project introduction: development context and learnings
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Edward Okoth at the Closing workshop of the BecA‐ILRI‐CSIRO‐AusAID project on Understanding ASF epidemiology as a basis for control, Nairobi, Kenya, 2‐3 October 2013TRANSCRIPT
Analysis of African Swine Fever epidemiology and pig value chains to underpin design of an ASF risk management strategy on the Kenya‐Uganda border
Closing workshop of the BecA‐ILRI‐CSIRO‐AusAID project (2011‐13): Understanding ASF epidemiology as a basis for control
2nd‐3rd October, 2013. Sarova PanAfric Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya
Project Presentation: Edward Okoth,ILRIProject introduction:Project introduction:
development context and learnings
Understanding ASF epidemiology as a fbasis for control
Introduction: Development context and learningsDevelopment context and learnings
Dr Edward OkothDr Edward OkothILRI
Field study coordinatorAfrican Swine Fever Epidemiology ProjectAfrican Swine Fever Epidemiology Project
Workshop presentations on project learnings & implications
1) Introduction: development context and implications 2) ASF Virus genomics and diagnostics3) ASF epidemiology in Kenya‐Uganda border study area4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurityadoption
• E periences & learnings from ke research &• Experiences & learnings from key research & development projects in Uganda
5) Day 2: Design for ASF prevention, detection and response to realise potential for pork production and marketing to contribute to food security
Introduction: Development context and learnings
• Pig sector value and growth; and smallholders• Pig sector value and growth; and smallholders• Why the Kenya‐Uganda border study region?• Study design• Key learnings for development outcomes:• Key learnings for development outcomes:
– Smallholder pig sector has a key role in food security for poorest households
– pattern of ASF outbreaks– ASF impacts– Production risks and constraints– Production risks and constraints
• Ways forward: theory of change
Half the world’s meat comes from pigsPig numbers are growing in AfricaPig numbers are growing in Africa,
from a low base
8,000,000
9,000,000
Nigeria
6,000,000
7,000,000NigeriaUgandaBurkina Faso
4,000,000
5,000,000 MalawiAngola
2 000 000
3,000,000
4,000,000CameroonSouth Africa
1,000,000
2,000,000 MozambiqueCentral African Republic
02011201020092008200720062005200420032002
FEWSNET, African countries with >$1m pigs,
Smallholder pig sector is not well accounted for in pig sector planningl f k d d l k• Value of pork traded in Kenya commercial pork
sector 1 billion K/shillings in 2005 (from Githigia 2010)
• Value of smallholder sector?? ?S llh ld t• Smallholder sector:– Free range or tethered pigs– Low input systems– Livelihood strategies: breed & sale of piglets; raiseLivelihood strategies: breed & sale of piglets; raise weaners for sale; boar service; agistement
Farmers can get good income from pig keeping
One sow, average 10 piglets x 3 farrowings/year@ USD 12/piglet= USD 360/year= USD 360/year = 1 year secondary school feesfees
B t in the Ken a Uganda borderBut in the Kenya‐Uganda border region, 70% of farmers earnt less than USD 100 from their pigs in 2012USD 100 from their pigs in 2012.
ASF impacts are an important factorASF impacts are an important factor.
Kenya‐Uganda border region: important for d t di ASF id i l i t Af iunderstanding ASF epidemiology in eastern Africa
• Indicated as a source for outbreaks in other areas, e.g. into commercial pig sector near Nairobi
• This was confirmed by virus genotyping, with spread of ASF virus from Kenya‐Uganda border to coastal Kenya, 2011
• Opportunity to improve understanding of ASF Coast
Kenya Districts
ith ASFgtransboundary epidemiology
Coast outbreak 2011
with ASF virus
Many smallholders in the region keep pigsMany smallholders in the region keep pigs• c30% of households
Census Pig Density km2
keep pigs• Low input pig keeping
0.5- 1.9
2-5
6-11
20-29
30 41
12-19p p g p g• 1‐2 pigs per household• localised value chains Infrastructure
30-41
42-55
56-74
75 -85
100 -328
• localised value chains• Commercial sector
d d l d
Primary Road Route
!( Other Town
Major Town
Kenya Uganda Border
Secondary Road Route
underdeveloped• Indications of gap
Lake
Density of pigs in Busia & Teso
between supply & demand for pork
Districts, KENYA 2009 and Busia & Tororo Districts, UGANDA 2008(census data)
Pig keeping is growing fast: many new pig‐keepers. But it’s also dynamicBut it’s also dynamic:
many farmers move in and out of pig keeping
Continuity in Pig‐keeping since first started, by number of households (N=608) and District in study region
140160
180
80100120
204060 Discontinuous
Continuous
020
Busia_Ke TesoB i UBusia_Ug
TororoKenyaUganda
70% of pig keeping farmers in the region have cash incomes below MDG poverty lineProportion of sampled households in each of three
90%
Proportion of sampled households in each of three income strata, by District in project study region
Income strata
70%
80% Household cash income <$1.25/day
Household cash income
50%
60%Household cash income $1.25‐$5 /day
Household cash income
30%
40% >$5/day
Household cash income is gross, from estimates
d d b h h ld
10%
20% provided by household interviewees from all sources including crops, remittances, off farm work.
0%Busia_Ke Teso Busia_Ug Tororo
Kenya Uganda
farm work. Totals in USD
Research design: starting point for integrating disciplinesstarting point for integrating disciplines
What do people do that causes ASFVirus
TRANSMISSIONPATHWAYSPeople
SOURCES
Carcasses
What do people do that causes ASF to spread? Why?What would it take for people to
CarrierPig
SwillFeces
Undercooked meatPeoplePigs
Vehicles
Wildlife ReservoirsScavengers
Carcasses What would it take for people to behave differently?
Pig immune
ImmunePig
PigSlaughter wasteTicks (Vector)
Wildlife Reservoirs
ENVIRONMENT
systemNutrition
Co‐infection loadParasites
Vet services
Susceptible Pig Infected Pig
R d PiRecovered Pig
DeadPig
Research design: framework for modeling ASF epidemiologyframework for modeling ASF epidemiology
Sampling design: study regionSampling design: study region
• 32 villages randomly selected in randomised sub‐locations/parishes
• c. 20 households per village, randomly selected
• 2 additional villages gsampled purposively, post outbreakp
Data from Pigs People When?1 Cross‐sectional survey * * Kenya: July–Aug 12(680 pig keeping households, inc 640 in randomised clusters,; 40 purposive post outbreak)
Blood Serumfeces
Structured survey
Uganda: Sept ‐Nov 12
2 Longitudinal “sentinel pig” study (117 pigs & pig keeping households, randomised sub‐
*Blood serum
feces
*Structured survey
Kenya: Sept 12‐Mar 13
Uganda: Jan to June 13,sample of Cross‐section sample, 3xsample points@0,3.5,7 mths)
fecesSome tissue (Oct13)
survey g
3 Pig value chain actors * * Jan June 133 Pig value chain actors, (extended social network survey)
*semi‐structured
interviews
Jan ‐June 13
4 Farmer focus groups (biosecurity knowledge,capacity)
* Mar ‐June 13
capacity)
5 Outbreaks * Opportunistic
6 Slaughter slabs *Blood, Tissue
Aug‐Oct13
Key learnings for development outcomes
Pigs have a key role in food security for the t h h ld
Proportion of annual cash income of pig keeping households from pig
poorest households
100%
Proportion of annual cash income of pig keeping households from pig keeping, by household income strata and District in project study region
Income strata
70%
80%
90% Household cash income <$1.25/dayHousehold cash income
Income strata
50%
60%
70%$1.25‐$5/dayHousehold cash income >$5/day
20%
30%
40% Household cash income is gross and is from estimates provided by household interviewees from all sources including crops remittances
0%
10%
Busia Ke Teso Busia Ug Tororo
sources including crops, remittances, off farm work. Pig income is from more detailed inquiry about pig sales during 2012, Busia_Ke Teso Busia_Ug Tororo
Kenya Ugandaboar service & agistment income. Totals in USD
Women participate quite equitably in pig ownership and decisions and do most pig care
Gender roles in some aspects of pig keeping and trading
60%
70% Female
M l
40%
50%
60% Male
Female & Male together
20%
30%
40% together
14% f h d f
0%
10%
20% 14% of heads of sampled pig keeping household heads are
0%Decisions on pig purchase
Ownership of pigs
Care of pigsfemale
ASF is a substantial cause of pig mortality
Fate of pigs owned by surveyed households during 2012 and not
ASF is a substantial cause of pig mortality
200
p g y y gon farm at time of survey, by age/gender of pigs
(N=696 pigs)• 17% of pigs that were on farm in 12 months prior to
150
20032 DIED
OTHER DISPOSALSOLD
months prior to household survey died before sale or other disposal.
100153
52 17SOLD p
• Interviewees described clinical signs that indicate
50
153
102 1215
3
gASF in 50% deaths.• 8.2% of interviewees, across
0PIGLETS
SUB‐ADULTS SOWS
7967
interviewees, across 70% of sampled villages, said they had experienced ASF SOWS
BOARSCASTRATED BOARS
poutbreaks in 2012 and lost pigs.
‘Rolling outbreaks”: ASF affects just a few households in a village at any one time
Outbreak data from 576 households interviewed August – November 20122012Randomly sampled villages (N=32)
Location of household where interviewee described an outbreak that occurred during 2011 (all months)
Disease, including ASF, is the biggest riskperceived by farmers for pig‐keeping
Risks to investment in pigs, by % of factors mentioned by farm household
interviewees (N=683)60% of interviewees said disease was biggest risk
60%70%to their investment in
pigs. Some specifically mentioned ASF although
30%40%50%mentioned ASF although
we did not prompt farmers about ASF.
10%20%30%farmers about ASF.
Poor farmer knowledge 0%about ASF helps to
explain why it is not specifically mentionedspecifically mentioned more often.
Half the farms that have had outbreaks h h d 1 tb khave had >1 outbreak
Number of outbreaks on farm since pig keeping started by % of households that have had 1 outbreak
( 140 HH th t d ib d tb k f 640 HH l d)46%
45%50%
(n=140 HHs that described outbreaks of 640 HHs sampled)
32%
30%35%40%
14%15%20%25%
1%3%
5%
0%5%10%
Not specified 1 2 3‐5 6‐10 >10
Disease, including ASF, is the main reason farmers have moved in and out of pig keeping
90 Reasons for discontinuity in pig keeping by
farmers have moved in and out of pig‐keeping
70
80 Various Other Reasons
number of discontinuous pig‐keeping households (n=271) by District
60
70Financial constraint
F d i
40
50 Feed constraint
Disease
20
30Disease
Conflict,
0
10Sabotage
All died, disease0
Busia_Ke Teso Busia_Ug Tororo
Kenya Uganda
Farmers have adapted their pig‐keeping to di bl l f d hpredictable seasonal food shortages.
• Interviewees sell their pigs when food is in short
60%
70% %hh food shortages for pigs
%hh food shortages for people
Food shortages for pigs and people occur at the same time
hsupply• And buy a new piglet 50%
60%g p p
each year. Farmer told us they sell pigs when food is in short supply
either immediately, or when food is again
il bl f30%
40%when food is in short supply and buy a smaller pig immediately, or when food and
available on farm20%
30%piglets are again available
0%
10%
But adapting to ASF is difficult for farmers because they can’t predict when ASF will strike
Farmer focus group about biosecurityAlupevillage, Uganda, 2013
Alternate theories of change:Alternate theories of change:
T li th b fit f th i t f f dTo realise the benefits of the pig sector for food security:EITHER1) all pig sector constraints need to be tackled together1) all pig sector constraints need to be tackled together, holisticallyOR2) Effective ASF prevention detection and response will2) Effective ASF prevention, detection and response will open up the space for pig value chain actors to i t i d t dd th t i tinnovate in order to address other constraints
Workshop presentations on Project learnings & implications
1) Introduction: development context and implications 2) ASF Virus genomics and diagnostics3) ASF epidemiology in Kenya‐Uganda border study area4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurity4) Pathways for change – farmer capacity for biosecurityadoption
• E periences & learnings from ke research &• Experiences & learnings from key research & development projects in Uganda
5) Day 2: Design for ASF prevention, detection and response to realise potential for pork production and marketing to contribute to food security