MET 112

1

MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 15

Energy & Climate Change Mitigation

Dr. Eugene Cordero

Outline:Outline: Energy use Mitigation Kyoto Protocol Strategies

MET 112

3

Obviously, one of the main issues related to climate change is the burning of fossil fuels

Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change.

Energy and Climate Change

MET 112

4

MET 112

5

MET 112

6

Tons of CO2 emitted per person

MET 112

7

MET 112

8

MET 112

9

1. What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas?

2. What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning?

3. What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal?

4. If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy?

5. Where does most residential energy come from?

Questions

MET 112

10

What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas?

0.05 0.

10.

170.

61

0% 0%0%

100%1. 5%

2. 10%

3. 17%

4. 61%

MET 112

11

If you buy an electric car, what is the most likely energy source

Natura

l gas

Coal

Petro

leum

100%

0%0%

1. Natural gas

2. Coal

3. Petroleum

MET 112

13

Mitigation of climate changeMitigation of climate change

Mitigation: Mitigation: – Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative

environmental impacts. environmental impacts. Mitigation can include: Mitigation can include:

– avoiding the impact by not taking a certain avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; action;

– minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; magnitude of the action;

– rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environmentthe affected environment

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-

frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to

proceed in a sustainable manner’

MET 112

15

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers (SPM)Drafted by a team of 59Approved ‘sentence by sentence’by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters881 pages120 Lead Authors515 Contributing Authors4621 References quoted

MET 112

18

IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment Report

IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing

(cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence

on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001

– Climate is expected to continue to change in the future; though Climate is expected to continue to change in the future; though there are still many uncertaintiesthere are still many uncertainties

MET 112

20

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol A United Nations sponsored effort:A United Nations sponsored effort:

– Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels.

– The Protocol will go into force after The Protocol will go into force after 1.1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.2.2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse

gas emissions.gas emissions.– Current status:Current status:

156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO22.. US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of

COCO22 emitted) emitted) Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

MET 112

22

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

MET 112

23

MET 112

24

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks

MET 112

25

MET 112

26

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture

MET 112

27

MET 112

28

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy–

MET 112

29

MET 112

30

MET 112

32

MET 112

33

MET 112

34

MET 112

35

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’–

MET 112

36

MET 112

37

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’– Encourage ‘good practices’

MET 112

40

Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’– Encourage ‘good practices’– Cut GHG from aviation

MET 112

42

Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Articles of the Kyoto Protocol (II)(II)

Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

Countries can meet their commitments together

Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.

Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets

Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

MET 112

44

Kyoto TargetsKyoto Targets

Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990

Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).

Calculated as an average – over the five-year period of 2008-12.

Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs

MET 112

46

Kyoto Targets(2)Kyoto Targets(2)

National targets– European Union - 8% below 1990 levels– USA - 7% below 1990– Japan - 6% below 1990– Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)– Australia 8% over 1990 levels) – Developing countries (no target)

China, India etc.

MET 112

47

Kyoto Targets: Developing Kyoto Targets: Developing countriescountries

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:

1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases –

2. Per capita emissions in developing countries –

3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs.

MET 112

48

Kyoto Targets: Developing Kyoto Targets: Developing countriescountries

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:

1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – has originated in developed countries;

2. Per capita emissions in developing countries – are still relatively low;

3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs.

MET 112

49

Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may

purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.

This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.

Countries also receive carbon credits through

– –

MET 112

50

Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may

purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.

This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.

Example of Russia Countries also receive carbon credits through

– clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) – carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" things first are the people who live in America"

- President Bush- President Bush

Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?Economic burdenEconomic burdenNo limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)Protocol is not going to help muchProtocol is not going to help much

Solutions - government

Kyoto Protocol

California potential leader

MET 112

54

MET 112

55

Solutions - personal Transportation Home Food Consumption

www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint

MET 112

58

Solutions - Consumption

Question your consumption urges

Material versus service based economy

Buy products that are in line with your values

MET 112

59

MET 112

60

MET 112

61

MET 112

62

MET 112

63

Four R’s

1. Rethink

2. Reduce

3. Reuse

4. Recycle

MET 112

65

MET 112

67

The US should sign the Kyoto Protocol

1. Strongly Agree

2. Agree

3. Neutral

4. Disagree

5. Strongly Disagree

Government should act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions even if it means raising energy prices

20% 20% 20%20%20%1. Strongly Agree

2. Agree

3. Neutral

4. Disagree

5. Strongly Disagree

0 of 660 of 66

If you were going to help mitigate global warming, which change would you feel most comfortable making.

33% 33%33%1. Taking public

transport more

2. Paying more for gasoline (i.e.1 dollar per gallon)

3. Altering your food choices

0 of 660 of 66

MET 112

70

Global warming is under way?

20% 20% 20%20%20%1. Strongly Agree

2. Agree

3. Neutral

4. Disagree

5. Strongly Disagree

0 of 660 of 66

MET 112

71

Global warming will affect your life?

20% 20% 20%20%20%1. Strongly Agree

2. Agree

3. Neutral

4. Disagree

5. Strongly Disagree

0 of 660 of 66

Local/National Policies

What are local/national governments doing to reduce GHG emissions?

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

MET 112

74

Metr112: Main points

Let’s come up with the three most important points (i.e concepts or themes) covered in this course.

1.

2.

3.

MET 112

75

Summary

Over the last 100 years and especially over the last thirty-five years, the Earth climate has experienced a significant warming trend.

Current levels of greenhouse gases are higher than anytime over the last 400,000 years and likely longer.

Science is confident that humans are responsible for a majority of the warming observed over the last 50 years.

The Earth’s climate will continue to warm and this warming will place significant stress on social systems throughout the world.

Climate change mitigation is necessary to reduce negative impacts.