PROCEEDINGS OF

PSAM — II

An International Conference Devoted to the Advancement ofSystem-based Methods for the Design and Operation of

Technological Systems and Processes

San Diego, California, U.SA.

March 20-25, 1994

Editors

G.E. Apostolalds and J.S. WuUniversity of California, Los Angeles

Contributing Editors

D. Bley, PLG, Inc.S. Guarro, Aerospace Corp.

V. Ho, PLG, Inc.R. Mulvihill, PRC, Inc.

D. Orvis, APG, Inc.N. Sankaran, Unocal Corporation

N. Siu, Idaho National Engineering LaboratoryM. Stamatelatos, Scientech, Inc.

UB/TIB Hannover 89113 077 521

CONTENTS

037 Uncertainties and Sensitivities in Physical and ChemicalPhenomenology—Explosions and Combustion

Chair: S. Kaplan

Development of Fast-Running Thermal and Structural Response Models for ProbabilisticAnalyses of Complex Systems

AS. Benjamin, N.N. Brown (SNL)

The Ignition Temperature of Solid Explosives Exposed to a FireJJi. Creighton (LLNL)

Development and Validation of a Vapour Qouds Explosion Blast ModelG. Opschoor, AC. van den Berg, W.P.M. Mercx (TNO Prins Maurits Lab,Netherlands)

Post-Mortem Risk Modeling of the Mexico City DisasterOAT. Pettitt, JJ). Harms, J.L. Woodward (DNV Technica)

038 Risk Assessment - Space and Missile SystemsChair: S. Guarro, The Aerospace Corporation

An Assessment Methodology for SRB Mission Failure ProbabilityF. Hsu, MA. Azarm (BNL)

The Development of Risk Profiles for Space and Missile Launch Range Safety DecisionsLX. PhUipson (ACTA)

Risk Assessment Framework for the CASSINI Planetary Mission5. Guarro (Aerospace Corp.); B. Bream (NASA Lewis)

Risks and Issues in Fire Safety on the Space StationR. Friedman (NASA Lewis)

039 Expert JudgmentChair: L.HJ. Goossens, Delft U. TechnoL

Method of Expert Judgment Applied to Waste Landfill PerformanceLj. Rodic, LHJ. Goossens (Delft U. Technol.)

The Acute Toxicity of Hazardous Materials and Expert JudgmentLJiJ. Goossens, RM. Cooke (Delft U. Technol); F. Woudenberg, P. van der Torn(Municipal Health Serv., Rotterdam)

A Latent Variable Model in Uncertainty AnalysisA.M.H. Meeuwissen, R.M. Cooke (Delft U. Technol.)

040 Benefits of Understanding Human Errors in Complex SystemsChair: J. Wreathall, J. Wreathall & Co.

Some Requirements for Designing and Managing Reliable Complex SystemsK.H. Roberts (UC Berkeley); M. Grabows/d (Rensselaer Polytechnic U.)

Incorporation of Human Factors into Process Hazard AnalysisDS. McCafferty, KA. Borows (DNV Technica)

041 Methods for Improved Operations of Nuclear UnitsChair: K. Jamali, USDOE

The Savannah River Site Component Generic Data Base: Applicable to a Wide Variety ofFacilities

CM. B Ian ton (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.); S. A. Eide (LANL)

Risk Based Regulation Configuration Control for the James A. Fitzpatrick Nuclear PowerPlant

CJ. Everline, M.G. Stamatelatos, F.M. Quinn (SCIENTECH)

Application of Risk-Based Methods for Inspection of Nuclear Power Plant SystemsSM. Wong, W.E. Gunther (BNL); J.W. Chung, WJ>. Beckner (USNRC)

Assessment of Existing Plant Instrumentation for Severe Accident ManagementAJ. Horn, D.E. True (ERIN Eng. & Res.); S. Oh (EPRI)

042 Time Dependent EffectsChair: D.L. Kelly, INEL

Survey and Evaluation of Aging Risk Assessment Methods and ApplicationsD. Sanzo, P. Kvam (LANL); G. Apostolakis, J.W. Wu, T. Milici, N. Ghoniem, S.Guarro (ASCA)

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Development of High Temperature Metallic Melting Processes Related to the Detritiation ofExhausted Control Rods

G. Modica, H. Dworschak, F. Mannone (CEC-JRC, Ispra); R. Nannicini (ENEA)

Use of Sensitivity Analysis in Selection of Upgrades for Low Seismic Capacity Componentsfor the Advanced Test Reactor

ST. Khericha, SA. Atkinson (INEL); DM. Henry (Tenera); M.K. Ravindra (EQE Intl.)

043 Risk Communication to ProfessionalsChair: A.S. Heger, U. New Mexico

How Shall We Measure the Reliability Performance of a Safety System?P. Hokstad (SINTEF)

The Use of Risk Contours to Clarify Risk CommunicationT.E. Fenstermacher (PLG); J.T. Kopecek (Union Oil of Calif.)

Improving NRC Staff Uses of Risk AssessmentMA. Cunningham, P. Baranowsky, W. Beckner, P. Raihbun (USNRC)

044 Uncertainties and Sensitivities in Physical and ChemicalPhenomenology—Radiological Source Terms

Chair: EJ. Bonano, Beta Corp. Intl.

Uncertainties and Sensitivities in Aerosol Calculations - An Analysis of a FIPLOC-MApplication to the Experiment VANAM-M2

E. Hofer, B. Krzykacz, J. Langhans, G. Weber (GRS, FRG)

Analysis of Source Term Uncertainty Issues for LWRsK Kuramatsu (JAERI)

Source Term Analysis for High Level Waste Storage AccidentsS. Medhekar, J. Kindinger (PLG); D. MacFarlane (LANL)

045 Interactive Fault Detection and Diagnosis—ApplicationsChair: M. Modarres, U. Maryland

Applications of Pattern Recognition Techniques to Online Fault DetectionKM. Singer, K.C. Gross, R.W. King (ANL)

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Principal Factor Analysis of the Reactor Coolant Pump SystemW.S. Grenzebach (Applied Mgmt. Consultants); TJ. Marx (Marx Soc. ScL Res.)

FlowSim/FlowRisk - A Code System for Studying Risk Associated with Material ProcessFlows

AM. Kaufman (LLNL)

046 Methods for Uncertainty Analysis (I)Chair: J. Devooght, U. Libre Bruxelles

A New Approach to the Uncertainty Evaluation in Risk AssessmentP. Cecchella, M. Mazzini (U. Pisa)

Uses of Zero-One Sampling in Probabilistic Risk AssessmentA. Camp (SNL)

Coherent Sampling of Multiple Branch Event Tree QuestionsAC. Payne Jr., GJ>. Wyss (SNL)

Analysis of Extreme Top Event Frequency Percentiles Based on Fast Probability IntegrationB. Staple (SNL); F.E. Haskin (U. New Mexico)

047 Enhancing Safety Culture in Modern IndustryChair: J. Philley, NUS

Safety Culture: What is it, and How can it be Developed?D.S. Barnes, SA. Brearley (AEA Consultancy Services, UK)

Safety Culture and its Reflection in Job and Organizational Design: Total Safety ManagementG. Grote, C. Kunzler (ETH-Zentrum, Switzerland)

Assessing Organizational Impact on Reactor SafetyW.G. He (PLG)

Concept Safety Review of a Sociotechnical SystemG. Wells, C. Phnag (U. of Sheffield, England)

Managing Human Induced Risk Involving Technological Systems and ProcessesT.G. Ryan, L.T. Ostrom, D.I. Gertman (INEL)

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048 Risk Assessment of Industrial FacilitiesChair: N. Sankaran, UNOCAL

Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Los Alamos National Laboratory TA-55 PlutoniumFacility

M.K Sasser, D. Sanzo (LANL)

Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Butane Storage FacilityLJ?.S. Oliveira, J.DA. Netto, RA. Pinto (PRINCIPIA Ltda., Brazil); J.CA. Lima(PETROBRAS, Brazil)

049 External EventsChair: S.T. Khericha, INEL

Site-Wide Seismic Risk Model for Savannah River Site Nuclear FacilitiesS A Eiae, R.S. Shay (LATA); W.S. Durant (Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.)

Tornado Impact Analysis for Use in Quantitative Risk AssessmentsJ. Shah (Four Elements Ltd.)

Aircraft Crash Analysis of the Proposed Sizewell B Containment VesselY.F. Al-Obaid (PAAET, Kuwait)

050 Risk Management in DOE (III)Chair: R.R. Fullwood, BNL

Fully Integrated Risk ManagementRJ. Doyle, K Beierschmitt, (Battelle Pantex)

051 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant—Regulations, Methodology, Modeling andResults

Chair: D.R. Anderson, SNL

Organization of Performance Assessments Conducted for the Waste Isolation Pilot PlantJ.C. Helton (Arizona St. U); D.R. Anderson, M.G. Marietta (SNL)

Using Data and Information to Form Distributions of Model Parameters in StochasticSimulations of Performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

M.S. Tierney (SNL)

Modeling System Used for the Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant(WIPP)

M.G. Marietta, M.S. Tierney (SNL); J.C. Helton (Arizona St. U.)

Regulatory and Institutional Considerations in Performance Assessment for the WasteIsolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

DM. Anderson, M.G. Marietta (SNL)

052 Software Dependability (II)Chair: R. Mulvihill, PRC

The Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology: A Methodology for Assessing Embedded SystemSoftware Safety

C. Garrett, M. Yau, S. Guarro, G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

Determining the Prime Implicants for Multi-State Embedded SystemsE. J. Shields, G. Apostolakis, S£. Guarro (UCLA)

053 Expert Judgment in Assessment StudiesChair: MA. Cunningham, USNRC

An Application of ISP A: Sensitivity Analysis on Complex Engineering ProblemP. McClure, S. Clement, S. Ashbaugh (SAIC)

The Analysis of Competing Failure ModesR.M. Cooke (Delft U. Technol.)

Practical Problems in Aggregating Expert OpinionsJM. Booker, RM. Picard, MA. Meyer (LANL)

An Application of Expert Opinions Approach in Combining Measurement ResultsM. Haim, M. Jaeger, D. Tzidony (RAFAEL, Israel)

054 HRA, the Second Generation (I)Chair: P.C. Cacciabue, JRC

Some Thoughts on the Requirements for a Second Generation Human Reliability AssessmentProcess

AJ. Spurgin

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The Need for, and a Proposed Structure of, a Second Generation HRAG.W. Parry (NUS)

055 Instrumentation and Control ReliabilityChair: R. Roberts, Ultramar

Reliability-Based Design of a Safety-Critical Automation System - A Case StudyC.W. Carroll (Boeing); W. Dunn (USC); L. Doty, M. Hulet (NASA); M.V. Frank(Safety Factor Assoc.)

Safeguards Actuation Fault Tree AnalysisM. Cepin, M. Kozuh, B. Mavko (J. Stefan Inst.)

Reliability Assessment of Onsite Emergency Safety Buses at Operating Nuclear Power PlantsG. Martinez-Guridi, MA. Azarm (BNL)

Optimal Voting Logic of Hydrocarbon Gas Detectors Based on Field DataL. Bodsberg (SINTEF)

056 Risk CommunicationChair: RA. Bari, BNL

Risk Assessment - Working with Your ClientKG. Murphy, J.E. Fitzgerald, Jr. (DOE)

057 Resource Planning and Value-Impact ApplicationsChair: K. Klein, USDOE

Environment, Safety & Health Risk Management: Program Planning and Budget Decision-Making

F.E. Tooper (USDOE); JL. Von Herrmann (CYCLA)

Control Operator Overload: Identification and PreventionDA. Strobhar (Beville Eng.)

Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis of Enhanced Safety Features for Strategic NuclearWeapons at a Representative Location

DJt. Stephens, C.H. Hall, G.S. Holman, KF. Graham, T.F. Harvey, FJJ). Serduke(LLNL)

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058 Examples of PRA in Design DecisionsChair: B. Buchbinder, NASA

Examples of the Use of PSA in the Design Process and to Support Modifications at TwoResearch Reactors

DM. Johnson, D.C. Bley, J.C. Lin (PLG); C.T. Ramsey, MA. Linn (ORNL)

Risk Management and Corrective ActionsRA. Dykes, AA. Dykes (PLG); J.D. Blodgett (Hughes)

A Risk and Decision Analysis for Choosing Wind Tunnel Turbine Blade StrategiesM.V. Frank, SA. Epstein (Safety Factor Assoc.)

Investigation Into the Development of A Train-Level Probabilistic Risk AssessmentC.L. Smith, R.D. Fowler, LM Wolfram (INEL)

059 Use of PRA Models in Assessing Technologies and Device ApplicationsChair: M. Zentner, Westinghouse Hanford

The Use of Robotics and Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Environmental RestorationL.E. Cindel, G. Apostolakis (UCLA)

Risk Evaluation of Medical and Industrial Radiation DevicesE.D. Jones (LLNL), R£. Cunningham, PA. Raihbun (USNRC)

Integrated Systems Performance AssessmentCM Amos, SI>. Clement (SAIC)

060 HRA, the Second Generation (II)Chair: E. Holhtagel, Computer Resources Intl.

Reliability of Cognition, Context and Data for a Second Generation HRAE. Hollnagel (HRA, UK); P.C. Cacciabue (CECIJRC, Italy)

Elements Of A Model of Operator Problem Solving and Decision Making in AbnormalConditions

S-H. Shen, C. Smidts, A. Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Human Reliability Analysis Using Simulated Human ModelY. Fujita, I. Yanagisawa (MAPI, Japan); H. Sakuda (NUPEC/IHF, Japan)

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061 Transportation Risk (I)Chair: T. Altenbach, LLNL

The Cost of Human Error InterventionC.T. Bennett, W.W. Banks, E.D. Jones (LLNL)

Application of the DOE and NRC Nuclear Safety Policy to Transportation OperationsC.Y. Kimura (LLNL), GM. Sandquist (U. Utah)

Control of Risk from Explosives Stores Within Mod (UK)J. Connor, D. Hewkin (Ministry of Defence, UK)

062 Environmental Risk Management—WasteChair: C. Peabody, USDOE

The Role of Multimedia, Multi-Pathway Exposure Assessments in Risk-Based Regulations atCalifornia Hazardous Wastes Sites

T.E. McKone (LLNL), E.G. Butler, JJ. Wong (Calif. Dept. Toxic Substances Control)

Risk Analysis for New Nuclear Waste Sites - Will It Generate Public Acceptance?H. Inhaber (Westinghouse Savannah River)

063 Methods for Uncertainty Analysis (II)Chair: A. Camp, SNL

Development of Smart Searching Algorithms for Vulnerability and Uncertainty Analysis inProbabilistic Risk Assessments

AS. Benjamin (SNL)

Importance and Sensitivity Analysis in Assessing the System ReliabilityY.-F. Wu (Taiwan Power Co.), JD. Lewins (Cambridge U.)

Multiple Weight Stepwise RegressionJ. Atkins (UC Berkeley); J. Campbell (SNL)

A Software System for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Results fromComputer Models

B. Krzykacz, E. Hofer, M. Kloos (GRS)

IX

064 Risk Based PrioritizationChair: G.E. Cummings, LLNL

Prioritizing Risk-Reducing Activities: Integrating Risk Management Into Business PlanningD. Brooks (Arizona St. U)

An Integrated Resource Management System and the Risk-Based Prioritization Model in Useat Martin Marietta Energy Systems

M.I. Sparks (Martin Marietta)

Risk-Based Prioritization: A Comparison of ApproachesR.S. Strait (LLNL)

065 Meaning and Interpretation of ProbabilityChair: A. Mosleh, U. Maryland

The Meaning and Use of Probability in Probabilistic Safety AssessmentG.W. Parry (NUS)

Is Probability of Frequency Too Narrow?H.F. Martz (LANL)

On Bayesian Approaches of Parametric and Modeling UncertaintyJ.S. Wu (ASCA)

On The Objectivity of Subjective Theory of Probability for PSA ApplicationsA Mosleh (U. Maryland)

066 Cognitive Modeling and Simulation in Human Reliability AnalysisChair: Y. Fujita, Mitsubishi Atomic Pwr. Ind.

A Simulation Study of Errors of Commission in Nuclear AccidentsK-S. Hsueh (NUS); L. Soth (Commonwealth Ed.); A Mosleh (U. Maryland)

Simulating Operator Cognition for Risk Analysis: Current Models and CREWSIMVM Dang (MIT); N.O. Siu (INEL)

Quantification of Multiple Error Expressions in Following Emergency Operating Proceduresin Nuclear Power Plant Control Room

AP. Macwan, P.S. Wieringa (Delft U. Technol); A Mosleh (U. Maryland)

067 Comparative Risk Assessment of Complex Technological Systems (I)Chair: S. Haddad, New South Wales Govt.

Severe Accidents in Comparative Assessment of Energy Sources: Current Issues and ActualExperience Data

S. Hirschberg, C. Parlavantzas (P. Scherrer Inst., Switzerland)

An Analysis of Electricity Generation Health Risks: A United Kingdom PerspectiveDJ. Ball, L.RJ. Roberts, A.C.D. Simpson (U. East Anglia, England)

External Costs as an Indicator for Comparative Risk Assessment of Different Energy Systems- A Case Study for Comparing the Nuclear and the Coal Fuel Cycle

W. Krewitt, P. Mayerhofer, R. Friedrich, A. Grefimann (U. Stuttgart, Germany); M.Dreicer (CEPN, France)

The Use of Multi-Attribute Analysis for Comparing the Health and Environmental Impacts ofDifferent Fuel Cycles - A Feasibility Study for the Comparison Between Coal and NuclearFuel Cycles

M. Dreicer, P. Kuentzmann, T. Schneider (CEPN, France); W. Krewitt (U. Stuttgart,Germany)

068 Risk Assessment Failure Data EstimationChair: C. Fleming, PLG

Advanced Test Reactor Large LOCA Frequency EstimationS.T. Khericha (INEL); SA. Eide (LATA)

Component Failure Rate Comparison and Recommendations for Various Processing FluidsL.C. Cadwallader, J.N. Wilkinson (INEL); SA. Eide (LATA)

Application of Reliability-Centered-Maintenance to PRA Fault Tree Analysis for a BWRHPCI System

MA. Feltus, YA. Choi (Penn. St. U)

069 Waste Risk ManagementChair: B. Thompson, H.M. Insp. Pollution

The HMJP Research and Development Programme for Post-Closure Risk AssessmentB. Thompson (HMIP, UK)

XI

Risk Analysis In Regulation and Risk CommunicationSM. Steam (HMIP, UK)

Validation: What Should a Regulator Look for in a Safety Case?RJ>. Wilmot, DA. Galson (Galson Sciences, England)

Aspects of Review of a Proponent's Post-Closure Safety Assessment on Behalf of theRegulator

TJ. Sumerling (Safety Assessment Mgt); D. Read (WS Atkins ScL & Technol.)

070 Reactor PSA StudiesChair: M. Hitchler, Westinghouse Savannah Rvr.

Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Ignalina NPP, RBMK-1500G. Johansson (IPS); E. Shiverskly (IPE); E. Soderman (ES-Konsult)

Results and Insights from the Low Power and Shutdown Level 1 PRA of the Grand GulfNuclear Power Station

D.W. Whitehead, BJ). Staple, SX.Daniel (SNL); J. Darby (ScL &. Eng. Assoc); J.Yakle, S. Miller, J. Forester (SAIC)

Comparative Evaluation of the Performance of Advanced Semi-Passive Pressurized WaterReactors in the Loss of Offsite Power Event

M. Ouyang, M. Golay (MIT)

071 Accident PrecurssorsChair: V.M. Bier, U. Wise-Madison

Accident Sequence Precursor Methodology for Maritime SafetyLJIJ. Goossens (Delft U. Technol); C.C. Glansdorp (Marine Analytics)

Developing Organizational Safety Information System for Monitoring Potential DangersM. Tamuz (U. Texas)

The Performance of Precursor-Based EstimatorVM. Bier, W. Ti (U. Wise.)

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072 Aging Analysis: Methodology & ApplicationsChair: D.H. Johnson, PLG

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses in Aging Risk-Based PrioritizationsM. Hassan, S. Uryas'ev (BNL); W.E. Vesely (SAIC)

Bayesian Aging Analysis of Hanford Waste Storage Tank LeakW.G. He, S£. Rao (PLG); DM. MacFarlane (LANL)

Lifetime Prediction and Physical Asset ManagementR. Menich (Failure Analysis Assoc.)

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