prof philip lloyd, energy institute, cput [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Is climate change one of the major global challenges of the 21st century?
*The Department claims it is
*The Department leads no evidence to that effect
*It claims there will be persistent drought and extreme weather events, rising sea levels, coastal erosion and ocean acidification
*Let’s check!
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*The longest weather record
we possess
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Rainfall Trend Lower 95% Upper 95%
Year
Rain
fall,
mm
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*You need a baseline!
*What is normal?
*For most climate-related phenomena, we need to measure for a long time to make sure we are looking at reality
*Because the climate changes naturally
*So it too early to say anything meaningful about persistent droughts or extreme weather events
*We have only really been looking hard since 1992
*How about sea level?
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*The sea is rising!
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*The sea is still rising - SLOWLY!
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Can’t they get anything right?
*So the Department is also wrong on sea level
*They could be right on coastal erosion – but they could also be wrong
*Coastal erosion is inevitable if the sea level rises
*We certainly cannot say climate change has made it worse
*The sea has an average pH of 8.1 today
* It may have been 8.2 long ago
*pH 8.1 is alkaline, not acid
*The claim that it has acidified is “imprecise”
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Are substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions essential??
*Substantial (45%) increases in GHG’s since 1996 have had no significant effect
*The temperature was predicted to go up 0.4oC
*It has gone up 0.1oC
*The temperature went up by 0.45oC between 1910 and 1940, yet there was no real increase in GHG’s
*Both CO2 and GHG’s went up between 1970 and 1996
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Does CO2 drive anything?
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y, d
eg C
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*South Africa can reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and
by 42% by 2025
*If it will have minimal impact, why should we?
*And are these targets realistic?
*No! No!
*“In this scenario the components are imagined rather than arrived at through the rigour of modelling” (Long Term Mitigation Scenarios)
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*LTMS
*The “Required by Science” scenario was developed with its components imagined
*The scenario is not based on known technologies with well-understood parameters, including cost
* It was not possible to quantify the emission reductions or the costs of behavioural changes.
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*South Africa can reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and
by 42% by 2025
*If it will have minimal impact, why should we?
*And are these targets realistic?
*No! No!
*“In this scenario the components are imagined rather than arrived at through the rigour of modelling” (Long Term Mitigation Scenarios)
*The Department’s plan is based upon someone’s dreams
*Even though the President gave them his approval, their practicality has never been shown
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Practical?
*The globe has been warming for over 150 years
*There is NO indication of increasing severity
*Adaptation may save $0.05-0.9bn (2020-2030), $0.2-3.0bn (2020-2050)
*At a cost $0.7-1.9bn (2010-2015)
*A worse investment would be difficult to imagine
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Mitigation?
*$30 billion REIPPPP by 2020
*$349bn decarbonisation by 2050
*$0.45bn CCS (20Mt – if we can find somewhere to put it)
*$513bn electric vehicles by 2050
*$488bn hybrids by 2030
*$1380.45 + ?$180bn new REIPPPP + ?$650bn new hybrids
*Say $2210bn
*~R15 500 per year for every South African man woman and child for the next 35 years
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*What are our partners doing?
*China will only level out in 2030
*By which time its emissions will have grown by over 2 000 million tonnes
*And we hope to save the world by cutting our emissions by 100 million tonnes?
*India has refused to say if or when its emissions will level out
*It says economic development is more important
*Our Department’s report doesn’t even mention jobs
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Can we get real and be a BRIC?
*We should abandon the Department’s pipe dream without further ado
*We have no hope of saving the world on our own
*We should join the Like Minded Group of Developing Countries
*They represent most of the developing world
*And make our contribution to COP21 reflect our priorities for development over our desire to look good environmentally.
Environment Portfolio Committee, Sept 2015
*Thank you for the opportunity to address you
Any questions?