Click to edit Master title style

Projecting GHG emissions & removals

New Zealand

Leonard Brown

New Zealand Climate Change Office

Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004

Click to edit Master title styleInstitutional arrangements

(for inventory & projections)

Ministry of Economic DevelopmentEnergy & Industrial Processes

emissions

Ministry of Agriculture and ForestryAgriculture emissions

Forestry removals & emissions

Ministry for the EnvironmentWaste emissions

New Zealand Climate Change Office

Agr 49.2%

IP4.7%

Energy 42.8%

Waste 3.2%

Click to edit Master title styleEnergy Sector

Projected energy

emissions

Emission factors

Energy quantity

model

National GHG

Inventory

Energy prices

Socio-economic

GDP

Population

RDI

Energy

efficiency

Price

measures

“With additional measures”

scenarios

“With measures”

scenarios

GDP

3.5%

GDP

1.5%

GDP

2.5%

Click to edit Master title styleEnergy and Industrial Process CO2 Emissions: BAU and Energy Efficiency

Measures

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%19

90

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Calendar Years

Per

cen

tag

e In

crea

se i

n E

mis

sio

ns

Rel

ativ

e to

199

0

BAU 1% Energy Efficiency1% and 1.5% Energy Efficiency Actual

Click to edit Master title style• Animals by species: beef, sheep, dairy, deer - PRSM

• Productivity & emissions per animal.

• Forecast of nitrogen fertiliser usage.

Agriculture

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

0 5 10 15 20

Year since 1990

N fe

rtili

ser u

sed

(ton

nes

N)• Policies & Measures

•Environmental N constraints

•Price measures (C)

•Research

$NZ

Prices

Weather

Carrying capacity

Livestock

data

Click to edit Master title styleAgriculture improvements•General model development: data quality and equations

•Changes in input parameters over time, e.g. forage quality

•Sensitivity analysis and scenario building

•Improved estimation carrying capacity estimate

•Improved stock unit estimation by livestock class

Click to edit Master title styleForestryKey drivers

•Area planted in Kyoto forests to date

•Scenarios of future new forest planting

•Carbon accumulation models

•Assumed rotation length

•Deforestation

10000 ha

10% deforestation

20000 ha

5% deforestation

30000 ha

0% deforestation

planting and Kyoto deforestation

scenarios

Click to edit Master title styleForestry improvements

•Modelling Capability and FlexibilityImprove modelling – scenarios, vary multiple parameters

•New Zealand Carbon Accounting SystemRefine & validate the accuracy of plantings since 1990

Refine and spatialise growth rates of planted forest

Improve deforestation estimate

Improve estimate of carbon in all pools for all forest

Click to edit Master title styleCross-cutting issues• Transparency of methods, assumptions & data

UNFCCC, New Zealand industry, NZCCO

• Consistency of assumptions across sectorsGDP, population

• Uncertainty

Monte-Carlo method – PDF, inputs & correlations

• Validation & verificationassumptions, projected inputs, bias and uncertainty

• Long-term projections vs. inventory data and short-term windows