IVAN BLINKOV

Natural Hazard ManagementNatural Hazard Management

Project part-financed by the European Union

Workshop – SERM – South Europe Regional Meeting

Climate changes and Forest Fires, Skopje 9.04.2008

CONTENT:CONTENT:

�� Natural Hazards Natural Hazards –– definitiondefinition�� Overview of Natural disasters (world and MKD)Overview of Natural disasters (world and MKD)

�� Risk Risk –– theory ; Risk Assessmenttheory ; Risk Assessment

�� Natural Hazard Management Natural Hazard Management �� Basic approaches in NHMBasic approaches in NHM�� ““ForestersForesters”” in the system of NHMin the system of NHM

�� Climate changes and Natural hazardsClimate changes and Natural hazards

�� DesertificationDesertification

Natural event vs. Natural HazardNatural event vs. Natural Hazard

�� A A physical event,physical event, such as a volcanic eruption, that such as a volcanic eruption, that does not affect human beings is adoes not affect human beings is a natural natural phenomenonphenomenon but not a natural hazard ????.but not a natural hazard ????.

�� A natural phenomenon that occurs in a populated area A natural phenomenon that occurs in a populated area is ais a hazardous event. ??hazardous event. ??

�� A hazardous event that causes unacceptably large A hazardous event that causes unacceptably large numbers of fatalities and/or overwhelming property numbers of fatalities and/or overwhelming property damage is adamage is a natural disasternatural disaster ..

�� In areas where there are no human interests, natural In areas where there are no human interests, natural phenomena do not constitute hazards nor do they phenomena do not constitute hazards nor do they result in disasters ????result in disasters ????. .

HAZARDOUS NATURAL PHENOMENAHAZARDOUS NATURAL PHENOMENA

�� ATMOSPHERICATMOSPHERIC ––METEOROLOGICALMETEOROLOGICAL

�� Hailstorms, Hurricanes, Hailstorms, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Tropical storms Tornadoes, Tropical storms

�� LightningLightning�� Ice , FrozenIce , Frozen�� Drought Drought

�� HYDROLOGICHYDROLOGIC

�� Coastal floodingCoastal floodingRiver floodingRiver floodingFlash Flooding Flash Flooding

�� DesertificationDesertification

�� SalinizationSalinization

�� Erosion and Erosion and sedimentationsedimentation

�� WILDFIREWILDFIRE

�� BrushBrushForestForestGrassGrassSavannah Savannah

ENDOGENICENDOGENIC

�� VOLCANICVOLCANIC (Lava, (Lava, gas,ashgas,ash�� SEISMICSEISMIC (Earthquake, (Earthquake, �� TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS

�� GRAVIOTORIALGRAVIOTORIAL��

�� Debris avalanchesDebris avalanchesExpansive soilsExpansive soilsLandslidesLandslidesRock fallsRock falls

�� BIOLOGICALBIOLOGICAL

�� EpizootiesEpizooties�� EpiphytotiesEpiphytoties

Vardar flood 1979Vardar flood 1979

>>TextText

project part-financed by the European Union

risk management disaster management

Partner

LOGORiver Vardar latest floods River Vardar latest floods ––

1935 1935 –– (1020 m(1020 m33/s) ; 1937 /s) ; 1937 –– (1080 m(1080 m33/s)/s)1962 1962 –– (1595 m(1595 m33/s) ; 1979 (980 m/s) ; 1979 (980 m 33/s)/s)

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Damage from bombing Damage from bombing in SERBIAin SERBIA

Damages from Damages from torrent flash floodstorrent flash floods

FLASH FLOODS Damages

Negotino LANDSLIDES Varna (BG)

LANDFALLS Mokliste

Extremely dry area - Eroded area >>>> desertification

R I S KR I S K

�� Risk is generally defined as the probability of los s. Risk is generally defined as the probability of los s. �� In economic terms, this refers to a decline in inco me In economic terms, this refers to a decline in inco me

due to losses resulting from a natural hazard. due to losses resulting from a natural hazard.

�� It should be clear that no unique measure of risk exists. It should be clear that no unique measure of risk exists.

Many such measures have been proposed and are Many such measures have been proposed and are currently in use, each providing view on a particul ar currently in use, each providing view on a particul ar situation. situation.

The mainThe main types of riskstypes of risks are:are:�� impacts on personal and public safety and healthimpacts on personal and public safety and health�� Impact on the environmentImpact on the environment�� Impact on economical concerns (costs and benefits). Impact on economical concerns (costs and benefits).

Risk Aversion Risk Aversion vsvs Risk acceptanceRisk acceptance

�� Risk aversion refers to an individual's attitude toward risk. Risk aversion refers to an individual's attitude toward risk. Most people are riskMost people are risk--averse; that is, they are willing to incur averse; that is, they are willing to incur some cost to avoid risk. But there is a wide range in degrees some cost to avoid risk. But there is a wide range in degrees of risk aversion (of risk aversion (BinswangerBinswanger, 1980, and Young, 1979)., 1980, and Young, 1979).

�� In other words, to avoid a given level of risk, some people In other words, to avoid a given level of risk, some people will pay more than others. will pay more than others.

�� Otherwise, most people prioritize risk over safety especially Otherwise, most people prioritize risk over safety especially poor people.poor people.

�� The term The term "acceptable risk""acceptable risk" describes the likelihood of an describes the likelihood of an event whose probability of occurrence is small, whose event whose probability of occurrence is small, whose consequences are so slight, or whose benefits (perceived or consequences are so slight, or whose benefits (perceived or real) are so great, that individuals or groups in society are real) are so great, that individuals or groups in society are willing to take or be subjected to the risk that the event willing to take or be subjected to the risk that the event might occur. might occur.

Risk managementRisk management

�� Risk management Risk management refers to actions taken to refers to actions taken to reduce the consequences or probability of reduce the consequences or probability of unfavorable events. Similarly, natural hazard unfavorable events. Similarly, natural hazard management refers to activities undertaken to management refers to activities undertaken to reduce the negative effects of natural hazards. reduce the negative effects of natural hazards.

�� Risk managementRisk management is the human activity which is the human activity which integrates integrates

� risk recognition, � risk assessment, � developing strategies to manage it, � mitigation of risk using managerial resources.

NATURAL HAZARDS managementNATURAL HAZARDS management

�� Fundamental Principles:Fundamental Principles:

–– Hazards are repetitive and relative predictableHazards are repetitive and relative predictable

–– Risk Analysis is important for understanding impact Risk Analysis is important for understanding impact

–– Hazards are linked, Hazards are linked, -- drought > fire > erosion > desertification > flash flood drought > fire > erosion > desertification > flash flood -- intensity rainfalls > erosion or landslides > flash floods intensity rainfalls > erosion or landslides > flash floods -- earthquake > tsunami, earthquake > tsunami,

–– Human interference is magnifying damageHuman interference is magnifying damage

–– Consequences can be minimizedConsequences can be minimized

The Character of the HazardsThe Character of the Hazards

Predictable timely vs. Unpredictable in timePredictable timely vs. Unpredictable in time�� Some hazards, such as storms or floods can be forecasted with hiSome hazards, such as storms or floods can be forecasted with high gh

accuracies. Most geological events as landslides, landfalls or raccuracies. Most geological events as landslides, landfalls or rock falls can ock falls can not be forecasted in time and space. This is the same with the fnot be forecasted in time and space. This is the same with the flash floods.lash floods.

��

�� Rapid Onset vs. Slow Onset Rapid Onset vs. Slow Onset �� The speed of onset ofThe speed of onset of a hazard is an important variable since it conditions a hazard is an important variable since it conditions

warning time. warning time.

At one extreme event such landslide or flash flood gives vAt one extreme event such landslide or flash flood gives virtually irtually no no warning. warning.

�� Other hazards such as drought, desertification or subsidence actOther hazards such as drought, desertification or subsidence act slowly slowly over a period of months or years. over a period of months or years.

�� Hazards such as erosion/sedimentation have varying lead times: dHazards such as erosion/sedimentation have varying lead times: damage amage may occur suddenly as a result of storm, or may develop over manmay occur suddenly as a result of storm, or may develop over many years. y years. Less extreme are regional floods (in these case the river VardarLess extreme are regional floods (in these case the river Vardar), where ), where the likelihood of occurrence is known for several hours or days the likelihood of occurrence is known for several hours or days in advance. in advance.

Controllable Events vs. Immutable EventsControllable Events vs. Immutable Events

�� The The wild fireswild fires can be controlled with early detection and can be controlled with early detection and quick reaction of the responsible institution especially quick reaction of the responsible institution especially companies that manage the forest because they are companies that manage the forest because they are constantly on the field.constantly on the field.

�� For some types of hazards the actual dimensions of the For some types of hazards the actual dimensions of the occurrence may be altered if appropriate measures are occurrence may be altered if appropriate measures are taken. taken.

�� For others, no known technology can effectively alter the For others, no known technology can effectively alter the occurrence itself. occurrence itself.

�� For example, afforestation of the bareland in the For example, afforestation of the bareland in the catchment and canalizing a stream bed can reduce the catchment and canalizing a stream bed can reduce the area extent of inundations, but nothing will mitigate the area extent of inundations, but nothing will mitigate the ground shaking produced by an earthquake. ground shaking produced by an earthquake.

RISK assessmentRISK assessmentRISK = P x S RISK = P x S

�� PP -- Probability of a Particular Hazard Occurring Probability of a Particular Hazard Occurring �� S S -- Severity of the Outcome When the Hazard or Severity of the Outcome When the Hazard or

Associated Event Occurs (Damages)Associated Event Occurs (Damages)

�� HazardHazard is a condition or event that can cause harmis a condition or event that can cause harm�� SeveritySeverity can be measured by the type of injury; loss of life ; can be measured by the type of injury; loss of life ;

dollars lost; loss of public trust (and customers); dollars lost; loss of public trust (and customers);

�� Problems and opportunitiesProblems and opportunities–– Lack of long term dataLack of long term data–– how do we calculate risk?how do we calculate risk?–– Information may be complex and difficult to analyze e.g., Information may be complex and difficult to analyze e.g.,

what is the effect of radiation leak from a nuclear reactor?what is the effect of radiation leak from a nuclear reactor?–– Better risk assessment will lead to better decisionsBetter risk assessment will lead to better decisions

ANTHROPOCENTRIC and economic approach ???ANTHROPOCENTRIC and economic approach ???

RISK assessmentRISK assessment

KIND OF THREAT

Implemented protective measures

Probability of threat occur

Biggest possible damages

RISK

Evaluation of threat level

Threat scale Relation to infrastructure by

potential damages

RISK ASSESMENTRISK ASSESMENTproneness approachproneness approach

�� Assessment according to the proneness of the Assessment according to the proneness of the area to appearance of any event (e.g. torrent flash area to appearance of any event (e.g. torrent flash flood flood –– precipitation intensity probability, land precipitation intensity probability, land cover, geology, slopes, soils, structural measures cover, geology, slopes, soils, structural measures etc.)etc.)

�� Actual and Potential RiskActual and Potential Risk�� Actual Actual –– current riskcurrent risk

Potential means Potential means -- based on based on ““what what –– ifif”” (e.g. (e.g. whatwhat’’s happened if forest burned >>> erosion risk s happened if forest burned >>> erosion risk increase >> possibility for torrential floodsincrease >> possibility for torrential floods

Measures for mitigation of natural hazards Measures for mitigation of natural hazards

�� 1. Pre1. Pre--event Measures: event Measures: �� a. Mitigation of Natural Hazards: a. Mitigation of Natural Hazards: �� -- Data Collection and AnalysisData Collection and Analysis

-- Vulnerability ReductionVulnerability Reduction�� b. Preparation for Natural Disasters (b. Preparation for Natural Disasters (DMC, CMCDMC, CMC……CMUCMU))�� -- PredictionPrediction

-- Emergency Preparedness (monitoring, alert, evacuation) Emergency Preparedness (monitoring, alert, evacuation) -- Education and TrainingEducation and Training

�� 2. Measures During and Immediately After Natural Disasters:2. Measures During and Immediately After Natural Disasters:�� a. Rescuea. Rescue

b. Reliefb. Relief

�� 3. Post3. Post--disaster Measures:disaster Measures:�� a. Rehabilitationa. Rehabilitation

b. Reconstructionb. Reconstruction

Actors in Natural hazard managementActors in Natural hazard management

�� Planning agenciesPlanning agencies�� Line ministriesLine ministries�� Monitoring and inspection institutionsMonitoring and inspection institutions�� Emergency preparedness and response centersEmergency preparedness and response centers�� The Educational/scientific institutionsThe Educational/scientific institutions�� Local communitiesLocal communities�� Finance agenciesFinance agencies�� NonNon--governmental organizationsgovernmental organizations

�� Each has its own interests and approach.Each has its own interests and approach.

�� If we intend to improve the system we have to If we intend to improve the system we have to improve all of them.improve all of them.

NATURAL HAZARDS that origin from the Hilly NATURAL HAZARDS that origin from the Hilly and Mountainous regionand Mountainous region

�� GravitorialGravitorial –– avalanches, landslides, avalanches, landslides, landfalls , rock fallslandfalls , rock falls

�� HydrologicalHydrological –– flash flood, erosion and flash flood, erosion and sedimentationsedimentation

�� WildfiresWildfires -- forest, grass, bushesforest, grass, bushes

Mitigation of Natural Hazards:Mitigation of Natural Hazards:

�� Mitigation of disasters usually entails reducing the vulnerabiliMitigation of disasters usually entails reducing the vulnerability ty of the elements at risk, modifying the hazardof the elements at risk, modifying the hazard--proneness of the proneness of the site, or changing its function. site, or changing its function.

�� Mitigation measures can have a structural character, such as Mitigation measures can have a structural character, such as the inclusion of specific safety or vulnerability reduction the inclusion of specific safety or vulnerability reduction measures in the measures in the design and construction of new facilities, the design and construction of new facilities, the retrofitting of existing facilities, or the building of protectiretrofitting of existing facilities, or the building of protective ve devices. devices.

�� NonNon--structural mitigation measures typically concentrate on structural mitigation measures typically concentrate on limiting land useslimiting land uses, use of tax incentives and eminent domain, , use of tax incentives and eminent domain, and risk underwriting through insurance programs. and risk underwriting through insurance programs.

�� Many countries are making efforts to introduce mitigation Many countries are making efforts to introduce mitigation measures in hazardmeasures in hazard--prone areas. prone areas.

Mitigation measures in forestryMitigation measures in forestry�� DATA collection and DATA collection and analysysanalysys�� Data collection about different natural events (date, time, locData collection about different natural events (date, time, location, ation,

intensity, reasons, estimation of damages, photo documentationintensity, reasons, estimation of damages, photo documentation……))�� Data analysis (statistic, Data analysis (statistic, ……))�� Development scenarios (probability of occurrence, intensity etc.Development scenarios (probability of occurrence, intensity etc..).)

Vulnerability ReductionVulnerability Reduction

�� Sustainable planning and management (forest activities, Sustainable planning and management (forest activities, forest road net, forestation, fire control, erosion and torrent forest road net, forestation, fire control, erosion and torrent control etc.)control etc.)

�� Structural measures (afforestation of barelands, hydraulic Structural measures (afforestation of barelands, hydraulic structures, contour planting, structures, contour planting, …….).)

�� Fire monitoring structures, tools, equipmentFire monitoring structures, tools, equipment�� Training of the forest workers for fire extinguishing etc.Training of the forest workers for fire extinguishing etc.

EROSION and TORRENTSEROSION and TORRENTSStructural measures:Structural measures:

afforestation, reforestation, afforestation, reforestation, grassing, contour ditches, grassing, contour ditches, terracing, barrages, channels terracing, barrages, channels cascades, earth fills, protective cascades, earth fills, protective walls, contour walls, walls, contour walls, ……..sustainable road construction, sustainable road construction,

Non structural measuresNon structural measuresmultipurpose forest management multipurpose forest management

planning, planning, planning erosion and torrent control, planning erosion and torrent control,

sustainable harvesting, sustainable harvesting, planning suitable road net..planning suitable road net..

Future trendsFuture trends

�� Global Climate and hazardGlobal Climate and hazard–– Global warming is increasing weather related Global warming is increasing weather related

disasters disasters

�� Population and hazardPopulation and hazard–– Greater population density leads to higher riskGreater population density leads to higher risk–– Change in landChange in land--use pattern magnifies use pattern magnifies

damages damages �� Recent floods in Haiti related to deforestationRecent floods in Haiti related to deforestation

Global climate and hazardsGlobal climate and hazards

�� A. Global and regional climate change may A. Global and regional climate change may significantly affect incidence of storms, significantly affect incidence of storms, landslides, drought, fireslandslides, drought, fires

–– 1. how climate change may affect magnitude and 1. how climate change may affect magnitude and frequency of natural eventsfrequency of natural events�� a. sea level rise may increase coastal erosiona. sea level rise may increase coastal erosion

�� b. shift in food production areasb. shift in food production areas

�� c. expansion of deserts and semic. expansion of deserts and semi--deserts deserts

–– 2. warming of oceans will channel more energy from 2. warming of oceans will channel more energy from ocean water into atmosphereocean water into atmosphere�� likely will increase hazardous weatherlikely will increase hazardous weather--related processesrelated processes

Population increase, landPopulation increase, land--use change, use change, and natural hazardsand natural hazards

�� A. Population increase and hazardous eventsA. Population increase and hazardous events

–– 1. as population increases, need for planning to minimize losses1. as population increases, need for planning to minimize losses from from natural disasters also increasesnatural disasters also increases�� a. more people at risk of an eventa. more people at risk of an event�� b. forces more people into hazardous areasb. forces more people into hazardous areas

�� B. LandB. Land--use change and hazardous eventsuse change and hazardous events

–– 1. past half1. past half--century has seen dramatic increase in great catastrophescentury has seen dramatic increase in great catastrophes–– 2. vast majority of natural disaster deaths between 19852. vast majority of natural disaster deaths between 1985--1995 were in 1995 were in

developing worlddeveloping world�� a. Hurricane Mitch: hillsides stripped because of heavy rains ona. Hurricane Mitch: hillsides stripped because of heavy rains on

cleared and burned landcleared and burned land�� b. Yangtze River: timber harvest and conversion to agriculture hb. Yangtze River: timber harvest and conversion to agriculture has as

increased flood hazardincreased flood hazard

DISTARES 1979 - 2004

UNCCD UNCCD -- DESERTIFICATIONDESERTIFICATION�� Semiarid climate conditions, seasonal drought, variable Semiarid climate conditions, seasonal drought, variable

rainfalls, sudden and high intensity rainfallsrainfalls, sudden and high intensity rainfalls�� Poor and erodible soils prone to develop soil crustPoor and erodible soils prone to develop soil crust�� Uneven relief with steep slopes and very diversified landscapeUneven relief with steep slopes and very diversified landscape�� Extensive forest coverage loss due to wildfiresExtensive forest coverage loss due to wildfires�� Crises conditions in agriculture, associated with land Crises conditions in agriculture, associated with land

abandonment and deterioration of soil and water conservation abandonment and deterioration of soil and water conservation structuresstructures

�� Unsustainable use of water resources leading to serious Unsustainable use of water resources leading to serious environmental damagesenvironmental damages

�� Concentration of economic activities in coastal areas as a resulConcentration of economic activities in coastal areas as a result t of urban growth, industrial activities, tourism and irrigated of urban growth, industrial activities, tourism and irrigated agricultureagriculture

Sahara Jumps Mediterranean into Europe: Global warming threatensSahara Jumps Mediterranean into Europe: Global warming threatens to to create dust belt around the globecreate dust belt around the globe ((Paul Brown, 2000)Paul Brown, 2000)

EROSION MAP - EUROPE

Scenario IS92 for Climate Changes Scenario IS92 for Climate Changes ––year 2075year 2075

precipitation decrease up to -25%

summer temperatureincrease +2,5oC

Risk of desertification