promoting institutional differentiation with scenario planning: the case of paraguay - gerrit de...
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Marginson (2008): • “the global research university is the leading idea”
Thrift (2012): • “What mix of higher-education institutions do we want?”
• “What can be done to enhance the status of non-academic
tertiary education?”
Martínez Acosta (2011)• “La Universidad Nacional de Caaguazú será una universidad de
investigación”
changes in the external environment:• resources
• regulation
changes in the paradigm of the university• research orientation
• professional profile
to make sense of developments
to enhance the anticipatory capacity of the
university
and last but not least:
to organize continuous reflection within the
organization on how to navigate the
institutional environment
Germany‟s Excellence Initiative injected
$2.3-billion into some 40 universities
but failed to create a more diverse higher-
education sector and produced few lasting
changes at universities (WZBrief Bildung,
June 2012)
“academic autonomy acts as a barrier”
exceptions: e.g. University of Karlsruhe
academic autonomy may give rise to
different outcomes:• fragmented research interests
• top-research groups
• high level professional schools
• regionally focussed universities, etcetera
not all of which will be sustainable
scenario planning will be enriched by the
discussion of paradigms
1. uncover the paradigms of the university
2. develop scenarios with dominant uncertainties
3. confront the paradigms with the scenarios
4. organize strategic conversations in a sustainable
way
landlocked country
6,5 million inhabitants
GDP $ 23,9 million
primary completion 94%
secondary enrollment 67%
220.000 university
students, of which 73% in
private – mainly for profit –
unis
quality control ineffective
total spending per student:• public sector $ 2400/year
• private sector $ 800 / year
[sources World Bank 2011, CONACYT 2012]
Brazil
Bolivia
1. communication strategy2. selection of scenario team3. development paradigms by scenario team
a. interviews of stakeholders
b. websurvey of university leaders
c. feed back from selected university leaders
4. development dominant uncertainties and future scenarios by scenario team
5. creation of scenario „stories‟
6. confrontation paradigms with scenario stories
7. development of strategic options for each
paradigm
8. discussion of strategic options with groups of
university leaders
9. informal leadership of paradigm groups comes
into existence
10. development of shared strategic agendas
all unis aim for default
status: global research
uni
lack of transparency
each tub on its own
bottom
limited interest in
cooperation with
business and industry
differentiation of uni
profiles has started
development of joint
program of indicators
groups of unis
cooperate in various
fields
joint project to develop
links with stake holders
political upheavals (general elections)
formation of a group of „innovating
universities‟
sustainment the strategic discourse
development of human resources
effective communication with general
public
more background information• paper “Promoting Institutional Differentiation with
Scenario Planning. The case of Paraguay”
• website: “innovatinguniversities.nl”
• mail: [email protected]