prof. galal osman - folkecenterevents€¦ · prof.dr/ galal osman 42. batteries emerge as the key...

Global Energy System Based On

100% Renewable Energy Power Sector

Prof. Galal OsmanWWEA Vice President

Egypt Wind Energy Association Handy : 01223168488

Email :[email protected]

Prof.Dr/ Galal Osman 1

Contents

1. 100% Renewable Energy For The World2.100% renewable electricity A roadmap to

2050 for Europe and North Africa3. 100% Renewable Energy For MENA4. 100% Renewable Energy For EGYPT5. Policy Recommendations.


1 . 100% Renewable Energy For The World


Renewable Energy Installed In The World


World Total Capacity of RE Installing Until 2020


Why Needing To 100% Of RE For The World ???

1. To avoid global warming and millions of annual air-pollution deaths

2. To reduce social cost of energy and create millions of net long-term jobs

3. To reduce power disruption and increaseworldwide access to energy


Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable EnergyThe modelling by

Lappeenranta University

[email protected]


--The modelling by the Lappeenranta University of -Technology as of 2017 is the only one to run at full

-hourly resolution on a global-local scale.-Real weather data were used for assessing the solar, wind and hydro resources.

-By 2050, the world population is expected to grow from 7.3to 9.7 billion.

-The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWhby 2050.


Global electricity system based on 100% renewablesis technically feasible and cost-effectiveExisting RE potential and technologies can generatesufficient and secure power to cover the entire globalelectricity demand by 2050

Total LCOE on a global average for 100% RE is 52 €/MWh in 2050, vs. 70 €/MWh in 2015Electricity generation will be mainly based on solarPV, plus wind energy, hydropower and some bioenergy


Substantial regional variations: solar PV dominance in the Sun Belt, more wind in the North

Electricity storage mainly provided by battery storage plus RE gas for seasonal balancing

The future electricity system is significantly more efficient than the present one

Many new stable jobs will be created, which enables the substitution of lost coal jobs


Electricity Generation in 2015 and 2050


In 2050, solar PV accounts for 69%, wind energy 18%,hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricitymix globally.

Gas generation is only from renewable energy based gas(bio-methane and power-to-gas)

Nuclear power still accounts for negligible 0.3% of thetotal electricity generation


Electricity Storage Output in 2015 and 2050


Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV.

Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050,95% of which is covered by batteries alone.

Battery storage provides mainly diurnal storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.


Job Opportunities


The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs by 2015.

Governments should start programmesto convert coal jobs to jobs for renewable energy.


Renewable Electricity is Cost-effective


Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015.

These costs include generation, curtailment, storage and some grid costs.

Stable and secure electricity supply for all hours of a year.


100% Renewables drastically reduces Losses


The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricitydemand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of primary energy input is lost.

Thermal power plants (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, biomass) lose much of the primary energy input.

Curtailment is a low-cost flexibility option in future.


Global Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy

The modelling by Stanford University


They develop energy roadmaps to significantly slow global warming and nearly eliminate air-pollution mortality in 139 countries.

These plans call for electrifying all energy sectors (transportation, heating/cooling, industry, agriculture/forestry/fishing) and providing the electricity with 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power .


Fully implementing the roadmaps by 2050 avoids 1.5C global warming and millions of deaths from air pollution annuallycreates 24.3 million net new long-term, full-time jobs; reduces energy costs to society; reduces power requirements 42.5%; reduces power disruption; and increases worldwide access to energy.


2.100% renewable electricityA roadmap to 2050 for

Europe and North AfricaThis report was written by

Team comprising individuals from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC), The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , and The European Climate Forum (ECF)


The key components of the 2050 vision are:1. A regional power system based on a Super Smart Grid.2. The rapid scaling up of all forms of renewable power, with the ultimate goal of decarbonising electricity generation in Europe and North Africa.3. A unified European power market that is united with the North Africa one, allowing for the free trading of electricity between all countries.4. The production of electricity at the most suitable sites by the most suitable renewable technologies; and5. Affordable electricity for each European and North African country.


Electricity mix of European and the five North African countries :


2050 vision• The electricity supply system of North Africa and Europe in 2050 is 100% renewable, following a continuous and steady transformation of the power system in parallel with sustained growth in demand.• The grids of North Africa and Europe are strongly interconnected. This has been achieved through the reinforcement of the HVAC grid, a pan-European, cross Mediterranean overlay HVDC Super Grid and the introduction of Smart technologies and a Smart Grid.


• The renewable power mix is geographically optimised, with production at the most suitable sites across Europe and North Africa. Wind generation in the windy North Sea region, concentrating solar power with storage in the sunny south, biomass and wind in the Baltic Sea region and eastern Europe, and hydro in the mountainousregions of Scandinavia and the Alps.

• The North African and European energy policies are aligned and cooperative. A stable and predictable policy framework has been vital in achieving a 100% renewable power sector, as have financial incentives and support mechanisms, but these are now phased out.


• The European power market is unified and united with the North African market. This has been achieved by the gradual unification of regional markets, which have grown organically over time. An additional market which recognises and rewards dispatchability has also been introduced.

• All renewable technologies in use have experienced significant reductions in capital and operational costs along with improvements in efficiency. They are now cost competitive. Their supply chains constitute a mature and strong industry and the renewable power sector is an important employer of skilled workers in both regions. Almost all citizens have access to affordable electricity, especially in North Africa.


1. Electricity demand

In 2050, we envisage that the EU-NA power system will have a total electricity consumption of at least 5000 TWh/a,with approximately 25% of this demand in North Africa and the remainder in Europe. In total, only 60% (3000TWh/a) of the system-wide electricity supply is produced in Europe, whereas 40% (2000 TWh/a) is produced inNorth Africa. Thus, a large fraction – 20% – of European electricity is produced in North Africa.


2. Power grids- The only imports into the European power system would be the renewable power imports from North Africa to Europe (about 750 TWh/a) which would be enabled by a large number of separate cross- Mediterranean HVDC links. - These lines would need to be fully integrated into the overlay grid, which increases both the redundancy of export/import trading lines and the security of supply in the entire system . - The feed-in points for electricity imports into the HVAC system would be the same as the feed-in points from the general HVDC grid.


3. Electricity supply--European and North African countries have supported the domestic

expansion of renewable energy generation, focusing on technologies appropriate for their resource profile.

-Wind generation has expanded across the North Sea region benefiting from the development of the North Sea Grid project.

-CSP with storage and PV have developed across southern Europe and subsequently in North Africa, allowing lessons learned from European expansion to inform the planning and construction of substantial new generation infrastructure in North Africa.


-Biomass and wind generation capacity have also been supported across the Baltic region and eastern Europe.

-Finally, hydro generation capacity has been maintained and encouraged where possible across Scandinavia and the European Alps.

The result of all of this activity has been that each of the individual countries in the region has been able to play a large role in meeting a part of EU-NA's overall renewable power supply.


3 . 100% Renewable Energy For MENA


MENA - Power Plant Infrastructure


MENA Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy

In 2050


The MENA region can reach 100% RE and zero GHG emissionsby 2050. Total LCOE average is around 50.7 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050

(including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to the total LCOE of 97.1 €/MWh in 2015

main RE sources contribute to the total electricity supply in 2050 as follows:

77% solar PV 17% wind energy2% hydropower1% CSP through steam turbines1% bioenergy


Batteries emerge as the key storage technology with 90% of total storage output

Cost of storage contributes substantially to the total energy system LCOE, which is 47%

GHG emissions can be reduced from about 700 MtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050

A 100% RE system is more efficient and cost competitive than a fossil based option


4 . 100% Renewable Energy For EGYPT


Technical Assistance to Reform the Energy Sector “TARES”, Prof.Dr/ Galal Osman 45

Expected Contribution of RE in theSupply Mix based on Different Scenarios


Sources of Electricity Supplythe Least Cost Scenario


1.Egypt aim to add 4.3 GW of renewable energy to its national production capacity by 2022.2.Egypt has ambitions to become the main renewable energy hub of North Africa within the next six to eight years3.Egypt plans to produce 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2022 and 37% by 2035



EGYPT Energy System Based on 100% Renewable Energy In 2050

5. Policy Recommendations:

Instruments, enabling direct private investments in renewable energy and other zero emission technologies

• Fixed feed-in-tariffs, such as the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)• Hybrid renewable power plant renumeration• Tenders only for capacities above 40 MW


Phasing-out all state subsidies to fossil fuel and nuclear energy generationTax exemptions for investments in renewable energyReplacement of emission trading systems with carbon & radioactivity taxesResearch and education


THANK YOU


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