Objectives:• Integrate probabilistic hazard models, socioeconomic asset distributions, evacuation time

models, and casualty loss models• Examine life safety aspects of HAZUS tool (e.g., forces on people and buildings)

Proposed Project –Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”“Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”

II. Tsunami Hazard Modeling II. Tsunami Hazard Modeling (Frank González, UW/ESS)

I.I. Community Engagement Community Engagement (George Crawford, SRC)

Study Components:

Proposed Project –Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”“Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”

Proposed Study Areas and Timeline:

• 2010 – Long Beach Peninsula – to leverage “Tsunami Safe Haven” project• 2011 – Ocean Shores, WA

Study Phases and ProductsRelevance to Population

Relevance to Structures

I. Initial Community Engagement - Project scoping and issue identification

- Issue identification - Issue identification

II. Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Exceedance values for 100- and 500-year event - Inundation depth, current speed, etc. - Impact Forces, e.g., momentum flux, etc…

- Evacuation potential- Potential casualty

zones

- Identifies existing structures at risk

- Siting, type, and cost of new structures

III. Socio-Economic Metrics - Asset distribution and evacuation potential

- Evacuation issues- Education and training needs

- Siting, type, and cost of new structures

IV. Risk Analyses - Risk of fatalities - Risk of destruction

V. Community Engagement - Feedback, dissemination, use of results

- Mitigation planning- Response planning- Outreach planning

- Urban Planning- Mitigation Planning

Proposed Project –Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”“Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis”

References

I. Community Engagement - Wood, N., Good, J., and Goodwin, B., 2002, Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor

community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: integrating technical expert and stakeholder input,Natural Hazards Review, 3 (4), 148-157

II. Tsunami Hazard Modeling - González, F.I., et al. (2009): Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: The Seaside, Oregon,

Pilot Project, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C11023, doi:10.1029/2008JC005132

- Lukkunaprasit, P., et al. (2009): Experimental Verification of FEMA P646 Tsunami Loading, Journal of Disaster ResearchVol.4No.6, pp. 1-9.

III. Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Evacuation Potential - Sleeter, R., and Wood, N., 2006, Estimating daytime and nighttime population density for coastal

communities in Oregon: Proceedings of the Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, Annual Conference, Vancouver, BC, September 26-29, 2006, 8 p

- Wood, N., Burton, C., and Cutter, S., 2010, Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Natural Hazards, 52(2), 369-389

- Wood, N., and Soulard, C., 2008, Variations in community exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5004, 34 p.

- Yeh, H., in press, Gender and Age Factors in Tsunami Casualties (2010): Natural Hazards Review