project director: brian ostrom, ph.d. national center for state courts assessing consistency &...
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Project Director:
Brian Ostrom, Ph.D.National Center for State Courts
Assessing Consistency &Fairness in Sentencing:
A Comparative Study in Three States
Final Report
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Purpose of structured sentencing
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
“The end is not the process in itself, but the substantive goal that trial judges exercise independent and deliberative judgment about each sentence—making these sentences more than an algebraic equation and less than a Rorschach test.”
Judge Jeffrey Sutton
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What is the research goal?
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
The degree to which a sentencing system contributes to the maintenance of justice depends in large measure on three central issues:
Consistency--like cases are treated alike
Proportionality– more serious offenders are punished more severely
Lack of discrimination—age, gender and race are insignificant in who goes to prison and for how long
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Why these 3 states?
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
• Well-respected systems
• Alternative design strategies
• Voluntary and presumptive
• Data is more readily obtainable
These states represent 3 distinct approaches to structuring judicial discretion
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What type of data analysis is used?
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
• Multivariate statistical analysis (various techniques)
• Reviewing all other state guideline systems, and
assessing impact of recent supreme court decisions
• Review and comment by commission and staff
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Continuum of sentencing guidelines
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
• Enforceable rule related to guideline use
• Completion of guideline forms required
• Sentencing commission monitors compliance
• Compelling and substantial reason for departure
• Written reason required for departure
• Appellate review
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Produced scheme to assess each SG structure
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
I II III IV V VIEnforceable
RuleWorksheet Completion
S.G. Monitors Compliance
Departure Rationale
Written Reason
Appellate Review Total
North Carolina 2 2 2 2 2 2 12Minnesota 1 2 2 2 2 2 11Oregon 1 2 1 2 2 2 10Kansas 1 2 1 2 2 2 10Washington 1 1 2 2 2 2 10Pennsylvania 0 2 2 1 2 2 9Michigan 1 1 0 2 2 2 8Maryland 0 2 1 2 2 0 7Massachusetts 0 1 1 1 2 2 7Alaska 0 2 0 1 2 2 7Virginia 0 2 2 0 2 0 6Delaw are 0 2 0 2 2 0 6Utah 0 2 2 1 1 0 6Louisiana 0 2 0 0 2 1 5Arkansas 0 2 1 0 0 1 4Tennessee 0 1 0 0 1 1 3District of Columbia 0 0 1 0 2 0 3Alabama 0 2 0 0 1 0 3Missouri 0 2 0 0 0 0 2Ohio 1 0 0 0 0 0 1Wisconsin 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Average 0.4 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 6.2
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Produced a State Guideline Continuum
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
NCMN
OR
KS
WAWI
PAMIMD
MAVA
AKDE
LA UTAROH MO
AL
DC
TN
More Voluntary
More Mandatory
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
NCMN
OR
KS
WAWI
PAMIMD
MAVA
AKDE
LA UTAROH MO
AL
DC
TN
More Voluntary
More Mandatory
Minnesota: presumptive, determinate, and tighter ranges
Michigan: presumptive, indeterminate, and wider ranges
Virginia: voluntary and widest ranges
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Modeling strategy
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Simulate the actual sentencing process by modeling the content and form of information received by the judge at the time of sentencing
Do the basic design features of the guidelines serve to locate similarly situated offenders in terms of location and duration?
Do the guidelines in operation provide clear-cut and proportional distinctions between more serious and less serious offenders?
Is there evidence of discrimination distinct from inconsistency in sentencing?
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Comparing Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Comparative Factor Minnesota Michigan Assault Burglary
Sentencing Commisison Active Abolished
Guideline Type Grid Grid
Number of "cells" 77 258
Average Range within Cell 10-15% 50-67%
Degree of Cell Overlap very low high
Percent to Prison 24% 16% 51% 49%
Average Prison Sentence 45.54 40.46 57.21 48.46
Truth in Sentencing 67% 100%
Departure Policy Firm Firm Form Only Form Only
Departure Frequency High Low Moderate Moderate
Departure Magnitude Low High Moderate Moderate
% Above 47.8% 121.0% 77.0% 42.0%
% Below -29.1% -48.5% -55.0% -55.0%
Proportionality High High Low Low
Percent Correctly Predicted 87.0% 89.9% 75.3% 81.4%
PRE 55.8% 45.8% 59.2% 68.5%
Percent Prison Correct 92.5% 99.0% 70.7% 83.6%
Percent No Prison Correct 69.5% 54.0% 80.1% 79.2%
Estimated R2 86.1% 67.2% 55.4% 49.3%
Hazard rate Insignificant
60-66%
high
85%
Virginia
Active
List
No cells
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Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
• Focus on these individual crime groups:
• Assault
• Larceny
• Burglary
• Fraud
• Drugs
• Robbery
• Look at the decision making associated with
• Worksheet A – to model prison/no prison decision
• Worksheet C – to model prison sentence length decision
Concentrating on Virginia….
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Concentrating on Virginia….
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
CrimeGroup N % Prison
AveragePrison
(months)
Assault 1,614 78.2% 57.21
Burglary 1,668 49.1% 48.45
Fraud 3,343 26.1% 23.93
Larceny 5,494 26.3% 26.91
Narcotics 7,404 26.9% 35.37
Robbery 928 85.8% 116.78
Six Group Total 20,451 32.9% 45.94
All Offenders 27,559 35.4% 53.62
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Consistency…
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Null Model
What we predicted
Michigan 81 89
Minnesota 71 87
Virginia
Assault 60 75
Burglary 59 81
Narcotics 68 82
Larceny 68 84
Fraud 68 85
Robbery 84 89
How well do we predict who goes to prison?(percentages)
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Consistency…
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Points Months Points Months Points Months Points Months Points Months Points Months
7 13.3 1-8 17.6 1-6 17.3 1-6 18.9 1-5 15.8 1-20 23.5
8 11.7 9 19.6 7 18.3 7 20.9 6-10 17.5 21-38 37.3
14 15.2 10-16 24.4 8 17.5 8-9 21.2 11-15 18.2 39-58 60.6
16-17 15.8 18 26.2 9 19.3 10 21.3 16-18 20.8 59-64 67.1
32-34 23.9 19-36 42.6 10 19.6 11-14 24.3 19-21 24.7 65-92 98.3
68 42.5 38-56 67.5 11-12 20.4 15-22 26.9 22-35 27.3 93-128 115.7
88 54.2 60-99 71.6 13-14 22.3 28 35.9 36-59 37.2 129-168 139.9
>88 93.0 100+ 155.5 15+ 30.2 29+ 45.6 60+ 56.9 169+ 205.2
Assault Burglary Fraud
Primary Offense Primary Offense Primary Offense
As Point Values Increase, Months Of Sentence Also Rises
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Consistency…
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Figure 6-2b: Estimated Probabaility of Prison by Total Section A Points -- Burglary
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48
Section A Total Points
Es
tim
ate
d P
rob
ab
ility
of
Pri
so
n
Estimated Probability Actual Percentage
Burglary: Estimated Probability of Prison Sentence by Worksheet A Point Value
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Proportionality…
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
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Proportionality…
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Note: Above is a partial list of the prior record factors that were examined.
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Discrimination….
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Which blocks (groups) of factors are most significant in predicting the Prison In/Out Decision?
= Significant = Not significant
Michigan Minnesota Assault Burglary Narcotics Larceny Fraud Robbery
Conviction Offense Severity
Offense Seriousness
Counts/Add'l Offenses
Prior Record
Grid Cell Type
Habitual Offender
Extra Guideline Factors
Trial
Sex
Race
Sentencing Circuit
Virginia
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Comparing Outstate and Southeast Michigan
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Average Difference Between Outstate and SE Michigan Sentences by Crime Class
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
A B C D E F G H
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Comparing Outstate and Hennepin Co. Minnesota
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
XI X IX VIII VII VI V IV III III I
Percent Difference Between Predicted Outstate and Hennepin Sentence Length
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
XI X IX VIII VII VI V IV III III I
Conviction Offense Severity Level
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Conclusions:
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
Consistency achieved in all three guideline systems
A challenge for all systems lies in proportionality
Virginia guidelines have successfully eliminated any evidence of systematic discrimination
•Sex •Race•geography
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Status of Project
Assessing Consistency and Fairness in Sentencing:A Comparative Study in Three States
• Peer review complete
• NIJ reviewing report
•2008 NASC conference