project to intercompare regional climate simulations climate change: a context for reflection on the...
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Change: A Context for Reflection on the
Responsibilities of the Faith Community
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
St Andrews Lutheran Church, 12 November 2006
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future
climate change “Dangerous anthropogenic inter-
ference with the climate system”? “Climate surprises” Implications for the Faith Community
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Natural cycles
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
2040
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)
2100
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)
2100
?
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Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne or are soaked up by the ocean and land. Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. “Effective” forcing accounts for “efficacy” of the forcing mechanism
Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
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Global mean surface temperature change based on surface air measurements over land and SSTs over ocean Source: Update of Hansen et al., JGR, 106, 23947, 2001; Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate, 7, 1994; Rayner et al., JGR, 108, 2003.
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible
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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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(B) Ocean heat gain in the top 750 m of world ocean.
Source: Hansen et al., Science, 308, 1431, 2005.
(A) Net Radiation at top of atmosphere in climate simulations.
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Tropical Weather
Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
140-page synthesis report released in November 2004.
Main science report imminent (chapters available electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu).
Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the Arctic.
– Rising temperatures– Rising river flows– Declining snow cover– Increasing precipitation– Thawing permafrost– Diminishing late and river ice– Melting glaciers– Melting Greenland Ice Sheet– Retreating summer sea ice– Rising sea level– Ocean salinity changes
Species at risk include polar bears, seals, walruses, Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species of mosses and lichens
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor
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NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.
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Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
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Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Associated Climate Changes
Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the
day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
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Increasing Melt Area on Greenland
• 2002 all-time record melt area • Melting up to elevation of 2000 m• 16% increase from 1979 to 2002 70 meters thinning in 5 years
Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005. Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m
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http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Rawls and Brundtland:
Brundtland Report Concept of Sustainability:
“Institutions are sustainable when they effectively meet the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.”
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Ten Things You can do to Slow Global Warming*
Change a light Drive less Recycle more Check your tires Use less hot water Avoid products with a lot of packaging Adjust your thermostat Plant a tree Turn off electrical and electronic devices
* From “An Inconvenient Truth (www.climatecrisis.net)
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?
Faith community is joined across space and time – We have a legacy passed down for the last
two centuries– What legacy do we leave?
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?
Faith community is joined across space and time – We have a legacy passed down for the last
two centuries– What legacy do we leave?
How will future generations (those whose futures we are now constraining) view us and our stewardship of the planet?
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice– Inter-generational equity
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice– Inter-generational equity
From those to whom much has been given will much be expected
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice– Inter-generational equity
From those to whom much has been given will much be expected– Resources
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?
Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings
– International justice– Inter-generational equity
From those to whom much has been given will much be expected– Resources– Knowledge
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly: